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Old 05-09-2018, 03:44 AM   #276
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Hey footsteps, just realized you are also in Dallas. I live up north of the speedway

No kidding? Most of my summers as a kid were spent round the corner from Mockingbird and Abrams, in the shadow of the old Dr. Pepper headquarters.

I'd go with my cousin on his paper route on Woodfin Drive - John Niland and another Cowboy (supposedly), saw David Clyde pitch, threw frisbees off the Reunion Tower Observation Deck the year it opened, and saw the entire Dallas Cowboys team disembark at Love Field after I think a preseason game.




But NEVER ... did I EVER ... for one minute ... even consider following the Dallas Texans ...
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Old 05-09-2018, 04:13 AM   #277
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I feel like they would have clapped for anyone.
Bingo!

But this guy, Zero Volts. Based on his grammar, syntax and spelling, he's not your everyday Narrowhead denizen. I'd peg him, on the Wunderlic scale - in the 90th percentile of chefs fans. Maybe 19 on the Wunderlic scale, light years ahead of the Boob.

But even a "bright" Chef-fer like him has managed to delude himself - all in - that this kid is a 'generational' quarterback talent, when all he's really done is burn his "red-shirt" season. Everybody seems to forget how very often even 1st round quarterbacks fail miserably in the League.

I can't go "all in," but I will push a half-stack to the middle that McGloin or Henne will replace MaChromez - in-game, non-injury - at least once in 2018.
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Old 05-09-2018, 05:24 AM   #278
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You do realize that where Joe Namath and Terry Bradshaw were picked are completely meaningless to the modern NFL arena right? Can you even tell me who drafted Len Dawson? Does Steve Young count into those statistics, who was picked 1st in the supplemental draft, sucked and spent the first part of his career backing up one the the greatest QB's to put on a uniform...who was a 3rd round draft pick.

Raw numbers without context are meaningless.

In 52 Superbowls, there are 6 QB's that were selected #1 overall. 2 of those (Peyton Manning, Jim Plunkett) won championships on teams that didn't even draft them. So now we are down to 5 teams that benefited from drafting (or trading for) the #1 draft selection. Eli Manning is one of those QB's.

So here are the teams that got championships out of their own #1 overall draft picks...

Denver
Indianapolis
Pittsburgh
Dallas
NY Giants

Elway earned 2 late in his career, but lost 3 times, to a 1st rounder (Simms who threw more picks than TD's that season), a traded back up QB from Tampa Doug Williams, and 3rd rounder Joe Montana.

Peyton won 2, but lost to a 2nd rounder (Brees) and was more passenger than playmaker in his 2nd win on his second team.

Bradshaw won all his for Pitt, probably why he is widely considered the ideal franchise player and the greatest QB of all time right?

Aikman won all his for Dallas, of course Dallas also won 2 Superbowls with 10th round selection Roger Staubach.

Eli won all his for NY.

Do these really seem like the most common and guaranteed paths to championships?
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Old 05-09-2018, 05:57 AM   #279
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You do realize that where Joe Namath and Terry Bradshaw were picked are completely meaningless to the modern NFL arena right? Can you even tell me who drafted Len Dawson? Does Steve Young count into those statistics, who was picked 1st in the supplemental draft, sucked and spent the first part of his career backing up one the the greatest QB's to put on a uniform...who was a 3rd round draft pick.

Raw numbers without context are meaningless.

In 52 Superbowls, there are 6 QB's that were selected #1 overall. 2 of those (Peyton Manning, Jim Plunkett) won championships on teams that didn't even draft them. So now we are down to 5 teams that benefited from drafting (or trading for) the #1 draft selection. Eli Manning is one of those QB's.

So here are the teams that got championships out of their own #1 overall draft picks...

Denver
Indianapolis
Pittsburgh
Dallas
NY Giants

Elway earned 2 late in his career, but lost 3 times, to a 1st rounder (Simms who threw more picks than TD's that season), a traded back up QB from Tampa Doug Williams, and 3rd rounder Joe Montana.

Peyton won 2, but lost to a 2nd rounder (Brees) and was more passenger than playmaker in his 2nd win on his second team.

Bradshaw won all his for Pitt, probably why he is widely considered the ideal franchise player and the greatest QB of all time right?

Aikman won all his for Dallas, of course Dallas also won 2 Superbowls with 10th round selection Roger Staubach.

Eli won all his for NY.

Do these really seem like the most common and guaranteed paths to championships?
Most of those teams had dynamic defenses. The Colts could be viewed as the exception to that rule, however their defense really played very well when they got Bob Sanders back.

Anyway, that is the most common denominator among the SB champions. People can say for example that the 49ers won those SBs in the 80s because of Montana and new offense called the west coast offense.

Well, I maintain that it was their defenses that sealed the titles. The first SB, the 49ers had a big goal line stance that essentially won it. The second SB, their defense with 4 pro bowl DBs shut down the Marino offense. They held the Bengals dynamic offense to 16 points and raped Elway in XXIV.

Anyway, behind most of those stories is a really dynamic defense. I like your point too about the first overall pick being QB guarantees nothing.
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Old 05-09-2018, 07:49 AM   #280
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Most of those teams had dynamic defenses. The Colts could be viewed as the exception to that rule, however their defense really played very well when they got Bob Sanders back.

Anyway, that is the most common denominator among the SB champions. People can say for example that the 49ers won those SBs in the 80s because of Montana and new offense called the west coast offense.

Well, I maintain that it was their defenses that sealed the titles. The first SB, the 49ers had a big goal line stance that essentially won it. The second SB, their defense with 4 pro bowl DBs shut down the Marino offense. They held the Bengals dynamic offense to 16 points and raped Elway in XXIV.

Anyway, behind most of those stories is a really dynamic defense. I like your point too about the first overall pick being QB guarantees nothing.
Nailed it. The greatest common factor for Championship teams is the defense. QB's get the vast majority of the headlines, but defense is where the real success is built.

When discussing the 1999 Rams, focus always goes towards the Greatest show on Turf. Yet failed to be mentioned is their Defense only gave up 15.1 Points per game.

Farve in 1996 was Mr. NFL. That Superbowl team only gave up 13 points per game.

The Rodgers Packers? #2 scoring Defense in the league.

Aikman's Cowboys? Top 3 in scoring defense every Championship season.

New England: All with Brady and Belly
Avg scoring defense rank in Superbowl winning seasons: 3.6
Avg scoring defense rank in Superbowl losing seasons: 8
Avg scoring defense rank in Non-Superbowl seasons: 9.5

Kansas City 2017 Defensive Rankings: 15th in points, 28th in yards
Kansas City 2017 Offensive Rankings: 6th in points, 5th in yards
Kansas City approach to building championship team : Spend 2 first round draft picks on a QB
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Old 05-09-2018, 08:08 AM   #281
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Nailed it. The greatest common factor for Championship teams is the defense. QB's get the vast majority of the headlines, but defense is where the real success is built.

When discussing the 1999 Rams, focus always goes towards the Greatest show on Turf. Yet failed to be mentioned is their Defense only gave up 15.1 Points per game.

Farve in 1996 was Mr. NFL. That Superbowl team only gave up 13 points per game.

The Rodgers Packers? #2 scoring Defense in the league.

Aikman's Cowboys? Top 3 in scoring defense every Championship season.

New England: All with Brady and Belly
Avg scoring defense rank in Superbowl winning seasons: 3.6
Avg scoring defense rank in Superbowl losing seasons: 8
Avg scoring defense rank in Non-Superbowl seasons: 9.5

Kansas City 2017 Defensive Rankings: 15th in points, 28th in yards
Kansas City 2017 Offensive Rankings: 6th in points, 5th in yards
Kansas City approach to building championship team : Spend 2 first round draft picks on a QB
The flip side though is that often times when you get to the final 4 or so you're usually playing teams that are pretty decent on defense.

So the question becomes which guy can get it done against the league's better defenses. QB still pretty critical. Even though I agree with the larger point that defenses are usually underrated in championship runs.
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:02 AM   #282
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The flip side though is that often times when you get to the final 4 or so you're usually playing teams that are pretty decent on defense.

So the question becomes which guy can get it done against the league's better defenses. QB still pretty critical. Even though I agree with the larger point that defenses are usually underrated in championship runs.
Everything is critical, that's the beauty of football over so many of the other sports.

We isolate things down too much though, people seem to need their Lebrons, their one man teams.

Is it better to have an amazing QB, while also having a top defense? Of course, but Elway actually had damn good defense in the 80's, but it wasn't until the team got some balance that he broke through.

What happened when the greatest scoring offense in the history of the league, led by arguably the best passer in history, met an elite defense in the Superbowl?

The second highest scoring offense in league history and undefeated regular season juggernaut was put on it's ass by an elite pass rush.

You gotta be a complete team.

I firmly believe good becomes great based on perspective and situation. I don't for a minute think that Tom Brady becomes what he is if he was drafted by Jeff Fisher, for example. He might have been considered good, but never great. What is someone like Chad Pennington ended up with NE instead and he wins a couple Superbowls....suddenly he's the elite player.

Opportunity, patience, team support, effort and a little luck. All needed to be the mythical franchise player. High draft picks get a lot more of the 1st three.
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:06 AM   #283
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Nailed it. The greatest common factor for Championship teams is the defense. QB's get the vast majority of the headlines, but defense is where the real success is built.

When discussing the 1999 Rams, focus always goes towards the Greatest show on Turf. Yet failed to be mentioned is their Defense only gave up 15.1 Points per game.

Farve in 1996 was Mr. NFL. That Superbowl team only gave up 13 points per game.

The Rodgers Packers? #2 scoring Defense in the league.

Aikman's Cowboys? Top 3 in scoring defense every Championship season.

New England: All with Brady and Belly
Avg scoring defense rank in Superbowl winning seasons: 3.6
Avg scoring defense rank in Superbowl losing seasons: 8
Avg scoring defense rank in Non-Superbowl seasons: 9.5

Kansas City 2017 Defensive Rankings: 15th in points, 28th in yards
Kansas City 2017 Offensive Rankings: 6th in points, 5th in yards
Kansas City approach to building championship team : Spend 2 first round draft picks on a QB
We could start another thread to discuss QB's and draft positon (and if you want to have that discussion, I'd enjoy having it.) Also, I am well aware that when you go and look at championship teams you find that they have a top 10 D AND top 10 O almost always. When you apply that idea to todays salary cap world...you need either A) A QB who you have aquired on a cheap contract, who turns out to be very good so you have a 4-5 year window of cap flexibilty to really build up a roster around him..OR B) A QB, who is making a ton of money and eating up 20% of your cap, BUT, who is good enough to elevate the crap you surround him with because your cap isn't flexible. (Rodgers, Brady)

I have said throughout this thread it is possible to win via C) ....building a great team around a game manager QB....but it is very hard to do because in that case, you need to really hit on 2-3 drafts in a row, your FA and trades need to mostly hit or be better than you thought, and you get lucky and it all comes together for one year. ONE year is pretty much your window if it all falls right.

With a franchise QB (regardless of how you obtained him) ...your window is every year he plays at a high level. From 1983 to 1999, the Broncos were ALWAYS a legit contender for a super bowl because they had Elway. Some years didn't work out well, but you fix the problems and again the next sesaon, you are a legit contender. The 2000 Ravens, were not a contender in 99 and they weren't a contender in 01. In 2000, they had it all come together just right and won a title. Same with the 85 Bears, same with the 02 Bucs.

Ultimately, Case Keenum and the good parts you all still have left on the roster may well have some magic in them. I doubt it...the vast majority of the time a roster is put together like this, you go 10-6 and aren't a real threat. That's not even the biggest problem...most of you here (see Case Keenum thread) already understand this...the problem is once you go 10-6 or so you get stuck in a rut of thinking you are just a piece or two away AND/OR you know you actually need to a stud at QB, bu you are drafting 22nd every damn year, and most draft years have 1 maybe 2 QB prospects worth damn in them if at all. Peyton Manning doesn't just come onto the market every offseason either.

So, the crux of my original post comes down to this. KC identified, and drafted a QB they thought had a high ceiling. they developed him on the bench and traded away Alex Smith to make room for him. We are trying to do this the franchise QB way.

Denver, due to circumstances, poor drafting (apparently) with Lynch, and then signing keenum, making the drafting of Rosen less than optimal...are now going about this the "build a strong team way"

KC may yet fail again..I may be totally off on Mahomes (I'm not, but I'll indulge the idea for the sake of argument) ...but the "get a franchise QB and try and build find the right parts around him every year" is the more likely way to succeed than the notion of "building a great team around a journeyman QB."

.....take that one step further....you are asking John Elway to have sustained success in the draft for 2-3 years, to assemble a roster good enough that Case Keenum can lead it to a title. ....Minnesota is a pretty damn complete team....
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:10 AM   #284
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in b4 Mahomes has a 18/30 TD/INT ratio this year and the Chiefs go pick up yet another 49ers re-tread QB in 3 years.
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:19 AM   #285
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Ultimately, Case Keenum and the good parts you all still have left on the roster may well have some magic in them. I doubt it...the vast majority of the time a roster is put together like this, you go 10-6 and aren't a real threat. That's not even the biggest problem...most of you here (see Case Keenum thread) already understand this...the problem is once you go 10-6 or so you get stuck in a rut of thinking you are just a piece or two away AND/OR you know you actually need to a stud at QB, bu you are drafting 22nd every damn year, and most draft years have 1 maybe 2 QB prospects worth damn in them if at all. Peyton Manning doesn't just come onto the market every offseason either.
That is actually my point right there. That is the myth being perpetuated. That it has to be a high draft pick to get the "franchise" QB.

Brady
Rothlesberger
Brees
Rodgers
Russell

These are what the QB people are looking for....and every single one of them drafted 22nd or later.
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:22 AM   #286
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That is actually my point right there. That is the myth being perpetuated. That it has to be a high draft pick to get the "franchise" QB.

Brady
Rothlesberger
Brees
Rodgers
Russell

These are what the QB people are looking for....and every single one of them drafted 22nd or later.
1st of All Big Ben was pick 13 as I recall...but I understand your point....and if you had read this freaking book of posts I have written, you'd see that I have said only that it is most likely that if you are going to find a franchise QB, you'll find him in round 1...he can be found in FA, in later rounds..it's just very very unlikely.
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:24 AM   #287
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Is it better to have an amazing QB, while also having a top defense? Of course, but Elway actually had damn good defense in the 80's, but it wasn't until the team got some balance that he broke through.
'Damn good' by AFC standards maybe. We likely never would've emerged from the NFC in those days.

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What happened when the greatest scoring offense in the history of the league, led by arguably the best passer in history, met an elite defense in the Superbowl?

You gotta be a complete team.

I firmly believe good becomes great based on perspective and situation. I don't for a minute think that Tom Brady becomes what he is if he was drafted by Jeff Fisher, for example. He might have been considered good, but never great. What is someone like Chad Pennington ended up with NE instead and he wins a couple Superbowls....suddenly he's the elite player.

Opportunity, patience, team support, effort and a little luck. All needed to be the mythical franchise player. High draft picks get a lot more of the 1st three.
Not arguing. Just saying a great QB in his prime is usually going to get his. And that's hard to compete with, assuming most of the other components are in place.

I think 2013 was a combination of a QB finally falling past his prime, and just awful, awful protection finally coming home to roost.
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:26 AM   #288
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That is actually my point right there. That is the myth being perpetuated. That it has to be a high draft pick to get the "franchise" QB.

Brady
Rothlesberger
Brees
Rodgers
Russell

These are what the QB people are looking for....and every single one of them drafted 22nd or later.
No Mahomie?

Fail.
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:28 AM   #289
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in b4 Mahomes has a 18/30 TD/INT ratio this year and the Chiefs go pick up yet another 49ers re-tread QB in 3 years.
NAILED IT.
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:31 AM   #290
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'Damn good' by AFC standards maybe. We likely never would've emerged from the NFC in those days.



Not arguing. Just saying a great QB in his prime is usually going to get his. And that's hard to compete with, assuming most of the other components are in place.

I think 2013 was a combination of a QB finally falling past his prime, and just awful, awful protection finally coming home to roost.
These are some great points....I tend to think that soneone like Elway was going to emerge as a great player no matter where he ended up. Manning...probalby Rodgers...but I'd like to think Brady was in a great situation, and he is great, but like it was said..Jeff Fisher would have never played the guy...and if he did...Fisher ran some very unimanginative offenses....a healthy Chad Pennington probalby could have been somewhat close to a Brady if he were in New England...we'll never know.....but landing in a good place helps....and hey!....that leads me another point in my favor!

Andy Ried sure seems to be a good spot to land if you are a QB. He got Alex Smith to be a NFL passing leader...he got Michael Vicks best production out of him...Foles, A J Feely.....Ried is alergic to clocks and he gets too cute sometimes with play calls, but you can do a lot worse as a QB than ending up with Ried as your coach. ......Mahomes is in great hands...
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:40 AM   #291
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We could start another thread to discuss QB's and draft positon (and if you want to have that discussion, I'd enjoy having it.) Also, I am well aware that when you go and look at championship teams you find that they have a top 10 D AND top 10 O almost always. When you apply that idea to todays salary cap world...you need either A) A QB who you have aquired on a cheap contract, who turns out to be very good so you have a 4-5 year window of cap flexibilty to really build up a roster around him..OR B) A QB, who is making a ton of money and eating up 20% of your cap, BUT, who is good enough to elevate the crap you surround him with because your cap isn't flexible. (Rodgers, Brady)

I have said throughout this thread it is possible to win via C) ....building a great team around a game manager QB....but it is very hard to do because in that case, you need to really hit on 2-3 drafts in a row, your FA and trades need to mostly hit or be better than you thought, and you get lucky and it all comes together for one year. ONE year is pretty much your window if it all falls right.

With a franchise QB (regardless of how you obtained him) ...your window is every year he plays at a high level. From 1983 to 1999, the Broncos were ALWAYS a legit contender for a super bowl because they had Elway. Some years didn't work out well, but you fix the problems and again the next sesaon, you are a legit contender. The 2000 Ravens, were not a contender in 99 and they weren't a contender in 01. In 2000, they had it all come together just right and won a title. Same with the 85 Bears, same with the 02 Bucs.

Ultimately, Case Keenum and the good parts you all still have left on the roster may well have some magic in them. I doubt it...the vast majority of the time a roster is put together like this, you go 10-6 and aren't a real threat. That's not even the biggest problem...most of you here (see Case Keenum thread) already understand this...the problem is once you go 10-6 or so you get stuck in a rut of thinking you are just a piece or two away AND/OR you know you actually need to a stud at QB, bu you are drafting 22nd every damn year, and most draft years have 1 maybe 2 QB prospects worth damn in them if at all. Peyton Manning doesn't just come onto the market every offseason either.

So, the crux of my original post comes down to this. KC identified, and drafted a QB they thought had a high ceiling. they developed him on the bench and traded away Alex Smith to make room for him. We are trying to do this the franchise QB way.

Denver, due to circumstances, poor drafting (apparently) with Lynch, and then signing keenum, making the drafting of Rosen less than optimal...are now going about this the "build a strong team way"

KC may yet fail again..I may be totally off on Mahomes (I'm not, but I'll indulge the idea for the sake of argument) ...but the "get a franchise QB and try and build find the right parts around him every year" is the more likely way to succeed than the notion of "building a great team around a journeyman QB."

.....take that one step further....you are asking John Elway to have sustained success in the draft for 2-3 years, to assemble a roster good enough that Case Keenum can lead it to a title. ....Minnesota is a pretty damn complete team....
You keep referring to Case Keenum as a "game manager", but you offer no evidence to show why the boy wonder and his 3 quarters of NFL football against a mixed bag of bored starters and bench scrubs playing out a losing season in their final game is anything more than that. He's got a nice arm...so what...plenty of NFL game managers had nice arms. You say you're not talking stats, but the plain facts are, without his Air Raid numbers, there's nothing to suggest he'd have drawn the kind of interest he did as a top 10 pick. Keenum also put up big numbers in that system, and while his arm is not quite as stong, this has proven to be an overrated thing for NFL success. He has mobility, accuracy and he throws a catchable ball. He spent his first four years on terrible teams behind other QB's before getting a chance. Because he did, he's considered a "game manager".

What has boy wonder done? Beyond his Air Raid numbers...nothing.

Yet you predict a 15 year dynasty off this.

Get real...he could easily be a bust like most of the other AR guys.
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:51 AM   #292
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These are some great points....I tend to think that soneone like Elway was going to emerge as a great player no matter where he ended up. Manning...probalby Rodgers...but I'd like to think Brady was in a great situation, and he is great, but like it was said..Jeff Fisher would have never played the guy...and if he did...Fisher ran some very unimanginative offenses....a healthy Chad Pennington probalby could have been somewhat close to a Brady if he were in New England...we'll never know.....but landing in a good place helps....and hey!....that leads me another point in my favor!

Andy Ried sure seems to be a good spot to land if you are a QB. He got Alex Smith to be a NFL passing leader...he got Michael Vicks best production out of him...Foles, A J Feely.....Ried is alergic to clocks and he gets too cute sometimes with play calls, but you can do a lot worse as a QB than ending up with Ried as your coach. ......Mahomes is in great hands...
Reid had a real franchise QB in Donovan McNabb in Philly, and couldn't transform that into a title.

He shares that with another guy familiar to us here...



I'm not impressed with Andy Reid either.
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:52 AM   #293
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This thread is a win-win for zerovoltz. He hopes Mahomes is a generational talent. He will bump this thread for years. He will become a resident KC troll that always says “I told you so.”

If Mahomes flames out, he will go away and come back next offseason with a new username proclaiming why “this year is different,” and that he’s never felt this way before.
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:57 AM   #294
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This thread is a win-win for zerovoltz. He hopes Mahomes is a generational talent. He will bump this thread for years. He will become a resident KC troll that always says “I told you so.”

If Mahomes flames out, he will go away and come back next offseason with a new username proclaiming why “this year is different,” and that he’s never felt this way before.
True, but you forgot one thing.

He will know this...you can't hide from yourself man!
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Old 05-09-2018, 09:59 AM   #295
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I just want to know how one is raised in Missouri and decides to stay there, let alone feeling pride about its sports teams.
You become a St. Louis Cardinals fan of course.
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Old 05-09-2018, 10:02 AM   #296
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in b4 Mahomes has a 18/30 TD/INT ratio this year and the Chiefs go pick up yet another 49ers re-tread QB in 3 years.
They will counter with PFM's rookie year since both are generational talents.
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Old 05-09-2018, 10:21 AM   #297
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At the end of the day, the OP might be right, there was a DEN/KC QB situation reversal.

The Broncos are the 2013 Chiefs, adding a veteran QB to stabilize the offense and compete in the division.

The Chiefs are the 2007 Broncos, getting rid of their Jake Plummer to play their shiny new toy with a big arm that has not proven anything, entering a rebuilding mode.

Good job, OP.
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Old 05-09-2018, 10:22 AM   #298
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Elway needs to go to AA.

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The QB vs defense debate is getting tiresome. Usually you need both, or at least you need what you have playing at their very best when it matters most. That’s how Super Bowls are won. KC’s biggest problem has been that neither their QB’s or defenses ever seem to play better in the playoffs. It’s always the opposite in fact.

Last edited by Agamemnon; 05-09-2018 at 10:25 AM..
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Old 05-09-2018, 10:25 AM   #299
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These are some great points....I tend to think that soneone like Elway was going to emerge as a great player no matter where he ended up. Manning...probalby Rodgers...but I'd like to think Brady was in a great situation, and he is great, but like it was said..Jeff Fisher would have never played the guy...and if he did...Fisher ran some very unimanginative offenses....a healthy Chad Pennington probalby could have been somewhat close to a Brady if he were in New England...we'll never know.....but landing in a good place helps....and hey!....that leads me another point in my favor!

Andy Ried sure seems to be a good spot to land if you are a QB. He got Alex Smith to be a NFL passing leader...he got Michael Vicks best production out of him...Foles, A J Feely.....Ried is alergic to clocks and he gets too cute sometimes with play calls, but you can do a lot worse as a QB than ending up with Ried as your coach. ......Mahomes is in great hands...
Sure, if he wants respectable stats and zero contention. Great place to be right now.
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Old 05-09-2018, 10:35 AM   #300
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The QB vs defense debate is getting tiresome. Usually you need both.
This. And if you ever want sustained success, having both is a necessity. Which is why I dislike Keenum. I don't want to be an anomaly trying to beat the underdog narrative every year like Jacksonville and KC. I want a decade of playoff visits and a QB who can carry a team when the defense has a bad day.
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