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Old 10-10-2011, 11:23 AM   #1
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Moneyball in Denver

Did anyone see “Moneyball”, I thought it was an excellent move? One of the side plots is the refusal of the Athletics head coach to buy into the system being pushed on him. His refusal to play the players assembled by the GM and his assistant almost costs them any chance of making it to the playoffs.

I see the same scenario in Denver with John Fox having no confidence in Tebow and probably not happy with him being forced on to the field by the front office and the fans. Will Fox fight this decisions and become a roadblock to Tebow’s success or will he come onboard? I would like to see an offence built around what Tebow can do not just force him to run the system designed for Orton and see him flounder.

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Old 10-10-2011, 11:31 AM   #2
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Old 10-10-2011, 12:01 PM   #3
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I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago in some thread. Its an apt comparison
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Old 10-10-2011, 12:17 PM   #4
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I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago in some thread. Its an apt comparison
I saw the movie this weekend and I think any Bronco's fan would draw the parallel between Fox and the role of the coach played by Philip Seymour Hoffman. They even kind of look alike.
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Old 10-10-2011, 12:49 PM   #5
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I've been a fan of Moneyball since way back when the book came out (one of my all time favorites). And I've had an unshakable connection in my head between the mystery of Tebow and Moneyball for years.

Here's an excerpt from post from here at the Mane back in September 2010, when he was playing in preseason.


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I've never seen anyone be more instinctively efficient at accomplishing the goal of a football play.

I think one day Michael Lewis will write a book sort of like Moneyball, with a sabremetric approach to football. We'll all wonder why people couldn't see that Tebow was one of the most effective offensive football players to ever lace them up.
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Old 10-10-2011, 12:59 PM   #6
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I've been a fan of Moneyball since way back when the book came out (one of my all time favorites). And I've had an unshakable connection in my head between the mystery of Tebow and Moneyball for years.

Here's an excerpt from post from here at the Mane back in September 2010, when he was playing in preseason.
That makes me think of something that many people seem to willfully ignore or simply miss. When Tebow is on the field, even when it's clear he's far from mastering the game at this level, he just scores points. With his feet, with his arm, it doesn't matter. He just scores points. And he does it when it's obvious he is far from his ceiling as a player. This is why I don't get how some people aren't excited about his potential. His potential is enormous. He may never reach it. He may fall flat. But when it comes to young QBs learning the game, potential is the thing you look at most.

Only one player has as much potential as Tebow on this team. His name is Von Miller.
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Old 10-10-2011, 01:05 PM   #7
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That makes me think of something that many people seem to willfully ignore or simply miss. When Tebow is on the field, even when it's clear he's far from mastering the game at this level, he just scores points. With his feet, with his arm, it doesn't matter. He just scores points. And he does it when it's obvious he is far from his ceiling as a player. This is why I don't get how some people aren't excited about his potential. His potential is enormous. He may never reach it. He may fall flat. But when it comes to young QBs learning the game, potential is the thing you look at most.

Only one player has as much potential as Tebow on this team. His name is Von Miller.
One of the classic lines in the move that is said over and over again when trading for players with obvious flaws or baggage is "why do we want this guy, answer ..... because he gets on base" nothing else matters.
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Old 10-10-2011, 02:59 PM   #8
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Moneyball in Denver

Did anyone see “Moneyball”, I thought it was an excellent move? One of the side plots is the refusal of the Athletics head coach to buy into the system being pushed on him. His refusal to play the players assembled by the GM and his assistant almost costs them any chance of making it to the playoffs.

I see the same scenario in Denver with John Fox having no confidence in Tebow and probably not happy with him being forced on to the field by the front office and the fans. Will Fox fight this decisions and become a roadblock to Tebow’s success or will he come onboard? I would like to see an offence built around what Tebow can do not just force him to run the system designed for Orton and see him flounder.

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Old 10-10-2011, 03:04 PM   #9
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And one of the fundamental premises of Moneyball is that scouts, coaches, GM's got so focused for so long on what was "supposed" to make a good baseball player, that they lost sight of what actually contributes most to winning. They couldn't really quantify a player's limitations (which most players have), and say "How much does this really affect winning, to the good and bad?"

The coach Art Hows (played by Philipp Seymour Hoffman) says it best -- "I'm going to make the decision that I can defend in job interviews next year."

It becomes about avoiding looking stupid by sticking to the consensus of how success is supposed to look -- because if you do that, you can explain away losing and still have a career. But if you go against the conventions about how a good player looks, you have to win. It's a risky gambit until the new consensus emerges.
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Old 10-10-2011, 09:20 PM   #10
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Old 10-10-2011, 09:21 PM   #11
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Old 10-11-2011, 04:38 AM   #12
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Old 10-11-2011, 04:49 AM   #13
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I'll be Jose Consaco, you can be Hideo Nomo.
Liar Liar.
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Old 10-11-2011, 04:51 AM   #14
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I thought the movie was based on things that happened in the early or mid 90s. What did the A's win in the 2000s? What have they won since the bash brothers?
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Old 10-11-2011, 05:33 AM   #15
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I thought the movie was based on things that happened in the early or mid 90s. What did the A's win in the 2000s? What have they won since the bash brothers?
It's not based on winning a particular thing (that's one of the criticisms of the movie and book). But they had one of the longest winning streaks of all time (their longest in franchise history) at 21 games, and it caused a meteoric comeback to make the postseason. But that was the 9/11 year and the Yankees beat them (only to lose to Zona).

But there's an attempted linkage -- after that, the Red Sox want to adopt the "sabremeterics, Bill James" philosophy and tried to hire Billy Beane (Brad Pitt). The Red Sox did hire Bill James. He turns it down to try and get it done in Oakland. 3 years later, the Red Sox win the series.

Now, almost all the teams have come around to the similar philosophy. The book probably changed baseball.
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Old 10-17-2011, 04:14 AM   #16
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Another comment on Moneyball thinking applied to Tebow in today's Florida Times-Union:

http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog...-tebow-gabbert

Quote:
The Monday Hays: Applying 'Moneyball' to Tim Tebow, Gabbert impresses and more



Submitted by Hays Carlyon on October 17, 2011 - 3:02am
The Monday Hays
Borrowing a baseball philosophy to evaluate Tebow

Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane would love Tim Tebow as a player.

The man, who inspired the acclaimed book and film “Moneyball” with his ground-breaking way of evaluating players, valued what traditional scouts didn’t.

Baseball purists viewed players one way. Beane and his team looked at certain players another.

The unique tactics were born out of a need to think differently in order for the cash-strapped A’s to compete with, and beat, baseball’s top-spending franchises.

Beane didn’t care about how a pitcher delivered the ball, as long as he threw strikes. He didn’t care how a batter got to first base, as long as he got there.

Can Beane’s perspective be applied to football? More specifically, to one of its most polarizing players.

Denver quarterback Tim Tebow has been one of the most difficult prospects to evaluate. Some experts think the second-year pro can’t play a lick. Others think he can be successful, while playing with an unconventional style.

To get a sense of Tebow’s value, one must look beyond traditional numbers.

Yes, he has a poor completion percentage at 48.9 percent in his brief NFL career. However, what does every coach want out of his quarterback?

He wants his quarterback to get the team into the end zone and protect the football.

He wants touchdowns at a rapid pace and few turnovers.

The numbers show that Tebow is that kind of quarterback.

So far, Tebow’s NFL career consists mostly of his three starts last season and his one half of football against San Diego last weekend.

His numbers? Thirteen touchdowns accounted for to three total turnovers.

Tebow has attempted 92 passes in the NFL and carried the ball 50 times. That’s a total of 142 plays in which Tebow has directly influenced the game.

Look at his ratio.

Tebow accounts for a touchdown every 10.9 plays. That means for roughly every 11 times Tebow either throws the ball or carries it, he accounts for a score. That’s dazzling production.

What about the turnovers? Tebow gives the ball away an average of every 47.3 plays in which he throws or runs.

Compare those numbers with the quarterback Tebow replaced, Kyle Orton. This season, Orton has a 58.7 completion percentage. That’s decent and way ahead of Tebow. Almost a full 10 points higher. However, look at the key factor in quarterbacking.

Touchdowns and turnovers.

In his 160 attempts or carries, Orton has accounted for eight touchdowns, but turned the ball over nine times. Orton accounts for a touchdown on average every 20 plays. He turns the ball over on average every 17.7 plays in which he directly influences the outcome.

Frankly, it’s not close. Tebow’s numbers at this point of his career are way ahead of Orton’s production this season.

Completion percentage is like batting average. It tells you something, but not everything, about a quarterback or a hitter.

There are those that make the argument that once defenses prepare for Tebow all week, he’ll be exposed. Maybe. But, there’s another side to that argument. How much better might Tebow be when he gets all the first-team reps in practice and is allowed to build more cohesion with his teammates?

We’ll begin to find out this coming Sunday in Miami.

I bet I know which side of the Tebow argument Beane would be on.
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Old 10-17-2011, 04:44 AM   #17
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His numbers? Thirteen touchdowns accounted for to three total turnovers.

Tebow has attempted 92 passes in the NFL and carried the ball 50 times. That’s a total of 142 plays in which Tebow has directly influenced the game.

Look at his ratio.

Tebow accounts for a touchdown every 10.9 plays. That means for roughly every 11 times Tebow either throws the ball or carries it, he accounts for a score. That’s dazzling production.

What about the turnovers? Tebow gives the ball away an average of every 47.3 plays in which he throws or runs.

Compare those numbers with the quarterback Tebow replaced, Kyle Orton. This season, Orton has a 58.7 completion percentage. That’s decent and way ahead of Tebow. Almost a full 10 points higher. However, look at the key factor in quarterbacking.

Touchdowns and turnovers.

In his 160 attempts or carries, Orton has accounted for eight touchdowns, but turned the ball over nine times. Orton accounts for a touchdown on average every 20 plays. He turns the ball over on average every 17.7 plays in which he directly influences the outcome.

Frankly, it’s not close. Tebow’s numbers at this point of his career are way ahead of Orton’s production this season.
Incredible.

Is Xanders the Tebow guy here? I had never really thought about his play in this manner. Tebow produces.

Its strange, because you can perceive Tebow's production but its hard to really quantify by traditional means. Tebow instills confidence in me that he can score. That confidence has developed because he has made scoring look easy in comparison to Orton. When Tebow gets the ball moving, you expect that the drive culminates in a touchdown.

I began to like Jon Gruden when he showed that he was creative and intelligent enough to understand that Tebow is a non-traditional player who produces, and who could revolutionize the way the game is played...the whole "concrete cyanide" bit. Maybe we need to see if Jon Gruden can run our offense.

By all appearances, McCoy seems to be saying that the Broncos will be running the same offense that Orton runs with a few Tebow tweaks. I'd like to see a coach like Gruden draw up an offense for Tebow and to see a really creative offense that challenges traditional defenses and demands that the opposition change the way it plays to play the Broncos...that would give us a fundamental advantage in game planning.

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Old 10-17-2011, 05:00 AM   #18
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Yes, because a weak link, no matter how tenuous between baseball and football, applied to a player like Tebow with no inside information, but based purely on biased outsider observation MUST BE TRUE!!!!

Or at least far more credible than Tebow just not being ready from week 1 no matter how obvious his struggles are.

I wrote in Sept/Oct that it's pretty clear Tebow struggles with Center Exchange, completing a foward pass and was roundly criticized by Tebow nut huggers who claimed I don't watch football.

Pretty much EXACTLY that happens with Tebow badly struggling with the center exchange and any kind of accuracy on his passes and now the shift starts towards just blaming Fox outright for not believing in Tebow and bowing down and worshipping him.

Anything but blame the messiah!
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Old 10-17-2011, 05:11 AM   #19
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Yes, because a weak link, no matter how tenuous between baseball and football, applied to a player like Tebow with no inside information, but based purely on biased outsider observation MUST BE TRUE!!!!

Or at least far more credible than Tebow just not being ready from week 1 no matter how obvious his struggles are.

I wrote in Sept/Oct that it's pretty clear Tebow struggles with Center Exchange, completing a foward pass and was roundly criticized by Tebow nut huggers who claimed I don't watch football.

Pretty much EXACTLY that happens with Tebow badly struggling with the center exchange and any kind of accuracy on his passes and now the shift starts towards just blaming Fox outright for not believing in Tebow and bowing down and worshipping him.

Anything but blame the messiah!
You are missing the prremise and replacing it with one that involves an unrelated discussion.

The premise presented here is that Tebow is an unconventional player who has value in an unconventional way, and that his unconventional production is easily missed by people who view production in a contemporary way.

Your side discussion about whether or not Tebow as a second-year player with a new coaching staff and no offseason who struggled to master the offense and certian aspects of play immediately is tangentially related to the main contention here.
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Old 10-17-2011, 05:35 AM   #20
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Old 10-17-2011, 05:43 AM   #21
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By all appearances, McCoy seems to be saying that the Broncos will be running the same offense that Orton runs with a few Tebow tweaks. I'd like to see a coach like Gruden draw up an offense for Tebow and to see a really creative offense that challenges traditional defenses and demands that the opposition change the way it plays to play the Broncos...that would give us a fundamental advantage in game planning.
It will evolve into a Tebow offense naturally. I don't think we have any offensive geniuses that are up to the task of designing a Tebow offense. But that's one reason I've been dying to get him on the field for a stretch of games.

It will get there by watching what works, what doesn't. They'll start to go back to the well and lean on certain plays when they get in a jam. Certain types of plays will emerge as a strength, and they'll design other plays off of them. Before long, it's a totally different-looking offense.

It's a phenomenon that's been observed many times before -- every NFL team with an established quarterback has subconsciously "morphed" its offense to suit the current starter. It happens because of the data received from game situations.

With Tebow, there's a nice security blanket for the transition period while they're learning. Every game will end (in the 4th quarter) with Tebow in shotgun, looking for a receiver, and getting chunks of scramble yards if it's not there.
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Old 10-17-2011, 05:49 AM   #22
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With Tebow, there's a nice security blanket for the transition period while they're learning. Every game will end (in the 4th quarter) with Tebow in shotgun, looking for a receiver, and getting chunks of scramble yards if it's not there.
Hopefully it ultimately ends with a steady dose of runs by Tebow and McGahee (or whoever) running between the tackles.

But you're right about playing out of shotgun. I think that within a couple of years that Tebow will have mastered the passing game in a way that makes him impossible to stop with 5-wide. It just provides too much space for him to take what he wants.
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Old 10-17-2011, 05:53 AM   #23
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Yes, because a weak link, no matter how tenuous between baseball and football, applied to a player like Tebow with no inside information, but based purely on biased outsider observation MUST BE TRUE!!!!

Or at least far more credible than Tebow just not being ready from week 1 no matter how obvious his struggles are.

I wrote in Sept/Oct that it's pretty clear Tebow struggles with Center Exchange, completing a foward pass and was roundly criticized by Tebow nut huggers who claimed I don't watch football.

Pretty much EXACTLY that happens with Tebow badly struggling with the center exchange and any kind of accuracy on his passes and now the shift starts towards just blaming Fox outright for not believing in Tebow and bowing down and worshipping him.

Anything but blame the messiah!
Yeah, he does struggle with things. Then again so does Orton. Whoa......how about that? Orton nuthuggers?

Your little quips like "Nuthuggers" or Tebow "worshippers" is pathetic. face it, Orton was not the right choice. I am confident this team could be 3-2 if not 4-1 right now if Tebow had been in there.

I am so sick of people saying Tebow was 4th string behind Weber or he didnt beat out Quinn from all of the "reports." Funny, isnt it how a QB that is so horrible and the gap is so great,having a higher passer rating than all of them after the preseason games, isnt it? Oh right, now the "haters" will talk about going against 2nd and 3rd teamers. The "haters" will leave out the fact that he was also playing WITH 3rd teamers. Quinn also went up against the same talent and he had a 70 rating while Tebow had a 108 and you people like Hoge the liar will say Quinn out performed him?

Of course the double standard has always been there. You think BSPN will talk about Newton having a 1-5 record, like when Hoge said,"Bottom line, Tebow isnt wining games." In his arrogant obnoxious way. How about that Newton is the 25th rated passer? Or better yet. The great Bradford who is the 30 rated passer and is 0-5 this year. Oh, all of the excuses for him. Funny, those same experts all said the Rams were favorites in that division. Bradford was the 27th rated passer last year and didnt have a 60 rating in 3 of his last 4 games last year. His only good games were against the 32nd ranked Broncos defense, 31st ranked Redskins defense, and 27th ranked Seahawks defense. All people like you said in the media of Tebow official second start was it doesnt count cause it was against the Texans. Funny, how objective reporters are so non-objective in their points of view, and hypocritical.

What happened at the end of last year? Well, Tebow ended up the highest rated of all the rookies technichally. He generated 11 TDs to 3 TOs.

I will also say this. None of us know how he will do. We did know how Orton would do. He didnt dissappoint. Although, he did do decent for a time, but his confidence was crushed. Starting with the drafting of Tebow and trading for Quinn in the first place. A lot like Plummer's confidence being crushed when Shanahan traded up to get Cutler.

Now, there are CERTAIN Broncos fans cheering against Tebow. I never once cheered against Orton. I would love nothing better to have been wrong about him. I just didnt see how Orton after seeing him for over 2 seasons, would all of a sudden be this dynamic leader of men.

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Old 10-17-2011, 06:00 AM   #24
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You are missing the prremise and replacing it with one that involves an unrelated discussion.

The premise presented here is that Tebow is an unconventional player who has value in an unconventional way, and that his unconventional production is easily missed by people who view production in a contemporary way.

Your side discussion about whether or not Tebow as a second-year player with a new coaching staff and no offseason who struggled to master the offense and certian aspects of play immediately is tangentially related to the main contention here.
Only if you're silly enough to believe that basics like taking the ball from under center are only tangentially related to, you know, playing the QB position.

I know, I know, he doesn't suck at taking snaps under center, he's just unconvential right? And I'm too conventional to see it.


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Old 10-17-2011, 06:04 AM   #25
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Yeah, he does struggle with things. Then again so does Orton. Whoa......how about that? Orton nuthuggers?

Your little quips like "Nuthuggers" or Tebow "worshippers" is pathetic. face it, Orton was not the right choice. I am confident this team could be 3-2 if not 4-1 right now if Tebow had been in there.

I am so sick of people saying Tebow was 4th string behind Weber or he didnt beat out Quinn from all of the "reports." Funny, isnt it how a QB that is so horrible and the gap is so great,having a higher passer rating than all of them after the preseason games, isnt it? Oh right, now the "haters" will talk about going against 2nd and 3rd teamers. The "haters" will leave out the fact that he was also playing WITH 3rd teamers. Quinn also went up against the same talent and he had a 70 rating while Tebow had a 108 and you people like Hoge the liar will say Quinn out performed him?

Of course the double standard has always been there. You think BSPN will talk about Newton having a 1-5 record, like when Hoge said,"Bottom line, Tebow isnt wining games." In his arrogant obnoxious way. How about that Newton is the 25th rated passer? Or better yet. The great Bradford who is the 30 rated passer and is 0-5 this year. Oh, all of the excuses for him. Funny, those same experts all said the Rams were favorites in that division. Bradford was the 27th rated passer last year and didnt have a 60 rating in 3 of his last 4 games last year. His only good games were against the 32nd ranked Broncos defense, 31st ranked Redskins defense, and 27th ranked Seahawks defense. All people like you said in the media of Tebow official second start was it doesnt count cause it was against the Texans. Funny, how objective reporters are so non-objective in their points of view, and hypocritical.

What happened at the end of last year? Well, Tebow ended up the highest rated of all the rookies technichally. He generated 11 TDs to 3 TOs.

I will also say this. None of us know how he will do. We did know how Orton would do. He didnt dissappoint. Although, he did do decent for a time, but his confidence was crushed. Starting with the drafting of Tebow and trading for Quinn in the first place. A lot like Plummer's confidence being crushed when Shanahan traded up to get Cutler.

Now, there are CERTAIN Broncos fans cheering against Tebow. I never once cheered against Orton. I would love nothing better to have been wrong about him. I just didnt see how Orton after seeing him for over 2 seasons, would all of a sudden be this dynamic leader of men.
Uhm, no.

This is what's in discussion: The belief that somehow John Fox is against Tebow, has no confidence in him etc:

Quote:
I see the same scenario in Denver with John Fox having no confidence in Tebow and probably not happy with him being forced on to the field by the front office and the fans. Will Fox fight this decisions and become a roadblock to Tebow’s success or will he come onboard?
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