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Old 03-23-2013, 02:43 PM   #1
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I think this is an interesting read on how to value the draft based on really analyzing the data from a historical perspective and trying to plug in a numerical value for each draft pick, enjoy:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/
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Old 03-23-2013, 02:56 PM   #2
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I would not be suprised if Elway doesn't use this chart in future trades, it basically says that if the Broncos for example want to trade up to the number on spot, it will cost in trade something like this:

this year's first, or a swap of first round picks, the Broncos second round pick and fourth round picks! that's it. So basically there's a lot of value in the 2-4th rounds, more or less, give or take.



http://harvardsportsanalysis.files.w.../11/value3.jpg
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Old 03-23-2013, 06:33 PM   #3
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http://forums.denverbroncos.com/show...30#post3678330

This guy jgod654 from Broncos Country had a good analysis of how draft picks panned out over their careers compared to where they were picked. Not by name, just by number.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:55 PM   #4
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same old chart that no one uses any longer... In our mock drafts. Way over valued by many here.
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Old 03-24-2013, 01:26 AM   #5
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same old chart that no one uses any longer... In our mock drafts. Way over valued by many here.
The first one was the old Jimmie Johnson one the 2nd one seemed new to me with way less value at the top of round 1.
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Old 03-24-2013, 10:10 AM   #6
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Revised list, according to him.



I don't agree late round picks are undervalued. Late picks rarely make the team and if they do, they often are out of the league in a couple years.
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Old 03-24-2013, 05:44 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ View Post
I think this is an interesting read on how to value the draft based on really analyzing the data from a historical perspective and trying to plug in a numerical value for each draft pick, enjoy:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/
Quote:
Taking data from www.pro-football-reference.com, I have created a much better system that more accurately values each pick in the NFL draft, similar to the work done by Chase Stuart. Pro-Football-Reference uses a metric called Career Approximate Value (CAV) that allows one to compare players across seasons and positions. It is not meant as the ultimate NFL statistic. It is useful for comparing large groups of players across time and positions, which is exactly the objective here. Using data from 1980 through 2005, I analyzed each overall draft pick from 1 to 224 (the 32nd pick of the 7th round in today’s draft). I found the mean, median, and standard deviation of the CAV for each pick from those 25 years, creating one set of data that represented the historical value of each pick. I then found the mean, median and standard deviation for this new dataset to determine the expected value of a normal draft pick. I then used that normal pick to standardize my data, finding the percentage value over average, or Career Approximate Value Over Average (CAVOA), for every pick in the draft. For example, the first overall pick, historically, has had a mean CAV of 66.7. The standard draft pick had a mean CAV of 15.03. . Thus the first overall pick was 443.39% more valuable than the standard pick. Using this method, I found the CAVOA of every pick in the draft, and then regressed it against overall pick number. The regression equation was with an R2 of 0.91599. The R2 means that the variance in overall pick number explains 91.599% of the variance in CAVOA. Using this equation, I found the expected CAVOA for every pick in the draft.
It's much quicker to take the average "CAV" of all the players drafted at #28, and that is what the Broncos can expect. He uses data from 1980-2005. I'm not going all they way back to 1980, but you get the point.

2005 Luis Castillo DE CAV=34
2004 Chris Gamble DB CAV=47
2003 Andre Woolfolk DB CAV=6
2002 Jerramy Stevens TE CAV=26
2001 Derrick Gibson DB CAV=12
2000 Rob Morris LB CAV=25
1999 Andy Katzenmoyer LB CAV=24
1998 R.W. McQuarters DB CAV=38
1997 Trevor Pryce DT CAV=81

From this small sample, we can expect a player with a CAV around 33. We shouldn't expect another Trevor Pryce, or even a Chris Gamble (who's a John Fox pick, btw) because they are the exceptions that actually brought the average CAV up.
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Old 03-25-2013, 06:01 AM   #8
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another interesting analysis from the Harvard boys that is germane to this year's draft: http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...nse/#more-4196 . Essentially, they say that combine numbers are variable in predicting success in the NFL, with DE and CB being more highly predictable and ILB, DT, FS and SS to be least predictable. If that's the case then it would suggest we go DE or CB in the first and second, and then ILB and SS in rounds 3-4. (ignoring the O.)
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Old 03-25-2013, 07:10 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orinjkrush View Post
another interesting analysis from the Harvard boys that is germane to this year's draft: http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...nse/#more-4196 . Essentially, they say that combine numbers are variable in predicting success in the NFL, with DE and CB being more highly predictable and ILB, DT, FS and SS to be least predictable. If that's the case then it would suggest we go DE or CB in the first and second, and then ILB and SS in rounds 3-4. (ignoring the O.)
I enjoyed this. I like when they break some of those things down. Much of the draft is a crap shoot, but when a trend of indicators point toward a player's success in the pro's it's nice to find. Some of the drills are antiquated and have no bearing on how good a player will be - even position to position. I wish this was looked at updated more regularly. If they kept changing and tweaking the draft drills by position, it would make it more interesting. It would be harder for the players to prepare for too, so you may get a truer evaluation.
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Old 03-25-2013, 11:33 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaylore View Post
I enjoyed this. I like when they break some of those things down. Much of the draft is a crap shoot, but when a trend of indicators point toward a player's success in the pro's it's nice to find. Some of the drills are antiquated and have no bearing on how good a player will be - even position to position. I wish this was looked at updated more regularly. If they kept changing and tweaking the draft drills by position, it would make it more interesting. It would be harder for the players to prepare for too, so you may get a truer evaluation.
agree. And to bet wisely you take the more sure bet first. so only use the metrics that more closely predict success for the positions you need to draft. unless of course you have "trouble with the curve".
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