Last Chance! Pick a Winna!

[Rohirrim]

Twas the night before the election and all through the country, the partisanship was crazy and everybody was claiming their guy the winner. So, the horses are in the gate. Who ya got?

[Rohirrim]

I say Obama by 303.

[Elway 4 Life]

I can pick the loser with extreme confidence. The United States, neither candidate is worth a ****. Obama sucks, Romney sucks. We are all DOOMED!

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Elway 4 Life

I can pick the loser with extreme confidence. The United States, neither candidate is worth a ****. Obama sucks, Romney sucks. We are all DOOMED!

Thanks, Debbie Downer. Now pick the winner.

[Mecklomaniac]

Originally Posted by Elway 4 Life

I can pick the loser with extreme confidence. The United States, neither candidate is worth a ****. Obama sucks, Romney sucks. We are all DOOMED!

Unfortunately too true. Whether Romney or Obama wins congress will likely still be split. Obama would have to learn to get along with Boehner (not likely) Romney would have to try and work with the feckless Reid. Both parties will be grand standing for the 2014 senate and 2016 presidential campaigns which are only a week away.

Who has time to govern when we are in perpetual campaign mode. Politicians need time to fund raise, demagogue, distort, lie and blame.

[Kaylore]

My heart says Romney, but my head says Obama. I say Romney wins popular but Obama wins the electoral college.

[Kaylore]

I don't like when any party controls everything. Both are arrogant turds that start to do horrible things when they control the big chair and both houses. Clinton and Reagan did their best work with opponents holding congress. As a Republican that does not believe people in power can help themselves because of human nature, I have no illusions that a Republican in power is any more immune to corrupting influence that power has on people any more so than a Democrat.

[DBruleU]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

My heart says Romney, but my head says Obama. I say Romney wins popular but Obama wins the electoral college.

Can't remember where I saw it, was a few weeks back when all this talk of winning the Pop. but losing the EC, was going on, but they were saying how that is highly unlikely. If Romney wins the Pop. than he will win the EC easy.

Also, Rasmussen came out with party ID today, and if it's even close to being true, and the R's show up and vote, there is no way Obama wins. Big ifs, but we shall see what happens. Rasmussen has been incredibly accurate in their party ID over the years. They had the D's way up in '08 and we all know what happened.

[ludo21]

obama in a close battle.

[SoCalBronco]

Obama based on most recent data.

[orinjkrush]

the billionaires win.

and there will be blood.

[Kid A]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

I don't like when any party controls everything. Both are arrogant turds that start to do horrible things when they control the big chair and both houses. Clinton and Reagan did their best work with opponents holding congress. As a Republican that does not believe people in power can help themselves because of human nature, I have no illusions that a Republican in power is any more immune to corrupting influence that power has on people any more so than a Democrat.

Agreed, and on the flip side, as partisan as I may be in this election, I agree with what Ezra Klein wrote today: this is an unusually big election in terms of domestic policy differences, but the campaigns have both gone over-the-top in making the differences seem like a choice for the survival of the nation:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...eak-hellscape/

Neither Obama nor Romney will turn America into a bleak hellscape

We’re at the end of a long and bitter election, and so perhaps it’s worth taking a deep breath and admitting something that typically doesn’t get said until one candidate or the other delivers his concession speech: America will survive either way.

...

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are well within the American consensus. In fact, they’re well within the Acela Quiet Car’s consensus. They’re blue state, Harvard-educated technocrats who like their information in chart form and their advisers sporting PhDs. They both believe in the genius of free markets, the necessity of a federal safety net, and the importance of a strong military. They don’t question the wisdom of the drug war, drone strikes or even most of the Bush tax cuts. Their records show they govern prudently, analytically, and honorably.

...

Economically, we can expect a quickened recovery under either president. The housing market is turning the corner, consumers are spending, banks are lending, debts are getting paid down, Europe is stabilizing, and recent months have seen steady job growth. As Bloomberg News writes, “No matter who wins the election tomorrow, the economy is on course to enjoy faster growth in the next four years as the headwinds that have held it back turn into tailwinds.”

[ludo21]

how un-democratic is it for a tie to go the house rather than the popular vote winner?

[Jekyll15Hyde]

Originally Posted by ludo21

how un-democratic is it for a tie to go the house rather than the popular vote winner?

I agree... Regardless of winner, I would like to see some amendments to the constitution, that in case of EC tie, the popular vote means something. Then again, EC going away wouldnt be too bad but I doubt the small states would ratify it.

[Blart]

I hope Romney wins popular vote, so reforming the EC becomes a bi-partisan issue.

[chadta]

I predict Obama takes an early lead, until the republicans get off work, then things get close.

[DBruleU]

Originally Posted by chadta

I predict Obama takes an early lead, until the republicans get off work, then things get close.

That's why the D's always win the early vote. I mean, who else has all that time to stand in line during working hours weeks in advance?

[Kid A]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

That's why the D's always win the early vote. I mean, who else has all that time to stand in line during working hours weeks in advance?

The truth is the complete opposite. D's win the early vote, especially on weekend days, because they don't have time to take off work on a Tuesday. A voters in white collar jobs (I would be in this group) have the flexibility to miss a couple hours of work on a weekday. A lot of poor people are in jobs where they are not given that flexibility. They work defined shifts that, if they happen to fall during election hours, tough luck. That's why they are willing to endure long hours on a Saturday—because it's their only "free" time.

[Kaylore]

I don't see either candidate winning in a land-slide. Surprised at both groups saying it will go that way. I guarantee it will not be a landslide. Gallup has republicans at a 2% advantage over Dems in voter identification this election cycle. They and Rassmussen have Romney ahead of Obama nationally. I honestly don't think Obama "wins in a landslid" especially with independents trending toward Romney.

Nor do I see a situation where Romney wins in landslide. Most recent polling has him down in Ohio and tied in Michigan, wisconsin and down in Pennsylvania with a sligh edge in Colorado and Iowa. Assuming those break the way they are trending, Obama would squeak by. Romney would need to steal Ohio, Michigan or Pennsylvania, or yield Ohio and steal Iowa, Wisconsin, and one other blue. That seems unlikely.

Regardless, the +300 prediction on either side is extremely unlikely.

[Kid A]

Originally Posted by Blart

I hope Romney wins popular vote, so reforming the EC becomes a bi-partisan issue.

I want to see a National Popular Vote initiative gain some traction too (though I'd still prefer O win the popular vote this election). Heard some guy pushing to just amend it so PV winner gets another 30 EC votes, which is an interesting compromise.

It seems likely, though, even if the EC is decided before midnight tomorrow, we won't know popular vote winner for a few days:

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/...vote-nightmare

This isn’t just a far-fetched scenario. If Obama ultimately wins the popular vote by a narrow margin, as suggested by the current average of national polls, Obama won’t lead the popular vote on Election Night and might not for weeks.

With the West Coast providing the margin of victory for any Democratic candidate in a close election, Republican presidential candidates outperform their eventual share of the popular vote until the West Coast reports its results. In 2008, California, Washington, and Oregon voted for Obama by a 4 million-vote margin, representing nearly half of his national popular vote victory.

But the time zones are not alone in delaying results from Washington, Oregon, and California. In most eastern states, the overwhelming majority of votes are counted by the end of Election Night, since only a small share of absentee or overseas ballots arrive after the election. But elections in Washington and Oregon are now conducted entirely by mail and 41 percent of California voters voted by mail in 2008. In some states, ballots only need to be postmarked by Election Day and it can take days before all of the votes arrive and weeks before they get counted, usually in modest batches once or twice a day.

Just for good measure, several big, blue cities in the East and Midwest don't always count 100 percent of their ballots on Election Night. Democrats also appear to gain from the provisional ballots counted across the rest of the country in the days following the election. Although the amount that Democrats gain from these ballots compared to the West Coast is unclear, the 2008 returns suggest that millions of votes were counted after Election Night throughout the eastern half of the country.

As a result, initial returns and derived estimates can significantly underestimate the final Democratic share of the popular vote. Even though Obama ultimately won 53.6 percent of the two party vote in 2008, Obama and McCain were still deadlocked at 50 percent when the networks projected Ohio for Obama.

If Obama performs as strongly in California, Washington, and Oregon as he did in 2008, he could trail by several percentage points in the national popular vote while giving his victory or concession speech and ultimately seize the lead in the popular vote in the following days and weeks. Even a more middling performance out West, closer to Kerry's, would still allow him to make considerable gains. Unless Election Night ends with Obama holding a lead in the popular vote or Romney holding a large enough advantage to withstand the possibility of a predictably strong showing in late ballots, we may not know the winner of the popular vote for weeks.

[bronco militia]

Romney in a land slide......

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by bronco militia

Romney in a land slide......

I'm all for that.












Oh. You mean a landslide of votes. Nevermind.

[houghtam]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

I don't see either candidate winning in a land-slide. Surprised at both groups saying it will go that way. I guarantee it will not be a landslide. Gallup has republicans at a 2% advantage over Dems in voter identification this election cycle. They and Rassmussen have Romney ahead of Obama nationally. I honestly don't think Obama "wins in a landslid" especially with independents trending toward Romney.

Nor do I see a situation where Romney wins in landslide. Most recent polling has him down in Ohio and tied in Michigan, wisconsin and down in Pennsylvania with a sligh edge in Colorado and Iowa. Assuming those break the way they are trending, Obama would squeak by. Romney would need to steal Ohio, Michigan or Pennsylvania, or yield Ohio and steal Iowa, Wisconsin, and one other blue. That seems unlikely.

Regardless, the +300 prediction on either side is extremely unlikely.

Where in sam hell are you getting your polling information?

Let's take a look at the polls, shall we? They're on the right-hand side of the page. You can expand them to show all states and polls:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Michigan - Only ONE poll in the past 2 months has Romney up, and that's by 0.6%. Every other poll shows Obama up 5-15 points. Polling average has Obama up 6.4 points.

Wisconsin - Only ONE poll in the past 2 months has Romney tied. Every other poll has Obama up 2-8 points. Polling average has Obama up by 4.8 points.

Colorado - Polling average has Obama up 1.6 points

Iowa - Only TWO polls over the past 2 months have Romney up, and that's by 1%. Every other poll has Obama up 1-5 points. Polling average has Obama up 3 points.

Pennsylvania and Ohio polling averages have Obama up 5.6 and 3.4 points, respectively.

Even if Obama were to lose any race he's not ahead by 3 or more points (something which is unprecedented with this amount of polling information this close to an election), that would mean he takes MI, WI, OH, PA, NV and IA, which puts him at 277.

Then you still have NH (O +2.8), VA (O +1.7), NC (R +1.7) and FL (R +0.2).

But that's beside the point. Again, where are you getting your polling information?

[Crushaholic]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

I say Obama by 303.

That's kind of where I'm at. It's still going to be a close election, but Romney needs more of the swing states to go his way...

[Mr.Meanie]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

I don't see either candidate winning in a land-slide. Surprised at both groups saying it will go that way. I guarantee it will not be a landslide. Gallup has republicans at a 2% advantage over Dems in voter identification this election cycle. They and Rassmussen have Romney ahead of Obama nationally. I honestly don't think Obama "wins in a landslid" especially with independents trending toward Romney.

Nor do I see a situation where Romney wins in landslide. Most recent polling has him down in Ohio and tied in Michigan, wisconsin and down in Pennsylvania with a sligh edge in Colorado and Iowa. Assuming those break the way they are trending, Obama would squeak by. Romney would need to steal Ohio, Michigan or Pennsylvania, or yield Ohio and steal Iowa, Wisconsin, and one other blue. That seems unlikely.

Regardless, the +300 prediction on either side is extremely unlikely.

Winning OH, NV, CO, WI, MI, PA and IA pushes the count to about 290, all of which I think he will easily carry. And that's not counting VA, or of course FL, which is really a coin flip at this point I think.