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Old 08-07-2012, 11:55 AM   #1
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Default 2012 Bronco stat projections (fantasy football related)

all right, so I'm trying to work through my projections for this year. Broncos are a tough group to project - I'm seeing lots of variation out there.

I don't do projections for every team, but Broncos are a team that I feel I follow closely enough that I should have a good feel for - better than some of the so called "gurus" out there doing projections for their own web pages.

So, here's basically what I've got so far (subject to change as pre-season chugs along):

Manning: 356/539 (66% comp rate), 4096 yards, 29 TD, 11 int
McGahee: 218 rushes, 937 yards, 7 TD, 14 rec, 82 rec yards
Hillman: 100 rushes, 430 yards, 3 TD, 20 rec, 201 rec yards, 1 rec TD
Moreno: 80 rushes, 360 yards, 3 TD, 30 rec, 270 rec yards, 2 rec TD
Ball: 33 rushes, 143 yards, 1 TD
Decker: 90 rec, 1035 yards, 7 TD
Demaryius Thomas: 70 rec, 980 yards, 8 TD
Caldwell: 26 rec, 306 yards, 2 TD
Stokley: 22 rec, 274 yards, 2 TD
Tamme: 60 rec, 630 yards, 5 TD
Dreessen: 26 rec, 299 yards, 3 TD

Obviously, I'm calling that Moreno makes the team and contributes as the #3 back, ahead of Ball. I'm also seeing Tamme as Mannings clear 3 option in the passing game. I'm seeing a roughly 45/55 run/pass ratio, 44 team TD's, >4000 total passing ards, and roughly 1900 rushing yards.

Thoughts?
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Old 08-07-2012, 12:42 PM   #2
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IMO you are low on the tds for manning and mcgahee.

I suspect manning will have roughly 35tds. Mcgahee should easily eclipse the 1k mark and have 10 or so tds...He is going to ball out this year.

I also think DT and Decker both get 1k yards.


I know we play some tough teams D this year, but I love our offense and if KO could put up 25tds, with a bunch of missed plays (drops in endzone-phantom fumbles etc) then I feel confident PFM can easily add 10 to that.
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Old 08-07-2012, 12:51 PM   #3
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So you have Manning sitting out a couple games or what? the total rec yards don't add up.
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Old 08-07-2012, 12:59 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by underrated29 View Post
IMO you are low on the tds for manning and mcgahee.

I suspect manning will have roughly 35tds. Mcgahee should easily eclipse the 1k mark and have 10 or so tds...He is going to ball out this year.

I also think DT and Decker both get 1k yards.


I know we play some tough teams D this year, but I love our offense and if KO could put up 25tds, with a bunch of missed plays (drops in endzone-phantom fumbles etc) then I feel confident PFM can easily add 10 to that.
I'd like to see Decker & Demaryius both pass 1k, but I see Manning spreading the ball out more, especially to the backs and TE's. That's kind of where I'm going with that.

re: passing TD's - point taken. I think I'm probably a little low there.

re: McGahee - I'm concerned that he's on the wrong side of 30 and has Hillman waiting in the wings. Although, if Fox has shown us anything, it's that he likes veterans and he loves the running game. Maybe I will bump McGahee a tad.
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Old 08-07-2012, 01:03 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bronco Boy View Post
So you have Manning sitting out a couple games or what? the total rec yards don't add up.
yeah, I know it doesn't balance out. I've debated with myself long and hard if it should, and i decided that it really isn't important. Consider the imbalance is more of indecision on my part as to who will get a certain amount of yards, so I give them to everyone, if that makes any sense.

it stems from my process - I basically average projections from as many guys on the web as I can find - fftoday, cbssportsline (x2), and footballguys (x4). That makes the baseline, that I go and tweak on my own. it usually ends up not being balanced out, but the passing/receiving yards imbalance is probably further out than I like. good catch.
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Old 08-07-2012, 01:11 PM   #6
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you say manning with 29 td's and a total of 30 receiving td's in the rest of the projections...you saying we have a backup in garbage time or manning gets hurt?
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Old 08-07-2012, 01:59 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Conklin View Post
you say manning with 29 td's and a total of 30 receiving td's in the rest of the projections...you saying we have a backup in garbage time or manning gets hurt?
Or a half back option, reverse option, fake punt or field goal.
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