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Old 11-11-2012, 05:15 PM   #1
Gutless Drunk
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Default 58% of the time we run on 1st down 100% of the time

1st down run vs. pass breakdown

PIT - 5-2 - 71%
ATL- 6-6 - 50%
HOU- 7-7 - 50%
OAK - 7-2- 78%
NE- 4-5 - 44%
SD- 5-4 - 56%
NO- 8-4- 67%
CIN- 4-5 - 44%
CAR -9-5 - 64%

TOTAL -55-40 - 58% RUN

We are close to being the "sex panther" of 1st down runs:

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Old 11-11-2012, 05:23 PM   #2
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Old 11-11-2012, 05:31 PM   #3
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I think Manning uses those runs to study the defense's reactions. As the game settles in he has a good idea what he wants to do with the play action so there is more the the first down runs than meets the eye especially early in the game.
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Old 11-11-2012, 05:35 PM   #4
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I actually thought it would be a lot higher. I did the numbers to support the theory that we are too predictable on 1st down. The numbers didn't really bear that out.
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Old 11-11-2012, 05:42 PM   #5
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Old 11-11-2012, 05:46 PM   #6
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In games 5-8 we ran the ball 60 times (47%) and passed it 67 times (53%) on 1st down....

http://www.milehighreport.com/2012/1...peyton-manning

Last edited by errand; 11-11-2012 at 05:50 PM..
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Old 11-11-2012, 06:35 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutless Drunk View Post
I actually thought it would be a lot higher. I did the numbers to support the theory that we are too predictable on 1st down. The numbers didn't really bear that out.
The problem is that you are taking all their 1st downs into account. If you look at our 1st downs when we have the lead or are tied I'm willing to bet your theory proves correct. Just because we start throwing on 1st down when things get dicey, doesn't mean we don't have predictable tendencies otherwise.
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Old 11-11-2012, 06:40 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutless Drunk View Post
1st down run vs. pass breakdown

PIT - 5-2 - 71%
ATL- 6-6 - 50%
HOU- 7-7 - 50%
OAK - 7-2- 78%
NE- 4-5 - 44%
SD- 5-4 - 56%
NO- 8-4- 67%
CIN- 4-5 - 44%
CAR -9-5 - 64%

TOTAL -55-40 - 58% RUN

We are close to being the "sex panther" of 1st down runs:

That's one of the funniest moments in that movie and I know alot of people miss that one.
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Old 11-11-2012, 07:12 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Agamemnon View Post
The problem is that you are taking all their 1st downs into account. If you look at our 1st downs when we have the lead or are tied I'm willing to bet your theory proves correct. Just because we start throwing on 1st down when things get dicey, doesn't mean we don't have predictable tendencies otherwise.
Yea, I knew someone would bring this up. As I did this, I really did not get that sense either. It seemed like the balance was about the same whether it was earlier or later in the game. I did not feel like verifying that, but subjectively I did not get that sense.
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