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Old 08-22-2013, 09:13 AM   #51
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We also have a "groupthink" about gravity.
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Old 08-22-2013, 09:22 AM   #52
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We also have a "groupthink" about gravity.
Really? Show me the Intergovernmental Panel "consensus" paper on what causes it.
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Old 08-22-2013, 09:22 AM   #53
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Hey, you live around the Great Lakes. Do you know when many scientists (the normal non-celebrity seeking kind) think those formed?
Depends on how you define "scientists".

I'm sure the ones you listen to would say about 6,000 years ago.
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Old 08-22-2013, 09:27 AM   #54
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Stop trying to change the subject, Beavis.

You are going to sit here and listen to all the hilarious things we have to say about you and your idiotic stances until we say you can leave.
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Old 08-22-2013, 09:34 AM   #55
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Depends on how you define "scientists".

I'm sure the ones you listen to would say about 6,000 years ago.
Close, but thanks for underscoring my point. Drastic, Drastic global climate changes. Christ was born 2,000 years ago. The first known organized civilizations maybe only 8.000 years before that.

At the same time, glaciers were retreating from vast swaths of North America. Before which those huge bodies of water (the Great Lakes) didn't even exist.

Would you see the return of that cataclysmic 'natural' condition as logically preferable to a degree or two of manmade warming?
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Old 08-22-2013, 09:47 AM   #56
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If consensus had grown so organically, there'd be no need for the politicos to brow beat with it so often.
You're blaming the science community for the politicos' actions?

Do you whack M.D.'s for having a consensus regarding cigarettes and cancer every time a politician wants taxes on tobacco raised?
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Old 08-22-2013, 09:50 AM   #57
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You're blaming the science community for the politicos' actions?

Do you whack M.D.'s for having a consensus regarding cigarettes and cancer every time a politician wants taxes on tobacco raised?
That was all a hoax too. They didn't let the data percolate long enough.
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Old 08-22-2013, 09:52 AM   #58
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Hey, at least I'm not the one who thinks mankind is "the" cause of global warming.
We are the dominant cause of the changes in the climate system which we have observed.

Doesn't mean we're "the" cause - which isn't what the science says anyway.
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Old 08-22-2013, 10:00 AM   #59
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You're blaming the science community for the politicos' actions?

Do you whack M.D.'s for having a consensus regarding cigarettes and cancer every time a politician wants taxes on tobacco raised?
I blame scientists when they spill over into activism.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/02/sc...anted=all&_r=0

Which is the rule of thumb within the Big-AGW industry.
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Old 08-22-2013, 10:24 AM   #60
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I blame scientists when they spill over into activism.
So, your beef is with Hansen.

Should scientists talk about anything other than their science, and keep their comments strictly technical and related only to their science?

Since when does being a scientist preclude being a citizen too?

Sounds to me like you think climate scientists should just shut up.

They do that, and AGW goes away, eh?
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Old 08-22-2013, 10:50 AM   #61
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http://www.salon.com/2001/10/23/weather/

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While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met Jim Hansen, the scientist who in 1988 predicted the greenhouse effect before Congress. I went over to the window with him and looked out on Broadway in New York City and said, “If what you’re saying about the greenhouse effect is true, is anything going to look different down there in 20 years?” He looked for a while and was quiet and didn’t say anything for a couple seconds. Then he said, “Well, there will be more traffic.” I, of course, didn’t think he heard the question right. Then he explained, “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.” Then he said, “There will be more police cars.” Why? “Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”
Yet this "Grandfather of Climate Science" hack somehow maintained a job 'studying' global climate for the 35 years since.
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Old 08-22-2013, 10:56 AM   #62
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Yet this "Grandfather of Climate Science" hack somehow maintained a job 'studying' global climate for the 35 years since.
Yeah, yeah. Hansen is no "hack".

You just want scientists to STFU. You're wrong. As usual.

Examining Hansen's prediction about the West Side Highway

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James Hansen made his statement in response to a question by Bob Reiss, a journalist and author, in 1988. He did not predict that the West Side Highway would be underwater in 20 years.

Bob Reiss reports the conversation as follows:

"When I interviewe­­d James Hansen I asked him to speculate on what the view outside his office window could look like in 40 years with doubled CO2. I'd been trying to think of a way to discuss the greenhouse effect in a way that would make sense to average readers. I wasn't asking for hard scientific studies. It wasn't an academic interview. It was a discussion with a kind and thoughtful man who answered the question. You can find the descriptio­­n in two of my books, most recently The Coming Storm."
James Hansen reports the conversation as follows:

"Reiss asked me to speculate on changes that might happen in New York City in 40 years assuming CO2 doubled in amount."
The book The Coming Storm and the salon.com article are different. In The Coming Storm the question includes the conditions of doubled CO2 and 40 years, while the salon.com article which is quoted by skeptics does not mention doubled CO2, and involves only 20 years.

To understand the discrepancy between these two published accounts, it helps to look at the timeline of events. The original conversation was in 1988. Ten years later, referring to his notes, Bob Reiss recounted the conversation in his book The Coming Storm. James Hansen confirmed the conversation and said he would not change a thing he said. After the book was published, Bob Reiss was talking to a journalist at salon.com about it. As he puts it,

"although the book text is correct, in remembering our original conversation, during a casual phone interview with a Salon magazine reporter in 2001 I was off in years.”

We can check back in 2028, the 40 year mark, and also when and if we reach 560 ppm CO2 (a doubling from pre-industrial levels). In the meantime, we can stop using this conversation from 1988 as a reason to be skeptical about the human origins of global warming.
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Old 08-22-2013, 11:03 AM   #63
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Yeah, yeah. Hansen is no "hack".

You just want scientists to STFU. You're wrong. As usual.

Examining Hansen's prediction about the West Side Highway
So your argument is that his cataclysmic ocean rise is still coming over the next 15 years, with pretty much zero indication at this point that that's even a reasonable possibility.

Anyway, I'm glad you'll still defend Hansen in the face of this ridiculousness. It fully establishes that this is Dogma. Not science.
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Old 08-22-2013, 11:04 AM   #64
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100 years from now, Phoenix will be a ghost town.
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Old 08-22-2013, 11:08 AM   #65
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So your argument is that his cataclysmic ocean rise is still coming over the next 15 years, with pretty much zero indication at this point that that's even a reasonable possibility.
When CO2 has reached 560 ppm (double the pre-industrial 280 ppm, assuming we do nothing to mitigate it's rise), Hansen's prediction may well come true. Don't fall for the skeptic BS that if his timing is wrong, he's just plain wrong.

We're at 400ppm now - which hasn't occurred in at least 800,000 years. That's before our existence as a species.

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Anyway, I'm glad you'll still defend Hansen in the face of this ridiculousness. It fully establishes that this is Dogma. Not science.
You don't know enough of the science to make any claim regarding it.
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Old 08-22-2013, 11:11 AM   #66
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Here's the West Side highway during Sandy:


This photo provided by Dylan Patrick shows flooding along the Westside Highway near the USS Intrepid as Sandy moves through the area Monday, Oct. 29, 2012 in New York. Much of New York was plunged into darkness Monday by a superstorm that overflowed the city's historic waterfront, flooded the financial district and subway tunnels and cut power to nearly a million people. (AP Photo/Dylan Patrick) MANDATORY CREDIT: DYLAN PATRICK
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Old 08-22-2013, 11:45 AM   #67
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Yeah, yeah. Hansen is no "hack".

You just want scientists to STFU. You're wrong. As usual.

Examining Hansen's prediction about the West Side Highway
This is the problem with arguing with the irrational and conspiracy "theorists", the experts have to be right 100% of the time, but any single error results in nullifying the entire body of work and to their scientific discredit. While the irrational and conspiracy "theorists" can wrong 99.99% of the time because that one time, by chance, they are correct it justifies their belief system. E.g. it is snowing somewhere during the summer, hence no global warming. Or all the thousands of scientists dependent on government funding for studying the earth sciences are in a scientific conspiracy to continue the lie to keep their jobs. Somehow this would also include foreign scientist as well . By this logic there is no cancer and all those cancer researchers are just in it for the government funding.

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Old 08-22-2013, 11:52 AM   #68
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This is the problem with arguing with the irrational and conspiracy "theorists", the experts have to be right 100% of the time, but any single error results in nullifying the entire body of work and to their scientific discredit. While the irrational and conspiracy "theorists" can wrong 99.99% of the time because that one time, by chance, they are correct it justifies their belief system. E.g. it is snowing somewhere during the summer, hence no global warming. Or all the thousands of scientists dependent on government funding for studying the earth sciences are in a scientific conspiracy to continue the lie to keep their jobs. Somehow this would also include foreign scientist as well . By this logic there is no cancer and all those cancer researchers are just in it for the government funding.

Where's the Like button?
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Old 08-22-2013, 11:53 AM   #69
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If you own property in the SW, sell it. Now.
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Old 08-22-2013, 12:14 PM   #70
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Wow. A single weather event can fulfill long term climate predictions. Water wuz High in a Hurricane! Global Warmins! Global Warmins!

In that case...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_814869.html

NY Gets Record Amount Of Snow In January

Global Warmins Cancelled I guess. Wagsy's the dean of the Burgundy-Fantana Academy of Science.


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Old 08-22-2013, 12:23 PM   #71
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Wow. A single weather event can fulfill long term climate predictions. Water wuz High in a Hurricane! Global Warmins! Global Warmins!

In that case...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_814869.html

NY Gets Record Amount Of Snow In January

Global Warmins Cancelled I guess. Wagsy's the dean of the Burgundy-Fantana Academy of Science.

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showpos...5&postcount=67

Which are you, irrational or a conspiracy theorist?

Personally I think the board has let the data percolate enough, and we've come to the consensus that you're a dumbass.
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Old 08-22-2013, 12:34 PM   #72
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http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showpos...5&postcount=67

Which are you, irrational or a conspiracy theorist?

Personally I think the board has let the data percolate enough, and we've come to the consensus that you're a dumbass.
Hey, can anyone show me the decade long flat spot in old Hockey Stick Hansen's model prediction? I tried to find it, but it's hard to see.

http://www.dailytech.com/Warming+Eva...ticle30322.htm

A good read on the state of the whole debate. But it's probably pointless. Hard to debate the Church, after all.
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Old 08-22-2013, 01:27 PM   #73
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Wow. A single weather event can fulfill long term climate predictions. Water wuz High in a Hurricane! Global Warmins! Global Warmins!
Nope. But without the 1 foot rise in sea level that's already taken place because of AGW, Sandy's impacts may have been considerably less.
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Old 08-22-2013, 01:59 PM   #74
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Nope. But without the 1 foot rise in sea level that's already taken place because of AGW, Sandy's impacts may have been considerably less.
Really? A foot in rise since 1988?

Assume 2mm a year, which is close to the IPCC's number, I think. Doesn't get you anywhere near a foot.
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Old 08-22-2013, 01:59 PM   #75
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Hey, can anyone show me the decade long flat spot in old Hockey Stick Hansen's model prediction?
Hansen didn't work on the "hockey stick". That was Michael Mann.


The data (green) are the average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).

and speaking of hockey sticks...


This graph shows that even at the lowest range of climate sensitivity, future global warming will take us well beyond any temperature experienced during civilised human history. The blue line represents reconstructed temperature (Marcott et al. 2013). The red line represents measured and projected global surface temperature (Meinshausen et al. 2011). The red dots show the projected warming in the year 2100 for three different climate sensitivities (high sensitivity 4.5°C, most likely sensitivity 3°C, low sensitivity 1.5°C). H/T to Joe Romm and Michael Tobis whose work inspired this graph.
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