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Old 11-11-2013, 03:29 PM   #176
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No way we lose. We have collagen-lip karma carryover from the SD game....


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Old 11-11-2013, 03:36 PM   #177
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I actually really like your analysis here.
Thanks for the intelligent thoughtful response.

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However, I think that the Chiefs have been ripped up recently by some subpar offenses and QB's.
You are looking at yardage, not points. The Chiefs held the Browns to 17 and the Bills to 13. In fact the Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 in any games this year, How many teams have the Broncos held to 17 or less?

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We should be able to limit the productivity of the Chief's run game, and i'm not scared by their short passing game, especially if Nacho returns at safety.
That's a good possibility, especially if the Chiefs continue to drop wide open passes. I'm hoping they address that problem this week.The Broncos are number 1 against the run because most of the teams they have played were behind and forced to abandon the run. The Chargers ran the ball well and kept the game close for a while, but their defense couldn't compete. I don't think the Chiefs will fall behind like they did.

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The real indicator of this game is the ability of the Broncos O-line to protect against KC's pass rush (which I think is pretty solid). It will be interesting to see of we send Virgil green or Dreesen to the edges to help with the pass pro. if Manning has time, we will score 35+. If he is hurried, I could see our score as low as 20-23.
I absolutely agree that this will be key.

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it's an interesting matchup, and AFC West football hasn't been this exciting in a few years (since the Ladanian Tomlinson Chargers, and the Preist Holmes Chiefs before that).
It should be a really good game and I can't wait to see how it turns out.
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Old 11-11-2013, 03:43 PM   #178
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I respect that you offered this with class....but your numbers are flawed. There are no allowances for variables in regards to the offensive and defensive statistics. You did not adjust for defensive scores when using the PPG or either teams offense (which inflate the stats) or defense (which inflates the points allowed). There is no account in the like opponents analysis for the health of either team (for Example playing Jax with Henne and Blackmon or playing with Gabbert and no Blackmon).

and to wrap that up, it doesn't take into account individual match-ups. Strengths vs. Weaknesses. Numbers don't occur in a vacuum.
I may have oversimplified it a bit for the sake of time and space and look how long the post was anyway! Perhaps you would like to do the adjusted analysis and correct my numbers?

Like I said, the numbers are only an indicator but I think in general my analysis holds up. Points scored are based on a sampling against 9 different teams and points allowed are adjusted for these two specific teams, based on the competition they have faced.

Accounting for different players being in or out is hypothetical and very difficult to quantify with specific numbers.
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Old 11-11-2013, 03:48 PM   #179
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I may have oversimplified it a bit for the sake of time and space and look how long the post was anyway! Perhaps you would like to do the adjusted analysis and correct my numbers?

Like I said, the numbers are only an indicator but I think in general my analysis holds up. Points scored are based on a sampling against 9 different teams and points allowed are adjusted for these two specific teams, based on the competition they have faced.

Accounting for different players being in or out is hypothetical and very difficult to quantify with specific numbers.
Nothing hypothetical about having the 3 best defensive players off the field for several games. I guarantee you take off the top 3 chiefs defenders at once it ain't a 9-0 result.
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Old 11-11-2013, 03:49 PM   #180
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Accounting for different players being in or out is hypothetical and very difficult to quantify with specific numbers.
Microsoft Excel. There are functions that account for these things.
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Old 11-11-2013, 03:53 PM   #181
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He rolled out of the pocket a lot and threw on the run quite a bit
So you think that it is better for a QB to NOT run when facing a heavy rush. OH...like Keenum in his first game.

Most experienced nfl QBS will recognize a blitz coming and check to a different play. And Manning ( the QB the Chiefs face this week) also seems to have a knack of checking into a play that actually will take advantage of that blitz.

And it seems to me that Alex Smith also seems to roll out and run a lot when he is pressured. Have to hand him that. He won't just sit there and take a sack (like some of the QBs KC has faced ).
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Old 11-11-2013, 03:54 PM   #182
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Chiefs offense does not get credit for points scored by the defense or special teams. ...
I was under the impression that those points counted the same as points scored by the offense.

Show me where I gave the Chiefs offense credit for those points. I didn't. I gave the team credit for them. A team is made up of offense, defense and special teams. Well, maybe not the Broncos, but most teams.
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Old 11-11-2013, 03:54 PM   #183
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You are looking at yardage, not points. The Chiefs held the Browns to 17 and the Bills to 13. In fact the Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 in any games this year, How many teams have the Broncos held to 17 or less?
Just a question, if you ran your adjusted analysis on the Chiefs vs Browns, and the Chiefs vs Bills how would it look?

Finally, we have given up plenty of big passing games without von Miller, but with him in the game we have seen passing totals of 213, 154, and 198. That's an average of 188 per game. If we can get early down stops in the run game, we have been much improved in the passing D. Our defensive numbers are a bit of an anomaly without Miller (who seems to be gaining steam). Our defense is getting better, and stats won't reflect that yet.
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Old 11-11-2013, 03:56 PM   #184
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I was under the impression that those points counted the same as points scored by the offense.

Show me where I gave the Chiefs offense credit for those points. I didn't. I gave the team credit for them. A team is made up of offense, defense and special teams. Well, maybe not the Broncos, but most teams.
I'm talking strictly offense and saying the defensive and special teams will need to score in this game to win.
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:05 PM   #185
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Anyone who actually watches the games knows the Chiefs got massive pressure on the Bills and Browns in the 2nd half. Campbell was pressured multiple times but ran away and threw it away.

I'd be more worried about the Broncos OL giving up pressure to the Chargers bad pass rush. Larry freaking English beat your OT. Dear God I can't imagine what real pass rushers like Tamba or Houston will do
They will be forced to stand up at the LOS and play run 1st because KM will have 90 yards by the start of the 2nd quarter.

You talk about shutting down the great backup QB's of the NFL when the Cardinals come out and limit the great Case Keenum, whom you have pumped up to be Dan Marino in his prime, to only 40 yards of offense in the 2nd half. When the great backup QB Keenum played kFc he got that on one play to Johnson in the 4th quarter with the game on the line.

Going to love exposing a one dimensional D and the dink and dunk O in front of a national audience on Sunday night with an injured QB.
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:07 PM   #186
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Just a question, if you ran your adjusted analysis on the Chiefs vs Browns, and the Chiefs vs Bills how would it look?
I never bothered to crunch those numbers, but the Browns have a pretty good defense and with the Bills (23-13) the Chiefs were right at their averages (from two weeks ago) of 24 ppg and 12.8 papg.

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Finally, we have given up plenty of big passing games without von Miller, but with him in the game we have seen passing totals of 213, 154, and 198. That's an average of 188 per game. If we can get early down stops in the run game, we have been much improved in the passing D. Our defensive numbers are a bit of an anomaly without Miller (who seems to be gaining steam). Our defense is getting better, and stats won't reflect that yet.
True, your defense is better with Von than without him, but not that much better. In 3 games he has 13 tackles, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble which the Broncos didn't recover. I do expect him to get better in the coming weeks, though.
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:09 PM   #187
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So much more pressure on you guys. Lose here and you're 2 games back while having to go on the road to New England and KC.

Chiefs lose and they have next 2 games at home including another chance to go up on you.

Chiefs are underdogs. Not many people think they will win.
Wow, from the most dominant D since the 2000 Ravens and the '85 Bears to an undefeated underdog going against a QB with a high ankle sprain.

That must sting.
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:09 PM   #188
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I'm talking strictly offense and saying the defensive and special teams will need to score in this game to win.
Yes, they will need to either score or set up scores with great field position. They have been doing that all year. I don't see any reason why they can't do it this Sunday.
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:14 PM   #189
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True, your defense is better with Von than without him, but not that much better. In 3 games he has 13 tackles, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble which the Broncos didn't recover. I do expect him to get better in the coming weeks, though.
And to think in the last 2 kFc games you guys only have 1 sack. I would say 2 sacks and a forced fumble is excellent production in addition to Phillip's output. Throw in the fact that Wolfe is suddenly is producing with 2 of his 3 sacks coming since Von returned and I would be very concerned about your 1st overall pick at RT protecting your dink and dunk cast off 49er QB.
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:15 PM   #190
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Yes, they will need to either score or set up scores with great field position. They have been doing that all year. I don't see any reason why they can't do it this Sunday.
By setting up scores you mean setting up FG's right?

kFc has been terrible in the REID zone all year and it is only getting worse.
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:15 PM   #191
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And to think in the last 2 kFc games you guys only have 1 sack. I would say 2 sacks and a forced fumble is excellent production in addition to Phillip's output. Throw in the fact that Wolfe is suddenly is producing with 2 of his 3 sacks coming since Von returned and I would be very concerned about your 1st overall pick at RT protecting your dink and dunk cast off 49er QB.
Something is in the Camaro motor oil this week in kFC.
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:16 PM   #192
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True, your defense is better with Von than without him, but not that much better. In 3 games he has 13 tackles, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble which the Broncos didn't recover. I do expect him to get better in the coming weeks, though.
incorrect
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:16 PM   #193
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:17 PM   #194
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:20 PM   #195
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Boooooom
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:26 PM   #196
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So this means kFc will only have 90 total passing yards this week!

Dinking and dunking to 9-1!

I bet Alice has to pull it down and run after his 1st option is covered at least 10 times or more only to get caught from behind by Miller behind the LOS!
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:31 PM   #197
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Gutless just posted a stat saying broncos are ranked 2nd in fewest QB hits. Yet browns and bills are ranked near bottom of the league and chiefs had only one sack between them. chief trolls think they'll get 10 sacks on Sunday.
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:43 PM   #198
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incorrect
Sorry. I should have said "which he didn't recover."
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:46 PM   #199
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And yet, they STILL gave up 38, 21 and 20 points; all more than the Chiefs have given up in ANY game this year.
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Old 11-11-2013, 04:51 PM   #200
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Denver's "best offense of all time" has faced the following ranked defenses.

32nd
31st
29th
28th
27th
20th
16th
13th (Giants have been injured and depleted all year)
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