Dumervil Replacement?

[SlyEli]

Check out this guy, he tore up the senior bowl and beat up on some top prospects. Has looked pretty awesome in pre-draft workouts

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVJYQ99Ufe4

[Swedish Extrovert]

Ayers will have a career year this year. Maybe not 15+ sacks, but he'll fill in for Dumervil.

[Swedish Extrovert]

By no means is he going to "replace" Dumervil, but with Von rushing the passer, I think Ayers will be an adequate starter, and I think we should still be able to pull off a top 5 defense again next year.

[Tim]

I will be surprised if he doesn't have a good season.

[Heyneck]

Originally Posted by Swedish Extrovert

Ayers will have a career year this year. Maybe not 15+ sacks, but he'll fill in for Dumervil.

hahahahaha....

[SoCalBronco]

Not on the roster yet.

[ZONA]

We shall see. I think Ayers was just starting to come on last year. Sometimes it's really hard to shine when you are rotation material. Sometimes, you need that chance to be the full time starter. We saw that last year in Woodyard. Whether it's an injury or suspension to the starter, sometimes you don't know exactly what you have until you see a guy get those starter reps in practice and get the full time reps in games.

Ayers has an excellent DE build at 6'3 275 and has a really good first step. He only did 18 reps at his combine so not sure if that's gone up but I would say with adding the weight he has and being in an NFL training program for several years I would say that's probably gone up to about 23-25 reps. I think he's strong enough. Not as quick as Doom and his speed rush is not as refined as Doom's was. But he does play hard and he does get good pressure. It's just that in spot duty, he really didn't get all the way there on a regular basis. But I've said this before and it's worth repeating. You don't have to lead the league in sacks, as a player, or as a defense, to be great. If I'm not mistaken, the Ravens and the 49'ers were both average in total team sacks this year. Don't get me wrong, sacks are excellent. But getting 3rd down stops and goal line defense are much more important. I think this defense has a chance to improve in both those areas and I think they will. We might take a small dip in sacks, but I think the overall defense will be just as good if not improved.

[SlyEli]

I agree with a lot of your points, Zona. I think people forget that sacks aren't as important as third down stop percentage. Because on third down, sacks are basically as good as an incomplete pass

[R-Mac]

This is his contract year. I expect him to work hard and finally do something. He has to get paid and money is more than enough motivation. If Ayers remains in the shadows, it will be even harder to replace Dumervil. If Ayers decides to show up, he will obviously go for the money and the salary cap will become an even bigger issue next year. We've seen these players that only decide to train hard and play hard during the final year of the contract, and usually they rest after getting the money. A reporter from Denver (don't remmeber who) already said he saw Ayers and he's looking stronger. Woodyard said he's been training with Ayers and said Ayers' mentality has changed this year. So...

[Heyneck]

Originally Posted by elibroncofan

I agree with a lot of your points, Zona. I think people forget that sacks aren't as important as third down stop percentage. Because on third down, sacks are basically as good as an incomplete pass

Sry but that is a really stupid point you are making there.

First, it is proven and backed up by facts that a sack, be it on 1st, 2nd or 3rd down is more than likely render that drive useless.

Second, sacks on 3rd down are vital. And depending on the situation more so. The pressure generated makes the passer rush his decision on that critical 3rd down. That way they don't have all the time in the world to convert on 3rd and long like our previous defenses usually did. Our success on allowing 3rd down conversion where due to our pass rush. A sack on 3rd down also means you that play is dead and there is no longer the risk of a fluke play like the Holy Stockley.

And finally but not least, it's stupid to say that a 3rd down sack is better than an incomplete pass. Why? Well if you remember correctly 2 years ago in Von's rookie season, the game against SD with the Tebow magic. If it weren't for that sack on 3rd down, SD would have been in range to make the kick in OT and win. (Now that I think of it, I think it was a stopped run behind the LOS, but anyway... you get the idea)

So yeah... nobody will buy that argument. That a sack on 3rd down is as good as an incomplete. Really dumb argument.

*More things go into it, like.. it keeps the clock ticking, it can improve the field position on a punt, there is the chance of a TO, like the one against SD this year where Doom striped sacked Rives and Carte took it home for a TD, etc.

[ZONA]

Originally Posted by Heyneck

Sry but that is a really stupid point you are making there.

First, it is proven and backed up by facts that a sack, be it on 1st, 2nd or 3rd down is more than likely render that drive useless.

Second, sacks on 3rd down are vital. And depending on the situation more so. The pressure generated makes the passer rush his decision on that critical 3rd down. That way they don't have all the time in the world to convert on 3rd and long like our previous defenses usually did. Our success on allowing 3rd down conversion where due to our pass rush. A sack on 3rd down also means you that play is dead and there is no longer the risk of a fluke play like the Holy Stockley.

And finally but not least, it's stupid to say that a 3rd down sack is better than an incomplete pass. Why? Well if you remember correctly 2 years ago in Von's rookie season, the game against SD with the Tebow magic. If it weren't for that sack on 3rd down, SD would have been in range to make the kick in OT and win. (Now that I think of it, I think it was a stopped run behind the LOS, but anyway... you get the idea)

So yeah... nobody will buy that argument. That a sack on 3rd down is as good as an incomplete. Really dumb argument.

*More things go into it, like.. it keeps the clock ticking, it can improve the field position on a punt, there is the chance of a TO, like the one against SD this year where Doom striped sacked Rives and Carte took it home for a TD, etc.

I think what he's saying is that a sack on 3rd down and an incomplete pass = the same thing (in most cases). The other team will be punting the ball. True, if they are in FG range and a sack takes them out then that's different. But you're talking about 30% of the field vs 70% of the field. In most cases, an incomplete pass is no more effective then a sack. Of course a sack can result in a TO, or FG try being too far. But I think he's talking in general terms. Most of the time, a sack on 3rd down means the team will punt. I would say that on most sacks, only 15% of them equate to a TO. Maybe a little higher as far as pushing a team out of FG range, like 30% of sacks. So really, he's for the most part, more accurate then you are.

[MagicHef]

For those that forgot, Ayers has already been a full-time starter twice in Denver, in 2010 and 2011. He managed 1.5 and 3 sacks, respectively.

Also, we have already played the, "Oh, I guess we don't have Doom, let's plug in Ayers in his spot, we'll make it up with production from other positions" game before, in 2010.

In 2009, our defense had: 40 sacks, 212 pressures, #7 overall.

2010: 23 Sacks, 178 pressures, #32 overall.

[ZONA]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

For those that forgot, Ayers has already been a full-time starter twice in Denver, in 2010 and 2011. He managed 1.5 and 3 sacks, respectively.

Also, we have already played the, "Oh, I guess we don't have Doom, let's plug in Ayers in his spot, we'll make it up with production from other positions" game before, in 2010.

In 2009, our defense had: 40 sacks, 212 pressures, #7 overall.

2010: 23 Sacks, 178 pressures, #32 overall.

Again - so much attention paid to sacks. We had 52 last year. We were a good team, made it to the playoffs. St. Louis also had 52 and sucked. Likewise, the Pats, Ravnes and 49'ers all had sacks in the mid 30's.

If we lose 10 sacks or so, but play the run better then so be it. Doesn't mean we're going to suck as a defense, and as a team. Who knows, maybe we have a better run stopping and goal line defense.

I don't think we can say Ayers is going to sack like Doom did. He won't. Simple as that. He's not a pass rush specialist. But he will play the run much better and he will still get some good pressure. He won't end up with 10+ sacks as a starter IMO, but he will play the run much better. You just change how you design your defensive plays a little bit, to suit the types of players you have. If you have a DE, that is lights out run stuffer, maybe you blitz your CB or LB more. If you have a DE that is lights out pass rusher, you obviously don't blitz your LB.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by ZONA

Again - so much attention paid to sacks. We had 52 last year. We were a good team, made it to the playoffs. St. Louis also had 52 and sucked. Likewise, the Pats, Ravnes and 49'ers all had sacks in the mid 30's.

If we lose 10 sacks or so, but play the run better then so be it. Doesn't mean we're going to suck as a defense, and as a team. Who knows, maybe we have a better run stopping and goal line defense.

Ok, how about this: Ayers had been in the league 4 years. Two years he has started, two he hasn't.

When he was a starter, we had the #32 , and #20 defense.

When he wasn't a starter, we had the #7, and #2 defense.

But, I'm sure his inability to be any sort of a threat against the pass has nothing to do with that.

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Ok, how about this: Ayers had been in the league 4 years. Two years he has started, two he hasn't.

When he was a starter, we had the #32 , and #20 defense.

When he wasn't a starter, we had the #7, and #2 defense.

But, I'm sure his inability to be any sort of a threat against the pass has nothing to do with that.

Not to mention very overrated vs the run for no earned reason whatsoever

[2KBack]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Ok, how about this: Ayers had been in the league 4 years. Two years he has started, two he hasn't.

When he was a starter, we had the #32 , and #20 defense.

When he wasn't a starter, we had the #7, and #2 defense.

But, I'm sure his inability to be any sort of a threat against the pass has nothing to do with that.

Yes, let us pretend that was the only difference between those years. That is totally how it works.

[Swedish Extrovert]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

For those that forgot, Ayers has already been a full-time starter twice in Denver, in 2010 and 2011. He managed 1.5 and 3 sacks, respectively.

Also, we have already played the, "Oh, I guess we don't have Doom, let's plug in Ayers in his spot, we'll make it up with production from other positions" game before, in 2010.

In 2009, our defense had: 40 sacks, 212 pressures, #7 overall.

2010: 23 Sacks, 178 pressures, #32 overall.

He was also out of position at SLB.

[SlyEli]

Ayers didn't play well as a 'backer in the 3-4.

In Del Rio's defense as a D-end, he's been effective when he has played, and has played at a higher level than dumervil at times (for instance, the carolina game).

His ability in del rio's defense is all that matters. Ayers took 4 years to produce at Tennessee before a dominant senior year. I bet he produces this year, in the final year of his contract. Especially when he showed signs of being a high producer last year.

[Cito Pelon]

Originally Posted by R-Mac

This is his contract year. I expect him to work hard and finally do something. He has to get paid and money is more than enough motivation. If Ayers remains in the shadows, it will be even harder to replace Dumervil. If Ayers decides to show up, he will obviously go for the money and the salary cap will become an even bigger issue next year. We've seen these players that only decide to train hard and play hard during the final year of the contract, and usually they rest after getting the money. A reporter from Denver (don't remmeber who) already said he saw Ayers and he's looking stronger. Woodyard said he's been training with Ayers and said Ayers' mentality has changed this year. So...

Interesting. Eh, maybe the light has come on in Ayers' brain. He does have some strength, he's pretty good at extending his hands, churning his legs and bull-rushing OT's. Historically he's pretty good at the point of attack, but not a quick finisher of QB's like you want from an RDE, and I don't see the light coming on that much. He just doesn't have that quick first two steps.

[Cito Pelon]

Originally Posted by elibroncofan

Ayers didn't play well as a 'backer in the 3-4.

In Del Rio's defense as a D-end, he's been effective when he has played, and has played at a higher level than dumervil at times (for instance, the carolina game).

His ability in del rio's defense is all that matters. Ayers took 4 years to produce at Tennessee before a dominant senior year. I bet he produces this year, in the final year of his contract. Especially when he showed signs of being a high producer last year.

Hey, if you, President of the Universe, Zona, and 2kback say so it's fine with me. I think you guys are grasping at straws, though.

[SlyEli]

Originally Posted by Cito Pelon

Hey, if you, President of the Universe, Zona, and 2kback say so it's fine with me. I think you guys are grasping at straws, though.

In the salary cap era, you can't pay everyone. If you have a good defense, you have to draft well to keep it up because the good players you had will get big contracts elsewhere. I don't think the defense will become less effective as a whole with ayers in, and that's all that matters anyway. But all we can do is wait and see. No one really mentions the fact that JDR is the first d-coordinator in like a decade to actually stay around for a second year here. The players' comfortability with his scheme, and his comfortability with the players, will be huge.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by elibroncofan

Ayers didn't play well as a 'backer in the 3-4.

In Del Rio's defense as a D-end, he's been effective when he has played, and has played at a higher level than dumervil at times (for instance, the carolina game).

His ability in del rio's defense is all that matters. Ayers took 4 years to produce at Tennessee before a dominant senior year. I bet he produces this year, in the final year of his contract. Especially when he showed signs of being a high producer last year.

Ayers was a starting DE in 2011.

3 sacks and zero forced fumbles (his senior season) is not my idea of dominant.

Also, judging pass rushers on a per snap basis is a bad idea, as I have pointed out before. By that metric, Woodyard is a better rusher than Miller, and Joe Mays is a better rusher than any of our DL.

[SlyEli]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Ayers was a starting DE in 2011.

3 sacks and zero forced fumbles (his senior season) is not my idea of dominant.

Also, judging pass rushers on a per snap basis is a bad idea, as I have pointed out before. By that metric, Woodyard is a better rusher than Miller, and Joe Mays is a better rusher than any of our DL.

Sack stats don't tell everything. He also had 5 hurries as well as 15 tackles for loss.

I don't think anyone thinks that Ayers will be a better pass rusher than Dumervil. But he is a better run defender, and the defense may be better as a whole with Ayers in, especially considering how many snaps Dumervil was in against the run last year.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by elibroncofan

Sack stats don't tell everything. He also had 5 hurries as well as 15 tackles for loss.

I don't think anyone thinks that Ayers will be a better pass rusher than Dumervil. But he is a better run defender, and the defense may be better as a whole with Ayers in, especially considering how many snaps Dumervil was in against the run last year.

Fun fact: Ayers had more missed tackles last season than Dumervil, even though Dumervil was in for 684 more plays.

Personal Opinion: NOTHING about our defense will improve with more Ayers. In fact, I would be willing to make a bet about it with anyone willing.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by elibroncofan

Sack stats don't tell everything. He also had 5 hurries as well as 15 tackles for loss.

I don't think anyone thinks that Ayers will be a better pass rusher than Dumervil. But he is a better run defender, and the defense may be better as a whole with Ayers in, especially considering how many snaps Dumervil was in against the run last year.

About Ayers' senior year:

Damontre Moore has had 17.5 and 21 TFL the last two seasons. 15 is not really impressive.

Also, 5 hurries is pitiful. Doom just had 39 this season, Miller had 57.