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Old 01-10-2012, 09:35 AM   #1
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Default Chess match

This game will likely come down to a chess match. Now, I fully realize that John Fox is probably not going to win a chess match against Bill Belicheat. BUT HE MUST TRY.

Running on 1st down 95% of the time will not win this time, I just won't believe it. Someone said in another thread, on first play, run a 3 step drop slant pass, that will likely put Denver ahead in the chess match and hopefully, just maybe... Belicheat will be scrambling the rest of the game to comes up with some of his own counter moves.
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Old 01-10-2012, 09:39 AM   #2
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They need to do exactly what they were doing against them last time, minus the turnovers. The Pats defense isn't very good. If we can run, we need to run a LOT. It is how you control the clock. It is how you keep Brady off the field.
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Old 01-10-2012, 09:40 AM   #3
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We have to get to Brady at all costs. 3 man rush wont work this week.
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Old 01-10-2012, 09:40 AM   #4
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I think this game will be the opposite of the Steelers game. Where we beat the Steelers with finesse and strategy, this game will be about grit and physicality. If we play physical with them, we can intimidate this team.

We can win this game. I am quite confident we not only show up but surprise people again.
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Old 01-10-2012, 09:41 AM   #5
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hopefully the chess match is for the Broncos defense...they weren't very good back on December 18th.
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Old 01-10-2012, 09:44 AM   #6
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We have to get to Brady at all costs. 3 man rush wont work this week.
Good point about getting to Brady. The other chess match between Dennis Allen and the Brady offense is just as much important as the McCoy offense versus the Patriot defense.

I agree about getting to Brady at all costs. A 3 man rush would be good if they can get to Brady fast with it. With Doom, if he is not held, will beat his man consistently. Still, if they rush only 3 or 4, and not get to Brady, they will get picked apart. I fully expect some disguised blitzes during a lot of the game.
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Old 01-10-2012, 09:46 AM   #7
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Just beat the man in front of you , the rest will take care of its self
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Old 01-10-2012, 09:50 AM   #8
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Simply put, turnovers and three and outs will kill this team's chances. You beat Brady and Co. by keeping them off of the field and substaining 5, 6, 7, minute drives, and winning the field position battle. Certainly getting pressure on Brady is critical, but he's not going to stopped, but you if you can limit NE's scoring to field goals whenever possible there's a chance.
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Old 01-10-2012, 09:52 AM   #9
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Disagree with the OP. Running is exactly what can win this game. Old school football. The Pats best weapon is Tom Brady. Keep him on the bench. TOP could win us this game. The other advantage we have is Colquitt and our STs. We can win the field position battle. Whenever Brady gets on the field, he should be looking at a minimum of 80 yards. No turnovers and get a turnover on defense (Champ owes us one). It is doable. Very doable.
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Old 01-10-2012, 09:52 AM   #10
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Decent analogy when you consider to win we need to go no huddle often and turn it into speed chess, where luck becomes one of the main elements along with skill.
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Old 01-10-2012, 09:56 AM   #11
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I agree the Broncos must throw on 1st down just as they did against the Steelers but they have to be able to run the ball and control the clock too. I don't see them winning a shoot out; they must keep Brady off the field as long as possible so the D will be as fresh as possible.

If they can keep it to a smash mouth type game I think they have a much better chance of winning it.

The D failed the last time by not getting any pressure on Brady and the deep zone they used cost them also. Shut down the run then put constant pressure on Brady while playing tight man coverage.

Control the ball on O with a good running game, without TO's, mix it up by throwing on 1st down, pick some spots to go deep when you can and this one is a totally winnable game for the Broncos.

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Old 01-10-2012, 09:59 AM   #12
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I agree that physicality is the key to this game. I'm not sure what kind of defense the Pats will come out in, but I'll assume it won't be cover zero (Belichick would never do this). They had, essentially, zero success stopping the read option last time, I'd like to see them try to stop it again. If they can't, and have to commit more defenders to the run, pass over it.
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Old 01-10-2012, 10:02 AM   #13
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I agree that physicality is the key to this game. I'm not sure what kind of defense the Pats will come out in, but I'll assume it won't be cover zero (Belichick would never do this). They had, essentially, zero success stopping the read option last time, I'd like to see them try to stop it again. If they can't, and have to commit more defenders to the run, pass over it.
in the 2nd quarter, the Pats switched to a 3 man front and for some reason our 5 OL couldn't pass protect.
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Old 01-10-2012, 10:03 AM   #14
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Disagree with the OP. Running is exactly what can win this game. Old school football. The Pats best weapon is Tom Brady. Keep him on the bench. TOP could win us this game. The other advantage we have is Colquitt and our STs. We can win the field position battle. Whenever Brady gets on the field, he should be looking at a minimum of 80 yards. No turnovers and get a turnover on defense (Champ owes us one). It is doable. Very doable.
I'd side with this so long as we realize that to help the running game we still need to throw it at least 30% of the time on 1st down.

It's the flip side of the Tebow/DT miracle OT play. That worked because the Stealers 'knew' we always ran it on first down. That is also why we were completely unable to run the ball on first down all game.

We need the Pats to be guessing on 1st down all game. Not just on the last play, because if we don't, the last play isn't likely to matter.
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Old 01-10-2012, 10:06 AM   #15
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They need to do exactly what they were doing against them last time, minus the turnovers. The Pats defense isn't very good. If we can run, we need to run a LOT. It is how you control the clock. It is how you keep Brady off the field.
I agree... the best way to keep Brady off the field is to eat up the clock by running the ball.

Maybe what you do is pass every now and again on 1st or 2nd down to shake things up.

But you figure if the Pats go in that hurry up offence and score, the Broncos can't play that way.. score for a score.

Also convert 3rd downs, punting is not good.. the Pats will wear our Denvers Defense with that hurry up.
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Old 01-10-2012, 10:08 AM   #16
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I imagine New England is going to drop more people into coverage than one would think. They will try to force Tebow to throw into tight windows in the middle of the field. They're not going to be try to completely shut down Denver's run game, but rather incorporate a bend don't break type mentality. Try to get into a situation where Denver is trading field goals for touchdowns.
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Old 01-10-2012, 10:12 AM   #17
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in the 2nd quarter, the Pats switched to a 3 man front and for some reason our 5 OL couldn't pass protect.
We still ran on them just fine. Fumbling became the issue here and they forced one of them on a speed option (which we dont use much anyway, and never with much success).
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Old 01-10-2012, 10:20 AM   #18
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We still ran on them just fine. Fumbling became the issue here and they forced one of them on a speed option (which we dont use much anyway, and never with much success).
I think we'll find it a lot easier to run on the Pats then we did on the Steelers. We've got to pass to keep them honest, and off the line, but if we can keep moving the sticks with the ground game, I hope we just stay with it and burn the clock.
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Old 01-10-2012, 10:21 AM   #19
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Denver needs to flip the script and throw screens and short passes. New England's secondary is awful but if you allow them to focus on what you did against Pittsburgh, you make life easier for them. New England will be very wary about giving help over the top. OK, fine. So make NEs DBs defend all parts of the field. Also, you can start getting the OLBs to think about helping in the flats and over the middle.

They're going to be going into the game mindful of the vertical passing game, so if you stretch them out horizontally, you can then hammer them with vertical throws and runs.

Notice how many times the read option works in the 2nd half of games. If they try that in the 1st series against Harrison, James Harrison is probably less confused but as the game progresses and his head is filled with other things, he starts thinking of defending other plays and that's when the trap is set. We've seen the read option work in the 2nd half numerous times even though the other team focused on this in preparation.

I see this as being similar to how Denver would always keep the bootleg open by running inside the DEs. NE's probably going to run what is more like a 5-2 in order to set the edge against the option. We need to run inside those DEs to make them start thinking of defending straigh run plays between their DTs and DEs.
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Old 01-10-2012, 10:53 AM   #20
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I think that Bellicheck is going to try to flip things against us by trying not just to contain, but actually rushing against Tebow out of 4-5 man line sets. They got to Tebow pretty well in the 2nd half last time when we got behind and started throwing more. I think they will run blitz early. So the key will be to turn that against them by passing when they don't expect it, which for us is probably 2nd downs with occasional first downs, with Tebow under center. Screens and quick outs must be incorporated and Tebow and the line , receivers is going to have to recognise these and be ready for them, and be ready to check down the play.

On defense we must pressure Brady. Always 4 rush men, but LB pressure also , switching up who goes and who drops or just plays the run. Never rush 3 in passing situations. Haggan will be needed in the LBs so I think he should start over Mays. To help in the secondary ( especially if Dawkins is out again) we use the six package in the secondary like we did against Pittsburgh. We won't need to play so deep so maybe we can contain the two TEs this time and make it tougher on them than before. Goodman and Champ will have to come up big playing man, and the safeties and nickle/dime CBs take the TEs. We absolutely must stop their run game better than before to make this work. They will try to hurt us with screens and reverses gimmicks if this works so play awareness will be important.
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Old 01-10-2012, 11:00 AM   #21
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I agree that physicality is the key to this game. I'm not sure what kind of defense the Pats will come out in, but I'll assume it won't be cover zero (Belichick would never do this). They had, essentially, zero success stopping the read option last time, I'd like to see them try to stop it again. If they can't, and have to commit more defenders to the run, pass over it.
We'll play a 3-4 the whole game this time, zone coverage and not allow Tebow to roll left and throw deep, we'll make him drive the entire field in 5-10 yard chunks consistantly and hope he makes a mistake or someone else does.
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Old 01-10-2012, 11:04 AM   #22
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I agree the Broncos must throw on 1st down just as they did against the Steelers but they have to be able to run the ball and control the clock too. I don't see them winning a shoot out; they must keep Brady off the field as long as possible so the D will be as fresh as possible.

If they can keep it to a smash mouth type game I think they have a much better chance of winning it.

The D failed the last time by not getting any pressure on Brady and the deep zone they used cost them also. Shut down the run then put constant pressure on Brady while playing tight man coverage.

Control the ball on O with a good running game, without TO's, mix it up by throwing on 1st down, pick some spots to go deep when you can and this one is a totally winnable game for the Broncos.
What? They ran on first down ONCE until that overtime one play. In over 20 first downs.... only once.
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Old 01-10-2012, 11:06 AM   #23
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We'll play a 3-4 the whole game this time, zone coverage and not allow Tebow to roll left and throw deep, we'll make him drive the entire field in 5-10 yard chunks consistantly and hope he makes a mistake or someone else does.
I bet NE will disguise its coverages a lot but having two safeties back and making Tim complete multiple short and accurate passes will be their strategy. Agreed. This does not mean that Tim still won't take his shots. Interestingly, I doubt Denver wants a track meet against NE's seriously potent offense. The best bet is ball control, which requires running and short accurate passes and this will be on the road.

I think the score will be 31-24 NE but could be the reverse too. Who knows?
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Old 01-10-2012, 11:07 AM   #24
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I agree about running the ball (and time off the clock) to keep Brady off the field.

That only will work if the running game is successful. A lot of 2nd and 9's means bad news for Denver.
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Old 01-10-2012, 11:10 AM   #25
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I agree about running the ball (and time off the clock) to keep Brady off the field.

That only will work if the running game is successful. A lot of 2nd and 9's means bad news for Denver.
Also falling behind big early would suck. Those TEs are deadly.
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