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Old 06-13-2013, 02:34 PM   #1
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Default Manning yard total

The "Welker is on the decline" thread got me thinking - how many yards will Manning throw for this season?

He has better receivers than last year, and he's put up some gaudy numbers in the past. Of course, now he has run-happy Fox.

Fox has conceded a lot to Manning, however.

I don't think he'll break 5,000... but I think it will be close.

He has three 1,000 yard receivers in Welker, Thomas and Decker. If one of those drops below the 1,000 yard mark I think it would be Decker... but I think they will all hit that mark. Welker is a bit of a wildcard, but I don't see much transition from Brady to Manning except for the fact that our other receivers (outside Welker) are still better than the Pats.

So that's 3,000.

I still think we carry only one more WR than that (other than Holiday)... so basically two more - either Knight or Robinson, with Orton and Caldwell battling with Robinson. Either way, I don't think the #4 WR gets much action as Jacob Tamme played the #4 WR role last year.

Which is why I think we still carry 4 TEs. Dreesen as the base starter and Tamme on third down with Thomas and Green as the rotational guys. Each has their value - Dreesen is the best overall when you factor in blocking, Tamme has value as a split-WR. I still think Thomas is too young and talented to let go. Green is a versatile athlete and a pretty good ST player. I'm sure Thomas would have to show the coaches something at ST if he makes the team.

I'd say 1,000 among the TEs is realistic. 300 for Dreesen, 250 each for Tamme/Thomas, with a catch here and there for Green. (If it's this spread out, its either a good sign that we're distributing the ball well or there have been a lot of injuries).

I'm really not including Holliday or Green in this because they're essentially reserve/ST players.... assuming Thomas makes the team this year.

Now that McGahee is gone, it seems that Moreno is more likely to stay. Hilman will make the team. Don't know what to expect from M.Ball. However, I feel confident that the reception total will increase from last year, because no matter how you feel about Moreno, you have to admit he is a solid screen/check down guy. Ball will start, Hilman will spell him, and I think Moreno gets plenty of action as the primary 3rd down back to block/check down.

I'd say 800 is realistic, with a lot of those coming as 3rd down passes and screens to Moreno and check downs to Hilman.

That's a total of 4,800. I realize that is a lot, but I believe I'm being conservative.

The Broncos were 6th in the NFL in passing last year with 4,600 yards. I think the running game takes a very slight dip (less than 100 yards) and the passing game improves by at least 200 yards as Manning has another year in the system, and we essentially traded Stokley for Welker, offensively speaking.
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Old 06-13-2013, 02:39 PM   #2
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bout 3500

Last edited by lolcopter; 06-13-2013 at 02:40 PM.. Reason: +1000
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Old 06-13-2013, 02:44 PM   #3
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Assuming a healthy season

4300-4500 yards and 35-40 touches.

We're going to be playing with a lot of 2nd half leads against AFC West teams this year, which will keep it below 5000.
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Old 06-13-2013, 02:45 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lolcopter View Post
bout 3500
Uh....no. You're suggesting he'll have his lowest yardage total in his entire career. Manning has only thrown for fewer than 4,000 2 times in his career.....the first time was his rookie year (3,739), and in 2005 (3,747).

Remember that Manning had his 2nd highest yardage season LAST year with us in a new system.....at 4,659.....which was only 41 yards fewer than his highest in 2010 of 4,700.

Nah.....me thinks he'll have anywhere from 4,200 to 4,600 yards. No chance he's below 4,000.

Edit that: Considering he practically matched his career high last year coming of neck surgery and in a new system......he could easily set a personal best in yardage, now that he is 1 more year removed from the surgery and 1 more year in Denver.......5,000+ is not out of the realm of possibility.
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Old 06-13-2013, 02:48 PM   #5
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I think he'll be around 4k since the 4th quarter will be brosweiler practicing his hand offs all year.

4100 yds
42 td
7 int
121 passer
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Old 06-13-2013, 02:51 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 55CrushEm View Post
Uh....no. You're suggesting he'll have his lowest yardage total in his entire career. Manning has only thrown for fewer than 4,000 2 times in his career.....the first time was his rookie year (3,739), and in 2005 (3,747).

Remember that Manning had his 2nd highest yardage season LAST year with us in a new system.....at 4,659.....which was only 41 yards fewer than his highest in 2010 of 4,700.

Nah.....me thinks he'll have anywhere from 4,200 to 4,600 yards. No chance he's below 4,000.

Edit that: Considering he practically matched his career high last year coming of neck surgery and in a new system......he could easily set a personal best in yardage, now that he is 1 more year removed from the surgery and 1 more year in Denver.......5,000+ is not out of the realm of possibility.
It was a joke.

Or an attempt at one.

It was a play on "bout tree fiddy" but as 3500 instead.
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Old 06-13-2013, 02:51 PM   #7
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Like I said in that thread I can see Mannings pass attempts going from 583 to as high as 620. You take those extra attempts and combine them with his AVG per attempt he would be right 4942 yards on the year.

Thomas 1300 yards
Decker 1050 yards
Welker 1100 yards
Tamme 350 yards
Dreessen 250 yards
M. Ball 200 yards
Hillman 300 yards


That would leave 392 yards for the rest.
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Old 06-13-2013, 02:57 PM   #8
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+/- 5000
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Old 06-13-2013, 03:02 PM   #9
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Hmmm interesting.

But the real question is how many rushing yards will he get?
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Old 06-13-2013, 03:05 PM   #10
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Old 06-13-2013, 03:06 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheReverend View Post
It was a joke.

Or an attempt at one.

It was a play on "bout tree fiddy" but as 3500 instead.
My bad. Sarcasm filter was set too high. None of it came through to me.

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Old 06-13-2013, 03:09 PM   #12
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Thanks rev, glad someone has a similar sense of humor haha
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Old 06-13-2013, 03:11 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheReverend View Post
It was a joke.

Or an attempt at one.

It was a play on "bout tree fiddy" but as 3500 instead.
I'm a South Park nut and I wouldn't have gotten that had you not told me.
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Old 06-13-2013, 03:13 PM   #14
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He'll break 5,000 this year.
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Old 06-13-2013, 03:17 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bacchus View Post
He'll break 5,000 this year.
I think it's possible.

I wonder... the argument that we'll be protecting leads in the second half next season holds water. He'll have to get most of those yards in the first half.
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Old 06-13-2013, 03:22 PM   #16
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I think it's possible.

I wonder... the argument that we'll be protecting leads in the second half next season holds water. He'll have to get most of those yards in the first half.
Manning does not like to come out of games so he might dial it down in the second half but I think he won't be coming out ever in the 3rd quarter.
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Old 06-13-2013, 03:23 PM   #17
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Old 06-13-2013, 03:26 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swedish Extrovert View Post
I think it's possible.

I wonder... the argument that we'll be protecting leads in the second half next season holds water. He'll have to get most of those yards in the first half.
That should be offset by the quicker pace and more plays talk.
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Old 06-13-2013, 04:22 PM   #19
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Quote:
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He'll break 5,000 this year.
WHAT, 5,000?
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Old 06-13-2013, 04:25 PM   #20
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I'm not expecting him to have a better season than he did last year. I realize all the pieces are in place, but these things are generally fairly random and the bar was set really high last year. You also have to remember that we were airing it out in comeback attempts quite often last year. I don't expect that to be the case this season.
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Old 06-13-2013, 04:28 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by extralife View Post
I'm not expecting him to have a better season than he did last year. I realize all the pieces are in place, but these things are generally fairly random and the bar was set really high last year. You also have to remember that we were airing it out in comeback attempts quite often last year. I don't expect that to be the case this season.
often.... what 2/3 games?
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Old 06-13-2013, 04:30 PM   #22
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look at Peyton's 4th quarter numbers. they were pretty ridiculous.
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Old 06-13-2013, 05:39 PM   #23
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If everything goes as planned, Peyton will be throwing less in the 2nd half as the Broncos hopefully will be pounding the ball and eating the clock to secure yet another 31-17 victory.
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Old 06-13-2013, 05:52 PM   #24
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So can we just skip to the playoffs?
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Old 06-13-2013, 06:25 PM   #25
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4500 +\-250
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