|03-22-2005, 11:59 PM||#1|
Draft Defense Early&Often
Join Date: Oct 2004
Experts predictions in 2004
I thought this was pretty amusing
Bad Predictions Bonus! Bad Season-Long Predictions
USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt went 0-256 in his quixotic attempt to predict an exact NFL final score. ESPN's Chris Mortensen and Merrill Hoge were right just 61 percent of the time picking regular-season games straight up, the network's Joe Theismann right just 60 percent of the time, the network's Mark Schlereth right just 59 percent of the time. Considering the home team won 57 percent of games in the 2004 regular season, if you simply picked the home team in every game, you would have compiled 57 percent accuracy as a forecaster. These gentlemen did only slightly better. (Note: The picks here are straight-up, the only kind TMQ tracks. The spread is meaningless to football purists, of use only to gamblers; and as I've noted before, my compromise with my Baptist upbringing is to be pro-topless but anti-gambling.)
Then there's the incredible Harmon Forecast. Harmon says it relies on "a mathematical formula that pick(s) winners correctly between 72 and 78 percent of the time, most seasons getting almost 75 percent right. Jim Harmon and his staff are the only forecasters who predict exact scores and chart every college and pro team." A man and his staff who do nothing but predict exact final scores? Only in America!
Once, Harmon tabulated its results. Then, for the 2001 season, Harmon forecast the winner only 63 percent of the time. (Again, the topic here is straight-up picks.) The service's response was to stop publishing its own performance. Now Harmon still claims to be right "between 72 and 78 percent of the time," but readers have no idea, since the Forecast does not tally results and does not archive previous forecasts, making it impossible to go back and count up. The only way you can know how Harmon Forecast predictions fared is if you copy them all down, which TMQ does. For 2004, Harmon was correct a mere 62 percent of the time, barely beating what you could have done simply by picking the home team in every game.