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Old 04-10-2014, 02:16 PM   #126
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It wasn't you, just the post I was originally responding to.

I would agree with you regarding the Lacys receiving skills but I'm not buying into him being that much fresher. One of the common things you'll hear from rookies about the transition to the NFL is how much longer the season is and how they tend to where down sooner than vets. I tend to think they would negate each other somewhat towards the end of the year.

There's no way to know how Ball would have done in the same situation but at least this year we should have a better comparison because they will both get a lot of carries.
Ball didn't get many carries till late in the year. There wouldn't be any reason for him to be up against the rookie wall like typical rookies.
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Old 04-10-2014, 02:23 PM   #127
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Ball didn't get many carries till late in the year. There wouldn't be any reason for him to be up against the rookie wall like typical rookies.
He looked like he had great vision but I just did not see the BURST for any of our back. They all seem to be missing second gear. CJ is not the answer though. He's a thug and I'm pretty sure I read an article earlier this year were he pretty much said that we suck. Not in those words but that's what he meant.
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Old 04-10-2014, 02:26 PM   #128
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Ball didn't get many carries till late in the year. There wouldn't be any reason for him to be up against the rookie wall like typical rookies.
I hear ya but he's still got the grind of everything being more intense and aquite a bit longer. The funny thing is that when you look at all his games he was most productive in games where he got double digit carries. It begs the question what he's capable of when given more opportunities.

Ball and Lacy are certainly different kinds of running backs but I think they are pretty similar prospects.

He started to get more passes thrown his way starting week 10 as well.

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Old 04-10-2014, 05:23 PM   #129
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He looked like he had great vision but I just did not see the BURST for any of our back. They all seem to be missing second gear. CJ is not the answer though. He's a thug and I'm pretty sure I read an article earlier this year were he pretty much said that we suck. Not in those words but that's what he meant.
That's a good point. Balls top speed isn't the fastest (neither is Moreno)... Hillman has a 2nd gear but he never really got an opportunity to show it. And his fumbling issues.

Cj Anderson is still to be determined...
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Old 04-10-2014, 05:24 PM   #130
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He looked like he had great vision but I just did not see the BURST for any of our back. They all seem to be missing second gear. CJ is not the answer though. He's a thug and I'm pretty sure I read an article earlier this year were he pretty much said that we suck. Not in those words but that's what he meant.
Where do you make this **** up from?
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Old 04-11-2014, 09:08 AM   #131
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Some detailed RB analysis from last season. Notable that Moreno and Ball were big benefactors of nickel, dime, or quarter defenses.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...rds-per-carry/

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I made Moreno the poster boy for this piece and this is where we’re able to discuss him at length. During his breakout campaign, Moreno did, in fact, have the great benefit of facing a ton of Nickel and Dime defenses. He can, of course, thank Peyton Manning for that. Moreno put up a YPC that was 0.3 yards below expected. He was decent on 45 carries (16 percent of his total) against Base, racking up 4.5 YPC. Moreno was worse against Nickel, however, managing 4.3 YPC on 186 carries (66 percent). More troubling was Moreno’s work against Dime. He had the luxury of a league-high 49 carries (17 percent), but managed only 3.9 YPC.

The favorite to replace Moreno has Denver’s lead back, Montee Ball also shows up in the Top 5. Ball was a bit more effective than Moreno on a per-play basis, but his ugly 3.3 YPC against Base defenses is troubling. He put up a 4.5 YPC against Nickel and had a healthy 6.8 mark against Dime.
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Old 04-11-2014, 09:12 AM   #132
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Some detailed RB analysis from last season. Notable that Moreno and Ball were big benefactors of nickel, dime, or quarter defenses.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...rds-per-carry/
Thats entirely tl;dr, but whats the sample size for Montee's runs against a more traditional defense, at what point in the game did it happen, at what point in the season did the majority of those runs occur, and how did all the broncos backs fair in those situations.
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Old 04-11-2014, 09:27 AM   #133
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...whats the sample size for Montee's runs...
The sample size is shown. 148 total carries, 26% (which would be 38) of those against base. No stats are perfect, and they don't tell you everything. But, they also don't tell you nothing. His YPC was really good against nickel and dime, which he got to see a lot of, and not so good against base. I don't necessarily "blame" this on Ball. But it jives with something I heard Stink say in an interview before the Super Bowl. He said that although the Broncos were a "good" running team and had good running numbers, they couldn't run the ball well enough when the had to. Numbers such as these seem to support that opinion. You can be effective running the ball when you spread the defense out, but when you have to run and the defense knows it that's where you have to prove that you can get it done. It's not a strength of this style of offense.
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Old 04-11-2014, 09:44 AM   #134
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The sample size is shown. 148 total carries, 26% (which would be 38) of those against base. No stats are perfect, and they don't tell you everything. But, they also don't tell you nothing. His YPC was really good against nickel and dime, which he got to see a lot of, and not so good against base. I don't necessarily "blame" this on Ball. But it jives with something I heard Stink say in an interview before the Super Bowl. He said that although the Broncos were a "good" running team and had good running numbers, they couldn't run the ball well enough when the had to. Numbers such as these seem to support that opinion. You can be effective running the ball when you spread the defense out, but when you have to run and the defense knows it that's where you have to prove that you can get it done. It's not a strength of this style of offense.
38 is a tiny sample size, and how many of those 38 came at the end of the game when Denver's trying to burn clock. I'm not saying Montee Ball is some great runner against 8 man fronts, im just saying that's not enough to draw any real conclusion.

I agree its not the strength of the offense, but as long as Peyton is there, the reality is that they'll never have to see 8 man fronts.
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Old 04-11-2014, 10:04 AM   #135
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Some detailed RB analysis from last season. Notable that Moreno and Ball were big benefactors of nickel, dime, or quarter defenses.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...rds-per-carry/
Nice find, thanks for sharing it
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