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Old 11-19-2011, 04:08 PM   #1
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Default QB accuracy versus Drops: A discussion of the NYJ's game.

Let's talk about QB throws in the NFL versus drops here first so we can get a working dialog going. QB throws need several things to be accurate in the NFL.

1. On time. Receiver is able to expect the pass once he gets seperation and before he loses it.
2. In stride. Receiver does not have to adjust his body outside of a normal position to make a catch.
3. In the right window. The Window is the area the ball needs to be thrown to expect a catch. Windows in the NFL are usually much smaller than college, and much more important to hit to make completions in the NFL.

If, and only if, those first three things occur and the Receiver has no other player interfering with a catch is a ball that the Receiver does not catch labeled as a drop by NFL coaches.

Otherwise, it can be labled as Catchable, uncatchable, or thrown away. It is quite obvious reading the latest threads many fans of this board do not realize the difference. However, they will post unreliable and non-valid claims to support their bias at any time.

Here is a coaching breakdown of all 22 attempted passes by Tebow in the NYJ's game:

1st. Quarter throws:
1-10-DEN 20 (15:00) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass deep left to D.Thomas ran ob at DEN 48 for 28 yards. This is a 4x1 WR concept isolating Thomas on the weak side versus Cromartie. They threw this 5 times in the game to Thomas, but the first one was the best execution by far. The Jets were not ready for it, and the backshoulder fade throw was well thrown and caught.

2-6-NYJ 37 (12:00) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short middle to L.Ball to NYJ 30 for 7 yards (E.Smith). Option shotgun, shovel pass. Tebow makes the read and delivers the ball with all three accuracy elements. Great playcall and great execution.

3-9-NYJ 29 (10:37) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to J.Johnson to NYJ 21 for 8 yards (C.Pace). Spread motion screen pass with Johnson leveraging the zone defense. Second consecutive completion at or behind the LOS.

2-6-NYJ 19 (6:05) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to E.Decker. First pass outside the accuracy parameters. Tebow has good intial protection, but does not have open target initially. He scrambles left, but delivers the ball late, out of stride, and barely in the window. Very hard catchable ball. This is NOT a drop. It is a catchable ball.

2cd. Quarter throws:
3-11-NYJ 40 (10:29) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to E.Royal to NYJ 38 for 2 yards (J.Leonhard). This is another Behind the LOS screen pass into man coverage. Very safe, poorly executed play. Accuracy is not an issue.

3-10-NYJ 48 (6:42) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to D.Fells. This is a TE deep in route that Tebow misses completely. Fells has seperation and the pass is on time, but uncatchable and outside the window.

2-6-DEN 42 (2:00) (Shotgun) T.Tebow sacked ob at DEN 42 for 0 yards (C.Pace). This was a good play by Tebow. No one open and early pressure. He pulls the ball down and tries to make a play. In the end, this was the correct decision and he almost made something out of nothing.

3-6-DEN 42 (1:52) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short left to E.Royal to DEN 47 for 5 yards (K.Wilson). This was a bad route and possibly a bad zone option read by Royal. Tebow makes a solid throw, but Royal misses the First down with a short route.

3rd. Quarter throws:
2-9-DEN 13 (10:08) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short left to L.Ball to DEN 32 for 19 yards (K.Wilson). This is the fourth LOS pass and Ball makes a great play after catching the ball. Tebow hits all three accuracy marks here, and screen passes can be hard to be accurate.

1-10-DEN 43 (8:42) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to E.Decker. This is another scramble play and Decker does an excellent job of coming back to the ball. However, this is Tebow's most dangerous throw of the night. He throws the ball way inside the window and the CB has a pick if Decker does not get his fingertips on it.

3-7-DEN 46 (7:57) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete deep middle to E.Decker. This was a Corner post route off a CB blitz with both safeties covering Decker. There is Great protection and Tebow misses with an uncatchable throw.

2-10-NYJ 49 (5:47) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to E.Decker. Tebow gets instant pressure and should have been sacked, but he scrambles left again and gets a pass off to Decker. The pass is Late and misses the Window hard and inside. The pass was catchable though, even though it is one of the hardest catches WR's have to make since they have to put their hands one up and one down to reach behind them. The pass was also a bullet and that made it increase in difficulty. Way too many O'maners want to chalk this up as a drop. It misses in more than one way to be a drop however. It was a hard to catch ball that Decker did not make in reality.

3-10-NYJ 49 (5:39) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to D.Thomas. The only ball thrown to Thomas outside the 4x1 Spread all night. Tebow has great protection, is able to come off his first read, and then plant to make the throw in the open window. The throw is on time, out of stride, and misses the Window in an almost uncatchable ball. However, Thomas huge frame allows him to almost get his whole hands on the ball. Instead, he only gets his fingertips on the ball. This was a big missed throw. This was the second largest window Tebow had to complete a pass all game, and he made a poor throw here.

2-11-NYJ 43 (3:37) T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to E.Royal. Royal gets seperation on Revis, who has inside help from Smith. The only place Tebow can put the ball is low and outside. He does just that, but he misses the window again to the outside just like his previous pass to Thomas. Both of these are harder to catch than they should have been if they were thrown accurately. Both WR's only get fingertips on the ball, NOT hands. Neither are anywhere close to drops.

3-11-NYJ 43 (3:29) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete deep right to L.Ball. Tebow Pressured almost immediately and basically throws the ball away. He was rolling to his right and had two guys near Ball. Right decision IMHO.

3-7-DEN 21 (:03) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to E.Decker [D.Harris]. Tebow under heavy Pressure throws ball away. Smart play, no Turnover.

4th Quarter throws:

1-10-DEN 5 (5:54) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to E.Royal pushed ob at DEN 13 for 8 yards (D.Revis). The Fifth LOS throw, out of the pistol to a Covered Royal. Royal makes a great play on Leonard to get the eight yards. This was a huge play. If Tebow misses this throw's accuracy, Royal might get a safety and game over.

1-10-DEN 28 (4:43) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short left to D.Thomas pushed ob at DEN 37 for 9 yards (A.Cromartie). The spread 4x1 concept with Thomas isolated on Cromartie again. This time they run the comeback perfectly. Ball is accurate in all three measures.

2-1-DEN 37 (4:36) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete deep left to D.Thomas. Spread 4x1 again. This time Tebow and Thomas miscommunicate. No throw evaluation on this.

1-10-NYJ 44 (3:02) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to D.Thomas. Spread 4x1 with the Comeback again. This was a blown pass. Thomas was open again, ball was thrown on time and in the dirt though. Uncatchable.

2-10-NYJ 44 (2:57) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass deep left to D.Rosario to NYJ 26 for 18 yards (E.Smith). Jets go Man to man for the first time in awhile and try to pressure Tebow. Rosario runs a great route, gets a huge window for Tebow to throw into. Tebow gets it out on time, out of stride, but in the window. This was his best NFL throw of the night. He was under pressure and stuck in the pocket and got the pass to the right receiver at the right time.
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Old 11-19-2011, 04:16 PM   #2
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Mediator pwnage. Great job.
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Old 11-19-2011, 04:22 PM   #3
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Repped for quality read... ty.
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Old 11-19-2011, 04:32 PM   #4
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What is the end result of how each player is graded? If the ball is catchable but is not caught is the QB downgraded, WR downgraded, neither or both?
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Old 11-19-2011, 04:36 PM   #5
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The analysis for this is where was Tebow accurate and where did the WR's make drops.

Tebow's Accuracy notes:

-Tebow is Very accurate in the short passing game, including the screen game.
-Tebow was inconsistent throwing the deep ball and the Deep outs and comebacks versus the Jets.
-He struggled a lot more on the run with his accuracy that night than he usually does.
-He was missing both inside the windows and high going to his left, but low and outside to his right all night long.

For the WR's:
-Decker had several catchable balls that he missed. I really can not say any of them were drops, but he sure could have come up with one of them.
-Thomas was getting open when we threw the ball and he caught every catchable ball that came his way
-Ball had a Great night in the short passing game
-Royal caught every catchable ball and almost grabbed a ball thrown outside the window as well. However, he made a poor route not be a first down catch.


What I really saw was this:

Tebow had 9 completions in 20 throws. Of the 11 incompletions:

1. 2 were throw aways
2. 1 was a miscommunication
3. 2 were catchable balls
4. 6 were uncatchable throws

His inaccuracy was mostly the whole third Quarter when he missed on four outside the numbers throws. Overall, it was not a horribly inaccurate performance. However, it was also not a very accurate performance either. This is probably why its a good thing to just run the ball and soften the defense up on the passes. He only had one questionable throw in 22 dropbacks and that is a great %.
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Old 11-19-2011, 04:38 PM   #6
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Old 11-19-2011, 04:39 PM   #7
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Great post. Thanks the breakdown and info Med.

Med, on the last throw, could you tell if Tebow's arm got hit while he was throwing?
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Old 11-19-2011, 04:46 PM   #8
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Quote:
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What is the end result of how each player is graded? If the ball is catchable but is not caught is the QB downgraded, WR downgraded, neither or both?
Every part of the play is graded. The QB is responsible for all three elements. If he hits all three its a plus. If he hits 2 its a push. If he only hits 1 its a minus. Throw Away's and miscommunications are not graded as throws but decisions.

For the WR, The rule is if the ball hits you in the hands, you need to catch it. So, for those catchable balls it all depends if you can get both hands, not both fingertips, around the ball. If you do, but do not catch the ball its a minus. However, the degree of the catch also comes into play here. 4 things go into the catch. Extension, catching, tucking, and turning. If the receiver has to extend so far to make the catch he can not tuck the ball, then it can be a push. This is what happened on the first catchable throw to Decker on the sidelines. He was never able to secure the ball to catch it. the second ball that was catchable was the hardest catch a WR has got to make. He would have gotten a minus for it, but not a drop.
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Old 11-19-2011, 05:02 PM   #9
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Please analyze the kc game.

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Old 11-19-2011, 05:08 PM   #10
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In short Tebow needs to be better, and so do the WR. A few more nice grabs, a few more accurate passes, with this run game and defense we can win some games.
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Old 11-19-2011, 05:08 PM   #11
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3-10-NYJ 49 (5:39) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to D.Thomas. The only ball thrown to Thomas outside the 4x1 Spread all night. Tebow has great protection, is able to come off his first read, and then plant to make the throw in the open window. The throw is on time, out of stride, and misses the Window in an almost uncatchable ball. However, Thomas huge frame allows him to almost get his whole hands on the ball. Instead, he only gets his fingertips on the ball. This was a big missed throw. This was the second largest window Tebow had to complete a pass all game, and he made a poor throw here.
This one frustrated me with D.T. the most. There was a large amount of real estate in front of him, and the defender was boxed behind him. The defender can begin to dig and break on the ball. This is a ball that, to me, is dangerous if you put it right where D.T. is standing. I think Tebow put it in the green space in front of Thomas, and Thomas had inactive feet on the play. He needs to box out, get his feet under him, and work his way back to the quarterback.

It may have been a little too much in front of him, but I'm not sure about that. I think Brandon Lloyd works back to the ball on that and catches it for a key first down.
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Old 11-19-2011, 05:15 PM   #12
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This one frustrated me with D.T. the most. There was a large amount of real estate in front of him, and the defender was boxed behind him. The defender can begin to dig and break on the ball. This is a ball that, to me, is dangerous if you put it right where D.T. is standing. I think Tebow put it in the green space in front of Thomas, and Thomas had inactive feet on the play. He needs to box out, get his feet under him, and work his way back to the quarterback.

It may have been a little too much in front of him, but I'm not sure about that. I think Brandon Lloyd works back to the ball on that and catches it for a key first down.
It depends on the route. It looked like a Comeback and Tebow threw an out. The more I Watch that now, it looks like the ball was later, not late, and way too low for a 6'3 guy on that pattern.
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Old 11-19-2011, 05:21 PM   #13
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Fantastic read.
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Old 11-19-2011, 05:28 PM   #14
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Thanks bro
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Old 11-19-2011, 05:49 PM   #15
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Every part of the play is graded. The QB is responsible for all three elements. If he hits all three its a plus. If he hits 2 its a push. If he only hits 1 its a minus. Throw Away's and miscommunications are not graded as throws but decisions.

For the WR, The rule is if the ball hits you in the hands, you need to catch it. So, for those catchable balls it all depends if you can get both hands, not both fingertips, around the ball. If you do, but do not catch the ball its a minus. However, the degree of the catch also comes into play here. 4 things go into the catch. Extension, catching, tucking, and turning. If the receiver has to extend so far to make the catch he can not tuck the ball, then it can be a push. This is what happened on the first catchable throw to Decker on the sidelines. He was never able to secure the ball to catch it. the second ball that was catchable was the hardest catch a WR has got to make. He would have gotten a minus for it, but not a drop.
Thanks for the info. I assume a catchable ball in the NFL must be caught. So Decker did not have a very good night. I think both Decker's non catches should have been caught. But out of Tebow's 11 incompletions over half were uncatchable. That too doesn't sound like a stat EFX can live with either.

It also seems an average NFL WR would not have too many drops other wise they wont be long for the league.

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Old 11-19-2011, 06:08 PM   #16
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Default The Drive II

Tim Tebow just ended the Jetsí season and put the NFL on notice of his talent. This will be known as the Drive II...
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Old 11-19-2011, 06:18 PM   #17
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Great analysis and read. However, I don't think that it absolves the WRs for dropping "Catchable" balls.

We all know Tebow needs to improve on a lot of things in the passing dept; Footwork, timing, accuracy, etc. But there are WRs on every team making those catches every Sunday and our WRs just aren't.
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Old 11-19-2011, 06:26 PM   #18
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Great analysis and read. However, I don't think that it absolves the WRs for dropping "Catchable" balls.

We all know Tebow needs to improve on a lot of things in the passing dept; Footwork, timing, accuracy, etc. But there are WRs on every team making those catches every Sunday and our WRs just aren't.
Nothing absolves dropping catchable balls, but every team in the league drops about 20% of them or so. Sometimes its passes defensed, sometimes its degree of difficulty, and sometimes its just not being able to secure the catch. Drops are another story entirely.

Decker was the only WR to drop any catchable balls versus the Jets. However, the opposite is also true. He could have had a huge game if Tebow threw the ball more accurately. The QB/WR dynamic can never be truly seperated. They both depend on each other to make plays in the passing game.

I will tell you what I liked about Decker. He blocked like a madman against the Jets as well. Watch who stopped the punk Cromartie on that TD run
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Old 11-19-2011, 06:27 PM   #19
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Tim Tebow just ended the Jetsí season and put the NFL on notice of his talent. This will be known as the Drive II...
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Old 11-19-2011, 06:30 PM   #20
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Nothing absolves dropping catchable balls, but every team in the league drops about 20% of them or so.
What's our %?
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Old 11-19-2011, 06:30 PM   #21
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Great read and excellent analysis. Too bad the talking heads dont give this type of analysis. I did see some videos today from Skip Bayless on Espin and I thought he was on the money too. Thank you for your efforts!

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Old 11-19-2011, 06:30 PM   #22
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Quote:
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Nothing absolves dropping catchable balls, but every team in the league drops about 20% of them or so. Sometimes its passes defensed, sometimes its degree of difficulty, and sometimes its just not being able to secure the catch. Drops are another story entirely.

Decker was the only WR to drop any catchable balls versus the Jets. However, the opposite is also true. He could have had a huge game if Tebow threw the ball more accurately. The QB/WR dynamic can never be truly seperated. They both depend on each other to make plays in the passing game.

I will tell you what I liked about Decker. He blocked like a madman against the Jets as well. Watch who stopped the punk Cromartie on that TD run

I agree with this assessment tebow really needs to work on accuracy sure its great to have receivers that can haul in poor passes but why make it harder than it has to be.
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Old 11-19-2011, 06:34 PM   #23
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What's our %?
I do not know. I have had little ability to do my normal analysis of the Broncos this year. I have only caught three of the games live! This is the first game I wanted to break down this way. Doing the defense next. I love their heart and DL play in this game!
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Old 11-19-2011, 06:39 PM   #24
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I don't understand how you call a pass a catchable ball, but at the same time don't call it a drop by the WR.

This is ofcourse of the passes that hit the WR in their hands and have no outside interference from the defense.
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Old 11-19-2011, 06:39 PM   #25
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I do not know. I have had little ability to do my normal analysis of the Broncos this year. I have only caught three of the games live! This is the first game I wanted to break down this way. Doing the defense next. I love their heart and DL play in this game!

I know i am not alone med when i say i look forward to your takes it really helps me understand whats going on anyways i hope you get more free time
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