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Old 11-06-2012, 03:10 PM   #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rohirrim View Post
This guys posts all of them. Check it out:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Remember that more than half of republicans have already voted. In fact Colorado is the one state that is flipped from other areas. Most of Obama's voters have banked their votes early and in absentee votes. It's why they are saying to ignore exit polls. In Colorado it's the opposite where most Republicans have voted and more Democrats here are going to vote on election day.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:12 PM   #127
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Great news. I could more easily swallow (barely) another four years of Obama if I knew my home state went red.

I've been volunteering nights at the Romney campaign this cycle. We had some many people there every night we to set up extra tables and people were using their personal cell phones for the phone banks. When we walked precincts you could always find at least three people and a car to take you. It has been in and out. Republican engagement has been off the charts here in Colorado. Will that translate to a win in Colorado? No idea. Will it translate into a national win? No idea. But if we can win the turnout vote for a change, that will go a long way toward making this competitive.
I hope you were one of the 12-15 calls I hung up on every day! Is there a way I can resign from the Republican party and stop getting calls? Seriously, it's beyond irritating.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:12 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by Kaylore View Post
Remember that more than half of republicans have already voted. In fact Colorado is the one state that is flipped from other areas. Most of Obama's voters have banked their votes early and in absentee votes. It's why they are saying to ignore exit polls. In Colorado it's the opposite where most Republicans have voted and more Democrats here are going to vote on election day.
Yeah, I don't get why people are still focused on the polls when we have votes coming in...
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:13 PM   #129
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Everyone relax.

Obama promised a change that not only never came, but no steps were even taken towards it.

National gamble. You win some, you lose some. Time to move on.
Not to start a political argument but

1) this isnt true. There is plenty that was accomplished

2) Republican obstructionism played a huge role in this.

3) this country is not "worse" off than it was in 2008, no matter how many times Romney claims it to be.

4) On the whole, American life hasnt really changed. We just love to b**** that it has.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:14 PM   #130
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Also, the oversampling is an issue. I often dismiss them because both sides try argue that when they don't like the result. That said, more people identify themselves as Republicans this year, more independts favor Romney, and the sampling size in some of these polls has turnout estimated to be higher for Democrats than it was in 2008. Even the Obama campaign knows that's not going to happen.

So I think there is something the argument that some were oversampled.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:14 PM   #131
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Wouldn't be surprised at all if Colorado went red. Colorado, Florida, and NC would be the only swing states where a Romney victory wouldn't surprise me. But ultimately it becomes a moot point when Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Virginia go blue.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:14 PM   #132
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And denial ain't just a river in egypt, apparently.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:14 PM   #133
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A monkey could have predicted Obama beating McCain, in 2008. The sample size for Nate Silver's blog isn't big enough to be credible, yet...
Sorry Crush, that statement just disqualifies your opinion on this issue!

The size or duration of Silver's blog has very little to do with its veracity and relative accuracy.

His whole approach is using statistics, logic, past history and present polls then crunches his mathematical models to derive his analysis of what the polls are saying. His track record so far is stellar. You cant name any one else over the same time period that even comes close!

Take off the hurt feelings hat for a moment and look at this objectively. because the reality of the polls to this point mathematically indicate a very high likelihood that as of today we've heard the last of Mitt Romney on the national stage.

Even if by some minor miracle the aggregate of all these polls have all skewed in the same bias toward Obama and Romney wins.. which is still statistically possible (roughly 9% possible) .. that still doesn't invalidate Silver's analysis of what the polls themselves were telling us prior to the election itself.

That's what you seem to be missing. If all the polls are equally biased toward Obama and not some of them biased toward Romney as well, then that is a different story about how the polls themselves selected their likely voters and that, if it should happen will be for everyone, including Silver, THE story of the day to chew on staring tomorrow and to adjust for for future elections.

But at this point, putting preferences aside, the objective poll numbers we have in total very much favor a victory by Obama tonight. Lock, Stock and barrel!

Last edited by Hulamau; 11-06-2012 at 03:17 PM..
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:15 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang View Post
Not to start a political argument but

1) this isnt true. There is plenty that was accomplished

2) Republican obstructionism played a huge role in this.

3) this country is not "worse" off than it was in 2008, no matter how many times Romney claims it to be.

4) On the whole, American life hasnt really changed. We just love to b**** that it has.
Sorry man, I lost it at "There is plenty that was accomplished"
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:15 PM   #135
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Yeah, I don't get why people are still focused on the polls when we have votes coming in...
Because polls have historically predicted elections?

I do agree there seems to be less enthusiasm for the election this year, for a number of reasons im sure. People are probably pretty jaded by government in general, all the infighting and bickering. This probably wont go away regardless of who is president, though i think Romney has the better chance at cooperation (simply because i dont think the dems will go lockstep against him). THATS SAID, if Romney truly tries to attack healthcare as his first order of business, he'll probably meet similar resistence.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:17 PM   #136
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Its all a conspiracy roh. The polls that favor romney are the only ones that matter

But id be incredibly disheartened with Romney won. Incredibly. And im not even a huge Obama fan, clearly everything I believe in falls left of him. But ugh, I personally don't even understand what Republicans see in Romney other than "he's not obama"
Last year they were yelling, "Anybody but Mitt!"
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:17 PM   #137
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It'd be pretty remote that ALL the polls would be wrong--as they all have different models.

Early voting isn't necessarily indicative of a change in the overall electorate, it's hard to know what to do with those numbers other than see that more Republican counties are voting earlier (there's still a limited number of votes possible in such counties). What's important are those who are changing there vote from Obama in 2008 to Romney 2012, and early voting gives us no indication of any evidence of that. It'd be a mistake to suggest that early voting debunks the polls.

This is wishful thinking.
Not only is it wishful thinking, but it also demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding on how election demographics actually work. I lived in Ohio for several years and my wife is from one of the many rural counties that have a long history of voting Republican. But it doesn't take a resident to look at Wikipedia and see the obvious.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_..._in_Ohio,_2008

The most populous county that went heavy McCain in 2008 was Butler County (home of Hamilton, OH), with just over 100,000 votes cast.

For frame of reference, Cuyahoga County (home of Cleveland, OH) had over 450,000 votes cast for Obama...this is as many votes as the top six counties that voted for McCain.

Furthermore, if you take all the counties that went heavily for Obama in 2008 (>10 points), you have 1.4 million votes. The McCain counties account for about 950,000.

1,400,000 - 5% = 1,330,000
950,000 + 15% = 1,092,500

That gives Obama 55% of the vote, with over half of all votes in Ohio cast, and 2/3 of the counties' votes counted. Romney would have to make up a HUGE amount of ground in the remaining 30 counties which were pretty evenly split in 2008.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:17 PM   #138
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Remember that more than half of republicans have already voted. In fact Colorado is the one state that is flipped from other areas. Most of Obama's voters have banked their votes early and in absentee votes. It's why they are saying to ignore exit polls. In Colorado it's the opposite where most Republicans have voted and more Democrats here are going to vote on election day.
I think they are far more sophisticated than you give them credit.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:17 PM   #139
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Thank God it is almost over. Please let Obama win. I'm not a fan of his I just think Romney is the wrong guy for the job.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:19 PM   #140
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I love how Obama doesn't get any blame for the bad relationship with congress. When they went to him after the 2008 election and laid out some ideas his exact words were "I won." And they didn't pass a single piece of bipartisan support legislation. They lost the house because of it and he's been unapologetic. He's from a blue state. He has no experience working across the aisle. He is annoyed at the idea he has to earn support for any of his ideas. He thinks he just needs to lay it out there and if you don't like what he says, you're stupid. The culture of give and take in Washington seems to have compeltely baffled him - that or he's so arrogant he's annoyed at the idea that he should need to get consensus from anyone on anything at all.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:19 PM   #141
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Voted last Friday. Glad to see so many getting out and voting. Just one stump for those of us here in Utah. Vote for the 2 amendment addendum, to waive property taxes for active military.
That would be very cool, if that were adopted here. Unfortunately, Kansas hasn't found a tax they don't like...
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:22 PM   #142
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I love how Obama doesn't get any blame for the bad relationship with congress. When they went to him after the 2008 election and laid out some ideas his exact words were "I won." And they didn't pass a single piece of bipartisan support legislation. They lost the house because of it and he's been unapologetic. He's from a blue state. He has no experience working across the aisle. He is annoyed at the idea he has to earn support for any of his ideas. He thinks he just needs to lay it out there and if you don't like what he says, you're stupid. The culture of give and take in Washington seems to have compeltely baffled him - that or he's so arrogant he's annoyed at the idea that he should need to get consensus from anyone on anything at all.
Too bad that McConnell stated, even before the inauguration, that his number one job was to make Obama a one term president. That just created a huge credibility issue for the idea that Obama was the problem.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:23 PM   #143
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But at this point, putting preferences aside, the objective poll numbers we have in total very much favor a victory by Obama tonight. Period!
Kerry vs. Bush part deux only with the roles reversed. One side is so pissed off at the incumbent that they are looking for any way to stretch, dismiss, or interpret poll numbers in a way that gives their guy a better chance than he has.

Even if you don't believe the poll numbers, look at where the betters are betting.

You'd have a better chance of getting the clap from Tim Tebow than Romney has of winning the electoral college.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:24 PM   #144
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Sorry man, I lost it at "There is plenty that was accomplished"
take it for what it's worth since it is clearly a biased source, but they did provide references:

http://obamaachievements.org/list

but this one is my favorite because it's kind of funny how it's presented.

WTF has Obama done
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:25 PM   #145
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Sorry man, I lost it at "There is plenty that was accomplished"
But when they had lost the house and had one last chance to pass whatever they wanted, they passed the legislation which would turn around the future of this country. They didn't pursue something petty like tax reform, they made sure to get gays to serve openly in the military. And you say he didn't accomplish anything.


Yes, that was sarcasm.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:26 PM   #146
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Sorry man, I lost it at "There is plenty that was accomplished"
You may not agree with his policies (fair, thats your opinion)..but he didnt do nothing
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/mag...ents035755.php
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:27 PM   #147
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Most creative/outrageous political ad I've seen was last night.

A Chinese guy with his Mao cap and uniform on was speechifying to a Chinese audience (all with their Mao caps and uniforms), lecturing them about the "fall of empires".

The list was the Greeks, the Romans, and the Americans. All fell because of taxing and spending (This is all in Chinese with English sub-titles).

Then, at the end the lecturer says, "We own all of their debt! They work for us now!". And he laughs, and the audience laughs. Gotta hand it to whoever created that ad, that pushed all the buttons.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:27 PM   #148
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But when they had lost the house and had one last chance to pass whatever they wanted, they passed the legislation which would turn around the future of this country. They didn't pursue something petty like tax reform, they made sure to get gays to serve openly in the military. And you say he didn't accomplish anything.


Yes, that was sarcasm.
Yes, thats the only thing Obama did...repeal dont ask, dont tell. Come on.

And as much as Republicans love talking about the democrats having majorities, they always forget about the blue dogs who were lockstep in obstruction too...demos in name only.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:28 PM   #149
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Kerry vs. Bush part deux only with the roles reversed. One side is so pissed off at the incumbent that they are looking for any way to stretch, dismiss, or interpret poll numbers in a way that gives their guy a better chance than he has.

Even if you don't believe the poll numbers, look at where the betters are betting.

You'd have a better chance of getting the clap from Tim Tebow than Romney has of winning the electoral college.
Exactly. For the second time in a row, the not-republican wins. Not necessarily on his merit but due to the clowns being sent against him. Bush-Kerry all over again.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:31 PM   #150
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You don't think a difference in early voting trends from 4 years ago (D's down 4%, R's up 14%, total swing of 18%...) isn't huge? Wow.
That's not what those stats mean; there's no voter ID, just how the counties voted over all. If early voting is up in remote, unpopulated Republican counties, I bet turnout on election day is down. Just because they are voting earlier doesn't mean there are more voters in those counties.

Republicans rarely have a problem with turnout (for obvious reasons); Dems have much harder time turning out their voters (labor class, poverty stricken) etc.
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