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Old 08-08-2013, 05:37 AM   #1
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Default Predictalator simulates entire 2013 season 50000 times

(no need to play/watch the season now!)

A computer program called The Predictalator created by Prediction Machine simulated the NFL season 50,000 times, says that the 49ers are the most likely team to win the Super Bowl this season, winning in 20.1% of the simulations. The Eagles won the Super Bowl in 0.5% of the simulations.

Hereís how the simulations work:

Just as the Predictalator plays each individual NFL game 50,000 times before itís actually played, it can also play the entire NFL season 50,000 times before itís actually played. The actual 2013 regular season and playoff schedules have been played 50,000 times, allowing us to compute average records and likelihoods of each team making the playoffs, winning its division and bringing home the Super Bowl trophy.

Denver, the AFCís top-seed, wins the Super Bowl 14.6% of the time. The Green Bay Packers (10.5%), New England Patriots (8.9%), Seattle Seahawks (7.2%) and Houston Texans (7.1%). No other team has more than a 3% chance of winning.

There are 11 teams that win between 1.5% and 3.0% of the simulations.

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/201...es-0-5-chance/
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Old 08-08-2013, 06:24 AM   #2
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"We'd never seen a negative percentage before until we plugged the Chiefs and Raiders in this year. Didn't ever think that was possible with one team much less two."

Wow.
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Old 08-08-2013, 06:57 AM   #3
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It will be entertaining watching the Chiefs and Raiders this year.
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Old 08-08-2013, 07:36 AM   #4
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I'm sure they ran this last year, too. Wonder if the Predictalator had the Ravens?
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Old 08-08-2013, 07:42 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bowtown View Post
"We'd never seen a negative percentage before until we plugged the Chiefs and Raiders in this year. Didn't ever think that was possible with one team much less two."

Wow.
In b4 KCpud acts like he is good at math.
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Old 08-08-2013, 08:14 AM   #6
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Most Important Defensive Player: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

I had no idea.
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Old 08-08-2013, 10:47 AM   #7
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How do they get 14%? I'd rate Denver's chances of winning the superbowl between 98.9% and 99.9%, somewhere in that range.
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Old 08-08-2013, 11:09 AM   #8
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"60 percent of the time, it works everytime"
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Old 08-08-2013, 11:59 AM   #9
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Wonder what the Ravens were last year. Or the Giants the year before.
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Old 08-08-2013, 12:13 PM   #10
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I saved a lot of items from the 1997 season and have been looking at them lately. Several are magazines from before the season and they used to have a computer that did the same thing, I'm sure without all the stats they have now. The mags predicted who would top out the season and while many are often way off, the majority that I have all predicted GB over Denver and the computer about the same.

Yeah it's our year!
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Old 08-08-2013, 12:16 PM   #11
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Wait it says the Eagles will win 7 games but are only favored in 4? Lol
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