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Old 04-23-2012, 02:42 PM   #51
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I think you're full of a ****...or dont read a lot of their articles.
Good to know.
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Old 04-23-2012, 02:42 PM   #52
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I would be surprised if Cox falls that far. I have viewed him as a poor mans Marcel Dareus since the start of this year's draft process.
Not me. I don't see the complete player worthy of top 15 pick. I think he has talent but I wouldn't think he better then Dan Williams (#26 pick overall) of 2010 draft.
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Old 04-23-2012, 03:08 PM   #53
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Cox is the best option now, but Brockers is the best long-term because he has so much upside and potential.

A 20 year old first year starter doing what he did in the best conference in college football should be noted. People say he doesn't have pass rush ability, but it's not like he won't learn. He's gonna be a 21 year old rookie and he's only going to get better.

He's the perfect 3-4 DE IMO. Plus he can be an asset on ST's. He is going to be a stud at the next level, even if it might take a year or two.
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Old 04-23-2012, 03:16 PM   #54
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...I was just busting Tony's balls...
I actually believed you until I saw that you also neg repped me. Your hate for IAOFM would be more legit if you actually ever posted anything half as good, and if your criticisms were a little more specific and substantive. We're here to talk Broncos football and that article brought up a lot of discussion points. Nobody's forcing you to read it, right?
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Old 04-23-2012, 03:24 PM   #55
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I actually believed you until I saw that you also neg repped me. Your hate for IAOFM would be more legit if you actually ever posted anything half as good, and if your criticisms were a little more specific and substantive. We're here to talk Broncos football and that article brought up a lot of discussion points. Nobody's forcing you to read it, right?
I don't have a hate for IAOFM. As I said, I was busting your balls. It was just an observation that two of the only things you have been doing lately are posting their articles and slamming Tebow. Now you are slamming me for not offering opinions or writing in-depth, which I do, when time allows.

I'm not here to start a dick measuring contest against other writers on the internet. Everyone involved in the Broncos Online Community are doing a great job of representing the team. That goes for other forums and websites I am not a part of as well.

When I want to spend time giving quality analysis on something, I'll write an article for it. I shoot the **** on the board with the boys and joke around. I'm highly sarcastic on here and have been joking a lot lately in lieu of family issues. If that offends you, oh well.
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Old 04-23-2012, 03:26 PM   #56
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Not me. I don't see the complete player worthy of top 15 pick. I think he has talent but I wouldn't think he better then Dan Williams (#26 pick overall) of 2010 draft.
Lets take a look at Dan Williams:
6'2", 327 lbs., 5.19 forty, 7.88 3-cone, 27 bench reps, 32" vert., 33 1/2" arm length...

He had 70 tackles, 2.5 sacks as a rSenior...48 tackles, 1.5 sacks as a Junior.

Analysis:
1. He was a redshirt Senior, and should be dominant because he is older than everyone else.
2. He is short and heavy, with a relatively slow forty and 3-cone.
3. Good tackle production in college, almost no pass-rush ability.
4. He is not particularly strong (27 bench reps).
5. Projection: Backup NT in a 4-3.

Now, lets take a look at Fletcher Cox:
6"3 1/2", 298 lbs. 4.79 forty, 7.07 3-cone, 30 bench reps, 26" vert., 34 1/2" arm length...

He had 56 tackles, and 5 sacks as a true Junior, and 29 tackles, 2.5 sacks as a Junior.

Analysis:
1. As a true Junior, he played his last year in college as a 20 year old (very young).
2. He has great height and weight...started his career at 240 lbs. Athletic freak, with phenomenal forty and 3-cone for a 300 lb. man.
3. Good tackle production in college, showing solid (and improving) pass-rush ability.
4. Good strength (30 reps) for a guy with 34 1/2" arms...but not great
5. Projection: Starting UT in a 4-3...with athletic ability to be special if he continues to improve.


In conclusion, Dan Williams and Fletcher Cox are two completely different players, with two completely different skill sets. It's no mystery why Dan Williams hasn't done much in the NFL so far. Everyone get's a little stronger with age (to a point), but Williams has too far to go, to be a dominant force on the inside, and lacks the athleticism to be anything other than a run-stuffer.

Last edited by pricejj; 04-23-2012 at 03:39 PM..
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Old 04-23-2012, 05:31 PM   #57
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devon still will be the best DT in the draft. dont care what any1 says.
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Old 04-23-2012, 06:02 PM   #58
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Rank Name College Comment
1 Fletcher Cox Mississippi State 3-technique (3T) penetrator, most dynamic guy at position.
2 Michael Brockers LSU Scheme-indifferent 1T, 3T, or 5T. Young, inexperienced, and high potential.
3 Derek Wolfe Cincinnati High-effort and skilled 3T pass rusher in even front.
4 Dontari Poe Memphis Scheme-indifferent NT – size/speed guy with low production at UM.
5 Kendall Reyes UConn Excellent athlete, high effort. 4-3 3T who will be a long-time solid starter.
6 Devon Still Penn State 3T skills, average motor. I can take or leave him.
7 Jerel Worthy Michigan State Very similar to Still in skills and motor.
8 Billy Winn Boise State Less talented than the top seven, but productive 3T.
9 Brandon Thompson Clemson Best fit is as even-front NT. Good talent vs run.
10 Alameda Ta’amu California Huge odd-front NT, less of a fit in a 4-3.


http://www.orangemane.com/BB/newthre...=newthread&f=6

My thoughts exactly, coming from the best Broncos site on the planet. Read it and weep.

Derek Wolfe at #25, is probably the best pick the Broncos could take.
I keep seeing MOCKS where Brockers falls to #25.
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Old 04-23-2012, 06:12 PM   #59
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The DT I was pimping was Devon Still from Penn State, I like his size and wing span.. but it seems the consensus is the guy can't play an entire game.. that he fades out as he tires.

Some draftniks say don't expect much production from him in his first season.
Add the Mile High elements and he would be gassed in the 2nd quarter. I dont live in Colorado but not sure how long it would take to be used to it. Wolfe looks like he would be available at 25.
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Old 04-23-2012, 07:28 PM   #60
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Brockers could drop if the 3-4 teams drafting in the 12-24 range pass on him. I do think he would be better as a 3-4 DE, as I do with Wolfe.

I also have stated many times that I like Reyes over Still and Worthy.

But the reality remains if the Broncos stay at 25, a DT is probably not the best pick.
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Old 04-23-2012, 07:33 PM   #61
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Wait, what?

What is this based off of?

His one season of semi-productive college ball where he did stop the run, but rarely pushed the pocket or penetrated? Keep in mind, he was seldom doubled.

He's also now up to 325 lbs, his playing weight was roughly 305. And his response to the massive weight gain was "whoops, guess I'm 325 now". I don't even know what you get with this guy long term, he might be the next Gilbert Brown. I do know he's *just* a Nose Tackle though, and I know D-linemen that can't pass rush have drastically reduced draft value.

I feel like I don't "hate" Brockers, I find his potential as a plugger intriguing, but this is a major boom-or-bust pick. Even Dontari Poe has three years of solid tape to refer back to. I don't want the first DT we actually decide to take in roughly a decade to be a risky pick.
You need to watch his film, there's a reason he has been considered a top 10 prospect. He was always double teamed if not triple teamed at times. You clearly have watched zero tape on him.
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Old 04-23-2012, 08:58 PM   #62
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Here's a tough one, say DT's do drop and the first one isn't gone til 15. Do you grab another position at 25 and wait or don't allow the window to close on the second and 3rd round possible DT rush and take Brockers/Worthy/Poe..
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Old 04-24-2012, 02:34 AM   #63
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Old 04-24-2012, 06:24 AM   #64
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I just did the research on DT's drafted in the last 7 years near the end of the first round. It is not pretty at all! Of the 13 drafted players at the end, or early second round taken only 3 of the players were able to come in a make a difference for a team. The scary part is it was a short term start and long term effect for all three. None of the other 10 DT's who were drafted "developed" into starters or playmakers for their teams eventually. This includes the last 2 years, where their development is not played out yet. One of those players, Jared Odrick looks like he could break out, but as a 3-4 DE for MIA, not a 4-3 UT that he was projected to be.

Of those DT's who did make an impact, 2 of the 3 were moved to 3-4 DE and NOT playing 4-3 UT or NT!! So, only one player in the last 7 drafts selected at the end of the first or early second became the DT playmaker the team thought they had drafted. That is a scary analysis for sure.

This leads me to believe, that DT is an extremely risky pick where DEN selects in this draft. The only thing that makes me feel much better, is that this particular draft has the most first round grades at DT in a decade. Some of those players who were drafted late in the first, had serious issues like being a talented underachiever (Still, Worthy) and that scares me with those guys more than guys like Reyes who showed solid career progression as he was a LB and DE before growing into productive DT. He is still raw, but he continued to grow as a player as opposed to being a hot and cold performer.

Personally, No one on this site has cried for a Real defensive Line more than me since 2004. However, with this analysis, I would rather find a playmaker at 25 and get a role player like Barry Cofield later in the draft. My problem is that DEN has NEVER drafted a DT worth a damn since Trevor Pryce 14 years ago. I do not like the track record of the organization to find that diamond in the rough.
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Old 04-24-2012, 07:31 AM   #65
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I just did the research on DT's drafted in the last 7 years near the end of the first round. It is not pretty at all! Of the 13 drafted players at the end, or early second round taken only 3 of the players were able to come in a make a difference for a team. The scary part is it was a short term start and long term effect for all three. None of the other 10 DT's who were drafted "developed" into starters or playmakers for their teams eventually. This includes the last 2 years, where their development is not played out yet. One of those players, Jared Odrick looks like he could break out, but as a 3-4 DE for MIA, not a 4-3 UT that he was projected to be.

Of those DT's who did make an impact, 2 of the 3 were moved to 3-4 DE and NOT playing 4-3 UT or NT!! So, only one player in the last 7 drafts selected at the end of the first or early second became the DT playmaker the team thought they had drafted. That is a scary analysis for sure.

This leads me to believe, that DT is an extremely risky pick where DEN selects in this draft. The only thing that makes me feel much better, is that this particular draft has the most first round grades at DT in a decade. Some of those players who were drafted late in the first, had serious issues like being a talented underachiever (Still, Worthy) and that scares me with those guys more than guys like Reyes who showed solid career progression as he was a LB and DE before growing into productive DT. He is still raw, but he continued to grow as a player as opposed to being a hot and cold performer.

Personally, No one on this site has cried for a Real defensive Line more than me since 2004. However, with this analysis, I would rather find a playmaker at 25 and get a role player like Barry Cofield later in the draft. My problem is that DEN has NEVER drafted a DT worth a damn since Trevor Pryce 14 years ago. I do not like the track record of the organization to find that diamond in the rough.
I did similar research and came up with similar results. I think the way they have their players ranked (BPA in a position of need) will determine that they pick a DT at #25, because their higher ranked players will be off the board. I think Elway knows it, and judging by the presser...he isn't too excited about it.
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Old 04-24-2012, 07:52 AM   #66
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I just did the research on DT's drafted in the last 7 years near the end of the first round. It is not pretty at all!...
I appreciate this but I don't know that you let this make your decision for you. Classic case of "past performance does guarantee future results." Looking at this type of analysis overcomplicates things. The last 7 years really don't have anything to do with this year. You evaluate the current crop of players and if a guy you have as worth the #25 pick is there at the position you take him. If the only DT's left when you pick are rated lower, and there are other guys on your board available, you take the other guys. In other words, you stick with your board and you don't reach.
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Old 04-24-2012, 07:57 AM   #67
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I appreciate this but I don't know that you let this make your decision for you. Classic case of "past performance does guarantee future results." Looking at this type of analysis overcomplicates things. The last 7 years really don't have anything to do with this year. You evaluate the current crop of players and if a guy you have as worth the #25 pick is there at the position you take him. If the only DT's left when you pick are rated lower, and there are other guys on your board available, you take the other guys. In other words, you stick with your board and you don't reach.
The last seven years of failures does demonstrate that drafting a DT in the late first round is very risky.
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Old 04-24-2012, 08:08 AM   #68
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The last seven years of failures does demonstrate that drafting a DT in the late first round is very risky.
Agree. But again, you stick with your board. If you only have Cox/Poe/Brockers rated 25 or better and none of them are there when you pick you go a different position. The last 7 years aren't relevant once you have your evals done and your board set. It's all about the player. Where he's picked isn't really relevant. Whether Brockers is picked at 12 or 25 he's the same guy.
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Old 04-24-2012, 08:13 AM   #69
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Agree. But again, you stick with your board. If you only have Cox/Poe/Brockers rated 25 or better and none of them are there when you pick you go a different position. The last 7 years aren't relevant once you have your evals done and your board set. It's all about the player. Where he's picked isn't really relevant. Whether Brockers is picked at 12 or 25 he's the same guy.
What other players (who will be available at #25) do you think they have valued higher than Still/Reyes/Worthy?

I think they have Kirkpatrick higher...maybe Hightower (but I doubt it)...that's it.

Prepare yourself for a crappy DT in round 1.

Last edited by pricejj; 04-24-2012 at 08:45 AM..
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Old 04-24-2012, 08:43 AM   #70
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I appreciate this but I don't know that you let this make your decision for you. Classic case of "past performance does guarantee future results." Looking at this type of analysis overcomplicates things. The last 7 years really don't have anything to do with this year. You evaluate the current crop of players and if a guy you have as worth the #25 pick is there at the position you take him. If the only DT's left when you pick are rated lower, and there are other guys on your board available, you take the other guys. In other words, you stick with your board and you don't reach.
Every year is unique, but trends are there for a reason. It does not overcomplicate things at all, it is simply a factor to consider as one does draft prep. If you are just as likely to get a DT starter in the fourth round as you are in the late first, that has to be considered or you run the risk of overdrafting for need.

The real difference is in the actual grades of the player and the talent level of the player specific to your scheme. This is where solid drafting occurs. However, realizing that using a high pick on a DT rarely produces results while holding your picks and getting a value DT is just as effective can result in better drafting success overall for your team. Missing on a late first round pick happens all the time, and it's usually a reach need pick after the true talent at a position is gone.

The difference this year is there should be talent at DT available into the third round. And, there are a few solid rotational NT's available later. If there is NOT an elite level pass rushing UT available at 25 (Cox being the only one of those in this draft), I hope DEN stays prudent to their board and takes the BPA at a position of need. I just do not want a reach DT pick on upside as those are the guys usually selected here and also the ones who fail the most in the NFL. The type of DT selected is the reason you are wary here, developmental "Upside" DT's who are hot and cold in college just do not seem to develop like teams believe they will. That is why you do that analysis. Not for the pure numbers, but the reasons why those numbers exist.

That makes Still and Worthy guys who I do not Want taken at 25. That is their profile and I would rather draft value later than upside at 25 with a DT. Upside DT's have NOT shown the ability to play UT, push the pocket in pass rush, and penetrate gaps in run defense and blow plays up when they get to the NFL.

It is alot more than numbers.

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Old 04-24-2012, 08:57 AM   #71
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What other players (who will be available at #25) do you think they have valued higher than Still/Reyes/Worthy?
I'm not even going to pretend to know. But it's very possible they have a RB/WR/TE/OL player rated higher than those guys you mentioned.
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