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Old 01-23-2014, 01:02 PM   #26
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Lol, so stats produced by Advanced NFL Stats or Football Outsiders or Football Perspective are "flawed", but a spreadsheet put together by a guy on the Mane isn't? You can't really be this obtuse, can you?

As for Sabermetrics, are you aware that many MLB organizations are now spending millions of dollars using such advanced metrics? Are they the "credulous fans" you're referring to?

We get it, you don't like stats you don't/can't/won't understand. But it would be great if you'd stop spewing your ignorance in every thread where they come up.
Some guy?! SOME GUY?!

I'll have you know I read every one of MHM's Myspace blogs AND BroncosWarrior taught me everything he knows!
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Old 01-23-2014, 01:07 PM   #27
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I haven't "bought" anything from them. And nothing has been "debunked". Brian Burke destroyed and laughed in the face of the "debunking" I assume you're referring to.

Nobody here is calling these stats gospel, genius. But they're the best we've got, and better than any analysis you've brought to the table.
I just do not understand how you can support something so vehemently and not really know anything about it. I know you do not understand stats because you cannot even engage in a discussion about why using a multi-variant approach to study a football game is potentially flawed.

Look, you can believe whatever you want. Just donít go pushing on other people like its science or even a remotely acceptable academic discipline, - because it is not. Itís just a bunch of guys trying to use numbers to make you believe X is likely to occur. But numbers themselves do not get us to a conclusion and rather statistical interpretation is more about correct premises and valid reasoning than numbers. I could throw many site links at you claiming they have a formula for winning. In fact, Vegas are full of those guys and I bet you hear them on late night sports radio.
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Old 01-23-2014, 01:20 PM   #28
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I just do not understand how you can support something so vehemently and not really know anything about it. I know you do not understand stats because you cannot even engage in a discussion about why using a multi-variant approach to study a football game is potentially flawed.

Look, you can believe whatever you want. Just donít go pushing on other people like its science or even a remotely acceptable academic discipline, - because it is not. Itís just a bunch of guys trying to use numbers to make you believe X is likely to occur. But numbers themselves do not get us to a conclusion and rather statistical interpretation is more about correct premises and valid reasoning than numbers. I could throw many site links at you claiming they have a formula for winning. In fact, Vegas are full of those guys and I bet you hear them on late night sports radio.
Yeah, don't go pushing your discussion points on a discussion board!
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Old 01-23-2014, 01:34 PM   #29
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Well, you opened your account the exact same time when I disagreed with someone and suddenly jumped in to support their position. I mean really. Mods should ban this guy.....
I doubt your mods ban people for polite disagreement.

Have you read how FO generates their stats? The problems you point out seem to be more applicable to other statistical systems. FO analyzes each play individually, which allows them to provide football context. For example, gaining 4 on 3rd & 4 is graded much higher than gaining 4 on 3rd & 10.
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Old 01-23-2014, 01:34 PM   #30
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I just do not understand how you can support something so vehemently and not really know anything about it. I know you do not understand stats because you cannot even engage in a discussion about why using a multi-variant approach to study a football game is potentially flawed.

Look, you can believe whatever you want. Just donít go pushing on other people like its science or even a remotely acceptable academic discipline, - because it is not. Itís just a bunch of guys trying to use numbers to make you believe X is likely to occur. But numbers themselves do not get us to a conclusion and rather statistical interpretation is more about correct premises and valid reasoning than numbers. I could throw many site links at you claiming they have a formula for winning. In fact, Vegas are full of those guys and I bet you hear them on late night sports radio.
It's always nice to have your ignore list validated when someone on it gets owned as purely as they have here.
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Old 01-23-2014, 02:20 PM   #31
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Stats won't mean a thing

I think it will boil down to what Denver does on 1st and 2nd down. If they manage to stay in 3rd and 3 or less they will have great success

Get into 3rd and 6 or longer that favors the SEA defense
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Old 01-23-2014, 02:38 PM   #32
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It would be interesting to see the results of your analysis so post it if you do it.

The notable thing about those FO stats is that they show that Denver's O, and Seattle's D, were great from start to finish. They also show that Seattle's O declined slightly at the end of the season, whereas Denver's D improved a good amount.
This is what I'm most interested in. The trend. Who really cares what our average was on D for the year. We lost 75% of our Defensive starters early on. It's taken all season to rebuild our starting lineup on the fly. We would have never survived this kind of decimation without having an Offense putting up Star Wars numbers.

IMO this should be the biggest story of the entire Super Bowl. How our D overcame everything they did to become a solid unit propelling us into the Super Bowl.

We entered the playoffs with only two preseason starters in their starting positions. How is this not a national storyline during Super Bowl week yet?
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Old 01-23-2014, 05:03 PM   #33
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For sure.

Seattle was 0.7 ppg better than the next best defense.

Denver was 10.1 ppg better than the next best offense.
Seriously, that's a monumental difference. The Seahags are not even a full point better then the next best defense. WOW. And we are over 10 points better then the next offense.

Don't think we'll see many Seahag fans talking much in this post after this little nugget of info is shown. Good work.

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Old 01-23-2014, 05:12 PM   #34
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I haven't "bought" anything from them. And nothing has been "debunked". Brian Burke destroyed and laughed in the face of the "debunking" I assume you're referring to.

Nobody here is calling these stats gospel, genius. But they're the best we've got, and better than any analysis you've brought to the table.
You have absolutely zero understanding of the garbage "advanced stats" you constantly post. It's hilarious and kind of sad at the same time.
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Old 01-23-2014, 05:18 PM   #35
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I just do not understand...
Clearly you don't, because you have your opinion and you won't open your eyes and mind to anything contrary to it. For example, you talk about how worthless advanced metrics are and then when I point out how professional sports organizations (particularly in baseball) are using them extensively and more and more frequently to gain competitive advantage you completely ignore it. As if you know more than them!

I'm not "pushing" anything on anyone. But these stats and metrics and just one of many ways to analyze sports and players. They aren't always right, and they aren't gospel. Nobody, including me, said they are. What they are, however, is objective. Unlike opinions like yours. They're also evidence based, unlike anything you've posted.
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Old 01-23-2014, 05:25 PM   #36
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Don't think we'll see many Seahag fans talking much in this post after this little nugget of info is shown. Good work.

Here is another post, and it proves you wrong!

But seriously, it would be a huge waste of time to try to out-stat another team's fan base. Stats rarely convince anyone, and are interpreted correctly even more rarely. Also, this thread has been more about collusion with the enemy than a fight with the enemy...I'm the only Seahawks fan who has posted, and I tried to help. If I must be negative, then: I hope my collusion makes someone feel dirty!
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Old 01-23-2014, 05:35 PM   #37
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Here is another post, and it proves you wrong!

But seriously, it would be a huge waste of time to try to out-stat another team's fan base. Stats rarely convince anyone, and are interpreted correctly even more rarely. Also, this thread has been more about collusion with the enemy than a fight with the enemy...I'm the only Seahawks fan who has posted, and I tried to help. If I must be negative, then: I hope my collusion makes someone feel dirty!
There's only 1 way to interpret the stat Rev put up. It simply is what it is. You can take any stats about TOP, Yards, Penalties, Turnovers, yada yada yada and spin them different ways. The ONLY stat that truly counts at the end of each game is the score. Your defense allowed a whopping .7 points less then the next best. That is a FACT and it has only 1 interpretation. Our offense has score 10.1 points more then the next offense. Again, simple fact.
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Old 01-23-2014, 07:05 PM   #38
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By interpretation I mean using stats to show how they affect win/loss percentage in a hypothetically large sample size between the Seahawks & Broncos. That is much harder to do for many reasons. All you did was restate the stats; that's only an interpretation in the most legalistic sense.
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Old 01-23-2014, 07:28 PM   #39
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Seriously, that's a monumental difference...
It is. But it's perhaps more useful to look at the overall picture, both O and D. Looking at the regular season only, Denver's point differential was 207 (NFL best) and Seattle's was 186 (2nd best). So, Denver won by an average of 12.9 points, Seattle by an average of 11.6 points. But, since there are more variables to analyze than just scoring, at the end of the day this really doesn't tell us all that much other than that Denver and Seattle are really good. Which is where the advanced metrics that that some people seem to hate so much, and be so afraid of, can come in to play.
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Old 01-23-2014, 07:52 PM   #40
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Well I just realized how long it would take to take all the numbers out and re-rank everyone.

I am on the last Dark Tower book and I will probably read all night.
Get that one done and beware the dandelo

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