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Old 07-30-2012, 08:58 AM   #1
TerrElway
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Default Broncos below average at every position?

The view of one writer:

Full story here:http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...ucated-guesses

"I'm short on the Broncos because they were an 8-8 team that played well over their heads last season. They had the point differential of a 5.8-win team and went 7-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Teams that outplay their score differential at a rate between two and 2.5 wins lose an average of 2.4 games more in the subsequent season. This line requires them to improve by two games to hit their over. Sure, swapping in Peyton Manning is going to overcome a lot of otherwise likely regression, but I don't think he's going to be able to drag a team that's below-average at virtually every position any higher than 9-7."

Wonder if he means on offense? Doom and Miller below average? Champ?

As opposed to Indy who was always stacked at every position with big timers like Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon and all those linemen not named Saturday that are so good no one knows who they are.
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Old 07-30-2012, 09:00 AM   #2
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that's what she said
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Old 07-30-2012, 09:10 AM   #3
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Old 07-30-2012, 09:20 AM   #4
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it's stupid and irresponsible to use last year's team as any benchmark at any phase of the game to what this team can do...shortened training camp alone last year compared to a full one this year will make a difference
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Old 07-30-2012, 09:30 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TerrElway View Post
The view of one writer:

Full story here:http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...ucated-guesses

"I'm short on the Broncos because they were an 8-8 team that played well over their heads last season. They had the point differential of a 5.8-win team and went 7-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Teams that outplay their score differential at a rate between two and 2.5 wins lose an average of 2.4 games more in the subsequent season. This line requires them to improve by two games to hit their over. Sure, swapping in Peyton Manning is going to overcome a lot of otherwise likely regression, but I don't think he's going to be able to drag a team that's below-average at virtually every position any higher than 9-7."

Wonder if he means on offense? Doom and Miller below average? Champ?

As opposed to Indy who was always stacked at every position with big timers like Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon and all those linemen not named Saturday that are so good no one knows who they are.
Grantland has a bias for Tebow and consequently since the Broncos traded Tebow, they are now somewhat overly critical of the Broncos. Take their analysis with a grain of salt.
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Old 07-30-2012, 09:32 AM   #6
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Whatever! Just like Rabb said, these idiots go back to last year and assume everything is the same. Yes, we need improvements in certain areas but I believe we've addressed those in the draft and free agency. These days any moron with a computer can be a so-called expert!
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Old 07-30-2012, 09:38 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TerrElway View Post
Wonder if he means on offense? Doom and Miller below average? Champ?
Not to mention special teams. Clearly we're at/near the top of the league there.
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Old 07-30-2012, 09:46 AM   #8
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> Sure, swapping in Peyton Manning is going to overcome a lot of otherwise likely regression,

What likely regression is he talking about? Our defense is surely going to be better this year than last with the youth and experience.
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Old 07-30-2012, 09:51 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
> Sure, swapping in Peyton Manning is going to overcome a lot of otherwise likely regression,

What likely regression is he talking about? Our defense is surely going to be better this year than last with the youth and experience.
I don't think he was talking about player regression; I think his point was that we won a lot of close games last year, and this year chances are those games will swing the other way. From a statistical standpoint, we got a lot of bounces last year, and chances are they go the other way this year. The question is, are we talented enough to overcome that.
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Old 07-30-2012, 10:06 AM   #10
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why are we assuming that the ball is going to bounce the other way?

what's that mathematical term used where you can't assume something just because something else happened beforehand?
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Old 07-30-2012, 10:16 AM   #11
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I mean, if you think the ball will bounce our way 100% of the time, go for it. Marion Barber isn't on our schedule this year.

From a purely statistical standpoint, you're not going to get every call, every bounce, etc. We got a lot last year.
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Old 07-30-2012, 10:30 AM   #12
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I think Denver does look below average at most positions. I mean just look at the Fantasy Rankings or Denver's players. I think this is because Denver is young on the OL and WR. and then they have new parts at TE, CB and S.

Denver has a lot of unknown so they will be undervauled IMO.

Does not mean anything though.
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Old 07-30-2012, 10:36 AM   #13
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Last year's team was last year's team.
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Old 07-30-2012, 10:39 AM   #14
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Below average at virtually every position?

Champ, Clady, Manning, Doom, Miller, McGahee, Kuper, Colquitt, Prater are below average?

We're certainly not loaded -- just like the bulk of teams, but virtually all of our players are below average?

Someone needs to take the crack pipe away from this guy.
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Old 07-30-2012, 10:42 AM   #15
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this is for degenerate gamblers...

FYI, the house almost always wins
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Old 07-30-2012, 10:43 AM   #16
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It's really hard to say what sort of talent level we have on offense, to be honest.

With Tebow we were running almost an exact opposite style of offense to the one we'll see with Manning taking the snaps. So we don't really know how good some of our players are yet.

Take Decker, for example. He was more or less invisible with Tim at QB, but at the start of the year last season he had 20 receptions for 270 yards and 4 TD's in four games with Orton at QB. It's a small sample size, but an encouraging one. With a vastly better QB than Orton now at the helm there's a lot of reason to be optimistic that he'll become a very good player. But until we see it we can't bank on it.

Demaryius Thomas could go either way. He put up very impressive numbers late in the year with limited targets, so we're all optimistic that with Manning now throwing the ball he'll thrive even more... but maybe he won't. Perhaps his production was a product of just being able to go deep against single coverage all day, maybe having to run a larger variety of routes against more complex coverage will prove difficult for him.

It's the same for the O-Line. Last year they struggled in pass protection quite a bit, but with Manning things should prove much easier in that regard. On the flip side, they looked great in the running game last year... but how much of that was down to Tebow? Quite a lot, you'd imagine. Can they provide adequate run blocking now in a more conventional offense? We didn't run the ball well at all last year before the QB change, and in 2010 the running game was a complete disgrace. You have to be able to pick up short yardage conversions consistently or drives will stall, we can't just expect to pass the ball every down and win.

Denver's offense is a complete unknown at this point. I can see why people are sceptical... but I also have a hard time imagining an offense that isn't very good with Peyton Manning throwing the ball.
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Old 07-30-2012, 10:50 AM   #17
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Denver is on a balance beam is more accurate.

I'm really excited about this team going in but, I'm smart enough to be cautious understanding our lack of depth and talent.

I could see Denver at 6-10 or 10-6 depending on injuries and lack of growth at certain positions. Doom and Von must stay healthy.

Imo Denver still needs DT MLB S C/G RB WR KR/PR specialist
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Old 07-30-2012, 11:04 AM   #18
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This Bozo writer still thinks Goodman is on the team.
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Old 07-30-2012, 12:14 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vancejohnson82 View Post
why are we assuming that the ball is going to bounce the other way?

what's that mathematical term used where you can't assume something just because something else happened beforehand?
It's the gambler's fallacy. You argue your luck is due. For example, if you flip a coin 15 times and it comes up heads every time, what are the odds the next flip it will come up heads? 50% The same as every other time.

There are some variables that make this different, though. Denver has a tougher schedule and some players got older. Some of the things that went our way were very unlikely (the Bears fumble, the Dolphins letting us win) and you could argue we won't get as many lucky bounces.

But yes, just because you were really lucky or really unlucky, doesn't mean that trend will or won't continue.
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Old 07-30-2012, 12:30 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vancejohnson82 View Post
why are we assuming that the ball is going to bounce the other way?

what's that mathematical term used where you can't assume something just because something else happened beforehand?
Foneco.

It's Foneco.
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Old 07-30-2012, 12:32 PM   #21
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We have a quarterback that knows how to play all four quarters. I don't see it being that close, this year. If Manning has a bad game, it will be an ugly result. There won't be too many games decided by 7 points or less (IMO)...
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Old 07-30-2012, 12:42 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RhymesayersDU View Post
I think his point was that we won a lot of close games last year, and this year chances are those games will swing the other way. From a statistical standpoint, we got a lot of bounces last year, and chances are they go the other way this year. The question is, are we talented enough to overcome that.
I took him to be saying this, also, and while I'm not convinced that "regression to the mean" would apply here (too many variables change from one year to the next) the guy makes an interesting point.
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Old 07-30-2012, 01:03 PM   #23
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Pure hyperbole. That said, we do have A LOT of holes and question marks on our roster.
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Old 07-30-2012, 07:51 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fedaykin View Post
Below average at virtually every position?

Champ, Clady, Manning, Doom, Miller, McGahee, Kuper, Colquitt, Prater are below average?

We're certainly not loaded -- just like the bulk of teams, but virtually all of our players are below average?

Someone needs to take the crack pipe away from this guy.
Champ: From reports has lost a step
Clady: Annually overrated
Manning: Best QB of the generation...but he is getting older
Doom: Will he be suspended?
Miller: Best up and comer on the team
McGahee: Solid back
Kuper: He has a LOT of rehab to go and he wasn't all-pro even before the injury. I've always been a huge fan though.
Colquitt & Prater: They're kickers. Beyond which, I'm pretty sure Prater missed quite a few last year.

Now don't get me wrong, we're going to win the Super Bowl this year but I can understand if people who aren't fans look at our team and believe that apart from Manning we're not all that intimidating
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Old 07-30-2012, 08:06 PM   #25
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I agree that we were very lucky last year. But for the most part the close wins that we had were so close, in part, because the offense was so inept. With Payton Manning and even a similar defense, doubt that is that much of a problem.

It is the schedule that could be problematic
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