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Old 11-09-2018, 01:38 PM   #1
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footstepsfrom#27's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Arlington, TX
Posts: 34,746

Royce Freeman
Default The GOP's biggest demographic problem is not race

Age Accounts for One of the Most Significant Divides in American Politics
Below the radar screen and lost amidst a tidal wave of racism, xenophobia and misogynistic rage coming from the white nationalists and their chosen cult leader, lies a gathering storm of demographic reality that can't be shut down with voter suppression tactics or gerrymandering. And despite the GOP's dreams, it's not going to magically disintegrate with the generational transfer.

Young voters are voting in historically large numbers, and they hate the GOP.

The standard GOP repudiation of this reality...that people get more conservative over time, has never been tested in the age of ubiquitous access to information and social media spaces. It's unchartered territory, and likely wishful thinking this time. Technology changes the world, and there's no indication this won't hold true again.

Midterms Saw Historic Turnout by Young Voters

By John Della Volpe

Since 2017, Harvard Institute of Politics’ polling of young Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 has strongly tracked a renewed interest in the importance and efficacy of political engagement, a growing level of dissatisfaction with Washington -- and in the 2018 midterm elections, as we projected, they clearly made their voices heard through the ballot boxes in House and Senate races from coast to coast.

According to CIRCLE at the Tufts University Tisch College, approximately 31 percent of youth (ages 18-29) turned out to vote in the 2018 midterms, an extraordinary increase over the CIRCLE estimate in 2014 and the highest rate of turnout in at least 25 years. In 2014, IOP estimates that approximately 10.8 million young Americans voted (Democrats preferred, 54 percent-43 percent), compared to 14.7 million in 2018 (Democrats preferred, 67 percent-32 percent). The actual number of Republican votes cast by those under age 30 remained stable from 2014 to 2018, while nearly all of the nearly 4 million increase in turnout came from those supporting Democrats.

Voters under 30 (estimated share of 13 percent of electorate) were credited by NBC News analysts as one of the key groups that led to a Democratic takeover of the House, along with African-Americans (estimated share of 11 percent), Hispanic/Latino Americans (share 11 percent), and those with no religious preference (17 percent). Exit polls have indicated that voters under 30 preferred Democrats by a +31-percentage point margin, tracking closely with our final IOP poll conducted after the Brett Kavanaugh hearings that indicated a Democratic preference of +34. For example, if the proportion of young voters on Tuesday mirrored traditional midterm youth turnout, districts such as TX-32 (incumbent House Rules Chairman Pete Sessions lost by six percentage points) and GA-06 (Newt Gingrich’s former seat, won with 2,145-vote margin by Democrat Lucy McBath) would likely not have flipped from Republican to Democratic control.

According to analysis of exit polls, young voters also played a critical role in Democrats winning the Senate seat in Nevada, and made the Texas Senate race more competitive than polls predicted (the RCP average for Ted Cruz was +6.8; Cruz was winning by 2.62 points with 97 percent of ballots counted). Exceeding the national youth margin for Democrats (from +31 to +37, likely because of young Hispanic voters) propelled Jacky Rosen to victory in Nevada over incumbent Dean Heller. More detailed reporting on the impact of young voters in key races and the difference in the electorate between voters over and under the age of 45 follows:

In Nevada, where estimated youth turnout was 19 percent, Rosen bested Heller by +37, 67 percent to 30 percent; and among those between 30 and 44, the margin was +23, 60 percent to 37 percent; Heller won the over 45 vote by +13;

In Texas, voters under 30 preferred Beto O’Rourke to Cruz, 71 percent to 29 percent (+42), and among those between 30 and 44, the margin was cut to only +4, 51 percent to 47 percent; Cruz won the over 45 vote by +16. Compared to the national electorate, O’Rourke overperformed with voters under 30, but underperformed with those between 30 and 39. If his margin of support among 30- to 39-year-olds better reflected the national electorate, he would have won the election. Estimates are that he would have needed a margin of 20 points or less with voters in their 30s;

In Florida, voters under 30 preferred Andrew Gillum to Ron DeSantis, 62 percent to 36 percent (+26), and among those between 30 and 44, it was 61 percent to 33 (+28) percent for Gillum; DeSantis won the over 45 vote by +9;

In the Georgia race for governor, Brian Kemp led with both men and women (+6 for men and +1 for women); however, among voters under 30, Stacy Abrams led by +27, by +16 among 30-to-44-year-olds, and lost those over 45 by +19.

While we will not have a final tally of votes cast for several weeks, Edison Research has estimated as many as 113 million people may have voted, and the United States Election Project has estimated a national turnout of 111.5 million, which makes this the first midterm election that will surpass the 100 million vote mark. The Election Project projects a national turnout rate of 47.3 percent, which equals the 1970 rate and trails the modern record of 48.7 percent from 1966. We are confident that the increased turnout rate among young Americans under 30 matched, and likely surpassed, older age groups -- and will set modern records once tallies are finalized.

A generation that has consistently told us in polling that they have more fear than hope about the future seem prepared to further engage in politics and policy (look for a more progressive domestic agenda and heightened demand for gun violence prevention legislation). We fully expect that they will play a significant role in shaping our country's future through their commitment to service and renewed interest in politics.
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