Redskins loss = Romney will win

[Kaylore]

If they lose, so does the incumbant, Right?

Ok, we all know that's just a fun circumstance. I'm personally thinking Romney wins the popular but loses the electoral college. That said, I'd much the Redskins won this weekend if I'm Obama!

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

If they lose, so does the incumbant, Right?

Ok, we all know that's just a fun circumstance. I'm personally thinking Romney wins the popular but loses the electoral college. That said, I'd much the Redskins won this weekend if I'm Obama!

Naw. I think Obama will take the popular vote too. For once, I have to agree with Karl Rove, that Hurricane Sandy might have sunk Romney's last chance. Why? Rove argued that it allowed Obama to step out of campaign mode and into president mode while Romney was pushed to the sidelines. And the applause from Chris Christie probably didn't help either. I wonder if they'll invite him to any Republican events next year?

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Naw. I think Obama will take the popular vote too. For once, I have to agree with Karl Rove, that Hurricane Sandy might have sunk Romney's last chance. Why? Rove argued that it allowed Obama to step out of campaign mode and into president mode while Romney was pushed to the sidelines. And the applause from Chris Christie probably didn't help either. I wonder if they'll invite him to any Republican events next year?

RobMe's phony "storm relief" photo op embarrassment didn't help him either.

Republicans are funny when they try to pretend they give a f_ck about anyone but themselves.

[SoCalBronco]

Polling numbers over the weekend are very interesting. I don't have a dog in this fight because I voted for Huntsman, so I'd like to think I'm a reasonably objective observer (even though I am a moderate Republican).

There appears to be significant movement towards Obama in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. He is getting some indies breaking his way. Multiple polls showing Romney's lead among Indies dwindling. Most of the polling today is either tied (CNN, Battleground, Rasmussen) or Obama +3 (PPP, Pew). PPP is the Democratic version of Rasmussen, although I might add that Tom Jensen is pretty well respected. What I find more interesting is PEW. They changed their turnout model from R+4 in early October to D+5 in their last sampling. It is unclear if this is done because they think the contours of the expected electorate will change or what. I noticed Rasmussen also changed his sampling model from an R+1 to a D+3 (he is now showing it as tied). It will be very interesting to see Gallup's final poll tomorrow. I suspect it will show a tighter race than Romney 51-46 (where they last were before the Hurricane), but what I am most interested to see is 1) whethre they still believe their likely voter screen is accurate and 2) how they break down independents.

This will be very interesting. Over at electrionprojection (Disclaimer: It is a right of center site, but he does pretty good analytical work), his conclusion is simply that who wins depends on the modeling that is used.

IMO, we will have a good idea what will happen once we see the national exit polling data for the turnout models between R, D and I. But it does seem Obama has a lead right now, albeit slight.

[Kid A]

Sorry, this election was already decided Saturday...though Obama had home field advantage:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...0#.UJcvZWk5xe8

If the U.S. presidential election were to be determined by a bull fight in Kenya then President Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney.

On Saturday villagers from western Kenya town of Khayega held a bull fighting contest between a 900 pound (410 kilogram) black bull they named Obama and a black and white 1,000 pound (460kg) bull they named Mitt Romney. Both are cattle breeds indigenous to Kenya.

Despite being smaller in size, Obama was the overwhelming favorite having won six of his last fights and he did not disappoint. After close to half an hour the bulls were separated and Obama was declared winner. Happy villagers burst onto the streets in song and dance rejoicing the victory, some carrying placards reading "Obama top most!" while others reading "Romney Can't!"

[Kaylore]

I think generally the president gets is approval in votes. That's a pretty steady trend. The only time the Skins game didn't predict the outcome correctly was in 2004, and Obama's numbers are fairly similar to Bush's at that time and he won both.

The one thing that give me hope Obama will lose is this election more people identify themselves as Republican than Democrat and Republican engagement is higher than Democrat for the first time as well. I was thinking with independents leaning Romney so heavily we had a shot, but now that's evening out. It will still be close. With so few people able to, or willing to vote on the blue cost, that will bring the total votes down and so I think Romney will win the popular and lose the electoral vote. Could be wrong, but it seems trending that way for sure.

[Rohirrim]

The trends are looking very bad for Romney over here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

A new PPP poll released late yesterday has President Obama leading Mitt Romney 50% to 47% nationally. This is the first lead of 3 points either candidate has had for weeks. Obama led in all three days of the poll (Nov. 1-3). His approval rating is now positive (48% to 47%). A week ago PPP found him to be deep under water (44% to 52%) so this is a 9-point gain in a week for Obama.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Thanks to the Supreme Court, Early Voting Is Still Taking Place in Ohio

Earlier this year, the Republican Secretary of State in Ohio, Jon Husted, decided to stop early voting on the weekend before the election (i.e., now) except for military families. The Democrats took him to court and ultimately the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that there was no basis in law to allow one group to have more voting time than everyone else.

Yesterday large numbers of Ohioans voted but the real action is today, when Democrats have chartered buses to take voters directly from churches to polling places. Already 1.6 million people have voted in Ohio, which puts the state on track to top the 2008 early voting total, even though there are nine fewer voting days this year.

Early voting is important for the Democrats in Ohio because black voters, who favor Obama about 95% to 5%, used early voting at a rate 26 times that of white voters. This effect is due to the fact that many blacks have inflexible job schedules and can't take off time on Tuesdays to vote. A professional, like a lawyer, doctor, or architect, can reserve a few hours in advance on his or her election day agenda for voting, but a bus driver or nurse can't do that.

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

...I think Romney will win the popular and lose the electoral vote. Could be wrong, but it seems trending that way for sure.

Sam Wang at Princeton has the odds of a popular vote/electoral vote mismatch at only 9%, and Romney's odds of winning the popular vote at only 6% (16-1 against).

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/1...tch/#more-8258

[Kid A]

It really looked like a split was possible for a while, but the state polls have held pretty steady these last couple weeks while the national polls have started to move to match them—that is a roughly 2pt lead for Obama. If Romney outperforms national polls, the same error would likely apply to state polling, and he would win both.

[24champ]

Karl Rove indicated this morning that Romney is likely to win Ohio. Democrats just won't have the same numbers as they did in 2008 and Romney has a large lead among independents.

My prediction is the popular vote will be narrow but it will be a wide gap in the electoral vote tally. Romney will surpass the 270 EC needed.

[BroncoInferno]

Originally Posted by 24champ

Karl Rove indicated this morning that Romney is likely to win Ohio.

Because for objective, non-biased analysis, Karl Rove is the go-to source C'mon, champ.

[DAN_BRONCO_FAN]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

If they lose, so does the incumbant, Right?

Ok, we all know that's just a fun circumstance. I'm personally thinking Romney wins the popular but loses the electoral college. That said, I'd much the Redskins won this weekend if I'm Obama!

not quite true thar
http://www.snopes.com/politics/ballot/redskins.asp
they got one wrong back in 2004 they lost at home but bush won over kerry

[SoCalBronco]

My prediction is Obama by 2 nationally.....Obama with 280-300 EVs. There has been significant movement to Obama this weekend. Romney's most favorable polls (Rays and Gallup) have him up just 1. Gallup had a 5 point lead before the storm.

Romney can still win but it would require his turnout model being right on the nose.

[DAN_BRONCO_FAN]

Vote Elway/Manning this Tuesday

[24champ]

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

My prediction is Obama by 2 nationally.....Obama with 280-300 EVs. There has been significant movement to Obama this weekend. Romney's most favorable polls (Rays and Gallup) have him up just 1. Gallup had a 5 point lead before the storm.

Romney can still win but it would require his turnout model being right on the nose.

That's only if Obama can get the same record turnout he did in 2008, and that's not likely with his campaign running around to Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire etc. States that he won by a decent margin in 2008.

Every single poll has Obama below 50 percent. That is not good news for an incumbent and also not good news for Obama losing the independent vote by double digits. CNN had their final polling data out and shows Romney up 22 percent with independents. Now, you can't possibly tell me Obama will win if those numbers are true.

The only thing that has me worried is your boy Jay Cutler backing Romney.

Appearing on his weekly segment of the "Jay Cutler Show" on WMVP-AM 1000 on Monday, the Bears quarterback was asked by co-host Tom Waddle about his voting preference: Mitt Romney or Barack Obama.

"That's a touchy subject," Cutler said initially. "Yeah, I have been following the debates and everything. I do live in Tennessee. I'm voting for Mitt (Romney) this election season."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/click/...ey-148519.html

[SoCalBronco]

Originally Posted by 24champ

That's only if Obama can get the same record turnout he did in 2008, and that's not likely with his campaign running around to Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire etc. States that he won by a decent margin in 2008.

Every single poll has Obama below 50 percent. That is not good news for an incumbent and also not good news for Obama losing the independent vote by double digits. CNN had their final polling data out and shows Romney up 22 percent with independents. Now, you can't possibly tell me Obama will win if those numbers are true.

The only thing that has me worried is your boy Jay Cutler backing Romney.



http://www.politico.com/blogs/click/...ey-148519.html

BTW, if Mitt wins tomorrow, I'm going to claim it was due to the Cutler endorsement reversing the effect of the storm. And yes, he is that important. Jay= stud.

Seriously, I think your boy has a tough hill to climb, but as always it will depend on the turnout models. If they keep it to D+2 or below, they can win it.

Here's what I'm thinking (at D+3 turnout, which I think is the most reasonable, I'm not convinced that the October Gallup and Rasmussen model is realistic, i.e. EVEN or R+):
NH- Obama by 2
VA- Romney by 2
NC- Romney by 6
FL- Romney by 3
OH- Obama by 2
WI- Obama by 2
IA- Obama by 1
CO- Romney by 2
NV- Obama by 3
PA- Obama by 3
MN- Obama by 5
MI- Obama by 6

[StugotsIII]

Many people in the know are calling this for Romney and big...due to the democrat heaving polling used by many of the pollsters out there.

[houghtam]

Originally Posted by StugotsIII

Many people in the know are calling this for Romney and big...due to the democrat heaving polling used by many of the pollsters out there.

I'm aware that by "democrat heaving polling" (sic), you mean "not only calling land lines", but I'm curious as to what you mean by "people in the know".

[Rohirrim]

Have fun with this.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...mid=tw-nytimes

[Kaylore]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Have fun with this.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...mid=tw-nytimes

That's very cool.

They did leave out Michigan and Pennsylvania. I think Romney has a small chance to steal one of those. If he does, Ohio is irrelevant.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

That's very cool.

They did leave out Michigan and Pennsylvania. I think Romney has a small chance to steal one of those. If he does, Ohio is irrelevant.

In his final estimate, Nate Silver has both states at 90% likely to go Obama. If Romney's pinning his hopes on one of those, I'm afraid he'll be SOL.

[razorwire77]

Originally Posted by houghtam

I'm aware that by "democrat heaving polling" (sic), you mean "not only calling land lines", but I'm curious as to what you mean by "people in the know".

Dick Morris.

[Rohirrim]

538's final call has Obama at 92% chance at winning. Romney at 8%. In electoral votes, they have Obama at 315 and Romney at 222.8. I'll be interested to see how close they are, or not.