Is the Obama campaign desperate?

[pricejj]

While I was in lodo yesterday for the Bronco game, the Obama campaign had placed leaflets on cars advertising $12/hour to join the campaign. Throughout the run-up to the election there have been several indicators that may also show signs of desperation...


- Obama campaign mails 3.5 million brochures of his economic plan, detailing increased government spending to voters:
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolit...nd-term-agenda

- Obama resorts to insults in the final days of his campaign with "bullsh*tter" remarks and attacks during debates:
http://www.therightsphere.com/2012/1...bama-campaign/

- Obama attack ads focus on his manufactured "war on women":
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/28/ge...ducated-women/

- Obama campaign overstates Democrat participation in the swing-state vote, while Romney widens lead among Independents:
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10...turnout-model/

[Rohirrim]

He sure has you worked up.

[Blart]

no.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[pricejj]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

He sure has you worked up.

I will definitely defend liberty at every turn. I just can't help but view this as a desperate campaign for the President. Taking an objective view, you would have to agree...

[pricejj]

Originally Posted by Blart

no.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Even you posted a thread remarking about canvassing in swing-states. Why would a guy like you, from California, focus on desperately seeking voters in states where you don't live?

[Blart]

Originally Posted by pricejj

Even you posted a thread remarking about canvassing in swing-states. Why would a guy like you, from California, focus on desperately seeking voters in states where you don't live?

I'm always desperate to get my candidates elected, to make this country a better democracy.

Your question was about Obama, and the answer is no. He's just a guy who (recently) learned that playing it safe, taking the aloof front-runner position, isn't going to cut it in 2012.

[DenverBrit]

Originally Posted by pricejj

While I was in lodo yesterday for the Bronco game, the Obama campaign had placed leaflets on cars advertising $12/hour to join the campaign. Throughout the run-up to the election there have been several indicators that may also show signs of desperation...


- Obama campaign mails 3.5 million brochures of his economic plan, detailing increased government spending to voters:
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolit...nd-term-agenda

- Obama resorts to insults in the final days of his campaign with "bullsh*tter" remarks and attacks during debates:
http://www.therightsphere.com/2012/1...bama-campaign/

- Obama attack ads focus on his manufactured "war on women":
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/28/ge...ducated-women/

- Obama campaign overstates Democrat participation in the swing-state vote, while Romney widens lead among Independents:
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10...turnout-model/

Better than spending it on attack ads.

No worries that this will happen with Romney's plan.

I doubt he's been told what it is yet.

[Drek]

Originally Posted by Blart

I'm always desperate to get my candidates elected, to make this country a better democracy.

Your question was about Obama, and the answer is no. He's just a guy who (recently) learned that playing it safe, taking the aloof front-runner position, isn't going to cut it in 2012.

Except it is and his massive ground game (which those leaflets came from) will be a key reason for it.

Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa are pretty much already set blue thanks to early voting. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania aren't flipping. That's 270 already. Virginia and NH have recent polls showing them as either dead heats or slightly leaning Obama. Florida is a straight up dead heat. North Carolina has narrowed of late and isn't that far out of reach.

Romney needs to pitch damn near a shutout on all those states. The math just doesn't add up. But then math is clearly not a GOP strong point.

[ghwk]

Originally Posted by Drek

Except it is and his massive ground game (which those leaflets came from) will be a key reason for it.

Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa are pretty much already set blue thanks to early voting. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania aren't flipping. That's 270 already. Virginia and NH have recent polls showing them as either dead heats or slightly leaning Obama. Florida is a straight up dead heat. North Carolina has narrowed of late and isn't that far out of reach.

Romney needs to pitch damn near a shutout on all those states. The math just doesn't add up. But then math is clearly not a GOP strong point.

The GOP doesn't need math when they own the voting machines. Heil Mitt Putin, well done Comrade!

[pricejj]

Originally Posted by Drek

Except it is and his massive ground game (which those leaflets came from) will be a key reason for it.

Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa are pretty much already set blue thanks to early voting. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania aren't flipping. That's 270 already. Virginia and NH have recent polls showing them as either dead heats or slightly leaning Obama. Florida is a straight up dead heat. North Carolina has narrowed of late and isn't that far out of reach.

Romney needs to pitch damn near a shutout on all those states. The math just doesn't add up. But then math is clearly not a GOP strong point.

None of your post is accurate.

1. There are more registered Republicans in Ohio, than Democrat. Romney is leading among Independents.
2. Romney doesn't need Nevada to win.
3. Iowa is a toss-up. Romney doesn't need Iowa to win.
4. Wisconsin is a toss-up. Romney doesn't need Wisconsin to win.
5. Romney doesn't need Pennsylvania to win.
6. All polls show Romney leading in Virginia.
7. New Hampshire is a toss-up. Romney doesn't need New Hampshire to win.
8. All polls show Romney leading in Florida.
9. All polls show Romney leading in North Carolina by so much, that Obama has pulled advertising in the state.
10. I math for a living, and would challenge you anytime.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Goober Nation vs. Science...

Mon Oct 29, 2012 at 03:56 AM PDT

Nate Silver singlehandedly dismantling the myth of Mitt-mentum

The Telegraph, one of the UK's better, if editorially right-of-centre, newspapers, has an interesting article about Nate Silver this morning:

Nate Silver, the geeky statistician who is singlehandedly dismantling the myth of Mitt-mentum

It's by Dan Hodges, a "Blairite cuckoo in the Miliband nest":

Where most political commentators output is the product of briefings, gossip and personal perception, Silver deals in cold, hard facts. And at the moment, Silver’s facts are being fired like bullets into the heart of the Romney campaign. Over the past week Romney has had a clear strategy; give the impression of momentum. Demonstrate the post-debate surge is continuing. Get people talking about how the race is his to lose.

Nate Silver is Mitt Romney’s nemesis. Not intentionally; although he admits to being an Obama supporter, his whole career is predicated on getting his predictions right. Like he did in 2008, when "Poblano" accurately predicted the result of 49 of the 50 states, and all 35 senate races. And it is that reputation for accuracy that is so damaging to the Romney campaign’s attempt to sustain their precious “momentum” narrative. People listen to Silver. And over the past 48 hours, the narrative is starting to shift. “Mitt-mentum? Not so fast” – US News & World report. “Romney’s Momentum Seems To Have Stopped. “The momentum myth” – Washington Post.

[Kid A]

THIS is what desperate looks like:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...6a24_blog.html

Mitt Romney’s new television ad suggesting that the auto bailout will result in American jeep jobs getting shipped to China has been widely pilloried by news organizations, both nationally and in Ohio. The Romney campaign’s response: It is expanding the ad campaign.

A Dem source familiar with ad buy info tells me that the Romney campaign has now put a version of the spot on the radio in Toledo, Ohio — the site of a Jeep plant. The buy is roughly $100,000, the source says.

The move seems to confirm that the Romney campaign is making the Jeep-to-China falsehood central to its final push to turn things around in the state. The Romney campaign has explicitly said in the past that it will not let fact checking constrain its messaging, so perhaps it’s not surprising that it appears to be expanding an ad campaign based on a claim that has been widely pilloried by fact checkers.

Politifact gives the Jeep ad a "Pants on Fire":

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...ans-china-ame/

The Romney campaign ad says Obama "sold Chrysler to Italians who are going to build Jeeps in China" at the cost of American jobs. The ad leaves the clear impression that Jeeps built in China come at the expense of American workers.

The ad miscasts the government’s role in Fiat’s acquisition of Chrysler, and it misrepresents the outcome. Chrysler’s owners had been trying to sell to Italy-based Fiat before Obama took office. The ad ignores the return of American jobs to Chrysler Jeep plants in the United States, and it presents the manufacture of Jeeps in China as a threat, rather than an opportunity to sell cars made in China to Chinese consumers. It strings together facts in a way that presents an wholly inaccurate picture.

And that is Mitt's big, final sales pitch: a total and complete lie that he his getting ripped for in the media but hopes will trick just enough people in the final days. He's running an incredibly cynical campaign, especially considering he does have some ugly economic numbers to work with without going to these lows.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by pricejj

I will definitely defend liberty at every turn. I just can't help but view this as a desperate campaign for the President. Taking an objective view, you would have to agree...

And taking an objective view, one would have to ascribe the same motive of desperation to Romney's claims that his momentum, which petered out after the first debate, has continued to climb. Of course, if there's one thing a professional huckster like Romney knows, it's how to bull**** the suckers (as the jeep campaign, noted above, clearly illustrates).

[pricejj]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

And taking an objective view, one would have to ascribe the same motive of desperation to Romney's claims that his momentum, which petered out after the first debate, has continued to climb. Of course, if there's one thing a professional huckster like Romney knows, it's how to bull**** the suckers (as the jeep campaign, noted above, clearly illustrates).

The polls indicate that your post is not accurate. Obama has a reason to be desperate.

from Gallup:

Early Voters (Already Voted):
Romney - 52%
Obama - 45%

Election Day Voters:
Romney - 51%
Obama - 46%

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by pricejj

The polls indicate that your post is not accurate. Obama has a reason to be desperate.

from Gallup:

Early Voters (Already Voted):
Romney - 52%
Obama - 45%

Election Day Voters:
Romney - 51%
Obama - 46%

The polls you select and decide to believe in.

From 538:

Obama's chance of winning: 72.9%
Romney's: 27.0%

You must be naive when it comes to elections. This is what the last couple of weeks always looks like. If it warms your little heart to think of Obama is "desperate," well, who am I to stop you? Enjoy yourself.

[pricejj]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

This is what the last couple of weeks always looks like.

You're right, the last couple of weeks, the eventual winner tends to run away with the lead...as Romney's doing, according to Gallup.

However, the point of this thread is to ask if Obama's campaign is indeed as desperate as his actions indicate.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by pricejj

You're right, the last couple of weeks, the eventual winner tends to run away with the lead...as Romney's doing, according to Gallup.

However, the point of this thread is to ask if Obama's campaign is indeed as desperate as his actions indicate.

It looks to me like every other campaign I've ever seen in the final weeks. Perhaps you are looking at it through somewhat hysterical eyes?

[BroncoInferno]

Originally Posted by pricejj

You're right, the last couple of weeks, the eventual winner tends to run away with the lead...as Romney's doing, according to Gallup.

Gallup is an outlier, and in any case only tracks the popular vote, which isn't relevant. Real Clear Politics and 538 both show Obama leading in the electoral college. So, no, they aren't anymore desperate than the Romney side, which is still running ads in Ohio about Chrysler outsourcing to China even though the lie has been debunked. I call it desperate (and highly cynical) when your closing push is a debunked lie.

[pricejj]

Originally Posted by BroncoInferno

Gallup is an outlier, and in any case only tracks the popular vote, which isn't relevant. Real Clear Politics and 538 both show Obama leading in the electoral college. So, no, they aren't anymore desperate than the Romney side, which is still running ads in Ohio about Chrysler outsourcing to China even though the lie has been debunked. I call it desperate (and highly cynical) when your closing push is a debunked lie.

Which would be more desperate, Romney's Jeep ad, or Obama's self-proclaimed "war on women" that he has been pushing on American women for the last 3 years?

[Obushma]

Originally Posted by pricejj

2. Romney doesn't need Nevada to win.

Romney won't win Nevada, Nevadas GOP was taken over by real conservatives. They aren't doing **** to help Romney.

[BroncoInferno]

Originally Posted by pricejj

Which would be more desperate, Romney's Jeep ad, or Obama's self-proclaimed "war on women" that he has been pushing on American women for the last 3 years?

They are both typical of a late campaign push to try and seal the deal. It's a close election and both sides are trying to scoop up last second votes.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by pricejj

Which would be more desperate, Romney's Jeep ad, or Obama's self-proclaimed "war on women" that he has been pushing on American women for the last 3 years?

Didn't Romney say he wanted to overturn Roe v Wade and close down Planned Parenthood? Or has that changed this week? It's hard to keep up with Romney. Yesterday, he wanted to get rid of FEMA. Today, he's their biggest supporter.

[pricejj]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Didn't Romney say he wanted to overturn Roe v Wade

Completely false. The hysterics are all yours, comrade.

But keep pushing your "war on women".

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by pricejj

Completely false. The hysterics are all yours, comrade.

But keep pushing your "war on women".

[BroncoInferno]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Pricejj will probably deny what is now before his very eyes.