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Old 01-12-2012, 09:45 AM   #1
TonyR
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Default Grantland/Barnwell breakdown of Broncos @ Pats

They were at least willing to note something that very few media outlets have recognized regarding the Broncos regular season game against the Pats:

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To try to break down what to watch for in Brady-Tebow II, we naturally went back to Week 15 and took a long look at Brady-Tebow I. The Patriots traveled to Denver and won that day, 41-23, but the game itself was a lot closer than the final scoreline. A few key mistakes from the Broncos and lucky bounces for the Patriots were enough to swing an early Denver lead into a three-score victory, but the Broncos were competitive for the vast majority of the game and actually outplayed the Patriots for most of the first half.
Read the whole thing here: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...layoff-matchup

Good read, I highly recommend.

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Old 01-12-2012, 09:51 AM   #2
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They were at least willing to note something that very few media outlets have recognized regarding the Broncos regular season game against the Pats:



Read the whole thing here: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...layoff-matchup
Exactly. Yet all the arrogance on local radio out here is to the effect of, "We kicked their asses in THEIR place....how can they expect to win here??"
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Old 01-12-2012, 09:52 AM   #3
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Kind of related: The new Broncos app just pointed put that they will be doing a season review sound FX of Brady and Tebow on NFL Network tonight at 7 MST. The game from the OP will be replayed just after that show, at 7:30 MST. Their will also be a show called "Tim Tebow: Season in Review" on at 6 MST Friday.

If we don't turn it over, and McGahee stays healthy, we have a very good chance in this game.

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Old 01-12-2012, 09:54 AM   #4
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Barnwell brings up some really solid points in that post
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Old 01-12-2012, 09:58 AM   #5
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You know that someone has to have been confused if Chad Ochocinco ends up scoring a touchdown
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Old 01-12-2012, 09:59 AM   #6
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Anybody that watched the first game understands it was closer than the score ended up being.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:00 AM   #7
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Sigh...turnovers are a part of the game and NE is what +14 or something. Thats how they play. Call it luck or whatever.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:01 AM   #8
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Exactly. Yet all the arrogance on local radio out here is to the effect of, "We kicked their asses in THEIR place....how can they expect to win here??"
Oh man how I hope the Pats are lapping that stuff on a daily basis. If that's their thinking going in, we've got them exactly where we want them to be.

I suspect Coach Belicheat and the Pats are smarter than that though. They remember how it really went down in Denver.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:02 AM   #9
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Sigh...turnovers are a part of the game and NE is what +14 or something. Thats how they play. Call it luck or whatever.
Who called it luck or whatever?
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:07 AM   #10
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Kind of related: The new Broncos app just pointed put that they will be doing a season review sound FX of Brady and Tebow on NFL Network tonight at 7 MST. The game from the OP will be replayed just after that show, at 7:30 MST. Their will also be a show called "Tim Tebow: Season in Review" on at 6 MST Friday.

If we don't turn it over, and McGahee stays healthy, we have a very good chance in this game.
There were a lot of things going on.

Probably the biggest issue Denver had was losing Miller's ability to get after the QB at the same time they had two rookies at safety. If you're going to have issues on the back end of your defense, you can maybe have a chance if you get pressure on the QB. If you suddenly lose a huge part of your pass rush, then you really need to have it together in your secondary. When these kind of issues arise and you've had little time to adjust to them (all of this happened shortly before the NE game) and then you face someone like Brady, it's like a perfect storm of misfortune for our defense.

Things seemed to have been stabilized somewhat. Allen was eventually able to adjust to this misfortune. It seems to have started in the KC game, where Orton barely completed 50% of his passes. And these arent attempts where he's throwing the ball 15+ yards down field like Tebow. And then last week, Ben's completion % was actually barely 50% too.

So, hopefully, the issues Denver had defensively in the first game will help along with turning over the ball less.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:10 AM   #11
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Who called it luck or whatever?
Me, I think TOs are mostly luck.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:13 AM   #12
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The Patriots are so difficult because they force the opposition into impossible choices like that on virtually every play. The Broncos made it a clear priority to try to eliminate Gronkowski from the game, and they were able to limit him to four catches on five targets for a total of 38 yards, but that meant that Aaron Hernandez got to run free versus Harris and other overmatched members of the Denver secondary. He finished with a team-high nine catches, 11 targets, and 129 yards. Denver will have to make a difficult choice this weekend: Do they let Hernandez do that to them again? Or do they try to eliminate him from the game and do their best with Gronkowski instead?
With our young secondary this is precisely why this is such a terrible matchup for us. I'd be considerably more confident against either Baltimore or Houston.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:15 AM   #13
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He was one of the few to pick Denver to beat Pittsburgh. Not sure how accurate his prognosticating has been overall, but I usually find him insightful and accurate when he writes about the NFL. The injury situation certainly doesn't favor us this week. At least two of the young guys in the secondary will have to play the best games of their brief careers to give us a real shot.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:18 AM   #14
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When NE puts the TEs in there they can run as the TEs, well Gronkwoski anyway are huge. But Brady can audible and just as easily pass from that formation. Tough to defend it consistently. Its easier on the road where Brady cannot audible as freely due to crowd noise but at home NE is tough to beat but not impossible obviously.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:18 AM   #15
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Hard to argue with anything in that article.

Denver absolutely, positively has to get pressure on Brady or the secondary will get eaten alive. As he notes, the pass rush did show some signs of life last week. It will have to be at least as good this week for the Broncos to have any shot.

I'm a little more optimistic about Denver's special teams. Eddie Royal has always been our best return man when he's healthy.

As he notes, Kuper was a big loss and the running game could suffer. On the other hand, McGahee might be healthier this time around, and he's much more dangerous ball carrier than Ball or Johnson.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:19 AM   #16
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I don't think it's ever a winning formula to focus on trying to take away one of Brady's weapons. He has too many, and he's easily good enough to use any of his other guys on the field if you focus on taking one away.

I think you have to focus on the jugular... going for Brady himself. If you can't pressure him, he's going to hang 30-40 on you. That's just the way it is.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:19 AM   #17
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Hard to argue with anything in that article.

Denver absolutely, positively has to get pressure on Brady or the secondary will get eaten alive. As he notes, the pass rush did show some signs of life last week. It will have to be at least as good this week for the Broncos to have any shot.

I'm a little more optimistic about Denver's special teams. Eddie Royal has always been our best return man when he's healthy.

As he notes, Kuper was a big loss and the running game could suffer. On the other hand, McGahee might be healthier this time around, and he's much more dangerous ball carrier than Ball or Johnson.
When he does not fumble
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:19 AM   #18
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Me, I think TOs are mostly luck.
I agree fumbles are mostly random occurances.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:19 AM   #19
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He was one of the few to pick Denver to beat Pittsburgh. Not sure how accurate his prognosticating has been overall, but I usually find him insightful and accurate when he writes about the NFL.
Yup. This is a really solid write up and it's hard to disagree with any of it.

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A lot of the factors that led us to lean toward a possible upset last week for Denver are gone. This week, they're the team with more injuries. They're the ones on the road in a hostile environment. They're at the special teams disadvantage... They should be able to score some, but it's going to be very difficult for them to really stop the Patriots.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:22 AM   #20
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NE plays the bend but don't break D, hoping that the QB or the RB makes a mistake....law of averages? IDK?
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:26 AM   #21
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When he does not fumble
McGahee has lost twice as many fumbles as Ball this year, but he has two and a half times more carries.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:27 AM   #22
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I agree fumbles are mostly random occurances.
FFs and interceptions are not luck. The way a fumble bounces can be luck. A pumt returner making a huge mistake is kind of lucky, or it is that a bad player is fielding the punt.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:27 AM   #23
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Hard to argue with anything in that article.

Denver absolutely, positively has to get pressure on Brady or the secondary will get eaten alive. As he notes, the pass rush did show some signs of life last week. It will have to be at least as good this week for the Broncos to have any shot.

I'm a little more optimistic about Denver's special teams. Eddie Royal has always been our best return man when he's healthy.

As he notes, Kuper was a big loss and the running game could suffer. On the other hand, McGahee might be healthier this time around, and he's much more dangerous ball carrier than Ball or Johnson.
I dont think losing Kuper is going to be a huge loss here, because Broncos get by on scheme (creating a numbers mismatch with the option) and as long as the line does an adequate job, we'll be ok. I'm more concerned about Chung and Spikes coming back and them being able to contain it better than they did the first time.

I assume the Pats will employ a similar D as they did the first game and let us chew up some yards incrementally and wait for us to make a mistake (we're young, we have a young QB...i think this is a decent strategy. Also, I'm not a huge Deck fan yet, but not having him here will hurt.) And you can do this when you have an offense who scores every single drive.

On defense, I have no clue what the Broncos are even thinking, but we can safely assume they'll have a diff strategy. Unfortunately for us, we have great edge rushers and Brady usually avoids these guys by staying shallow in the pocket and stepping up. We need to bring pressure up the gut and I'd try flooding the A-gaps and seeing what happens. If he burns us doing that, well, then fine, we know he's gonna burn the rush three and drop back into zone strategy too.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:28 AM   #24
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It's a good write up but he's wrong about special teams. Prater is still a weapon away from Denver. He hit game winners against both Miami and San Diego on the road (at sea level) of 50+ yards.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:29 AM   #25
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FFs and interceptions are not luck. The way a fumble bounces can be luck. A pumt returner making a huge mistake is kind of lucky, or it is that a bad player is fielding the punt.
I guess? NE is the worst D in the NFL and close to the worst D of all time. I am guessing their +/- is mostly luck? No?
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