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Old 06-19-2013, 09:18 AM   #2101
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PIT media reporting Letang will be traded for sure. Negotiations went nowhere. Shero wasn't going to go higher than 6 and Letang isn't having it (a wise choice on his part as the market will bear more....he can definitely hit 7 or 7.5 if Streit is getting over 5). PIT also would not give him a full NMC....as those were reserved only for Sid and Geno.

Expect a trade shortly or at the draft at latest.

Let the bidding begin.

Only thing that makes me hesitate a bit about this report is that it's Rob Rossi doing the reporting so I'm taking it with a grain of salt....but it does seem to make sense even tho it's Rossi.
Rumors abound that Pitt is also interested in Bernier.

Malkin for Bernier and a pick.
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Old 06-19-2013, 09:37 AM   #2102
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I totally understand where he is coming from. Backs picked very high have not been living up to their billing, while forwards tend to have a much better success rate. I would definitely pick Mckinnon with that selection, he may not quite have the talent of Crosby or Ovechkin, but he is every bit as good as Stamkos and Tavares and Kane.
that's a flawed way of looking at it. most of the better young defenders in the NHL right now were picked between #2 and #10 overall.
some were thought about as a #1 pick but the #1 overall selection was eventually used on a forward.

this is a supremely stupid move and i hope it's a bluff to force Florida into trading up into the #1 slot as it's widely known they badly covet MacKinnon.
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Old 06-19-2013, 09:42 AM   #2103
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Rumors abound that Pitt is also interested in Bernier.

Malkin for Bernier and a pick.
No we aren't interested in him. And Geno now has a NMC.
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Old 06-19-2013, 09:57 AM   #2104
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that's a flawed way of looking at it. most of the better young defenders in the NHL right now were picked between #2 and #10 overall.
some were thought about as a #1 pick but the #1 overall selection was eventually used on a forward.

this is a supremely stupid move and i hope it's a bluff to force Florida into trading up into the #1 slot as it's widely known they badly covet MacKinnon.
That is not really true though. Voynov, Karlson, Weber, Subban, Shultz and Keith were all 2nd rounders. Dougie Hamilton, Doughty, Ekman-Larson, Suter and Pietrangelo were top 10 picks.

If you look at the history of the number 1 overall picks, forwards tend to pan out and defenders and goalies not so much. I think the reason is that forward skills are much easier to project, if you are big, strong, fast and have good stick skills you will probably succeed at forward. Defense and goaltending requires more time to learn and is more difficult to project.
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Old 06-19-2013, 09:58 AM   #2105
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that's a flawed way of looking at it. most of the better young defenders in the NHL right now were picked between #2 and #10 overall.
some were thought about as a #1 pick but the #1 overall selection was eventually used on a forward.

this is a supremely stupid move and i hope it's a bluff to force Florida into trading up into the #1 slot as it's widely known they badly covet MacKinnon.
There are a few diamonds in the rough, Justin Faulk for example was a second round draft pick, but you are spot on in terms of the majority of top defensemen.
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Old 06-19-2013, 10:28 AM   #2106
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No we aren't interested in him. And Geno now has a NMC.
Geno would wave his NMC to move to come to LA. Lots of women here for him.
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Old 06-19-2013, 11:12 AM   #2107
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That is not really true though. Voynov, Karlson, Weber, Subban, Shultz and Keith were all 2nd rounders. Dougie Hamilton, Doughty, Ekman-Larson, Suter and Pietrangelo were top 10 picks.

If you look at the history of the number 1 overall picks, forwards tend to pan out and defenders and goalies not so much. I think the reason is that forward skills are much easier to project, if you are big, strong, fast and have good stick skills you will probably succeed at forward. Defense and goaltending requires more time to learn and is more difficult to project.
Karlsson was the #15 overall pick in 2008.

2008
Doughty,Bogosian,Pietrangelo,Schenn
2009
Hedman,OEL,Cowen
2010
Gudbranson
2011
Larsson,Hamilton,Brodin

this doesn't even include 2012 when 8 of the top 10 were D men.
they're all in the minors right now but at least half are considered to be some of the best prospects in the game.

more importantly than that. almost every top young or even top defense man period is being re-signed by their teams because it costs so much on the open market to sign them.
it is harder and harder to acquire a franchise or top tier D man and the franchises that do lock them up.

the sample size of D men going #1 is small and scouting has improved greatly since the days of it being a dooming selection at #1.
the amount of forwards who bust out vs D men in the top 10-15 is about the same rate. that D men busting out is a myth because franchises like to put asses in the seats and that comes from scoring and not D.
like a QB being the face of the franchise instead of a CB.
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Old 06-19-2013, 11:29 AM   #2108
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more importantly than that. almost every top young or even top defense man period is being re-signed by their teams because it costs so much on the open market to sign them.
it is harder and harder to acquire a franchise or top tier D man and the franchises that do lock them up.
While true, it's pretty funny that the core of the Bruins ridiculous all world defense came from outside their organization and they really didn't have to give up a heck of a lot to get any of them.

They've only drafted two of their top 8 dmen.
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Old 06-19-2013, 11:43 AM   #2109
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Karlsson was the #15 overall pick in 2008.

2008
Doughty,Bogosian,Pietrangelo,Schenn
2009
Hedman,OEL,Cowen
2010
Gudbranson
2011
Larsson,Hamilton,Brodin

this doesn't even include 2012 when 8 of the top 10 were D men.
they're all in the minors right now but at least half are considered to be some of the best prospects in the game.

more importantly than that. almost every top young or even top defense man period is being re-signed by their teams because it costs so much on the open market to sign them.
it is harder and harder to acquire a franchise or top tier D man and the franchises that do lock them up.

the sample size of D men going #1 is small and scouting has improved greatly since the days of it being a dooming selection at #1.
the amount of forwards who bust out vs D men in the top 10-15 is about the same rate. that D men busting out is a myth because franchises like to put asses in the seats and that comes from scoring and not D.
like a QB being the face of the franchise instead of a CB.
Of those guys only Doughty, Pietrangelo, OEL have really proven themselves. Bogosian and Schenn certainly won't make any lists of top defensemen any time soon. Hedman has been a disappointment, he showed some improvement this year but will need to show a lot more soon. Hamilton looks like a really solid prospect, but it is still early days for him.

If you look at forwards from the top 10 in those same drafts:

2008:

Steven Stamkos (the only one who has really performed at the level of Doughty and Pietrangelo)

2009:

John Tavares, Matt Duchene, Evander Kane, Nazem Kadri (all have done at least as well as Hedman or OEL)

2010:

Tyler Seguin, Jeff Skinner, Taylor Hall (have all outperformed Gudbranson)

2011:

The nuge, Landeskog and Huberdau have all done more than Hamilton and Brodin.

The story is the same in 2007, 2006. In 2005 only Crosby has really performed well of the forwards and certainly Jack Johnson has the rest of the lot beat. In 2004 Ovechkin and Malkin are obvious head and shoulders above the rest, but among the rest Blake Wheeler and Ladislav Smid are the top so again a win for forwards.

There are a few outlier years (2005 and 2008 where defensemen have done as well or better than forwards drafted in the top 10) but the majority of recent drafts that we can evaluate have favoured forwards.

You are right about Karlson, not sure why I had him as a 2nd rounder.
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Old 06-19-2013, 11:50 AM   #2110
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While true, it's pretty funny that the core of the Bruins ridiculous all world defense came from outside their organization and they really didn't have to give up a heck of a lot to get any of them.

They've only drafted two of their top 8 dmen.
I think that has to do with a combination of changing financial circumstances in the old NHL (Chara) and late bloomers like Ference and Seidenberg.

With the salary cap increase of the last few years (even with the contraction this coming season) a lot of teams are spending much more than they used to, so players are not hitting the market as often. Suter and Parise last season highlighted a thin class, Brad Richards the year before.
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Old 06-19-2013, 11:54 AM   #2111
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Of those guys only Doughty, Pietrangelo, OEL have really proven themselves. Bogosian and Schenn certainly won't make any lists of top defensemen any time soon. Hedman has been a disappointment, he showed some improvement this year but will need to show a lot more soon. Hamilton looks like a really solid prospect, but it is still early days for him.

If you look at forwards from the top 10 in those same drafts:

2008:

Steven Stamkos (the only one who has really performed at the level of Doughty and Pietrangelo)

2009:

John Tavares, Matt Duchene, Evander Kane, Nazem Kadri (all have done at least as well as Hedman or OEL)

2010:

Tyler Seguin, Jeff Skinner, Taylor Hall (have all outperformed Gudbranson)

2011:

The nuge, Landeskog and Huberdau have all done more than Hamilton and Brodin.

The story is the same in 2007, 2006. In 2005 only Crosby has really performed well of the forwards and certainly Jack Johnson has the rest of the lot beat. In 2004 Ovechkin and Malkin are obvious head and shoulders above the rest, but among the rest Blake Wheeler and Ladislav Smid are the top so again a win for forwards.

There are a few outlier years (2005 and 2008 where defensemen have done as well or better than forwards drafted in the top 10) but the majority of recent drafts that we can evaluate have favoured forwards.

You are right about Karlson, not sure why I had him as a 2nd rounder.
the problem with that thinking, i do agree with some of the guys you listed no doubt. a forward is considered to be a success if he scores 20+ goals or nets 50+ points in a given season.
a d man takes 2-3 years longer to excel but they're not considered a success unless they score 40+ points or they are immediate lock down guys.
Hall has severely underperformed so far in his career, he was lauded as the #1 player in his draft year until Seguin passsed him up late, Kadri has been terrible until this season.

if you take a D men and a forward evenly 50% of the time at #1 the split will be about even in terms of bust vs great.

i had a long detailed post about this subject on HFboards a few months ago comparing and contrasting the top 15-20 picks with forwards vs d men.
i didn't want to rehash it but it's about the same and top D men are harder to acquire than forwards.
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Old 06-19-2013, 12:01 PM   #2112
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While true, it's pretty funny that the core of the Bruins ridiculous all world defense came from outside their organization and they really didn't have to give up a heck of a lot to get any of them.

They've only drafted two of their top 8 dmen.
you can get guys in the later rounds but it takes a lot of luck and insanely good scouts to find them. then you still have to develop the players.
a lot of the later rounds successes are guys who were undersized and went to college or guys who were considered to have big flaws and the teams just straight up developed them well.

Chara wasn't Chara until about 2 years before he left Ottawa, i mean hell, Boychuck was drafted by the Avs and they finally gave up on him and then he went to Boston and bloomed late.
the Wings did that stuff for years, drafted guys late and developed them insanely well.
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Old 06-19-2013, 12:37 PM   #2113
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Most of the Rangers D are first rounders...

Staal, MDZ, Moore, McD......I think there is less risk in defense than offense in the early first unless you have a franchise center/winger available.
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Old 06-19-2013, 12:50 PM   #2114
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the problem with that thinking, i do agree with some of the guys you listed no doubt. a forward is considered to be a success if he scores 20+ goals or nets 50+ points in a given season.
a d man takes 2-3 years longer to excel but they're not considered a success unless they score 40+ points or they are immediate lock down guys.
Hall has severely underperformed so far in his career, he was lauded as the #1 player in his draft year until Seguin passsed him up late, Kadri has been terrible until this season.

if you take a D men and a forward evenly 50% of the time at #1 the split will be about even in terms of bust vs great.

i had a long detailed post about this subject on HFboards a few months ago comparing and contrasting the top 15-20 picks with forwards vs d men.
i didn't want to rehash it but it's about the same and top D men are harder to acquire than forwards.
Hall was in the top 10 in the league for points this year, that is hardly disappointing and is very close to being a point per game guy in his career. Kadri played mostly in the AHL previously because his style did not fit what an antiquated coach wanted him to do in Toronto - he proved his doubters wrong this year by being 2nd on the team in scoring and hitting nearly a point per game.

Defensemen do take longer to mature, partly because being on defense requires more instincts and experience and partly because some skills you just don't build in junior hockey such as skating backwards at high speed, which you need to be able to do in the NHL but not in lower leagues.

The other and more hidden factor is of course the balance between forwards and defensemen - there are 100% more forwards than defensemen in the league, and by virtue of pure statistics there are also about 100% more good forwards than good defensemen. This is just how it goes when the roster is made up of about 7 backs and 13 forwards (the same argument extends to why there are so few good goalies).

I do agree that in terms of pure bust risk, it is pretty similar, but I think the chance of hitting it big is greater on a forward than a defenseman. You can protect your forwards, so if you have a guy like Tavares who is not a great skater and can't play defense at all, you can have him on PP and have him only take faceoffs in the offensive zone - it is much harder to protect your defense the same way.
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Old 06-19-2013, 04:44 PM   #2115
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Rumors have it that Danny Briere has been informed he is being bought out in Philly - will be interesting to see where he ends up and what kind of deal he accepts/
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Old 06-19-2013, 05:30 PM   #2116
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Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 2s

The 5 teams I believe are in the mix, to varying degrees, on Jonathan Bernier: Florida, Minny, Philly, Tor and NYI...
More teams please...drive up the price.
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Old 06-19-2013, 05:33 PM   #2117
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Why is Toronto on that list? WTF
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Old 06-19-2013, 06:26 PM   #2118
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No we aren't interested in him. And Geno now has a NMC.
Not for a few days though right? And does he only have it for next year?
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Old 06-19-2013, 07:01 PM   #2119
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Why is Toronto on that list? WTF
Be a good pairing, Reimer/Bernier.

Too bad the Canadians don't have a need for a goalie. They would be all over a young French speaking butterfly goaltender.
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Old 06-19-2013, 08:04 PM   #2120
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What a 2nd period!

Hope the Hawks can get one or 2 more and get out of Beantown with a split and recover the home ice advantage.
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Old 06-19-2013, 08:17 PM   #2121
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Be a good pairing, Reimer/Bernier.

Too bad the Canadians don't have a need for a goalie. They would be all over a young French speaking butterfly goaltender.
The best thing that can happen to a Montreal goalie is when he is run out of town.
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Old 06-19-2013, 08:54 PM   #2122
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What a 2nd period!

Hope the Hawks can get one or 2 more and get out of Beantown with a split and recover the home ice advantage.
Looking unlikely. Boston's figured out Crawford's gimp hand.
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Old 06-19-2013, 09:03 PM   #2123
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Ooof...crawford has been **** tonight.
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Old 06-19-2013, 09:14 PM   #2124
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Ooof...crawford has been **** tonight.
**** it. Bring in Emery. At least he has a glove hand.
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Old 06-19-2013, 09:29 PM   #2125
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Duncan Keith has sucked tonight.
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