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Old 01-09-2013, 08:59 AM   #1
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Default Why Atlanta, Seattle, Denver, Houston or New England will go to the SB.

Listening to Sandy Clough on the fan. He was pointing out how the Ravens won't make the SB because they don't have a top ten offense and defense. Since the merger 1 team, the 2007 Giants, has won the SB without a top ten offense and defense. Even the 2000 Ravens offense qalified (they were ranked 10th).

I decided to look at who qualifies under those criteria of the remaining playoff teams.

Out of the NFC, only the Falcons have both. 7th in scoring offense, 5th in scoring defense, which would suggest they would at least go. If they do not go, then whoever the AFC sends will probably win the SB by this logic.

EDIT Fear Lanier pointed out I forgot about Seattle who is 9th in scoring offense and 1st in scoring defense. I am a fool!

The Patriots are 1st in scoring offense, Houston is 8th.

Interestingly, both are tied for 10th - therefore qualifying both, in scoring defense at 10th. If one was one point point better, history would eliminate that one from the SB.

The Broncos are ranked 2nd in scoring offense and 4th in scoring defense.

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Old 01-09-2013, 09:14 AM   #2
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We also have the dreaded 13-3 record too. We'll see if stats hold true or not.

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Old 01-09-2013, 09:18 AM   #3
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that's a touch criteria though. While it holds true, I think that's more of a piece of trivia than a meaningful stat.

The Patriots were a play here and a play there away from a SB championship last year, despite having the 15th ranked scoring defense and 31st ranked yard defense. The Steelers were within a TD in 2010, despite an offense ranked 12th and 14th. The Cardinals had a 4th quarter lead in 2008 with a defense ranked 28th and 19th.

I guess you could say that if the 2011 Patriot D, the 2010 Steeler O, or the 2008 Cardinal defense were better they would have won, but they were all soo close to winning anyways.
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Old 01-09-2013, 09:40 AM   #4
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that's a touch criteria though...
Agree, it's really as much about who's "hot" and playing well as anything else. Giants weren't much more than above average last season but got hot at the right time. Houston, meanwhile, was the best team in the league for a good part of this season but have just faded for some reason. Seems to me the team to keep an eye on this year is Green Bay. Kind of quietly went 11-5 with a few eyebrow raising losses and a lot of injuries. But they're heating up and getting healthy now, and having perhaps the best QB in the league certainly doesn't hurt. (now watch them go and lose Sunday...)
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Old 01-09-2013, 09:46 AM   #5
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I don't think GB has the offensive line to make it to the SB.
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Old 01-09-2013, 09:48 AM   #6
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that's a touch criteria though. While it holds true, I think that's more of a piece of trivia than a meaningful stat.

The Patriots were a play here and a play there away from a SB championship last year, despite having the 15th ranked scoring defense and 31st ranked yard defense. The Steelers were within a TD in 2010, despite an offense ranked 12th and 14th. The Cardinals had a 4th quarter lead in 2008 with a defense ranked 28th and 19th.

I guess you could say that if the 2011 Patriot D, the 2010 Steeler O, or the 2008 Cardinal defense were better they would have won, but they were all soo close to winning anyways.
Yeah. And it wasn't the Pats D that lost the Super Bowl last year. It was their top ranked O not getting it done.

Atlanta being the only NFC team listed invalidates this theory to me. I think they're the least likely to make it through of the 4.
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Old 01-09-2013, 09:52 AM   #7
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Can you really draw any solid conclusions from NFL statistics? Small samples abound.
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Old 01-09-2013, 09:53 AM   #8
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Yeah. And it wasn't the Pats D that lost the Super Bowl last year. It was their top ranked O not getting it done.

Atlanta being the only NFC team listed invalidates this theory to me. I think they're the least likely to make it through of the 4.
The key is to pressure Brady if you don't your in for a long day.
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Old 01-09-2013, 09:59 AM   #9
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I don't think GB has the offensive line to make it to the SB.
Wow, just looked and see Rodgers went down a league high 51 times. I didn't realize it was that bad. That said, still won't surprise me if they end up playing in the Superdome Feb 3.
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Old 01-09-2013, 10:05 AM   #10
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Wow, just looked and see Rodgers went down a league high 51 times. I didn't realize it was that bad. That said, still won't surprise me if they end up playing in the Superdome Feb 3.
They have to go through the Niners. If they get through the Niners and got to Atlanta with an injured John Abraham, they could. I still think it's unlikely. I would love to play them in the SB. I think we match up VERY well against GB.
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Old 01-09-2013, 10:11 AM   #11
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What about Seattle?

They are 9th in PPG on offense with the 3rd ranked rushing offense and 3rd in total yards on defense and 1st in point allowed at 15.3 PPG.

I think they are the most balanced team in the NFC.
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Old 01-09-2013, 10:16 AM   #12
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They have to go through the Niners.
Yeah, SF's defense should give them a game. I just wonder if Kaepernick is good enough to get it done. I guess we're gonna find out. I may be guilty of overvaluing GB because they looked so good against that mediocre Minnesota team and that awful Joe Webb.
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Old 01-09-2013, 10:18 AM   #13
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The key is to pressure Brady if you don't your in for a long day.
I agree, totally. But the premise here is that you need to be top 10 on both sides of the ball to win a title. But what lost it for the Pats last year was their top shelf offense only scoring 17 points. Their weaker defense didn't cost them that game.
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Old 01-09-2013, 10:19 AM   #14
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Can you really draw any solid conclusions from NFL statistics? Small samples abound.
42 years isn't a small sample.
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Old 01-09-2013, 10:21 AM   #15
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I expect two top seeds to get knocked off this weedend.
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Old 01-09-2013, 10:25 AM   #16
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I agree, totally. But the premise here is that you need to be top 10 on both sides of the ball to win a title. But what lost it for the Pats last year was their top shelf offense only scoring 17 points. Their weaker defense didn't cost them that game.
agree
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Old 01-09-2013, 10:27 AM   #17
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What about Seattle?

They are 9th in PPG on offense with the 3rd ranked rushing offense and 3rd in total yards on defense and 1st in point allowed at 15.3 PPG.

I think they are the most balanced team in the NFC.
Holy crap! I missed Seattle! They are in the top ten in both.
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Old 01-09-2013, 10:33 AM   #18
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What about Seattle?

They are 9th in PPG on offense with the 3rd ranked rushing offense and 3rd in total yards on defense and 1st in point allowed at 15.3 PPG.

I think they are the most balanced team in the NFC.

I expect them to beat Atlanta
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Old 01-09-2013, 10:52 AM   #19
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I agree, totally. But the premise here is that you need to be top 10 on both sides of the ball to win a title. But what lost it for the Pats last year was their top shelf offense only scoring 17 points. Their weaker defense didn't cost them that game.
I don't disagree. But note that the NE offense "underperformed" because the Giants defense was among the best teams in the league at pressuring and sacking the QB. In other words, the perfect defense to deploy against Tom Brady.
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Old 01-09-2013, 11:01 AM   #20
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I don't disagree. But note that the NE offense "underperformed" because the Giants defense was among the best teams in the league at pressuring and sacking the QB. In other words, the perfect defense to deploy against Tom Brady.
Yeah, but at the same time the 'Top 10' Giants O was held to 21 points by the non-top 10 Pats D that was (at least by this theory) the reason the Pats couldn't win.

Obviously it doesn't hurt to be in the top 10 in both. But it seems pretty arbitrary. The Pats and Texans are golden this year because their D allows 20.7 points per game, but the Pack is doomed because they allow 21.

I think I'll just stick to watching the games.
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Old 01-09-2013, 11:09 AM   #21
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I expect them to beat Atlanta
That wouldn't surprise me. And I can't imagine the wrath Ryan would endure if that happened. The city would demand they re-sign Michael Vick.
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Old 01-09-2013, 11:49 AM   #22
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Atlanta is soooo good at home, boy that would be disappointing for that fan base... I find myself rooting against Seattle.

Not sure why, I just hate to see Pete Carrol succeed, lol
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Old 01-09-2013, 12:10 PM   #23
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I expect two top seeds to get knocked off this weedend.
So you expect the Broncos and Falcons to lose this weekend....wow, OK.
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Old 01-09-2013, 12:19 PM   #24
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So you expect the Broncos and Falcons to lose this weekend....wow, OK.
I think he meant "higher" seeds as opposed to "top" seeds.
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Old 01-09-2013, 01:23 PM   #25
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I think he meant "higher" seeds as opposed to "top" seeds.
Yep that's what I mean't thanks.

In order how I'd rank highest seed upset possibilities this weekend.

1. Seattle over Atl
2. GB over SF
3. Ravens over Den
4. Houston over NE

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