Last Chance! Pick a Winna!

[Mecklomaniac]

Originally Posted by chadta

I predict Obama takes an early lead, until the republicans get off work, then things get close.

I predict MSNBC calls it for Obama at 5:01 eastern.... Later in the evening Chris Mathews goes into convulsions when they change it to Romney.

[Old Dude]

I think it will be Obama by a nose, with Romney winning the popular vote by a nose-hair.

The popular vote might be a little skewed due to Sandy suppressing voter turnout in the northeast, but I don't think the electoral outcomes will be affected.

I don't see much change in either house of Congress. Maybe 1 or 2 seats in the Senate and a half-dozen in the House.

[Garcia Bronco]

Originally Posted by ludo21

how un-democratic is it for a tie to go the house rather than the popular vote winner?

Because the popular vote favors population centers which have different needs than those of smaller populated places. That's why it goes to the House, which is Represented by population. Madison and the boys worked this out and its scalable. Wicked smart guys with time to think on these things.

[houghtam]

Originally Posted by Garcia Bronco

Because the popular vote favors population centers which have different needs than those of smaller populated places. That's why it goes to the House, which is Represented by population. Madison and the boys worked this out and its scalable. Wicked smart guys with time to think on these things.

Yes! But...

The actual process by which it is decided in the House is a bit of a cluster****.

Each state only gets one vote. That vote is determined by a vote of all of the House Representatives for that particular state.

"In this event, the House of Representatives is limited to choosing from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation votes en bloc – each delegation having a single vote; the District of Columbia does not receive a vote. A candidate must receive an absolute majority of state delegation votes (i.e., at present, a minimum of 26 votes) in order for that candidate to become the President-elect. Additionally, delegations from at least two-thirds of all the states must be present for voting to take place. The House continues balloting until it elects a President."

So for example, Michigan, a blue state, has 8 Republicans and 6 Democrats serving in the House. Their vote would likely go to Romney. But North Carolina, likely a red state, has 7 Democrats and 6 Republicans. Their vote would likely go to Obama.

They did work it out, and it is scalable, but by no means is it a great solution whatsoever.

[24champ]

Predict Romney will win 301 to Obama's 237.

Romney will win Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, VA, NC, CO, NV and New Hampshire.

[houghtam]

Originally Posted by 24champ

Predict Romney will win 301 to Obama's 237.

Romney will win Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, VA, NC, CO, NV and New Hampshire.

Care to wager?

[24champ]

Originally Posted by houghtam

Care to wager?

Avatar bet?

[Vegas_Bronco]

415 to Romney...9 sacks and 13 forced fumbles.

[houghtam]

Originally Posted by 24champ

Avatar bet?

Sure! If Romney doesn't take OH, IA, WI, FL, VA, NC, NV and NH (the states you claimed he would), you have to change your avatar to an Obama pic of my choosing for the next year.

If Obama doesn't take MI, WI, OH, PA, NV and IA (the states I claimed he would), I have to change my avatar to a Romney pic of your choosing for the next year.

If we both lose, the bet is a draw, and no one needs to do anything.

Changes must be made by Inauguration Day.

[24champ]

Originally Posted by houghtam

Sure! If Romney doesn't take OH, IA, WI, FL, VA, NC, NV and NH (the states you claimed he would), you have to change your avatar to an Obama pic of my choosing for the next year.

If Obama doesn't take MI, WI, OH, PA, NV and IA (the states I claimed he would), I have to change my avatar to a Romney pic of your choosing for the next year.

If we both lose, the bet is a draw, and no one needs to do anything.

Changes must be made by Inauguration Day.

Deal.

Although I would agree with you that PA is going Obama. It will be within 5 points though.

[houghtam]

Originally Posted by 24champ

Deal.

Although I would agree with you that PA is going Obama. It will be within 5 points though.

Polling averages are a bit above 5 points, but I agree it will be probably slightly under that.

Honestly on your list, the only states I think Romney has a prayer of getting are FL and NC. Half of them haven't been in play for months.

We'll see.

[razorwire77]

Latest AP early voting results. The fat lady hasn't started singing, but she's starting her vocal warm up.


Colorado
Votes: 1.6 million
Democrats: 35 percent
Republicans: 37 percent
Florida
Votes: 4.3 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent
Iowa
Votes: 614,000
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 32 percent
Nevada
Votes: 702,000
Democrats: 44 percent
Republicans: 37 percent
North Carolina
Votes: 2.7 million
Democrats: 48 percent
Republicans: 32 percent
Ohio
Votes: 1.6 million
Democrats: 29 percent
Republicans: 23 percent

[Kid A]

FiveThirtyEight has obviously been at the center of "debate" this election. His final forecast leaves little for hedging bets:

A few more polls to add. But Obama at 91% to win Electoral College based on today's data so far. fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) November 6, 2012

There's been a pretty clear shift toward Obama in national polls. Based on most recent data, he may lead by 2-3% in popular vote.

— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) November 6, 2012

Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal.

— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) November 6, 2012

[spdirty]

Prediction: Romney 325, Obama 213

By Dick Morris on November 5, 2012

Yup. That’s right. A landslide for Romney approaching the magnitude of Obama’s against McCain. That’s my prediction.


On Sunday, we changed our clocks. On Tuesday, we’ll change our president.


Romney will win the states McCain carried in 2008, plus: Florida, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota.


In the popular vote, Romney will win by more than 5 points.
The Obama campaign made the following key mistakes:


• It bet the farm on negative ads in swing states. It didn’t realize that Mitt’s convention speech and the three debates would give him the chance to live down the charges and demonstrate — through facts and his demeanor — that they were baseless.


• Obama had no Plan B if the negatives didn’t work. He never really laid in a convincing defense of his record, except to recall the mess that he inherited and to try to make people believe things were better. He had no vision for his second term, except more of same. He never moved to the center — the shift that reelected Bill Clinton.


• Obama drew his list of swing states too narrowly. He did not contemplate that he would be forced to defend Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan or Minnesota and squandered his money contesting unwinnable states like North Carolina. When Romney bypassed Obama’s “firewall” states (like the Germans did the French Maginot Line in World War II), the president had not laid in the necessary prophylactic irradiation of negative ads, and three of the states embraced Romney.


• By focusing on the negative, Obama sacrificed first his personal popularity and then his dignity and presidentiality. No longer was he the hope and the change. He became nothing more than a nasty partisan, throwing epithets at his rival. A president does not let himself be quoted as saying that his opponent is a “bullsh–ter” or that voting is the best “revenge.” Even his dress was wrong. Instead of appearing in a dark suit, he dressed in an open-neck white shirt, trying to be everyman but succeeding only in not looking like a president.


• Since he offered nothing more than a negative campaign and a grab-bag of special-interest pleadings for single women, unions, college kids and minorities, Obama failed to inspire the turnout that he needed. Against Santorum and Gingrich, Obama could have made the case that their prospective presidencies were sufficiently dangerous that liberals and Democrats must rush to the polls to stop them. But against the congenial Romney, the warnings rang hollow.


• In the first debate, Obama was terrible. We’ll likely find out what his excuses are after the polls close. Did he have the flu? Was it the altitude? Had he, as Bob Woodward suggested, just received a dose of bad news? Why did he appear distracted?


• Obama should have gotten the facts out quickly about Benghazi rather than let them drip, drip, drip out over six weeks. He could then have handled the crisis and won points for determination and toughness. Instead, to the very end, he looked like he was covering up the fact of a terrorist attack. Because he was.


• After Sandy, Obama visited New Jersey and surveyed the damage with Gov. Chris Christie (R). He should have stayed on the storm, superintending relief efforts, urging FEMA on, absorbing the lessons of Bush’s failure to cope well with Katrina. Instead, he returned to the partisan wars and the strident speeches in swing states.


None of this should take away from Romney’s brilliant campaign. By staying on the economy and not being tempted into side issues like Libya, Mitt kept the focus where it needed to be and never let up. His campaign’s foray into Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin was vital to his chances of victory.



More about what Mitt did right in my post-election column on Thursday. But for now, let’s celebrate the new president we are about to elect.



http://www.dickmorris.com/prediction...13/#more-10128

[razorwire77]

Originally Posted by spdirty

Prediction: Romney 325, Obama 213

By Dick Morris on November 5, 2012

Yup. That’s right. A landslide for Romney approaching the magnitude of Obama’s against McCain. That’s my prediction.


On Sunday, we changed our clocks. On Tuesday, we’ll change our president.


Romney will win the states McCain carried in 2008, plus: Florida, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota.


In the popular vote, Romney will win by more than 5 points.
The Obama campaign made the following key mistakes:


• It bet the farm on negative ads in swing states. It didn’t realize that Mitt’s convention speech and the three debates would give him the chance to live down the charges and demonstrate — through facts and his demeanor — that they were baseless.


• Obama had no Plan B if the negatives didn’t work. He never really laid in a convincing defense of his record, except to recall the mess that he inherited and to try to make people believe things were better. He had no vision for his second term, except more of same. He never moved to the center — the shift that reelected Bill Clinton.


• Obama drew his list of swing states too narrowly. He did not contemplate that he would be forced to defend Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan or Minnesota and squandered his money contesting unwinnable states like North Carolina. When Romney bypassed Obama’s “firewall” states (like the Germans did the French Maginot Line in World War II), the president had not laid in the necessary prophylactic irradiation of negative ads, and three of the states embraced Romney.


• By focusing on the negative, Obama sacrificed first his personal popularity and then his dignity and presidentiality. No longer was he the hope and the change. He became nothing more than a nasty partisan, throwing epithets at his rival. A president does not let himself be quoted as saying that his opponent is a “bullsh–ter” or that voting is the best “revenge.” Even his dress was wrong. Instead of appearing in a dark suit, he dressed in an open-neck white shirt, trying to be everyman but succeeding only in not looking like a president.


• Since he offered nothing more than a negative campaign and a grab-bag of special-interest pleadings for single women, unions, college kids and minorities, Obama failed to inspire the turnout that he needed. Against Santorum and Gingrich, Obama could have made the case that their prospective presidencies were sufficiently dangerous that liberals and Democrats must rush to the polls to stop them. But against the congenial Romney, the warnings rang hollow.


• In the first debate, Obama was terrible. We’ll likely find out what his excuses are after the polls close. Did he have the flu? Was it the altitude? Had he, as Bob Woodward suggested, just received a dose of bad news? Why did he appear distracted?


• Obama should have gotten the facts out quickly about Benghazi rather than let them drip, drip, drip out over six weeks. He could then have handled the crisis and won points for determination and toughness. Instead, to the very end, he looked like he was covering up the fact of a terrorist attack. Because he was.


• After Sandy, Obama visited New Jersey and surveyed the damage with Gov. Chris Christie (R). He should have stayed on the storm, superintending relief efforts, urging FEMA on, absorbing the lessons of Bush’s failure to cope well with Katrina. Instead, he returned to the partisan wars and the strident speeches in swing states.


None of this should take away from Romney’s brilliant campaign. By staying on the economy and not being tempted into side issues like Libya, Mitt kept the focus where it needed to be and never let up. His campaign’s foray into Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin was vital to his chances of victory.



More about what Mitt did right in my post-election column on Thursday. But for now, let’s celebrate the new president we are about to elect.



http://www.dickmorris.com/prediction...13/#more-10128

[Mr.Meanie]

Originally Posted by spdirty

Prediction: Romney 325, Obama 213
blah blah
By Dick Morris

Wow. No forecasting models, no empirical data supporting his argument... just pure fantasy. I think that blog post is the perfect encapsulation of what Bill Maher talks about when he describes these guys living in The Bubble.

[Garcia Bronco]

Originally Posted by houghtam

Yes! But...

The actual process by which it is decided in the House is a bit of a cluster****.

Each state only gets one vote. That vote is determined by a vote of all of the House Representatives for that particular state.



So for example, Michigan, a blue state, has 8 Republicans and 6 Democrats serving in the House. Their vote would likely go to Romney. But North Carolina, likely a red state, has 7 Democrats and 6 Republicans. Their vote would likely go to Obama.

They did work it out, and it is scalable, but by no means is it a great solution whatsoever.

It's a tie. This is a great solution, as good as any other and it's simple, and it's decided in a fair way.

[Rohirrim]

I've got to hand it to Dick Morris; Not only does he live in Wonderland, he also throws a great tea party.

[Kid A]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

I've got to hand it to Dick Morris; Not only does he live in Wonderland, he also throws a great tea party.

Dick Morris is the best. His Romney prediction makes me more confident of an Obama victory than 538's forecast:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...litical-pundit

Is Dick Morris the world's worst political pundit?

...

Morris' ability to make statements and predictions that are often so, so wrong is exceptional. He has been called the "worst pundit in America". The more cynical among us might argue that the word "America" should be replaced with "world". Indeed, to recall all of Morris's spectacular failures would require more space than Santa is allotted for his Christmas list.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

I went with Obama by 270 to 280 just to cover the usual GOP voter fraud spread.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by Kid A

The truth is the complete opposite. D's win the early vote, especially on weekend days, because they don't have time to take off work on a Tuesday. A voters in white collar jobs (I would be in this group) have the flexibility to miss a couple hours of work on a weekday. A lot of poor people are in jobs where they are not given that flexibility. They work defined shifts that, if they happen to fall during election hours, tough luck. That's why they are willing to endure long hours on a Saturday—because it's their only "free" time.

You beat me to it.

DBruleU's gift for getting most everything bass-ackwards is extraordinary.

[Old Dude]

We might not even get a winner tonight if the provisional ballots in Ohio outnumber the margin between the candidates.

[houghtam]

Originally Posted by Old Dude

We might not even get a winner tonight if the provisional ballots in Ohio outnumber the margin between the candidates.

Ohio may be the tipping point state, but it almost certainly will not be the state that decides the election. Big difference. We'll know tonight.

[razorwire77]

No way this goes all night. Obama will be the projected winner by 10 p.m. MST.

Despite frantic efforts by the MSM to grab ratings by selling this as a down to the wire horse race, it's not. What we have is a relatively close election, that has been trending blue for the past couple of weeks. This reminds me of 04 when the Kerry supporters were all riled up and I told them the same thing.

[Old Dude]

Poll closing times (EST):

7:00 pm: GA, IN, KY, SC, VT, VA
7:30 pm: NC, OH, WV
8:00 pm: AL, CT, DE, DC, FL, IL, ME, MD, MA, MS, MO, NH, NJ, OK, PA, RI, TN
8:30 pm: AR
9:00 pm: AZ, CO, KS, LA, MI, MN, NE, NM, NY, ND, SD, TX, WI, WY
10:00 pm: IA, MT, NV, UT
11:00 pm: CA, HI, ID, OR, WA
1:00 am: AK

Of course, just because the polls close at a certain time doesn't mean they all report as quickly. There are always glitches.

But it looks to me like - among the battleground states - VA, NC and OH will be the ones most closely watched at the outset.