The Orange Mane -  a Denver Broncos Fan Community  

Go Back   The Orange Mane - a Denver Broncos Fan Community > Orange Mane Discussion > Orange Mane Central Discussion
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Chat Room Mark Forums Read



Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-11-2013, 04:52 PM   #201
yerner
Ring of Famer
 
yerner's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Charlottesville VA
Posts: 3,936
Default

45-17. Von rip's off Ally Smith's arm and shoves it up Andi Reid's fat ass.
yerner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 04:53 PM   #202
Requiem
~~~
 
Requiem's Avatar
 
~ ~ ~

Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Earth Division
Posts: 23,073

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Princes of Tara
Default

Aw, KC fans still arguing statistics. Hehe.
Requiem is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 04:57 PM   #203
KCStud
Ring of Famer
 
KCStud's Avatar
 
AmeriStanzi!

Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 5,711

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic2 View Post
How about the offenses your "best defense" have faced? Haven't even faced starting caliber QBs.

Keep acting stupid
Uh, Philly is the number 1 ranked offense in the league. Dallas also is 4th in PPG.

We did pretty well against them.
KCStud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 04:58 PM   #204
KCStud
Ring of Famer
 
KCStud's Avatar
 
AmeriStanzi!

Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 5,711

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

Nah you're right DrunkenBronco. Chiefs defense is worst in NFL history. They're gonna give up 100 points to Manning.

I mean, why even show up, right?
KCStud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:00 PM   #205
Drunken.Broncoholic2
Pickled in orange & blue
 
Drunken.Broncoholic2's Avatar
 
OnLyNiNjAsCaNrEaDtHiSQuOtE

Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Carmel, Ca
Posts: 5,154

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by KCStud View Post
Uh, Philly is the number 1 ranked offense in the league. Dallas also is 4th in PPG.

We did pretty well against them.
So are those offensive stats skewed because Denver's defense played them? Drop 40- 50 points on any defense and their ranks turn sour
Drunken.Broncoholic2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:00 PM   #206
razorwire77
Tapenade Swagga
 
razorwire77's Avatar
 
"Not too shabby."

Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Albuquerque
Posts: 4,384

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Bradley Roby
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by KCStud View Post
Uh, Philly is the number 1 ranked offense in the league. Dallas also is 4th in PPG.

We did pretty well against them.
Do you really think Philly's offense is even in the same stratosphere of what your defense is going to see on Sunday night?
razorwire77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:00 PM   #207
Drunken.Broncoholic2
Pickled in orange & blue
 
Drunken.Broncoholic2's Avatar
 
OnLyNiNjAsCaNrEaDtHiSQuOtE

Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Carmel, Ca
Posts: 5,154

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by KCStud View Post
Nah you're right DrunkenBronco. Chiefs defense is worst in NFL history. They're gonna give up 100 points to Manning.

I mean, why even show up, right?
They haven't shown up for 40 years. Why start now?
Drunken.Broncoholic2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:05 PM   #208
rolandftw
Ring of Famer
 

Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,143

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TopekaRoy View Post
And yet, they STILL gave up 38, 21 and 20 points; all more than the Chiefs have given up in ANY game this year.
Team gave up those points, but most of that wasn't on the defense. Turnovers are an issue for Denver, but if they take care of the ball, hard to see KC's offense putting up 20 points on their own.
rolandftw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:06 PM   #209
Gutless Drunk
Ring of Famer
 
Gutless Drunk's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 3,558

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by KCStud View Post
Uh, Philly is the number 1 ranked offense in the league
No, they are not. Because the bye's fall on different weeks you have to sort stats on a per game basis or else you look like an idiot. Here let me help you-

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/te...etYardsPerGame

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/te...lPointsPerGame
Gutless Drunk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:07 PM   #210
Drunken.Broncoholic2
Pickled in orange & blue
 
Drunken.Broncoholic2's Avatar
 
OnLyNiNjAsCaNrEaDtHiSQuOtE

Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Carmel, Ca
Posts: 5,154

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

If josh Gordon can run wild I have confidence the broncos WRs will be productive Sunday.
Drunken.Broncoholic2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:11 PM   #211
ZONA
Ring of Famer
 
ZONA's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Posts: 9,894

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Chris Harris
Default

I'm not interested in what KC fans have to say before the game. It will be fun hearing the plethora of complaints as to why the Chiefs got beat down so bad. Even with a few turn over's I think we win this game by a TD+. If we don't have any turnovers, it's not even close, and Chiefs fans know that deep down inside. They sure as hell won't come in here and admit that but they know it's true.
ZONA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:22 PM   #212
SonOfLe-loLang
Young Buck
 
SonOfLe-loLang's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 19,167

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Thunder (RIP)
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutless Drunk View Post
No, they are not. Because the bye's fall on different weeks you have to sort stats on a per game basis or else you look like an idiot. Here let me help you-

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/te...etYardsPerGame

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/te...lPointsPerGame
Plus, Philly gave them a bunch of turnovers too. It was an incredibly ugly game. And Tony Romo was playing with pretty badly bruised ribs (and this showed as the game wore on).

Obviously the chiefs have a good D, but he basically refuses to give our offense credit despite our record breaking pace.
SonOfLe-loLang is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:24 PM   #213
SonOfLe-loLang
Young Buck
 
SonOfLe-loLang's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 19,167

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Thunder (RIP)
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TopekaRoy View Post
I never bothered to crunch those numbers, but the Browns have a pretty good defense and with the Bills (23-13) the Chiefs were right at their averages (from two weeks ago) of 24 ppg and 12.8 papg.



True, your defense is better with Von than without him, but not that much better. In 3 games he has 13 tackles, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble which the Broncos didn't recover. I do expect him to get better in the coming weeks, though.
Our D has been significantly better since the return of Von and Woodyard.
SonOfLe-loLang is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:28 PM   #214
Drunken.Broncoholic2
Pickled in orange & blue
 
Drunken.Broncoholic2's Avatar
 
OnLyNiNjAsCaNrEaDtHiSQuOtE

Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Carmel, Ca
Posts: 5,154

Adopt-a-Bronco:
None
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutless Drunk View Post

Ya this is "not much better"


I sure hope broncos fans on chiefs websites represent better than clowns that spawn new bandwagon chief profiles here.
Drunken.Broncoholic2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:31 PM   #215
SonOfLe-loLang
Young Buck
 
SonOfLe-loLang's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 19,167

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Thunder (RIP)
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TopekaRoy View Post
Greetings from the Heartland, Broncos fans!

I'm a life-long Bears fan (Thanks for Jay Cutler, btw) who moved to Topeka, KS about 15 years ago. I have since "assimilated to the culture" and adopted the Chiefs as my favorite AFC team.

I'm not here to talk trash. I just wanted to get a Broncos fan perspective on things and a friend of mine who is a huge Broncos fan (other than that he's a really good guy! ) told me this was the best Broncos forum.

I came here looking for info on Manning's injury and figured you guys would be on top of things. I'm glad to hear that Manning will probably start because, win or lose, I want my Chiefs to face the best, if for no other reason than to get a feel for where they stand vs. quality competition.

Let's get back to talking about this week's game. Here are my thoughts:

I see a lot of you predicting a blowout and I really don't think you guys are taking seriously just how good the Chiefs defense is. Some of you have focused on yardage allowed, so let's start there. Yards don't determine who wins and who loses. Points do. True, the Chiefs have given up a lot of yards and big plays, but they have done the best job in the NFL of keeping opponents out of the end zone. There are two big reasons for this. They lead the NFL in forced turnovers and turnover margin and they lead the NFL in sacks. They will need to generate both turnovers and sacks if they have any chance of beating Denver on Sunday.

Peyton's banged up ankles will be a liability, but he was never that "mobile" to begin with and he gets rid of the ball so fast, that it will be hard to get to him anyway. The loss of Clady is going to make it difficult for the Denver o-line to protect Manning from Poe, Houston and Hali and, while they might not get many sacks, I expect them to hurry and knock down Manning quite a bit and that will take it's toll as the game wears on.

I expect the Chiefs to do their best to keep Denver's offense off the field by running the ball a lot and using short screen passes for 4 or 5 yards per down. This will only work if they can convert 3rd downs and the Chiefs have struggled with that lately. I've seen some good things from the Chiefs offense, but Bowe, McCluster and Charles have been dropping too many wide open passes. They will really have to focus this week.

I love to crunch numbers. Stats are a good indicator of what will happen, but they are certainly no guarantee of results. Look at how many upsets there were in the NFL in the past two weeks. That's why they play the game.

Now, the Chiefs are giving up an NFL best 12.3 points per game. To put that in to perspective we need to look at the offenses they have played against. Chiefs opponents have averaged 24.5 PPG this season, so the Chiefs are holding their opponents to 50.2% of their season averages.

By contrast, the Broncos are allowing an average of 26.4 PPG against teams that have a cumulative average of 21.8 ppg, so the Broncos are allowing teams to score 121.3% of their averages overall.

The Broncos are averaging 41.2 ppg and the Chiefs are averaging 23.9 ppg. It looks like an easy win for the Broncos, doesn't it? But let's factor in the defenses.

Chiefs 23.9 ppg X 1.213 = 29 points
Broncos 41.2 ppg X 50.2 = 20.7 points

Now, let's factor in home field advantage (3 points) and add 1.5 points for Denver and subtract 1.5 for KC.

Chiefs 27.5
Broncos 22.2

Rounding off...

Chiefs 27
Broncos 22

That would be my mathematically predicted score, but it doesn't take other factors into account. Let's analyze those numbers for a second. The Chiefs are averaging about 24 ppg so an extra fg doesn't seem to be out of the realm of the reasonably possible against a team that allowed the Jaguars to score 17 points in one quarter. 22 for the Broncos seems too low but the Chargers held them to 28 and the Chiefs have a much better defense than San Diego does, so I don't think that is too big a stretch.

Other factors to consider: The Chiefs, like most teams this time of the year, have been really banged up, including significant injuries to star players, Dwayne Bowe, Jamaal Charles and Brandon Flowers, among others. The bye week will allow these guys to heel and hopefully play better than they have the last couple of weeks. Andy Reid led teams are 13-1 in games following a bye.

Much has been made of the Chiefs weak schedule but the Broncos have only played one team with a winning record this year, the Colts, to whom they lost. The Chiefs and Broncos have played 5 common opponents and the Chiefs have won by more points in 3 of those match-ups (Jaguars, Giants and Raiders).

This game will be lower scoring and much closer than many people think. It will probably come down to one turnover or one big mistake determining the outcome. I hope the Broncos players are underestimating the Chiefs as much as some of their fans are. My final prediction:

Chiefs 23
Broncos 20
Nice write up, but unfortunately there are way too many variables you're leaving out ... mostly injury, and the fact that all football games aren't created equal.

My guess is this game comes down to who ****s up the least. So hopefully we stop ****ing up.
SonOfLe-loLang is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:36 PM   #216
Jetmeck
Not a Chief's board
 
Jetmeck's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 6,291
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chiefsteak View Post
Painnn

Also, Chiefs 27, Broncos 24
Your pathetic O won't score ten points..........
Jetmeck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:38 PM   #217
mhgaffney
Ring of Famer
 

Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 10,963
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmhargrove View Post
We play a conservative gameplan to protect Manning, but the Chiefs still get a defensive TD (Decker fumble).

27-16 Broncos.
Decker? Who told you this? Did G-d whisper in your ear?

Typical OM jerk. Decker is fine.
mhgaffney is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:40 PM   #218
Jetmeck
Not a Chief's board
 
Jetmeck's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 6,291
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by KCStud View Post
Nah you're right DrunkenBronco. Chiefs defense is worst in NFL history. They're gonna give up 100 points to Manning.

I mean, why even show up, right?

You have to score to win and you will be lucky to sniff the end zone all the while your defense slows our O some...........

Reagardless you know the truth..........

Without multiple lucky bounces your team is toast
Jetmeck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:42 PM   #219
SoCalBronco
Nixonite
 
SoCalBronco's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Arcadia, CA
Posts: 35,476

Adopt-a-Bronco:
D.J. Williams
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mhgaffney View Post
Decker? Who told you this? Did G-d whisper in your ear?

Typical OM jerk. Decker is fine.
He's a Zionist though.

He's secretly working to undermine the team. Manning secretly found this out after the game, Gaff. That's why he looked all pissed in that pic.

Decker s girlfriend/wife screams Bilderberg. The good looks are just to throw people off.
__________________


Stacy Coley.....Speed Kills!
SoCalBronco is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:46 PM   #220
Archer81
Optimum Homo
 
Archer81's Avatar
 
Tactical Neck.

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Colorado
Posts: 22,464
Default

38-19, Denver.


Archer81 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:50 PM   #221
WolfpackGuy
Call me, "Maybe"
 
WolfpackGuy's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Delaware
Posts: 6,733
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang View Post
Our D has been significantly better since the return of Von and Woodyard.
It's amazing how many people are STILL hanging their hats on that Cowboys game to bash the defense.

No Von or Champ then lose Woodyard, Ayers, and Harris for a majority of the game.

Hell, even the Colts game wasn't that bad considering their offense started at midfield or better several drives in a row in the early going.
WolfpackGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:53 PM   #222
Hamrob
All-American!
 
Hamrob's Avatar
 
All-American!

Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: DFW
Posts: 5,459

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Peyton Manning
Default

If Manning were healthy and we had Clady....I think this would be a huge blowout in our favor.

But, with Chris Clark on his blindside....and Manning being hobbled...the Chiefs will have a shot.

I still think we score in the 30's and win 35-17.

**News to both ourselves and the Chiefs fans.....neither of us have really beaten anyone of note yet. This will be the first win worth noting for either team. Our best wins were probably at Dallas and at SD. The Chiefs best wins were probably Dallas at home and at Tenn.
Hamrob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 05:59 PM   #223
ZONA
Ring of Famer
 
ZONA's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Posts: 9,894

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Chris Harris
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TopekaRoy View Post
Greetings from the Heartland, Broncos fans!

I'm a life-long Bears fan (Thanks for Jay Cutler, btw) who moved to Topeka, KS about 15 years ago. I have since "assimilated to the culture" and adopted the Chiefs as my favorite AFC team.

I'm not here to talk trash. I just wanted to get a Broncos fan perspective on things and a friend of mine who is a huge Broncos fan (other than that he's a really good guy! ) told me this was the best Broncos forum.

I came here looking for info on Manning's injury and figured you guys would be on top of things. I'm glad to hear that Manning will probably start because, win or lose, I want my Chiefs to face the best, if for no other reason than to get a feel for where they stand vs. quality competition.

Let's get back to talking about this week's game. Here are my thoughts:

I see a lot of you predicting a blowout and I really don't think you guys are taking seriously just how good the Chiefs defense is. Some of you have focused on yardage allowed, so let's start there. Yards don't determine who wins and who loses. Points do. True, the Chiefs have given up a lot of yards and big plays, but they have done the best job in the NFL of keeping opponents out of the end zone. There are two big reasons for this. They lead the NFL in forced turnovers and turnover margin and they lead the NFL in sacks. They will need to generate both turnovers and sacks if they have any chance of beating Denver on Sunday.

Peyton's banged up ankles will be a liability, but he was never that "mobile" to begin with and he gets rid of the ball so fast, that it will be hard to get to him anyway. The loss of Clady is going to make it difficult for the Denver o-line to protect Manning from Poe, Houston and Hali and, while they might not get many sacks, I expect them to hurry and knock down Manning quite a bit and that will take it's toll as the game wears on.

I expect the Chiefs to do their best to keep Denver's offense off the field by running the ball a lot and using short screen passes for 4 or 5 yards per down. This will only work if they can convert 3rd downs and the Chiefs have struggled with that lately. I've seen some good things from the Chiefs offense, but Bowe, McCluster and Charles have been dropping too many wide open passes. They will really have to focus this week.

I love to crunch numbers. Stats are a good indicator of what will happen, but they are certainly no guarantee of results. Look at how many upsets there were in the NFL in the past two weeks. That's why they play the game.

Now, the Chiefs are giving up an NFL best 12.3 points per game. To put that in to perspective we need to look at the offenses they have played against. Chiefs opponents have averaged 24.5 PPG this season, so the Chiefs are holding their opponents to 50.2% of their season averages.

By contrast, the Broncos are allowing an average of 26.4 PPG against teams that have a cumulative average of 21.8 ppg, so the Broncos are allowing teams to score 121.3% of their averages overall.

The Broncos are averaging 41.2 ppg and the Chiefs are averaging 23.9 ppg. It looks like an easy win for the Broncos, doesn't it? But let's factor in the defenses.

Chiefs 23.9 ppg X 1.213 = 29 points
Broncos 41.2 ppg X 50.2 = 20.7 points

Now, let's factor in home field advantage (3 points) and add 1.5 points for Denver and subtract 1.5 for KC.

Chiefs 27.5
Broncos 22.2

Rounding off...

Chiefs 27
Broncos 22

That would be my mathematically predicted score, but it doesn't take other factors into account. Let's analyze those numbers for a second. The Chiefs are averaging about 24 ppg so an extra fg doesn't seem to be out of the realm of the reasonably possible against a team that allowed the Jaguars to score 17 points in one quarter. 22 for the Broncos seems too low but the Chargers held them to 28 and the Chiefs have a much better defense than San Diego does, so I don't think that is too big a stretch.

Other factors to consider: The Chiefs, like most teams this time of the year, have been really banged up, including significant injuries to star players, Dwayne Bowe, Jamaal Charles and Brandon Flowers, among others. The bye week will allow these guys to heel and hopefully play better than they have the last couple of weeks. Andy Reid led teams are 13-1 in games following a bye.

Much has been made of the Chiefs weak schedule but the Broncos have only played one team with a winning record this year, the Colts, to whom they lost. The Chiefs and Broncos have played 5 common opponents and the Chiefs have won by more points in 3 of those match-ups (Jaguars, Giants and Raiders).

This game will be lower scoring and much closer than many people think. It will probably come down to one turnover or one big mistake determining the outcome. I hope the Broncos players are underestimating the Chiefs as much as some of their fans are. My final prediction:

Chiefs 23
Broncos 20
I don't understand how somebody can be a life long fan of a team and then adopt another just because they move somewhere else. I mean, I'm a life long die hard Broncos fan living in Arizona. It's cool if the Cards win and I'll root for them here and there but as far as going to another teams forum the the Cards would be playing against, nah, not that much interest at all. Hell I don't even watch half of the Cardinal games. And I've been in Phoenix longer then Bears fan has been in KC. There's no need to "assimilate to the culture". This is 2013 where the internet is alive and strong. There's direct tv and other mean to watch all the Bears game and even meet up groups where you can hang out with other Bears fans. Why in the hell would you give 2 cents about the Chiefs? Because they're winning? You haven't "assimilated", you're just riding the band wagon is all. Time to go back to your roots Mr and do your Bears thing and forget about these chump chiefs.
ZONA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 07:29 PM   #224
bpc
"Nemo Me Impune Lacessit"
 
bpc's Avatar
 
1 sword keeps another in the sheath

Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Northern California
Posts: 13,736

Adopt-a-Bronco:
TJ Ward
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TopekaRoy View Post
Greetings from the Heartland, Broncos fans!

I'm a life-long Bears fan (Thanks for Jay Cutler, btw) who moved to Topeka, KS about 15 years ago. I have since "assimilated to the culture" and adopted the Chiefs as my favorite AFC team.

I'm not here to talk trash. I just wanted to get a Broncos fan perspective on things and a friend of mine who is a huge Broncos fan (other than that he's a really good guy! ) told me this was the best Broncos forum.

I came here looking for info on Manning's injury and figured you guys would be on top of things. I'm glad to hear that Manning will probably start because, win or lose, I want my Chiefs to face the best, if for no other reason than to get a feel for where they stand vs. quality competition.

Let's get back to talking about this week's game. Here are my thoughts:

I see a lot of you predicting a blowout and I really don't think you guys are taking seriously just how good the Chiefs defense is. Some of you have focused on yardage allowed, so let's start there. Yards don't determine who wins and who loses. Points do. True, the Chiefs have given up a lot of yards and big plays, but they have done the best job in the NFL of keeping opponents out of the end zone. There are two big reasons for this. They lead the NFL in forced turnovers and turnover margin and they lead the NFL in sacks. They will need to generate both turnovers and sacks if they have any chance of beating Denver on Sunday.

Peyton's banged up ankles will be a liability, but he was never that "mobile" to begin with and he gets rid of the ball so fast, that it will be hard to get to him anyway. The loss of Clady is going to make it difficult for the Denver o-line to protect Manning from Poe, Houston and Hali and, while they might not get many sacks, I expect them to hurry and knock down Manning quite a bit and that will take it's toll as the game wears on.

I expect the Chiefs to do their best to keep Denver's offense off the field by running the ball a lot and using short screen passes for 4 or 5 yards per down. This will only work if they can convert 3rd downs and the Chiefs have struggled with that lately. I've seen some good things from the Chiefs offense, but Bowe, McCluster and Charles have been dropping too many wide open passes. They will really have to focus this week.

I love to crunch numbers. Stats are a good indicator of what will happen, but they are certainly no guarantee of results. Look at how many upsets there were in the NFL in the past two weeks. That's why they play the game.

Now, the Chiefs are giving up an NFL best 12.3 points per game. To put that in to perspective we need to look at the offenses they have played against. Chiefs opponents have averaged 24.5 PPG this season, so the Chiefs are holding their opponents to 50.2% of their season averages.

By contrast, the Broncos are allowing an average of 26.4 PPG against teams that have a cumulative average of 21.8 ppg, so the Broncos are allowing teams to score 121.3% of their averages overall.

The Broncos are averaging 41.2 ppg and the Chiefs are averaging 23.9 ppg. It looks like an easy win for the Broncos, doesn't it? But let's factor in the defenses.

Chiefs 23.9 ppg X 1.213 = 29 points
Broncos 41.2 ppg X 50.2 = 20.7 points

Now, let's factor in home field advantage (3 points) and add 1.5 points for Denver and subtract 1.5 for KC.

Chiefs 27.5
Broncos 22.2

Rounding off...

Chiefs 27
Broncos 22

That would be my mathematically predicted score, but it doesn't take other factors into account. Let's analyze those numbers for a second. The Chiefs are averaging about 24 ppg so an extra fg doesn't seem to be out of the realm of the reasonably possible against a team that allowed the Jaguars to score 17 points in one quarter. 22 for the Broncos seems too low but the Chargers held them to 28 and the Chiefs have a much better defense than San Diego does, so I don't think that is too big a stretch.

Other factors to consider: The Chiefs, like most teams this time of the year, have been really banged up, including significant injuries to star players, Dwayne Bowe, Jamaal Charles and Brandon Flowers, among others. The bye week will allow these guys to heel and hopefully play better than they have the last couple of weeks. Andy Reid led teams are 13-1 in games following a bye.

Much has been made of the Chiefs weak schedule but the Broncos have only played one team with a winning record this year, the Colts, to whom they lost. The Chiefs and Broncos have played 5 common opponents and the Chiefs have won by more points in 3 of those match-ups (Jaguars, Giants and Raiders).

This game will be lower scoring and much closer than many people think. It will probably come down to one turnover or one big mistake determining the outcome. I hope the Broncos players are underestimating the Chiefs as much as some of their fans are. My final prediction:

Chiefs 23
Broncos 20
All these box score numbers from this season, but no mention of the fact that the Chiefs have feasted, and barely pulled away from 4/5 backup QB's.

I don't want to sell the Chiefs defense short, but they have capitalized against some of the worst QB's in the league. Take for instance Tuel from Buffalo, their 3rd string QB, and UDFA. The guy looked all world against the Chiefs secondary and the Buffalo offense moved up and down at will. As much as you will hype the red zone defense, the fact is KC blew the coverage on the INT for a TD, Sean Smith completely let his guy go. That may work against UDFA, it will not work against Denver and Peyton. Manning is going to eat the defense's lunch. The secondary is going to be very stressed playing these WR's.

37-13 Denver Broncos beat-down of your "AFC" team.
bpc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 07:41 PM   #225
broncswin
God I love those Broncos
 
broncswin's Avatar
 
Bring back the hardware

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Broncos Fantasy Land
Posts: 2,188

Adopt-a-Bronco:
three amigos
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TopekaRoy View Post
And yet, they STILL gave up 38, 21 and 20 points; all more than the Chiefs have given up in ANY game this year.
When your up by large margins in games your d can get a little lax...hence most on this board are giving KC close to 20 in their score predictions.

Colts game was Von's first back...we played like pure horse **** and damn near stole a game we should have never been in.

Last edited by broncswin; 11-11-2013 at 07:44 PM..
broncswin is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes



Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 04:32 AM.


Denver Broncos