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Old 08-14-2013, 05:55 AM   #1
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Default Broncos are now THE favorites to win the Super Bowl / Is this really a good thing?

Broncos are now THE favorites to win the Super Bowl
By MIKE KLIS The Denver Post






I keep seeing and hearing reports that the Broncos are co-favorites to win the Super Bowl this season.

Not true. They are the prohibitive favorites. Here are the best odds to win the Super Bowl, as set by the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino sports book, which pretty much sets the odds for all of Vegas:

Broncos …. 5-1
49ers …… 6-1
Seahawks … 7-1
Patriots … 8-1
PACKERS …. 8-1
TEXANS …. 14-1
FALCONS … 18-1
SAINTS …. 18-1
STEELERS .. 20-1
GIANTS …. 20-1
REDSKINS .. 20-1
BENGALS … 25-1
RAVENS …. 30-1
BEARS ….. 30-1

The wise guys don’t think much of the new Ravens do they? Which is fine except I think Ozzie Newsome is wise, too.



http://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/...er-bowl/20738/
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Old 08-14-2013, 05:57 AM   #2
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Don't get the Pats at 8 - 1
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Old 08-14-2013, 05:59 AM   #3
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prohibitive: So likely to win as to discourage competition

Seeing as the 49ers, Seahawks, Patriots, and Packers were all given 8-1 odds or better, methinks Klis doesn't quite know what the word "prohibitive" means....
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Old 08-14-2013, 06:45 AM   #4
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The reason Denve ris the favorites is because the 49ers, Seahawks and Packers will have to get through each other to even get to the SB. I imagine if the 49ers were in the AFC they would be the favorites to win.

Either way being the favorite is a good thing. This team has one goal and anything less is failure.
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Old 08-14-2013, 06:49 AM   #5
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Quote:
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Don't get the Pats at 8 - 1
The Patriots have played in the Super Bowl 5 of the last 11 years. That's almost a SB appearance every other year. I agree their odds are a bit high, but people know they more often than not at least get close.
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Old 08-14-2013, 06:51 AM   #6
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The Patriots have played in the Super Bowl 5 of the last 11 years. That's almost a SB appearance every other year. I agree their odds are a bit high, but people know they more often than not at least get close.
I expect the Pats to miss the playoffs this year.


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Old 08-14-2013, 06:52 AM   #7
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Also remember the odds are framed around how the guys in Vegas think people are going to bet more than around who they think will win. That's why as people place bets the odds shift. They are looking at how to take people's money while encouraging them to give it to them.
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Old 08-14-2013, 06:53 AM   #8
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I expect the Pats to miss the playoffs this year.
I don't. Their division is so horrible they could go 8-8 and get a home playoff game.
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Old 08-14-2013, 06:56 AM   #9
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I don't. Their division is so horrible they could go 8-8 and get a home playoff game.
I hear ya. Betting on Maimi. Pats are over due for a run of bad luck and belly has gutted the spirit of that team
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Old 08-14-2013, 06:59 AM   #10
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Why wouldn't it be a good thing? Some fans say that they like it when their team flies under the radar. Usually those teams fly under the radar because they aren't that good to begin with.
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Old 08-14-2013, 07:04 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaylore View Post
The Patriots have played in the Super Bowl 5 of the last 11 years. That's almost a SB appearance every other year. I agree their odds are a bit high, but people know they more often than not at least get close.
I haven't looked it up, but didn't they go to the AFC Championship game and lose a couple times over that time period? They make a good playoff run just about every year.

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Also remember the odds are framed around how the guys in Vegas think people are going to bet more than around who they think will win. That's why as people place bets the odds shift. They are looking at how to take people's money while encouraging them to give it to them.
That's exactly right. Kind of like the Packers being like a 12 point favorite over the Broncos in Super Bowl XXXII. If the Packers had only been favored by 3 points, nobody would have bet them, and Vegas would have went out of business on that game. Vegas is trying to get half the people to bet one way, the other half the other way.
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Old 08-14-2013, 07:14 AM   #12
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Why wouldn't it be a good thing? Some fans say that they like it when their team flies under the radar. Usually those teams fly under the radar because they aren't that good to begin with.
I agree it is not a huge thing but it does work on a teams head and other teams will be just a little more motivated. I would rather see them slighted by the odds makers but like I said its a small thing.
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Old 08-14-2013, 07:49 AM   #13
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I expect the Pats to miss the playoffs this year.


Karma is coming
If their first preseason game is any indication, that offense won't skip a beat
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Old 08-14-2013, 07:54 AM   #14
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I don't see many teams in the AFC that are lock it down type picks. Seems there is a shift in powerhouse teams from the afc going to the NFC. This could be a year where you might see 3 teams going to the playoffs from the AFC north
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:14 AM   #15
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I don't think it's a good thing, or a bad thing.

It's just a thing.
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:16 AM   #16
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Being the favorite does not matter, the game is played on the field every week, not in the sports books in Las Vegas. Any day a team can be beat or a player knocked out for the season and totally change the odds. Talk to me in late January.
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:17 AM   #17
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If their first preseason game is any indication, that offense won't skip a beat
They played the all new Eagles
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:21 AM   #18
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Bring it.
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:26 AM   #19
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I have to ask, is baja posting crap really a good thing?
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:36 AM   #20
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Better than being talked about as a team in the hunt for the #1 pick.
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:38 AM   #21
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From a pure Vegas-bet-odds standpoint, the Falcons at 18-1 is a real good bet to take. Just sayin.
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:39 AM   #22
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I think it will be a good test because everyone is gunning for us - we're the team to beat. This Broncos season realistically starts in January... and once we've passed through the gauntlet, I think we'll be better prepared.
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:40 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaylore View Post
The Patriots have played in the Super Bowl 5 of the last 11 years. That's almost a SB appearance every other year. I agree their odds are a bit high, but people know they more often than not at least get close.
Yup. And they were in the AFC title game in 7 of those years......losing in 2006 when they blew a 21-0 lead vs. the Colts........and losing last year to the Ravens.

Not to mention, in the 12 season since 2001 (2001 through 2012)......they have only missed the playoffs TWICE. In 2002 (the year after their 1st SB win), and in 2008 when Brady blew his knee out.

10 playoff appearances in 12 seasons.......as much as I hate them, that's impressive.
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:42 AM   #24
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Quote:
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Also remember the odds are framed around how the guys in Vegas think people are going to bet more than around who they think will win. That's why as people place bets the odds shift. They are looking at how to take people's money while encouraging them to give it to them.
At some point in my pursuit of an Econ phd, I'd really like to look into the question, "does gambling really have any economic value?"

There are arguments to be made either side: on one side you're creating exchange, on the other you're really not creating wealth, just making the distribution of it more uneven.

Realistically, my gut tells me there's no value in gambling.

- edit - I realize that gambling has microeconomic value - just look a Vegas. But capital tends to follow Newton's Law: for every reaction there's an equal and opposite reaction. Vegas's success if built upon the broken dreams of others.

/rant

Last edited by Mogulseeker; 08-14-2013 at 08:49 AM..
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:42 AM   #25
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Quote:
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I think it will be a good test because everyone is gunning for us - we're the team to beat. This Broncos season realistically starts in January... and once we've passed through the gauntlet, I think we'll be better prepared.
Pretty sure the Ravens are the world champions and are the "team to beat" and I think 30-1 odds are a little skewed. As for these Vegas odds, they have to put some team first, and I don't think this means other teams will be "gunning" for the Broncos.
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