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Old 10-10-2011, 07:55 AM   #1
BlueandOrange32
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Default TebowQBR

Tebow Total QBR
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7081063/nfl-week...

83.2 while Orton's total QBR was 5.1


Clearly Orton gives us the best chance to win.
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Old 10-10-2011, 07:56 AM   #2
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Still think this is a bum stat over all but pretty accurate in this case.
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Old 10-10-2011, 07:58 AM   #3
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Yeah, I still don't trust that stat. It remains a magic made up number as far as I am concerned.
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Old 10-10-2011, 08:01 AM   #4
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Well one is a PASSER rating and the other takes other stuff into account.

There is other stuff the QB does after all that contributes to wins.
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Old 10-10-2011, 08:10 AM   #5
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I thought I read for that stat in the 50s was average and anything in the 80s is considered very good

so far so good I guess
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Old 10-10-2011, 08:17 AM   #6
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Love all the Tebow talk!
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Old 10-10-2011, 08:23 AM   #7
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QBR is an utter bull**** stat with so many subjective factors even a sociologist would give it the stink-eye.

Give me enough free parameters and I can model anything, especially if I never have to tell you what those parameters are and what they mean.
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Old 10-10-2011, 08:29 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gyldenlove View Post
QBR is an utter bull**** stat with so many subjective factors even a sociologist would give it the stink-eye.

Give me enough free parameters and I can model anything, especially if I never have to tell you what those parameters are and what they mean.
agree with this
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Old 10-10-2011, 08:31 AM   #9
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Here's a simple stat.

Orton- produced one field goal.

Tebow- produced two TDs, nearly completed game tying two point conversion, then drove them into range of a makeable final play with :01 left.

I'm not sure what that stat would be called but i'll take Tebow.
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Old 10-10-2011, 08:38 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason in LA View Post
Here's a simple stat.

Orton- produced one field goal.

Tebow- produced two TDs, nearly completed game tying two point conversion, then drove them into range of a makeable final play with :01 left.

I'm not sure what that stat would be called but i'll take Tebow.
It is called the, Tebow produces as could be seen last season and I have no clue how anyone could have been dumb enough to want Orton in there, stat. I still am kind of wondering about our front office because of this. It was a very stupid move to play Orton. I almost wish Fox would have stuck with his decision so he could go down with Orton. It would be nice to have a coach that recognizes talent and production again. Now I'm just hoping Fox turns it around and doesn't make any more mistakes that cost us games.
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Old 10-10-2011, 08:47 AM   #11
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tebow didn't turn the ball over like the statue of orton does...
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Old 10-10-2011, 09:02 AM   #12
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I agree. QBR does not take into consideration things like; improvisation, heart, inspiration and will to lead the troops to battle 'til the end.

As long as Tebow has the ball in his hands, the play is not dead, the game is not over. That's what I like about the kid.
Great stuff. Fun to watch, and you know that excitement he brings to the table is the feeling that we can always win every Sunday, that we have a chance to win every time he's on the field.
I haven't had that feeling in a long time.
Football is again fun to watch for me. It's fun to root for your team when you know your QB is a gamer.
Yeah, it's not going to be pretty perhaps; especially in the next 3 games or so as Tebow develops timing with his receivers. Once that happens, his game will improve from the passing accuracy standpoint.

Also, his receivers now need to understand that when a play breaks down, they need to get their asses open, as long as Tebow has the ball the play is NOT dead.
He will make things happen. He will battle til the end. He won't easily be denied!

Intangibles off the chart. Tremendous improvisation talent.
Can't teach that!
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Old 10-10-2011, 09:19 AM   #13
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agree with this
You may not agree with it, but maybe I can change your mind.

Many people make fun of the fact that Elway has a career PASSER rating of 79.

Many of us fans blame Reeves. We think Reeves was this overly conservative coach. Well, that is totally untrue.Reeves was considered to be one of the most innovative coaches and a true offensive mind. That was why he was hired. To be the exact opposite of Red Miller. Elway had the most pass attempts in a season under Reeves in 1985.

No, the QBR ratin will give a better idea as to how it is he had the most wins as a starter, started in the most SB as a starter and had the most 4th quarter come backs.

The QBR actually illuminates those reasons.
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Old 10-10-2011, 09:21 AM   #14
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I don't care about Tebow's QB ratings if he can win games. But, simple logic tells us that he has to be able to complete passes as a QB at this level. Hopefully that can improve next game.
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Old 10-10-2011, 09:52 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Br0nc0Buster View Post
I thought I read for that stat in the 50s was average and anything in the 80s is considered very good

so far so good I guess
Yep. The QBs ranked in the 50's are in the middle. Orton is dead last. Tebow is near the top ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
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Old 10-10-2011, 10:21 AM   #16
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I love how this is working out with the QBR -- ESPN is rolling out their precious new stat that is supposed to show how much a quarterback really contributes to winning a game, and just when they're trying to build a foundation for its credibility, Tebow starts crapping on it by scoring high on QBR. It forces ESPN to either backtrack on what many of its hired guns are saying, or else crap on their stat.
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Old 10-10-2011, 11:30 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueandOrange32 View Post
You may not agree with it, but maybe I can change your mind.

Many people make fun of the fact that Elway has a career PASSER rating of 79.

Many of us fans blame Reeves. We think Reeves was this overly conservative coach. Well, that is totally untrue.Reeves was considered to be one of the most innovative coaches and a true offensive mind. That was why he was hired. To be the exact opposite of Red Miller. Elway had the most pass attempts in a season under Reeves in 1985.

No, the QBR ratin will give a better idea as to how it is he had the most wins as a starter, started in the most SB as a starter and had the most 4th quarter come backs.

The QBR actually illuminates those reasons.
That does nothing to change my mind. The QBR is mostly subjective and besides a number and someone at espn telling us we should believe, there is no other information given about it. If they were to reveal the process in determining the grade, and give concrete examples of grades, than I would start to see legitimacy in it.

Last edited by smoke4815162342; 10-10-2011 at 11:33 AM..
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Old 10-10-2011, 11:35 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Popps View Post
I don't care about Tebow's QB ratings if he can win games. But, simple logic tells us that he has to be able to complete passes as a QB at this level. Hopefully that can improve next game.
Hater...
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Old 10-10-2011, 11:38 AM   #19
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Quote:
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I don't care about Tebow's QB ratings if he can win games. But, simple logic tells us that he has to be able to complete passes as a QB at this level. Hopefully that can improve next game.
Apparently you missed that nifty screen to Moreno.
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Old 10-11-2011, 06:09 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smoke4815162342 View Post
That does nothing to change my mind. The QBR is mostly subjective and besides a number and someone at espn telling us we should believe, there is no other information given about it. If they were to reveal the process in determining the grade, and give concrete examples of grades, than I would start to see legitimacy in it.
Agree, I have no issue with people attempting to develop metrics with which to measure how much an athlete actually contributes to a team's victory. In fact, I applaud any effort to that effect as the tools that we have now could charitably be described as primitive.

But I don't trust ESPN. I'm sorry, I don't. And when they trot out this magic number that is supposed to be some kind of measure of a QB's performance, but don't give me any information how they calculated it......well, it just smacks of voodoo mathematics. ESPN has an agenda. They have a narrative that they want to construct and now they have a new stat that they can tailor behind the scenes to support that narrative. That's not progress.
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Old 10-11-2011, 08:18 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by smoke4815162342 View Post
That does nothing to change my mind. The QBR is mostly subjective and besides a number and someone at espn telling us we should believe, there is no other information given about it. If they were to reveal the process in determining the grade, and give concrete examples of grades, than I would start to see legitimacy in it.
There is no rating system that is perfect. I said the QBR gives a better idea as to how Elway won at the rate he did.

The passer rating in his case was not a good analysis. There were other aspects of what Elway did that isnt seen in the passer rating, that is accounted for in the QBR.

Like the "clutch index."
Clutch Index


The final major step is to look at how "clutch" the situation was when creating expected points. A normal play has a clutch index of 1.0. For instance, first-and-goal from the 10-yard line in a tie game at the start of the second quarter has a clutch index of almost exactly 1.0. A more clutch situation, one late in the game when the game is close -- the same situation as above but midway through the fourth quarter, for example -- has a clutch index of about 2.0. Maximum clutch indices are about 3.0, and minimum indices are about 0.3.

These clutch index values came from an analysis of how different situations affect a game's win probability on average. One way to think of it is in terms of pressure. A clutch play is defined before the play by how close the game appears to be. Down four points with three seconds to go and facing third-and-goal from the 3-yard line -- that is a high-pressure and high-clutch index situation because the play can realistically raise the odds of winning to almost 100 percent or bring them down from about 40 percent to almost zero percent. The same situation from midfield isn't as high pressure because it's very unlikely that the team will pull out the victory. Sure, a Hail Mary can pull the game out, but if it doesn't work, the team didn't fail on that play so much as it failed before then. On third-and-goal from the 3-yard line, failure means people will be talking about that final play and what went wrong.



The clutch indices are multiplied by the quarterback's expected points on plays when the QB had a significant contribution, then divided by the sum of the clutch indices and multiplied by 100 to get a clutch-valued expected points added per 100 plays.
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Old 10-11-2011, 08:24 AM   #22
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QBR is a bum stat. Still ... 5.1?! I didn't know the scale went that low.
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Old 10-11-2011, 08:26 AM   #23
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QBR is a bum stat. Still ... 5.1?! I didn't know the scale went that low.
You think it ought to be higher? 6 for 13 30 yards and an int? You want it higher, or is 5.1 too high like I think?
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Old 10-11-2011, 08:45 AM   #24
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Quote:
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Still think this is a bum stat over all but pretty accurate in this case.
Tebow's 84 might need an asterisk. Orton's 5.1 does not (and that's not factoring a dropped int).
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Old 10-11-2011, 08:48 AM   #25
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That missed 90 yard TD pass to a streaking Decker still kills me.

I wish so badly that happened just to see the reaction of the crowd and response of the critics since that would have been a play that was only possible due to his scrambling.
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