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Old 11-18-2013, 09:41 PM   #1
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Default We need to at least split these next 2 games (@NE, @KC)

So these next two weeks will have some huge playoff implications, but if we can win at least one of these next two, it will be a boon. Here's why.

Assume KC beats SD this week (which isn't a lock that they will. SD is still mathematically in it, and they can beat teams they should lose to.)

Scenario 1: We beat NE and lose at KC. In this scenario our head-to-head record with KC would be split, but our SOS wins would be better. KC would still need to lose one more, but their remaining schedule is tough. If they drop just one more, and we win out, we would lock up the division. Also in this instance, if KC stumbles and NE wins out, we hold the tie-breaker for the number 1 seed.

Scenario 2.: We lose to New England and Beat KC. The loss the Panthers is huge because they have three losses to our 1. So even if they beat us, we're still a game ahead. So if we go into KC and beat them, that's a lock on the tie breaker the rest of the way. KC would need to finish better than us, and NE would need to match our record.

In either case, we would still keep a game lead over not just New England but the Colts, who also beat us head to head. That number 1 seed is very much still in contention for four teams.

Obviously winning both is the preferred option, but it will be very difficult. KC is amazing in December in their own house. Belichick is very difficult to beat coming off a loss - even with a short week. Remaining schedules are as follows for the top four teams vying for the number 1 seed (I've bolded the likely "challenging" teams to each franchise):

Chiefs:

vs San Diego
vs Denver
@ Washington
@Oakland
vs Indianapolis
@San Diego

Patriots:

vs Denver
@ Houston
vs Cleveland
@ Miami
@ Baltimore
vs Buffalo

Colts:

@ Arizona
vs Tennessee
@ Cincinnati
vs Houston
@ Kansas City
vs Jacksonville

Broncos:

@ New England
@ Kansas City
vs Tennessee
vs San Diego
@ Houston
@ Oakland

Denver has the hardest stretch of games here, but they definitely have the easiest go the last half of the season.

Bottom line is we need to find a way to win at least one of these next two games. If we drop both, we could be looking at a very win-expensive wild card.
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Old 11-18-2013, 09:45 PM   #2
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I like our last 4 and Houston is downright God awful right now. They should play the Falcons to see who has been a bigger disappoint then any other "playoff" team. This game is huge for us on Sunday. Even though they are not a division rival, going 3-0 and into KC is what you can ask for seeing that we beat @ Chargers and Chiefs. I can see Chiefs losing at least 2 more games.

Cliff notes for Denver: Win next two and we will be rolling into the playoffs as #1 seed and some needed rest Week 18.
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Old 11-18-2013, 09:50 PM   #3
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I agree that at least getting a split would be a great thing. Going into this 3 game stretch, I really felt that if the Broncos went 2-1, that would be a really good thing. 1-2, not so good, but 0-3 would have really sucked. That's why last night's game was so important.

Beat the Pats and they would have a chance at sweeping the three games and pretty much locking up the conference. But a split will have them in a good position.
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Old 11-18-2013, 09:50 PM   #4
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IMO, you want to win both of the next 2 but winning at KC would be more important. Win both of them however, man talk about being in the driver seat. You could definitely start to spell some guys in the last game or 2 depending on how KC and NE finish.
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Old 11-18-2013, 09:52 PM   #5
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need to beat KC and take care of business down the stretch. beating NE next week would be icing on the regular season cake. but the key game it KC at Camarohead.
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Old 11-18-2013, 09:54 PM   #6
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Nice breakdown -- thanks for posting.

In a weird way, I think the best thing for the Denver Broncos might be to drop both of these games and be the 5th seed with a 13-3 record. The Broncos (in general) and Manning (in particular) tend to play very tight and conservative when they're favored. What this team needs is a go-for-broke, throw-caution-to-the-wind philosophy to get them firing on all cylinders. Playing on the road as a wild-card team might be just what the doctor ordered.

Plus, it'll complete the parallel of this team with the 1995-1998 Denver Broncos squads:

1995-1998 Denver Broncos
1995: 8-8 (missed playoffs)
1996: 13-3 (#1 seed, but upset in playoffs in divisional round)
1997: 12-4 (#5 seed, won four straight road games and Superbowl)
1998: 14-2 (#1 seed, won Superbowl)

2011-2014 Denver Broncos
2011: 8-8 (#4 seed in a terrible conference, Tebowed our way into a playoff win but lost in divisional round)
2012: 13-3 (#1 seed, but upset in playoffs in divisional round)
2013: TBD
2014: TBD

Last edited by BowlenBall; 11-18-2013 at 10:00 PM..
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Old 11-18-2013, 10:00 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by BroncosfanGuy View Post
need to beat KC and take care of business down the stretch. beating NE next week would be icing on the regular season cake. but the key game it KC at Camarohead.

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Old 11-18-2013, 10:03 PM   #8
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If Denver wants a bye, then yeah they need a win in one of these two games. Can't afford to potentially be two games back with 4 to go.

Key game would seem to be KC, but if the Chiefs did lose to SD and Denver did beat New England, that would make the significance of the KC game much less
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Old 11-18-2013, 10:05 PM   #9
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ha ha. fantastic. rep.
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Old 11-18-2013, 10:15 PM   #10
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Narrowhead.

Camarohead.

I'm giggling my ass off right now.... rep all around.
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Old 11-18-2013, 10:21 PM   #11
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Still think KC drops 3 more games this season.
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Old 11-18-2013, 10:31 PM   #12
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Everytime I see that concrete monstrosity, I realize why it is so loud. It is full of depressed, unemployed, hillbillies, who have to sit in this ****hole on Sundays and go home to their double wide.

It just destroys their soul.
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Old 11-18-2013, 10:32 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroncosfanGuy View Post
need to beat KC and take care of business down the stretch. beating NE next week would be icing on the regular season cake. but the key game it KC at Camarohead.
It may actually not make a big difference. It's possible by the time we play the game, the Chiefs have more at stake then the Broncos do when they play each other.
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Old 11-18-2013, 10:41 PM   #14
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The NE loss gives us just a little breathing room. It sort of makes it a must win for them, but facing a pissed off Brady team is not without some problems.

If we only split the next two I want the win in KC. Actually that is more important
and also probably the easiest goal. NE can score 30 on anyone. KC may get 20 -24 but won't get more than that even with TOs, and also they are thinking they will do better just cause of their fan noise and home crowd in KC. It isn't going to make their offense better though .

We will need to have a better game offensively than last night, but I still think we win there by 10.

The best result is to win both.

1. Beat NE it serves them notice their team is not assured of a 1 or 2 seed ( Cinncy tied right now).

2. It also will demoralize the Chiefs ( and their fans) who are counting on a NE win next week to put pressure on Denver the week after. they aren't even considering that they might lose to SD. Of course if SD beats them also it would be icing, but Denver controls their own destiny. and it's unlikely that SD wins in KC. Chief fans know they need to have the division title to have any shot at a playoff win.


So , of all the possible scenarios I think it is best to just win the next 2 and then see where things stand.
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Old 11-19-2013, 04:44 AM   #15
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I think NE game is bigger because they are the only threat in the AFC to Denver. Denver can beat NE and lose to KC and would still be in the drivers seat for 1 seed. KC will drop a couple more games I think.
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Old 11-19-2013, 04:49 AM   #16
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Win 'em both and put the money in the bank.
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Old 11-19-2013, 05:36 AM   #17
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Regardless of outcomes of the next two games, based on Opponent and location, we should get a preview of how playoff ready the Broncos are. Most likely we are going to play one of these 2 teams again in the playoffs. So even going 0-2 with both being on the Road, the Broncos should be prepared to travel strong (if some how 13-3 is a WC spot) and win of the road or, have one of these teams come to Denver and return the loss when it hurts more.

I think this stretch is where John Fox is missed a little more.
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Old 11-19-2013, 05:57 AM   #18
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I'm sitting here asking myself if a playoff game in the warm confines of Lucas oil Stadium is the worst thing. We get a duder in the first round then play an inferior Colts team. Its going to be a cold winter boys. Honestly, I dont care who we play. I just want everyone to stay healthy.
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Old 11-19-2013, 06:05 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmz313 View Post
Regardless of outcomes of the next two games, based on Opponent and location, we should get a preview of how playoff ready the Broncos are. Most likely we are going to play one of these 2 teams again in the playoffs. So even going 0-2 with both being on the Road, the Broncos should be prepared to travel strong (if some how 13-3 is a WC spot) and win of the road or, have one of these teams come to Denver and return the loss when it hurts more.

I think this stretch is where John Fox is missed a little more.
The local news showed him on the big screen at the team meeting the other day at Dove Valley. I'm sure he's involved somewhat, electronically.
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Old 11-19-2013, 06:17 AM   #20
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If we can win at kc, even if we lose next week, I believe we are in the drivers seat needing no help to get the top seed. That's the one I really want.
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Old 11-19-2013, 06:29 AM   #21
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We sweep. Sweep the leg.


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Old 11-19-2013, 06:29 AM   #22
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We sweep. Sweep the leg.


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Old 11-19-2013, 06:44 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaylore View Post
So these next two weeks will have some huge playoff implications, but if we can win at least one of these next two, it will be a boon. Here's why.

Assume KC beats SD this week (which isn't a lock that they will. SD is still mathematically in it, and they can beat teams they should lose to.)

Scenario 1: We beat NE and lose at KC. In this scenario our head-to-head record with KC would be split, but our SOS wins would be better. KC would still need to lose one more, but their remaining schedule is tough. If they drop just one more, and we win out, we would lock up the division. Also in this instance, if KC stumbles and NE wins out, we hold the tie-breaker for the number 1 seed. Underlined is not exactly true. If their loss is to wash, they win on conference record.

Scenario 2.: We lose to New England and Beat KC. The loss the Panthers is huge because they have three losses to our 1. So even if they beat us, we're still a game ahead. So if we go into KC and beat them, that's a lock on the tie breaker the rest of the way. KC would need to finish better than us, and NE would need to match our record.

In either case, we would still keep a game lead over not just New England but the Colts, who also beat us head to head. That number 1 seed is very much still in contention for four teams.

Obviously winning both is the preferred option, but it will be very difficult. KC is amazing in December in their own house. Belichick is very difficult to beat coming off a loss - even with a short week. Remaining schedules are as follows for the top four teams vying for the number 1 seed (I've bolded the likely "challenging" teams to each franchise):

Chiefs:

vs San Diego
vs Denver
@ Washington
@Oakland
vs Indianapolis
@San Diego

Patriots:

vs Denver
@ Houston
vs Cleveland
@ Miami
@ Baltimore
vs Buffalo

Colts:

@ Arizona
vs Tennessee
@ Cincinnati
vs Houston
@ Kansas City
vs Jacksonville

Broncos:

@ New England
@ Kansas City
vs Tennessee
vs San Diego
@ Houston
@ Oakland

Denver has the hardest stretch of games here, but they definitely have the easiest go the last half of the season.

Bottom line is we need to find a way to win at least one of these next two games. If we drop both, we could be looking at a very win-expensive wild card.
Minor nit pick
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Old 11-19-2013, 06:49 AM   #24
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Quote:
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...we should get a preview of how playoff ready the Broncos are.
Yup. This is a big game from that perspective. Prove you can beat an elite team under the bright lights.
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Old 11-19-2013, 07:06 AM   #25
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honestly, I'd be impressed if KC goes 3-3 or better the rest of the way. Lots of division games left, and as we all know, divisional games are tough to predict. @ Oakland and @ SD could both be losses. Washington looks like they are imploding, but Indy can hang with anyone.

If KC doesn't start getting pressure or defensive scores, any team on their schedule can hang just enough points on that D to keep Alex Smith from outscoring them.

if we lose both of our next games and win the last 4, we are 13-3... division crown and first round bye are both still in play. obviously, we wouldn't be controlling our own destiny if that were to happen, but I really doubt NE or KC close out the season by winning 6 straight.
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