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Old 11-20-2018, 01:13 PM   #51
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All this hoo-ha, and they barely beat us twice.

Perspective please.

Mahomes is the real deal, surrounded by tons of talent in offensive skill positions. However, the KC defense is extremely vulnerable, as well as their offensive tackles in pass pro. They can be beat by any decently balanced team (just like any team in the NFL can).

We don't need to focus on KC, just focused on finding our own rhythm. We absolutely do need some competent stability at QB, and we'll have to see what shakes out this offseason. I think our changes need to start with a new coach, another good draft, and some good FA signings. We can be right back in this thing.
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Old 11-20-2018, 01:15 PM   #52
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Old 11-20-2018, 01:16 PM   #53
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I hate to even be typing this but Denver has put themselves behind the 8-ball and they will need 2 more drafts like the last one just to stay competitive. The question I have is the front office insightful enough to pull it off? They better be.

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Old 11-20-2018, 02:17 PM   #54
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Just don't agree.

https://www.milehighreport.com/2018/...be-competitive

No team has won a Super Bowl over the last decade paying their QB more than 12.2% of their cap.

Even if the cap's $200 mil by then, there's no chance they're resigning Mahomes at anything resembling $24 mil per.
That's a false equivalency and if you look behind the numbers its not true. In 2015 the cap was 143m we paid Manning 16m base and 4m incentives so 20m in total and that is about 14% of the cap. Manning's cap number for 2015 was 17.5m but 2.5m was put on the 2016 cap so it was more than 12.2% we just moved 2.5m to 2016s accounts.

Drew Brees makes 25m this season with the salary cap at 177m about 14% of the cap. The Saints have great depth all over the team and they wont win the superbowl because he is earning over 12.2% of the cap. Its nonsense it will be because they got beat on the field. If you have a franchise QB and pay him accordingly it doesnt stop you from competing for a Superbowl. Draft well and be sensible in free agency and you can win a championship paying a QB 25m plus a year.
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Old 11-20-2018, 03:35 PM   #55
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KC is a really good team. It sucks to admit it but it's true.

however, they have a window:
Hunts contract is up after 2020.
Hill's contract is up after 2019
Mahomes contract is up after 2020.

Those three account for 76% of all of KC's offensive production. Can they re-sign all three? Maybe they can, but the rest of the team will suffer. I find it hard to believe that all three will be a threat for the next 15 years. KC is really fortunate to have three very good players, all on a rookie contract for 2018-2019. This is their window.

Besides that - has everyone forgotten what KC looked like in 2003-2004? Seriosuly - look at these teams and tell me they aren;t the same. #1 scoring offense, #28/29 scoring defense. Kareem Hunt vs Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson. Tyreek Hill vs Dante Hall. Trent Green vs Mahomes. both teams had coaches who first made a name for themselves losing SB's in Philly Tony Gonzalez vs Travis Kelce.(Dick Vermeil vs Andy Reid). Both the 2003 and 2018 team were 9-1 at one point.

clearly, there are some differences - Mahomes is better than Green ever was, but Holmes/Johnson and that OL were better than Hunt. Tyreek is much more of an offensive threat than Hall.

I'm just saying - i feels like I've seen this movie before. It ended with a 38-31 loss at home to the Colts last time in the playoffs - a game where the Colts scored on every single meaningful possession. Defense was the achilles heel for that team, I don't see the 2018 Chiefs defense being any better.
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Old 11-20-2018, 03:42 PM   #56
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That's a false equivalency and if you look behind the numbers its not true. In 2015 the cap was 143m we paid Manning 16m base and 4m incentives so 20m in total and that is about 14% of the cap. Manning's cap number for 2015 was 17.5m but 2.5m was put on the 2016 cap so it was more than 12.2% we just moved 2.5m to 2016s accounts.
The cash maneuvers don't really matter. Cap impact matters. Was that cap available to keep other players? Yes it was. How it was financed is irrelevant.

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Drew Brees makes 25m this season with the salary cap at 177m about 14% of the cap. The Saints have great depth all over the team and they wont win the superbowl because he is earning over 12.2% of the cap. Its nonsense it will be because they got beat on the field. If you have a franchise QB and pay him accordingly it doesnt stop you from competing for a Superbowl. Draft well and be sensible in free agency and you can win a championship paying a QB 25m plus a year.
Nobody's saying 12.2% is a magical number. But I've posted other analysis in the past that makes clear that QB pay does not correlate to championships. Which is counter-intuitive if you believe that great QBs are paid better and that pay has no (significant) negative side-effect.

There's a reason you see breakout teams do well with a bunch of hot draft picks on low salaries and then struggle to keep it rolling.

Also $25 mil plus is also an arbitrary number. Mahomes and others can and will command far more in a couple years. It'll be well over $30 without much question.
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Old 11-20-2018, 04:23 PM   #57
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Hitting big on a couple of drafts REALLY helps the cap more than anything else I would think. Which is why the Saints are okay with Brees' cap number for the next couple of years.

Which is why we were able to win in 2015, Von still on his rookie deal, Harris just sign the year before, but cap hit was only $3m, Trev, Malik, Roby and Wolfe on rookie deals, Marshall on vet min. Stew under $2m, etc
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Old 11-20-2018, 06:05 PM   #58
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That's not even an argument. He did the math. It's not made up.

It has absolutely nothing to do with MHR's credibility.

Paying elite QB's elite QB money doesn't appear to do much for their title chances.
It's a cherry picked number. Notice they didn't include backup QB money too. To suggest to not pay for good QB play is obsurd.

How you end up a ****ty team is overpay for backup QBs like Denver and Jacksonville and think Defense and running the ball is the surefire success for championships.
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Old 11-21-2018, 04:54 AM   #59
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I guess part of this needs clarification...

I did not mean to insinuate Denver is a bottom feeder for the next 15 years. I meant Mahomes will have to be dealt with for that long. If you have the opinion he is not a threat without who is around him...fine, your opinion. I do not share that opinion. I believe he is one of the best young QB's in the league right now and he will make the talent around him a little better, no matter who that is. Will the rest of the league catch up to him? Maybe. Guess we just have to wait and see.

...and if you think the Raiders will continue as a single digit win team forever...fine, believe it if you want. I also don't share that belief. By the time they make the move, they will have quite a bit more talent than they do now and most of it will be young talent.

I can see both of those teams on an upward swing for the future. Do you truly see that for Denver? I'm not saying Denver doesn't have talent, they do. I think the last draft they had was "A" draft. I just think they will need to continue that if they want to keep up. Free agency helps round a team out but the draft is the base of a team and they can't afford to miss like they have in the recent past.
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Old 11-21-2018, 05:43 AM   #60
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I guess part of this needs clarification...

I did not mean to insinuate Denver is a bottom feeder for the next 15 years. I meant Mahomes will have to be dealt with for that long. If you have the opinion he is not a threat without who is around him...fine, your opinion. I do not share that opinion. I believe he is one of the best young QB's in the league right now and he will make the talent around him a little better, no matter who that is. Will the rest of the league catch up to him? Maybe. Guess we just have to wait and see.

...and if you think the Raiders will continue as a single digit win team forever...fine, believe it if you want. I also don't share that belief. By the time they make the move, they will have quite a bit more talent than they do now and most of it will be young talent.

I can see both of those teams on an upward swing for the future. Do you truly see that for Denver? I'm not saying Denver doesn't have talent, they do. I think the last draft they had was "A" draft. I just think they will need to continue that if they want to keep up. Free agency helps round a team out but the draft is the base of a team and they can't afford to miss like they have in the recent past.


If If If If If......... So you mean we are actually going to have to compete... to like win and stuff..... no way.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:08 AM   #61
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If If If If If......... So you mean we are actually going to have to compete... to like win and stuff..... no way.
Not quite sure where you’re going with this. This is actually my point. To compete, Denver is going to have to draft better than recently. The Chiefs and Raiders are getting better. I guess there are some who would like to believe otherwise.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:12 AM   #62
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Not quite sure where you’re going with this. This is actually my point. To compete, Denver is going to have to draft better than recently. The Chiefs and Raiders are getting better. I guess there are some who would like to believe otherwise.
The point is, who cares? Other teams are constantly trying to get better, so is Denver. That's not new, it's not even a conversation.

It's like saying, Denver better come to play, or they'll lose because the other team is trying to win.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:24 AM   #63
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The point is, who cares? Other teams are constantly trying to get better, so is Denver. That's not new, it's not even a conversation.

It's like saying, Denver better come to play, or they'll lose because the other team is trying to win.
This
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:30 AM   #64
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...and if you think the Raiders will continue as a single digit win team forever...fine,
Just because they broke out of that for like a year doesn't mean we should forget.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:54 AM   #65
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we'll see what happens when they have to pay Mahomes. The Packers haven't been the same since they paid Rodgers big. The key is to have a QB under rookie pay play well to win a Super Bowl. The Chiefs have the offense figured out, but their defense is gonna make it so they lose in the AFCCG against the Patriots.

I remember people saying the same things about Carr and the Raiders the season they went 12-4. Carr gets hurt and they haven't been the same since. Who's to say it doesn't happen to the Chiefs either?
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:59 AM   #66
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Just because they broke out of that for like a year doesn't mean we should forget.
Hahaha....

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Old 11-21-2018, 10:04 AM   #67
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Hahaha....

Seriously. They hit double-digit wins once in the last 16 (soon to be 17) seasons.
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Old 11-21-2018, 10:21 AM   #68
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I guess part of this needs clarification...

1. I did not mean to insinuate Denver is a bottom feeder for the next 15 years. I meant Mahomes will have to be dealt with for that long. If you have the opinion he is not a threat without who is around him...fine, your opinion. I do not share that opinion. I believe he is one of the best young QB's in the league right now and he will make the talent around him a little better, no matter who that is. 2. Will the rest of the league catch up to him? Maybe. Guess we just have to wait and see.

...3. and if you think the Raiders will continue as a single digit win team forever...fine, believe it if you want. I also don't share that belief. By the time they make the move, they will have quite a bit more talent than they do now and most of it will be young talent.

I can see both of those teams on an upward swing for the future. Do you truly see that for Denver? I'm not saying Denver doesn't have talent, they do. I think the last draft they had was "A" draft. I just think they will need to continue that if they want to keep up. Free agency helps round a team out but the draft is the base of a team and4. they can't afford to miss like they have in the recent past.
1. You didnt insinuate. You pretty much said it outright. Your OP leads us to believe as readers that you think no matter what Denver does over the next 15 years, KC 1, LV2, Den and LA fighting for 3rd in the West.

2. Yes. It happens to every player.

3. 2004-2018...1 double digit winning season. If the cycle remains the same (and the current talent exodus suggests it will, because a high pick does not guarantee a player of quality. No matter how many high picks you have), the Raiders will have another winning season in 2034.

4. Only thing you said most of us can agree with is the need for a QBotF.

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Old 11-21-2018, 11:05 AM   #69
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Just because they broke out of that for like a year doesn't mean we should forget.
So much this. Chargers with Rivers, KC with Mahomes are both to be reckoned with, but not so much raiders.

I remember being worried that the raiders had the #2 pick years ago. And then they took Robert Gallery. He was a can't miss OT that was going to anchor the position for 15 years. I was worried that the raiders were going to be back on top soon. That one aforementioned winning season 17 years later doesn't have me shaking in my boots.
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Old 11-21-2018, 11:22 AM   #70
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So much this. Chargers with Rivers, KC with Mahomes are both to be reckoned with, but not so much raiders.

I remember being worried that the raiders had the #2 pick years ago. And then they took Robert Gallery. He was a can't miss OT that was going to anchor the position for 15 years. I was worried that the raiders were going to be back on top soon. That one aforementioned winning season 17 years later doesn't have me shaking in my boots.
And we're not just talking about a down year after some success a couple years ago. The core from that "future of the Raiders" peak 2 years ago has already been completely dismantled. They're starting all over again, again.

Thinking of that as some kind of existential threat is to ignore two decades of this same ****. It's POSSIBLE they turn it into something someday. But anything is possible.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:07 PM   #71
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And we're not just talking about a down year after some success a couple years ago. The core from that "future of the Raiders" peak 2 years ago has already been completely dismantled. They're starting all over again, again.

Thinking of that as some kind of existential threat is to ignore two decades of this same ****. It's POSSIBLE they turn it into something someday. But anything is possible.
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:44 PM   #72
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Competition in the AFC West is a good thing. With how bad the Chiefs and Raiders have been since color television was invented, the rivalry has been diminished. Like in the AFC East with the rise of the cheating Pats.

Give Denver your best shot KC. I don't call that a 'slap in the face'. I call that a challenge to face and overcome. It is like some of you don't want to play a game of chess unless the opponent is down a queen, rook and bishop. Hopefully your nut sack drops.
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