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Old 04-02-2018, 06:37 AM   #2251
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Dixon had a good rookie season. Special teams was a complete disaster last year.
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Old 04-02-2018, 07:11 AM   #2252
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Dixon had a good rookie season. Special teams was a complete disaster last year.
Honestly, punter is one position you should always go with on the cheap. Consider this:

Dixon's net punting average (I consider gross average irrelevant) was 40.2 yards, 22nd in the league. King's net average was 42.7 yards, good for third in the league. In other words, the difference between 22nd and 3rd in net punting average was 2.5 yards per kick. Not terribly significant. Dixon was ranked low in placing kicks inside the 20, but that can be function of an offense leaving you with a long field (i.e. less opportunities to pin a team back). So even though Dixon performed below average last season, the difference in his performance and the top performers is too marginal to go from his 7th round contract to several times the amount. Our ST woes had more to do with leaky coverage units and poor returning than it did with the punter. Plus, it's not like Dixon couldn't improve entering his third season. Bring in an undrafted free agent punter to compete and leave it at that.
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Old 04-02-2018, 07:44 AM   #2253
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Originally Posted by BroncoInferno View Post
Honestly, punter is one position you should always go with on the cheap. Consider this:

Dixon's net punting average (I consider gross average irrelevant) was 40.2 yards, 22nd in the league. King's net average was 42.7 yards, good for third in the league. In other words, the difference between 22nd and 3rd in net punting average was 2.5 yards per kick. Not terribly significant. Dixon was ranked low in placing kicks inside the 20, but that can be function of an offense leaving you with a long field (i.e. less opportunities to pin a team back). So even though Dixon performed below average last season, the difference in his performance and the top performers is too marginal to go from his 7th round contract to several times the amount. Our ST woes had more to do with leaky coverage units and poor returning than it did with the punter. Plus, it's not like Dixon couldn't improve entering his third season. Bring in an undrafted free agent punter to compete and leave it at that.

Nice post: well written and you used stats to back up your reasoning leading to your conclusion. All done without calling someone a retard, moron, idiot, etc. I find this wonderfully refreshing. Perfect way to start out Monday morning.
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Old 04-02-2018, 07:49 AM   #2254
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Originally Posted by BroncoInferno View Post
Honestly, punter is one position you should always go with on the cheap. Consider this:

Dixon's net punting average (I consider gross average irrelevant) was 40.2 yards, 22nd in the league. King's net average was 42.7 yards, good for third in the league. In other words, the difference between 22nd and 3rd in net punting average was 2.5 yards per kick. Not terribly significant. Dixon was ranked low in placing kicks inside the 20, but that can be function of an offense leaving you with a long field (i.e. less opportunities to pin a team back). So even though Dixon performed below average last season, the difference in his performance and the top performers is too marginal to go from his 7th round contract to several times the amount. Our ST woes had more to do with leaky coverage units and poor returning than it did with the punter. Plus, it's not like Dixon couldn't improve entering his third season. Bring in an undrafted free agent punter to compete and leave it at that.
You might want to do yourself a favor and look at King's stats playing in Denver.
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Old 04-02-2018, 07:52 AM   #2255
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Originally Posted by BroncoInferno View Post
Honestly, punter is one position you should always go with on the cheap. Consider this:

Dixon's net punting average (I consider gross average irrelevant) was 40.2 yards, 22nd in the league. King's net average was 42.7 yards, good for third in the league. In other words, the difference between 22nd and 3rd in net punting average was 2.5 yards per kick. Not terribly significant. Dixon was ranked low in placing kicks inside the 20, but that can be function of an offense leaving you with a long field (i.e. less opportunities to pin a team back). So even though Dixon performed below average last season, the difference in his performance and the top performers is too marginal to go from his 7th round contract to several times the amount. Our ST woes had more to do with leaky coverage units and poor returning than it did with the punter. Plus, it's not like Dixon couldn't improve entering his third season. Bring in an undrafted free agent punter to compete and leave it at that.
Dixon's leg is too weak though, he plays 8 games in Denver and every punter out does him in games at Mile High.
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:00 AM   #2256
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Nice post: well written and you used stats to back up your reasoning leading to your conclusion. All done without calling someone a retard, moron, idiot, etc. I find this wonderfully refreshing. Perfect way to start out Monday morning.
What do you know? Jerk.
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:02 AM   #2257
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Nice post: well written and you used stats to back up your reasoning leading to your conclusion. All done without calling someone a retard, moron, idiot, etc. I find this wonderfully refreshing. Perfect way to start out Monday morning.
Not exactly. The two main points of his argument were:

1. The difference between Dixon's net and King's net were insignificant, and
2. One key reason that Dixon wasn't good at pinning teams inside their 20 was due to the offense leaving him with long fields.

Neither of these claims are backed up by statistics.

1. Do we know how much (in terms of wins, or other analytic value) an extra 2.5 yards per punt is worth? What about a game in which he punts 4 or 5 times? That's 20-25 yards of field position. Statistically, it's definitely significant. But we can't make the claim that it's not significant value-wise until we know the other statistics involved.

2. I watched the games too, and I have a hunch that this may be true. But without seeing just how bad we were at this in raw data, we could be giving Dixon more credit than he is due. Ever since our offense started to suck, we have been casually using this excuse for our defense, and now our special teams. I'm not saying the poster is wrong, i'm just saying that he hasn't supported his theory (contrary to your claim).
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:10 AM   #2258
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Dixon's leg is too weak though, he plays 8 games in Denver and every punter out does him in games at Mile High.



Broncos should never have a kicking problem when 8 games are in thin air. Visiting kickers have all pro games in that stadium.
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:11 AM   #2259
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Not exactly. The two main points of his argument were:

1. The difference between Dixon's net and King's net were insignificant, and
2. One key reason that Dixon wasn't good at pinning teams inside their 20 was due to the offense leaving him with long fields.

Neither of these claims are backed up by statistics.

1. Do we know how much (in terms of wins, or other analytic value) an extra 2.5 yards per punt is worth? What about a game in which he punts 4 or 5 times? That's 20-25 yards of field position. Statistically, it's definitely significant. But we can't make the claim that it's not significant value-wise until we know the other statistics involved.

2. I watched the games too, and I have a hunch that this may be true. But without seeing just how bad we were at this in raw data, we could be giving Dixon more credit than he is due. Ever since our offense started to suck, we have been casually using this excuse for our defense, and now our special teams. I'm not saying the poster is wrong, i'm just saying that he hasn't supported his theory (contrary to your claim).



I’d like to see the stat for this. Cause I remember plenty of drives that stalled near midfield.
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:20 AM   #2260
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You might want to do yourself a favor and look at King's stats playing in Denver.


Kong’s last 2 games in Denver 6 punts avg 51 with 2 inside 20. and 8 punts 56.5 with 5 inside 20.

Dixon in the same games 5 punts 45.2 with 3 inside 20. 5 punts 44.8 with 1 inside 20.

Last edited by Drunken.Broncoholic2; 04-02-2018 at 08:23 AM..
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:23 AM   #2261
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Not exactly. The two main points of his argument were:

1. The difference between Dixon's net and King's net were insignificant, and
2. One key reason that Dixon wasn't good at pinning teams inside their 20 was due to the offense leaving him with long fields.

Neither of these claims are backed up by statistics.

1. Do we know how much (in terms of wins, or other analytic value) an extra 2.5 yards per punt is worth? What about a game in which he punts 4 or 5 times? That's 20-25 yards of field position. Statistically, it's definitely significant. But we can't make the claim that it's not significant value-wise until we know the other statistics involved.

2. I watched the games too, and I have a hunch that this may be true. But without seeing just how bad we were at this in raw data, we could be giving Dixon more credit than he is due. Ever since our offense started to suck, we have been casually using this excuse for our defense, and now our special teams. I'm not saying the poster is wrong, i'm just saying that he hasn't supported his theory (contrary to your claim).
I'm not claiming that King is not better. I'm claiming that the differences are not substantial enough to pay King $2.5 million (his 2017 salary) rather than pay Dixon $630,000 (what he is scheduled to make in 2018). Is King's production so much better than Dixon's (especially when factoring in positional value) as to warrant paying him 4x the salary? I don't believe it is. Now, if King becomes available for, say, $1 million, then that's a different discussion. I'm assuming he'll cost more than that.
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:23 AM   #2262
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Kong’s last 2 games in Denver avg 51 with 2 inside 20. and 56.5 with 5 inside 20.
That's just sexy.
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:24 AM   #2263
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Broncos should never have a kicking problem when 8 games are in thin air. Visiting kickers have all pro games in that stadium.
Exactly. And the guys who stands out in my memory as dominant kickers here are Lechler and King
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:24 AM   #2264
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Kong’s last 2 games in Denver 6 punts avg 51 with 2 inside 20. and 8 punts 56.5 with 5 inside 20.

Dixon in the same games 5 punts 45.2 with 3 inside 20. 5 punts 44.8 with 1 inside 20.
The sample size is way too small to assume that King's numbers over a full season would approach that.

But if you think the possibility is worth 4x the money we are paying Dixon, then so be it. Punting has become so specialized that the distinction between a guy at the top and a guy who's average or a little below average is like the difference between first and third in the luge.

Last edited by BroncoInferno; 04-02-2018 at 08:26 AM..
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:26 AM   #2265
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I'm not claiming that King is not better. I'm claiming that the differences are not substantial enough to pay King $2.5 million (his 2017 salary) rather than pay Dixon $630,000 (what he is scheduled to make in 2018). Is King's production so much better than Dixon's (especially when factoring in positional value) as to warrant paying him 4x the salary? I don't believe it is. Now, if King becomes available for, say, $1 million, then that's a different discussion. I'm assuming he'll cost more than that.


King in Denver was better than Dixon. That’s 8 games he would avg 50 or more. That’s a big difference.

But I understand your salary angle. I don’t like Kings personality. Dude is a clown who locks up yellow flags and throws them, as a punter. I could see impact players doing that, but you’re a punter. Know your role.
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:27 AM   #2266
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The sample size is way too small to assume that King's numbers over a full season would approach that.

But if you think the possibility is worth 4x the money we are paying Dixon, then so be it. Punting has become so specialized that the distinction between a guy at the top and a guy who's average or a little below average is like the difference between first and third in the luge.


For me it would be safe to say he adds 3-4 or so yards to his avg in thin air for 8 games.
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:29 AM   #2267
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For me it would be safe to say he adds 3-4 or so yards to his avg in thin air for 8 games.
Even if you're right, how much above $630,000 would you pay for a guy (on average) putting the ball on the 23 yard line instead of the 26?
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:32 AM   #2268
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Even if you're right, how much above $630,000 would you pay for a guy (on average) putting the ball on the 23 yard line instead of the 26?


I wouldn’t. Cause I think King is a clown and draws penalties. Although the punter position for this team is more important than others cause of so many failed drives. But Dixon will be OK as long as he continues to improve.

I say keep Dixon and bring in some UDFA for competition. They already signed another kicker to compete with McManus
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:33 AM   #2269
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I wouldn’t. Cause I think King is a clown and draws penalties. Although the punter position for this team is more important than others cause of so many failed drives. But Dixon will be OK as long as he continues to improve.

I say keep Dixon and bring in some UDFA for competition. They already signed another kicker to compete with McManus
Agree 100%.
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:38 AM   #2270
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I wouldn’t. Cause I think King is a clown and draws penalties. Although the punter position for this team is more important than others cause of so many failed drives. But Dixon will be OK as long as he continues to improve.

I say keep Dixon and bring in some UDFA for competition. They already signed another kicker to compete with McManus
A kicker who converted field goals at a rate of 66.1% in college and has never attempted a kick in the pros? I'm not sure how much competition he is as much as a camp leg.
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