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Old 01-16-2012, 07:36 AM   #1
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Default Tim Tebow isn't a one-year wonder.

Tim Tebow isn't a one-year wonder


With minor offensive improvements, Tebow can lead the Broncos back to the playoffs


By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider




Early in Super Bowl XI, the Oakland Raiders drove down to the Minnesota Vikings' 7-yard line but stalled there and ended up kicking a 24-yard field goal.


Raiders head coach John Madden was none too happy about the end of the drive. As he noted in, "Hey, Wait A Minute, I Wrote a Book!" Madden told his team, "You got to get the ball in the end zone, you got to get six points, not three."


Quarterback Ken Stabler put his arm around Madden and, knowing just how well the offense was playing, told him, "Don't worry, John, there's plenty more where that came from." Stabler was spot on in his assessment, as the Raiders went on to rout the Vikings 32-14.


That sentiment is exactly the type of feeling that Tim Tebow backers should have about his future prospects.



It might seem hard to fathom such a line of thinking after Tebow's Denver Broncos were on the wrong end of a 45-10 AFC divisional playoff game thrashing against the New England Patriots -- partially because he went 9-for-26 for 136 yards -- but the truth is that a game tape and metric review of Denver's 2011 season indicates Tebow has an extraordinary amount of reachable potential.



It all begins by recognizing that the Broncos can continue to use the blueprint that got them to this point in the first place: run the ball, throw deep as often as possible and learn to live with Tebow's mistakes (a potential path for success that was noted right after Tebow took over as the starter).


That offensive design worked to the tune of 322.5 yards per game in the 11 regular-season contests Tebow started. That total is only 24.3 yards per game below the league average and is only 54.1 yards per game short of placing in the top 10.


The big reason for this showing is a Denver rushing attack that averaged more rushing yards per game (164.5) than any other team and ranked sixth in the league in rushing yards per attempt (4.8).


That means the increased yardage will likely have to occur in the passing game, but that should be quite attainable given the issues that held the passing game back this year.


Injuries prevented wide receiver Demaryius Thomas from getting into a game until Week 7. Thomas has an incredible amount of talent (Scouts Inc. gave him a 92 rating in its 2010 draft profile) but rehabbing a multitude of physical ailments (broken foot, sprained ankle, concussion, torn Achilles and fractured finger) has slowed the refinement of his route running skills.


It didn't stop him from posting one of the most memorable receptions in NFL playoff history, but if he gets a full offseason worth of work in, there is no telling how good Thomas could be.


Denver could also benefit from substantial improvements out of its other pass-catchers. Holding on to catchable passes would be a great place to begin. According to ESPN's Stats and Info, the Broncos had a 6.6 percent drop rate on on-target passes, highest in the league.


In addition, it should be noted that Eric Decker and Eddie Royal tallied 6.7 and 3.2 yards per attempt (YPA), respectively, on passes thrown by Tebow this year. Decker's total is below average for a wideout and Royal's number is positively abysmal, so upgrading the talent level here should offer an immediate bottom line improvement.


The odds of getting that upgrade are greatly helped by the depth of wide receiver talent that can be found in this year's NFL draft and free-agency crops. The draft has as many as four potential first-round wide receiver prospects and six or seven pass-catchers with second-round potential.


Free agency is also a more than viable avenue since this year's wide receiving crop could include Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson and Mario Manningham, along with a deep group of solid veteran prospects.


Denver's tight end productivity was strong under Tebow (16-for-21 for 244 yards, 11.6 YPA), but it could also benefit from the development of 2011 draft picks Julius Thomas and Virgil Green (four combined receptions for a total of 29 yards this season).


The aforementioned production numbers also occurred in a campaign that included a lockout-truncated offseason, a new Denver coaching staff and Tebow's taking over as quarterback about one-third of the way through the season.



It took time to get him acclimated as the starter and to get the coaching staff to figure out what would work best with him under center, and yet this offense still was only a medium-sized jump away from being quite productive.


It is also worth noting that Tebow's production was offset by a 2.2 percent interception rate that tied for the ninth lowest in the league.


Tebow's low interception total was not a matter of luck, either, as he posted a superb 1.5 percent bad decision rate (BDR). To put that number into perspective, a 2 percent BDR is considered the mark of excellence for a vertical passer, and Tebow was well below that level. It is a major reason the Denver offense was able to overcome the significant volume of hurdles it faced this year.


The knee jerk reaction is to think of the Broncos' 2011 season as an amazing one-year confluence of events, but don't sell Tebow and company short.
If Denver's front office handles the 2012 offseason well, we might not look back on this season as one for the ages, but instead see it as the beginning of a highly successful NFL career for Tebow.




http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/playo...on-success-nfl
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Old 01-16-2012, 07:53 AM   #2
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Not so big on Joyner's work but this is pretty solidly done.
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Old 01-16-2012, 07:55 AM   #3
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We would won more games if Llyod was not traded.We badly need good Wide Receivers.
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Old 01-16-2012, 08:03 AM   #4
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I think Desean Jackson is just the type of player this offense needs. Add him plus a scat back like the kid from Oregon and we could strech the field in all directions. I'm still high on Julius Thomas freakish skill set
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Old 01-16-2012, 08:04 AM   #5
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I hope he's right (certainly more right than when I used him for fantasy help years ago).
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Old 01-16-2012, 08:12 AM   #6
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We would won more games if Llyod was not traded.We badly need good Wide Receivers.
Here's what I didn't get. Fox was just a couple weeks off of having to line Tim Tebow up as a WR because we were so thin.

We follow that up with trading our best WR (after already trading our #2 before the season began)
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Old 01-16-2012, 08:20 AM   #7
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I thought they had a pretty high number of drops, but damn, the highest percentage in the league?
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Old 01-16-2012, 08:25 AM   #8
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I thought they had a pretty high number of drops, but damn, the highest percentage in the league?
Not just that, but we don't have the kind of hands that can go out and make plays out of bad passes either. Seeing the Ravens WR's making Flacco look better than he is (although that's not saying much) is kinda frustrating.

Anyone who watched that game yesterday should think twice before declaring Tim Tebow a failure.
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Old 01-16-2012, 08:40 AM   #9
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It is not about Demayrius Thomas or Eric Decker or Green og Orange Julius or any of the rookies and free agents - it is about Tebow - he had one offseason as a rookie under Mcdaniels behind Quinn and Orton, he had less than half an offseason behind Quinn and Orton with Fox - this year will be his first offseason as a starter, his first time taking snap after snap with the starters, the first offseason with coaches working to make the offense work for him, not him work for the offense.

Tebow is going to improve his completion rate by about 8% points next season to around 54.5%, he will improve his passing yards per game to about 200 yards and his total TDs up from 18 to about 36. That is what is going to drive this team forward.
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Old 01-16-2012, 08:59 AM   #10
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I thought it was a no-no to post full ESPN Insider articles? Don't want TJ getting a letter.
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:00 AM   #11
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I thought it was a no-no to post full ESPN Insider articles? Don't want TJ getting a letter.
NARC
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:02 AM   #12
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The Denver Broncos have 99 problems but for once QB aint one.


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Old 01-16-2012, 09:02 AM   #13
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We had a team this year that had a lot of rookies playing, also Tebow's becoming the starter, new coaches and none of them got an off season. I think this off season will benefit the Broncos immensely and with some new additions this will be a damn good team.
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:14 AM   #14
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Yeah lets totally gut our team for TEBLOW set us back for another 6yrs.

TEBLOW is a over hyped QB that can only thow a strike to his first option. All his check down throws are in the dirt. He maybe able to learn a thing or two about the X's and O's in offseason but by the time your in pros you CAN'T learn accuracy and touch.
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:16 AM   #15
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I was watching the Niners game and watching as Alex Smith drove the length of the field to salt away the game. That dude was drafted out of Meyer's offense in 2005. It took him, what, seven years to put together a decent year? He was in some ways more polished than Tebow coming out.

I'd venture that Tebow works harder than Smith and at the end of year two probably did more for his franchise than Smith did. I am reminded what an incredible project Tebow is, but his work ethic should shorten the development period to some degree. I don't know how much patience the front office or fan base is going to have, probably not five more years before we see another decent season. However I am curious how much better he'll look with a full offseason.
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:17 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by ChrisToker View Post
Yeah lets totally gut our team for TEBLOW set us back for another 6yrs.

TEBLOW is a over hyped QB that can only thow a strike to his first option. All his check down throws are in the dirt. He maybe able to learn a thing or two about the X's and O's in offseason but by the time your in pros you CAN'T learn accuracy and touch.

It must be nice to be an ignorant slut, yes?

The bolded is LULZ. Did you watch Elway early in his career?


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Old 01-16-2012, 09:17 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by ChrisToker View Post
Yeah lets totally gut our team for TEBLOW set us back for another 6yrs.

TEBLOW is a over hyped QB that can only thow a strike to his first option. All his check down throws are in the dirt. He maybe able to learn a thing or two about the X's and O's in offseason but by the time your in pros you CAN'T learn accuracy and touch.
Finally! Someone with an insightful, objective take!
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:20 AM   #18
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Dude Elway could make all the throws. To compare TEBLOW to Elway is blasphemous.
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:20 AM   #19
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I was watching the Niners game and watching as Alex Smith drove the length of the field to salt away the game. That dude was drafted out of Meyer's offense in 2005. It took him, what, seven years to put together a decent year? He was in some ways more polished than Tebow coming out.

I'd venture that Tebow works harder than Smith and at the end of year two probably did more for his franchise than Smith did. I am reminded what an incredible project Tebow is, but his work ethic should shorten the development period to some degree. I don't know how much patience the front office or fan base is going to have, probably not five more years before we see another decent season. However I am curious how much better he'll look with a full offseason.
I posted this once before, but Tebow already has as many 300 yard games as Alex Smith does.

Cute anecdotes aside, I don't think you can pin all of SF's struggles over the last 5-6 years on Smith. It's not like you can just plug a QB into any team and under any scenario and say "Ok, Develop according to our schedule now"
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:25 AM   #20
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Dude Elway could make all the throws. To compare TEBLOW to Elway is blasphemous.

You did not say "make all the throws". You said QB's cannot learn accuracy and touch. So clearly you have no idea what you are mumbling about.

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Old 01-16-2012, 09:26 AM   #21
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I posted this once before, but Tebow already has as many 300 yard games as Alex Smith does.

Cute anecdotes aside, I don't think you can pin all of SF's struggles over the last 5-6 years on Smith. It's not like you can just plug a QB into any team and under any scenario and say "Ok, Develop according to our schedule now"
I wasn't blaming Smith for the team sucking. I was blaming Smith for Smith sucking. I did see a decent bump in performance from him with Norv, but who's to say that is or is not coaching? I suppose even this season could be anomalous for Smith. I'm just pointing out patience with a player like Tebow could yield some decent results. Not saying we shouldn't cover our bases. We need to draft a QB. However I think Tebow deserves more time.
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:33 AM   #22
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I wasn't blaming Smith for the team sucking. I was blaming Smith for Smith sucking. I did see a decent bump in performance from him with Norv, but who's to say that is or is not coaching? I suppose even this season could be anomalous for Smith. I'm just pointing out patience with a player like Tebow could yield some decent results. Not saying we shouldn't cover our bases. We need to draft a QB. However I think Tebow deserves more time.

It's highly unusual for the 1st overall pick to take 7 years to develop or even given that much time. Though Mike Singletary rival Josh for incompetence running a football team.

"Can't win with him" . Yeah you can and just did
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:35 AM   #23
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You did not say "make all the throws". You said QB's cannot learn accuracy and touch. So clearly you have no idea what you are mumbling about.

You are obviously delusional about TEBLOW! Thats ok to each their own. But what type of complete dumba$$ does not relate touch and accuracy to can make all the throws? TEBLOW has none of the required gifts to be a QB. He is a great cheerleader but thats about it.
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:38 AM   #24
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I wasn't blaming Smith for the team sucking. I was blaming Smith for Smith sucking. I did see a decent bump in performance from him with Norv, but who's to say that is or is not coaching? I suppose even this season could be anomalous for Smith. I'm just pointing out patience with a player like Tebow could yield some decent results. Not saying we shouldn't cover our bases. We need to draft a QB. However I think Tebow deserves more time.
I wasn't sure how to read what you were saying. Maybe I read in some pessimism about whether people would be as patient with Tebow.

I'm just saying it doesn't necessarily have to be that way. Off the top of my head I can't think of any decent receiving talent that Smith had to work with.

Also Smith spent some long stretches benched or injured on top of that. Overall I'd say Smith serves as an example of how not to develop your QB. Hopefully we take lessons from that.
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:39 AM   #25
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Quote:
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You are obviously delusional about TEBLOW! Thats ok to each their own. But what type of complete dumba$$ does not relate touch and accuracy to can make all the throws? TEBLOW has none of the required gifts to be a QB. He is a great cheerleader but thats about it.
Every time you use "TEBLOW" it is incredibly humorous and creative. Do you do bar mitzvahs?
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