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Old 02-25-2014, 07:45 AM   #1
Mat'hir Uth Gan
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Default 2014 Orange Mane Mock Draft Scoring Rules

2014 ORANGE MANE MOCK DRAFT SCORING COMPONENTS

Total Franchise Value (TFV) consists of:

1. Real NFL Draft Slot Accuracy
2. Inherent Selection Value
3. Raw(Actual) Selection Value
4. Real NFL Team Draft and Position Selections
5. Free Agency Value



1. REAL NFL DRAFT SLOT ACCURACY

Overview:

Each selection is compared to the real NFL draft results to see where the player's true draft value was. Accuracy Parameters help measure the accuracy of the drafting owner's selection compared to the real NFL draft selection of that player by requiring his value fall within a certain arbitrary boundary. If the selection falls within that boundary, the owner gets his draft position's inherent value. If the player is taken ahead of that spot in the NFL draft, than the owner gets the inherent value plus one point per draft position ahead of where the owner drafted the player. So, the boundary really only limits how far an owner is allowed to *reach* for a player before losing his Inherent Selection Value.

2014 Changes:

I'm changing Accuracy Parameters to round based instead of selection based for streamlining purposes and ease of understanding. Basically, I've simplified it and continued my intent to make higher selections more valuable. Everyone wants to trade down, smart players may want to trade up. It depends. Either option can be successful and create more value for your team. Just depends on your draft acumen and degree of risk tolerance. My goal is to make both approaches viable, but for the higher selections to be easier to "hit on". This is modeled after real life.

Accuracy Parameters for each round are the following:

1st Round - 10 Slots. Increased between 0 and 5 slots from last year. Barring a terrible reach, this should almost ensure that owners get the Inherent Values for these most valuable selections.

2nd Round - 15 Slots. Increased between 5 and 10 slots from last year. I wanted these easier to hit on to increase their value.

3rd Round - 20 Slots. Early 3rd Round increased by 10 slots, while Mid-Late 3rd Round selections increased by 5 slots.

4th Round - 20 Slots. Increased 5 slots from last year.

5th Round - 25 Slots. Early 5th Round increased by 10 slots, while late 5th Round decreased by 5 slots.

6th Round - 30 Slots. Increased by 10 slots.

7th Round - The player just needs to be drafted. This makes it easier on early 7th round selections, but harder on later 7th round selections.


Accuracy Scoring:

Each individual selection is checked and marked red if it fails to be an accurate value. These red selections are not counted in the number tally for the Inherent Selection Value. The percentage of accurate selections will be tallied for a separate Top 32 ranking based solely on Draft Value Accuracy. It is not the listing of whom won the game, but it is the listing of the top GMs in terms of accurately forecasting player draft value.



2. INHERENT SELECTION VALUE

Overview:

For purposes of a game like this in which trading is a key factor, you have to maintain equal opportunity between stock piling mid/late round selections versus a limited number of earlier selections. In short, the 1st Overall selection must have some inherent value to make it just as enticing as trading back for multiple selections, or else everyone would always trade. Thus, we have Inherent Selection Value.

Inherent Selection Value Chart:

Code:
1st    1  10,    11-20,     21-32        100    85    70
2nd    33-42,     43-52,     53-64         60    50    45
3rd    65-80,     81-End                   40    35
4th    1st Half,  2nd Half                 30    25
5th                                        20
6th                                        15
7th                                        10
First, I'll fill in the exact numbers once the Compensation selections have been announced. Second, as you can see, the Inherent Selection Value begins at +100 points for a Top 10 selection while decreasing throughout the draft before ending at a static +10 points for the entire 7th Round.

Using This Chart For Trades:

This is *not* an exact trade value chart but it can be used similarly to understand potential as well as likely outcomes for a proposed trade scenario. What you really need to understand is the Inherent Value of each particular selection for the proposed trade and compare that with your confidence at being able to draft a player accurately at that draft slot(s). Risk dictates that the person trading an earlier selection should get back more value than they are giving. What % of a return that is can vary per owner, but I'm generally going to ask for around 130% at a minimum. So, if I'm giving you 100 Inherent Value at an earlier point in the draft, I will need to receive 130 Inherent Value back at a minimum to offset some risk. As the draft goes into the later rounds, or with selections that are later in the draft, that percentage becomes more flexible due to changes in risk. Again, this is just an example, each owner will have a different opinion on trade values.

Changes:

I modified the Inherent Values from last year to make the earlier draft selections, especially those early 1st round selections, more valuable. This was done by decreasing the Inherent Value of 2nd through 4th round selections considerably. I crunched a ton of numbers, and those values were far too high last year. It actually encouraged trading back far too much, even just amongst the middle rounds. The current values make trading up or trading back equally enticing depending on owner personality and selection confidence. I'm very happy with these Inherent Values in terms of trading and for general point accumulation.

Inherent Value Scoring:

As you can see, a Top 10 selection has an inherent value of +100 points. Simply selecting a player that is within the specified Accuracy Parameters nets the owner the 100 points. If you use poor draft value, and draft someone that really gets selected at pick #21 for example, you do not get the 100 points. Thus, since it is easier to predict within 10 draft slots the #1 Overall selection, it's almost a guaranteed 100 point value. As opposed to trading back for multiple early 2nd round selections, where the inherent value is 60 points, but you have to accurately draft a player within 12 selections, so that's much harder to do at that point in the draft. Generally, it's much easier to accurately draft value the earlier in the draft you are selecting.

Many owners might prefer the higher odds and minimal risk earlier selections provide. But, a cocky GM might feel comfortable trading the sure thing early selection for more later selections because if he drafts accurately on all of those picks, he has a good chance to earn more points than he would staying at #1 Overall. But there's a lot more risk, and as last season showed, those with the most picks did not always fare the best. So, by using Inherent Values, the integrity and desirability of early round selections are maintained, while the desire to just trade back and accumulate a massive amount of selections is checked.


3. RAW (ACTUAL) SELECTION VALUE

This is easy, it's simply the difference, positive or negative, for each selection between where they were drafted in the Mock Draft and where they were drafted in the real NFL draft. And then all those values are added together for a score.

This is also why Inherent values were needed as a great selection at #1 Overall that really went #1 Overall would get you zero points. You wouldn't lose any, you wouldn't gain any. But with the inherent value, now you would get 100 points and the selection has great value again.

Thus, Raw Value is really a measure of reaches and steals. Inherent Value is what rewards draft accuracy. Together I think they measure a GM's competency in the draft game.


4. REAL NFL TEAM DRAFT AND POSITION SELECTIONS

Overview:

In an attempt to encourage owners to draft more realistically, while getting to really know their individual team roster and needs, as well as rewarding that subsequent knowledge and draft application, points are going to be given for selecting the same player as their team does in real life as well as the same positions. With the recent decision to start our game after the initial week of Free Agency, the biggest roadblock to this concept is removed to a large degree.

Selecting the Same Player as In Real Life.

If you nail a player your team takes in the real draft, its going to be worth 50 bonus points. It should be easier to accurately predict a player your team might take the earlier your selection and round. Thus, a higher selection gives better odds at obtaining these bonus points than a later selection. The player does not have to be drafted in the exact same round as in the real draft, he just needs to be drafted by the same team.

Selecting the Same Position as In Real Life.

Each time you draft a position your team goes on to take in the real draft, you get 10 bonus points. This is to encourage realistic team drafting, however, there are limitations. For example, if you draft 3 CBs, but your team only drafts 2, you would get 20 points, not 30. Thus, having more selections probably gives you greater odds of drafting all the positions your team will in the real draft, though the bonus points are not enough by themselves to encourage selection hoarding.


5. FREE AGENCY VALUE

This is like extra credit after an exam. If you win a bid on a player in Free Agency and he gets drafted, you get points. For example, using the 2013 NFL Draft, since it had 254 selections, all Free Agents were assigned #255. Thus, if a Free Agent in our game was actually drafted at #200 in the NFL draft, you received 55 points added to your score (255-200 = 55). For the Free Agency round, you do not receive the 50 bonus points for selecting a player that ends up drafted or signed by your team. That's for drafting only. Free Agency already is its own bonus system. Last year, we had 29 Free Agents that actually were drafted by the NFL. That's a lot of bonus points. If you want to win this game, you'd probably better participate in the Free Agency Round next year.



EXAMPLES TO PROMOTE COMPLETE UNDERSTANDING:

EXAMPLE OF SCORING (using just one selection):

1. Team A has the 51st Selection of the draft, which is in the middle of the 2nd Round, has an Accuracy Parameter of 12 slots and an Inherent Selection Value of 50 points.

2. This example requires two scenarios, but Team A selects player X with that 51st selection in both.

In Scenario 1 (a best case scenario), Player X is selected in the real NFL draft by Team A but with the 19th Overall selection in Round 1, this results in a total of 142 points. The scoring breakdown would be as follows:

A) 50 Inherent Points since the player was not a reach of more than 12 slots.
B) 32 Value Points since the player was taken 32 slots ahead of where the owner drafted him. (52-19 = 32).
C) 50 Bonus Points for drafting a player the team drafted in real life.
D) 10 Bonus points for drafting a position the team drafted in real life.


In scenario 2, (a bad case scenario), Player X is selected in the real NFL draft by a different team at selection 100 in Round 4, while Team A also did not draft the position of the player at all. This results in a negative score of 49 points (-49). The scoring breakdown would be as follows:

A) 0 Inherent Points since the player was a reach of more than 12 slots.
B) A loss of 49 points since the player was taken 49 slots behind where the owner drafted him. (100-51 = 49).
C) No bonus points since the player was drafted by another team and at a position the owner's team did not address in the real draft.


EXAMPLE OF TRADING (Correct way to analyze a proposed trade):

So, lets walk through a potential trade scenario and the thought process that should occur, the decision to trade or not should be viable either way depending on the personalities and confidence of both owners.

Trade on the table is the #20th Overall selection for two high 2nd round selections (#34 and #36). A lot must go into considering this trade on either side.

Inherent Value comparison. The #20 selection has an inherent value of 85 points, while both high second round selections have an inherent value of 120 points (60 each). This means that in terms of inherent value only, the two 2nd round selections have the potential to be worth more. This is a 140% return. But its not remotely that simple.

Draft Accuracy. Those Inherent Values are worth squat if you whiff on your selection and fail to select a player within the selection's Accuracy Parameters. And this is why an owner might be willing to give up more Inherent Value in later selections for an earlier selection because the odds of actually receiving the Inherent Value for that earlier selection are much higher. And here, 85 points is much better than 60 or 0.

It is inherently easier to identify the best players and good draft value the higher you select in the draft. Meaning, its almost a lock to be able to select a Top 20 talent, while it is more difficult to identify the best talent value at the top of the second, and becomes more and more difficult as the draft continues into later rounds. Thus, here, the odds of obtaining your Inherent Selection Value are significantly higher for the 20th Overall selection.

Additional Points with Draft Accuracy. Any time you draft a player that goes higher in the real NFL draft, you get your Inherent Value plus one point per slot the player went earlier. Obviously, the 20th Overall selection has little room for additional points, while a high 2nd round selection does have some room for additional points if you feel confident you can select a prospect that could go in Round 1 in the real draft. This gives the high second round choice the edge when considering the potential for additional points, and the fact two such selections are involved doubles the potential. However, there is a Yin to the Yang.

Losing Points with Draft Accuracy. Any time you draft a player that goes lower in the real NFL draft at an overall selection that falls outside the draft Accuracy Parameters, you fail to obtain the Inherent Selection Value, but you also lose a point per slot the player went later. Obviously, a player you consider a Top 20 talent is not likely to fall outside the 10 slot Accuracy Parameter, and if they do, it usually wont be far. But early 2nd Round players are more difficult to identify and are more common to see slide deeper in the real draft. This gives the 20th Overall selection the edge when considering minimizing the potential to lose points, especially when considering the fact there are two 2nd round selections which doubles the potential to lose points. This is the risk each owner has to decide where to draw the line at. But, there is still more to consider.

Selecting the Same Player/Position as In Real Life. If you nail a player your team takes in the real draft, its going to be worth 50 bonus points. It should be easier to accurately predict a player your team might take the earlier your selection and round. Thus, the Top 20 selection gives better odds at obtaining these bonus points than the early 2nd round selection, even taking into consideration there are two of them. In terms of position, having more selections probably gives better odds at getting all of those positional bonus points. Though trading around might make it more difficult to draft a player your team will due to different draft position.

Putting the trade Considerations Together:

20th Overall Selection:
High probability for 85 Inherent Points
Low probability for gaining or losing additional accuracy points.
Higher odds for 50 bonus points for taking the same player your team does.
High odds for 10 bonus points for taking a position your team does.

The two Early 2nd Round Selections:
The chance for 35 more overall Inherent Points (140% value return)
Medium probability for 120 Inherent Points
Medium probability for gaining or losing accuracy points
Lower odds for 50 bonus points for taking the same player your team does.
Higher odds for 10 bonus points for taking a position your team does.


So, heres the potential thinking for both sides:

The Top 20 selection is almost a lock for 85 points, with a decent shot at bonus points. Risk is minimal (in comparison). Savvy owners will not be afraid to trade up and guarantee themselves points. Especially those that feel confident about a particular player, or those that do not feel confident about any player in the range they were picking. So, here, the owner does not feel great about the players in the early 2nd, nor his personal feel for their draft value, he knows there's a guy at #20 that is a lock to go high in the draft, so he makes the trade up for the sure thing.

The two high 2nd Round selections are attractive for a cocky owner that believes he can definitely get the 120 points for draft accuracy value. He might even believe hell be able to get some players that slipped and get additional value points. So, this owner is thinking optimistically that he can get 120+ points for moving down and that his grasp on the draft value of players in the early 2nd will minimize the risk of getting a goose egg or losing points, and justify giving up on the almost sure 85 point prospect in the mid 1st.

The Reality:

The reality is the owner trading up has likely guaranteed himself 85 points. While the reality for the owner trading back is there's a 60-80% chance for 120+ ish total points by nailing the Inherent Values along with team positional needs. On the other side, they have a 20-40% chance of missing Inherent Values completely, as well as further negative accuracy points if they do a drastic reach. Its theoretical that by trading back the owner could lose massive points. But its also theoretical he could have accumulated significant overall points as well. This is where the knowledge and risk tolerance of each individual owner comes into play.



WINNING THE GAME AND SUGGESTIONS:

The highest TFV total wins. Teams will be ranked from 1 to 32. Whether this has any impact on selection order for next year's draft game remains to be seen/voted upon. I think it should as it makes assigning teams much easier, while rewarding the owners whom drafted well.

As for suggestions, I'll offer this. Many of the teams that did well last year were the teams that either stayed put and just drafted value or teams that traded up. Trading back and stock-piling picks gives an owner the opportunity to simply outscore everyone else, but the reality has been that there are usually a couple massive reaches in all those added selections which torpedoes the overall score. If you're really good at drafting value, you can win the entire game by stock-piling. But you'd better be really good.

Oh, and if you want to win, you'd better play the Free Agent round.

Last edited by Mat'hir Uth Gan; 02-26-2014 at 09:19 AM..
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Old 02-25-2014, 07:46 AM   #2
Mat'hir Uth Gan
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GENERAL FAQ:


Q1: Obviously the first question would be who the heck is this MUG guy and why is he trying to interject his scoring system into a game that he doesn't even run?

A1: I'm an Attorney with a B.A. in Business Mgmt. I'm a smart guy that's ultra-competitive, believes in peak efficiency and transparency in all things, enjoys doing statistical analysis, loves the Broncos and the NFL draft, and is willing to put in the time and effort to improve our draft game experience while encouraging commitment, execution, research, and friendly competitive spirit amongst the team owners.



Q2: What is this mock draft scoring system MUG created from scratch?

A2: The scoring system is created from scratch and actually took immense time and thought. It should be legit on every level. The beta version of this scoring was done last year. I've detailed the changes made above, but for a simple overview, last year's scoring and game are worth a look. That can be found at this link: http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=110872

The system is unbiased and measures every aspect of draft acumen, each of which I singled out and explained. The 2014 version is also taking into account real life team needs. I see no flaws currently but am always open for discussion.



Q3: What would be the point of scoring our mock draft game?

A3: Friendly competition, fun, and encouragement/need to commit to the game and try your best. I believe having a game and actually having a winner increases the strategy and fun aspects of the game exponentially. I would expect owners would be more committed to making their selections on time, would give much greater thoughts to trade value, and would commit to the Free Agency period. I also believe this scoring would make the game much more realistic as teams draft for BPA and value higher level picks instead of massive quantities and always trading down. This is without even considering any impact on the draft assignments the following year.



Q4: What is the detriment to scoring our mock draft game? What would you say to these concerns?

A4: Some forum members could be intimidated, maybe worried they'd look dumb, and some people might simply not like the fact *I* created this.

What I would say is that the game is all in fun and while there is definitely a skill/knowledge component, it is also heavily based on luck. You could suck one year, put in the same effort level the next year, and win. Or vice versa. Real life defines you, the game does not. Play the game for fun, talk some smack, laugh at your mistakes, compliment others on their good moves, try your best and let the picks fall where they may. And, if someone simply doesn't like my persona, hopefully they can separate that from the scoring system and judge it on its own merits, which I believe are very strong.



Q5: Should the final scores matter towards the team selection the next season or in any other reward?

A5: This one is debatable for sure, but for the system to have any *real* teeth, I would lean towards "yes". The hiccup is that the playing field would not be level in the sense that certain owners always draft for a specific team. I would not want to mess with that tradition or preference. So, those hardcore owners would always get their team regardless of score. However, that probably still leaves the vast majority of the teams open, and it would be extremely simple and stress free year after year to just assign teams based on the desires starting with the most accurate drafters from the year prior. I mean, the fact it removes the headache and/or randomness of getting teams assigned is a pretty big selling point in my mind. New owners would obviously have to "pay their dues" and get assigned to whichever team(s) remain.

If the final scores are not made to matter, than it's still fun in a competitive sense to see how owners performed in any particular year.



Q6: Is the scoring slanted towards a team in any particular way, specifically amount of selections or rounds those selections are in?

A6: In terms of the amount of selections, the answer is no. Some of the highest scoring teams from last year had minimal selections while some had quite a few. Some of the lowest scoring teams had minimal selections, while some had quite a few. That alone tells me this thing grades accurately. Amount of selections has no bearing on if you can win or lose. More selections simply means more risk. But with more risk, you do have a chance for a big payoff, as it should be.

In terms of rounds, the scoring is definitely slanted towards nailing the higher round selections due to inherent selection value. This is good for the game and realism as it insures the higher selections are valuable and desired. The more higher selections you have, the easier it is to get points. The flipside is that it's very hard to get a lot of higher selections since they are more valuable (just like real life drafting). While, it is much easier to stockpile lower selections, but their inherent value is considerably less (also, just like real life).



Q7: Can owners win this game if they fail to participate in the Free Agency round?

A7: Yes, it is possible, but failure to participate will decrease your odds of winning greatly due to several reasons:

First, Free Agency is like bonus points on an exam. There is zero risk. None. You can never lose points in Free Agency. If you pick a Free Agent that happens to get drafted, you get those points added to your final tally.

Second, the fewer people that participate in Free Agency allows for those that do participate to accumulate more players, and thus, more points. Which directly makes the decision to not participate in Free Agency twice damning as not only are you foregoing risk free bonus points, but you're allowing your competitors a better chance at acquiring more for a higher score.

Third, even for those not that interested or knowledgeable about the bottom of the barrel draft prospects, it takes only a couple minutes to look at a draft site, match up a name of a prospect or two that site rated highly that we didn't draft, and just blow your budget on that one or two prospects. This gives you a shot at getting some very likely bonus points, and it prevents the other players from getting those points. This is because most of the hardcore draftnik owners will bid lower amounts on quite a few prospects they like, so they would lose on the big name prospects to someone bidding a lot.

So, see, Free Agency is super easy, and it's inherently balanced when placing hardcore draftniks versus those maybe not so hardcore.



Q8: What happens with the scoring system if MUG dies, gets banned, disappears, etc...?

A8: I've already posted everything on this site concerning the exact specifics of how to score using this system. It's crystal clear, detailed, and concise. Anyone with the desire (and time, it does take considerable time) could easily and seamlessly take over calculating the grades if I go MIA for whatever reason and the scores would not be affected.


Q9: What are the major changes for this season from last year?

A9: Many areas have been fine-tuned. Earlier selections via Accuracy Parameters have been made more valuable to mirror real life. Accuracy Parameters in general have been greatly increased to make it easier to earn Inherent Selection Value. Team needs now matter and can impact the final results as more realistic drafts for individual teams accumulate points. The Inherent Selection Value chart can operate as a trade chart guideline for helping owners get acceptable value. Everything is just more polished.


Q10: How do the Team Need bonus points system work?

A10: Pretty straightforward. If you select a player your team actually takes in the real draft, it's 50 bonus points per player. If you draft a position your team takes in the real draft, it's 10 points per position. To receive Positional Bonus Points though, the owner MUST specify the singular position they are drafting the player as when they make the selection (i.e. Offensive Guard, Outside Linebacker, Defensive End, etc...). It should be pretty clear very quickly where the NFL teams see these players primarily. Stating Interior O-line or Defensive Back is not going to be specific enough. If they play multiple positions, I'll use depth charts, practice reports, or interviews to narrow down their primary spot.



If anyone wants to chip in any other questions or concerns, I'll be happy to field them as always. I'm spent a ton of time on this, crunching

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Old 02-25-2014, 09:35 AM   #3
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results of last year using this formula?
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Old 02-25-2014, 10:00 AM   #4
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Does this formula make it advantageous for having more picks than less? For example, how could someone like Washington (who lacks picks) ever beat someone who has a couple extra ones on this scoring system. Maybe I just don't understand.
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Old 02-25-2014, 10:50 AM   #5
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results of last year using this formula?
No idea. Not re-calculating. It takes like a month.
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Old 02-25-2014, 11:00 AM   #6
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Does this formula make it advantageous for having more picks than less? For example, how could someone like Washington (who lacks picks) ever beat someone who has a couple extra ones on this scoring system. Maybe I just don't understand.
Because there is negative scoring. You lose points if you select poor value. The more selections you have, the more risk you screw up a pick or two with a massive reach and lose big points. So, it's inherently more difficult to win with the more selections you have. Plus, if you're stock piling points, you're probably loading up on Mid-late round picks, those aren't worth a ton of inherent value in the first place. And they're harder to hit on consistently.

Now, if you have a ton of selections and you nail draft value with all of them, then you've got a great shot to win but as we saw last year, that's going to be very hard.


So, for a team like Washington, which is missing it's 1st Round selection, it is definitely in a hole. They can still win if they nail value on all their picks, whether they move around or stay put, and the opportunity for massive bonus points with the Team Needs aspect and Free Agency gives them a good secondary route for winning the game.

Keep in mind, steals are the main point getters of this game. So, while Washington might not have a 1st Round pick, which has a value of 70-100 points, they could still land a guy in the 3rd round that goes in the 1st round in real life. That's going to be worth over 100 points right there and they've made up ground.

Now, if a guy that nailed the 1st round pick for 100 points grabs a guy in the 3rd that goes in the 7th, he's going to lose over 100 points. This is how a team like Cleveland or St. Louis that is sitting on two 1st round selections could lose. If they botch the middle rounds of the draft or fail to get points in Free Agency, they'll be bypassed by teams with lesser selections that hit on them all.


I think several of the top teams from last year were teams that only had 5/6 picks, but hit value on all of them.


But, the answer for being more advantageous in having more or less selections is *neither*. The winner of the game is going to be the one that mixes hitting value for Inherent points, finds steals for getting additional value points, hits on free agency, and probably gets a few team bonus points.

Last edited by Mat'hir Uth Gan; 02-25-2014 at 11:13 AM..
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Old 02-25-2014, 11:31 AM   #7
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how does taking a guy in the 3rd round who in the real draft goes in the 2nd affect the scoring. last season I had 2 of my mid 3rd rounders get picked up in the early 2nd round.
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Old 02-25-2014, 11:44 AM   #8
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What the heck do you do that you have time for this?

And thank you very much, I am excited for this year!
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Old 02-25-2014, 11:51 AM   #9
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how does taking a guy in the 3rd round who in the real draft goes in the 2nd affect the scoring. last season I had 2 of my mid 3rd rounders get picked up in the early 2nd round.
You would immediately get the Inherent Selection Value for your 3rd round selection. Than you would get +1 additional point for each draft slot that player was selected ahead of where you took him.

So, for simplicity, lets say you took a guy at #75 but he was drafted in the real draft at #50. Your Inherent Selection Value for pick #75 is 40 points. And since your guy was drafted at selection 50, you'd also get another 25 points (75-50 = 25). So, that's +65 points. If your team in real life takes that same player, it's another 50 points, or if they take that same position, it's another 10 points.

Last year, which used the same concept, you got the vast majority of your points off Le'Veon Bell and Kiko Alonso, but Nick Kasa and Keenan Allen dinged you pretty good. Still, you finished right in the middle at #15 overall with a +205 score.
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Old 02-25-2014, 11:52 AM   #10
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What the heck do you do that you have time for this?

And thank you very much, I am excited for this year!
See FAQ #1 above.
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Old 02-25-2014, 12:11 PM   #11
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See FAQ #1 above.



It all makes sense now..... an attorney............
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Old 02-25-2014, 12:16 PM   #12
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Cleveland won last year with a score of +657.

They only had 6 selections. They were:

(6) Barkevious Mingo 6 (0)
(68) EJ Manuel 16 (+52)
(104) Leon McFadden 68 (+36)
(139) Dion Sims 106 (+33)
(173) J.C. Tretter 122 (+51)
(175) Duke Williams 105 (+70)


So, the owner for the Browns had steals at every selection but Mingo, but Mingo was worth a high Inherent Value as a Top 10 pick (100 points)that proved to be accurate. Also, last year, we didn't count bonus points for picking guys your team took, but Cleveland in real life took both Mingo and McFadden, so that's another 100 points right there he would have gotten this year, plus the positional bonuses. Cleveland also got 125 points in bonuses in the Free Agent round due to nabbing FB Kyle Juszczyk who ended up being drafted 130th overall.



Meanwhile, lets look at a team like Buffalo from last year that had multiple 1st round selections:

(8) Ezekial Ansah 5 (+3)
(29) Geno Smith 39 (-10)
(71) DaRick Rogers 255 (-184)
(143) Jordan Mills 163 (-20)
(177) Joseph Fauria 255 (-78)

Buffalo received Inherent Value for nailing it's two 1st round picks, but then had a catastrophic reach in the 3rd when it took Rogers. He wasn't drafted, so that decision resulted in -184 points. Buffalo also had bad luck with Fauria at selection 177, he also went undrafted, and resulted in a loss of 78 points. This is an example of how a team with multiple 1st round picks could still lose. Buffalo finished #29th overall with a final score of -109.



And finally, lets look at a team like San Francisco whom had a ton of selections:

(31) Margus Hunt 53 (-22)
(61) David Amerson 51 (+10)
(78) Chase Thomas 255 (-177)
(93) David Quessenberry 176 (-83)
(128) Matt Scott 255 (-127)
(131) Kwame Geathers 255 (-124)
(134) Brennan Williams 89 (+45)
(137) Will Davis 93 (+43)
(199) Jasper Collins 255 (-56)
(227) Mychal Rivera 184 (+43)
(237) Damion Square 255 (-18)
(246) Michael Williams 211 (+35)
(252) Javon Harris 255 (-3)


San Francisco finished dead last with a score of -274. They had a ton of selections, and hit on a few, but there were some massive reaches on players that were never drafted. Chase Thomas, Kwame Geathers, and Matt Scott all lost massive points that really sunk the various positive selections in between. Also, missing out on the Inherent Value for the 1st round selection did not help at all as Hunt was taken 22 slots too early.




So, those are just some examples of how it can go.
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Old 02-25-2014, 12:24 PM   #13
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Lol this is beyond awesome. I am so glad you are posting here now MUG. It seems like decades ago we met. <3
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Old 02-25-2014, 12:38 PM   #14
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Lol this is beyond awesome. I am so glad you are posting here now MUG. It seems like decades ago we met. <3
At least one decade ago. Not sure if you were a different name before Broncology on 'Mania, but that's how I've always remembered you. That was back when I first started law school, maybe even before it.

But yeah, I like it here a lot.
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Old 02-25-2014, 12:56 PM   #15
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At least one decade ago. Not sure if you were a different name before Broncology on 'Mania, but that's how I've always remembered you. That was back when I first started law school, maybe even before it.

But yeah, I like it here a lot.
Yeah -- that was like 2005 or so I believe. I just had started undergraduate. Hard to believe! Good luck in this draft. Looks like I'll have to get a pulse on the Browns to have a legit shot.
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Old 02-25-2014, 01:03 PM   #16
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Yeah -- that was like 2005 or so I believe. I just had started undergraduate. Hard to believe! Good luck in this draft. Looks like I'll have to get a pulse on the Browns to have a legit shot.
Browns have no choice but to draft a QB. They should trade up.
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Old 02-25-2014, 01:13 PM   #17
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Browns have no choice but to draft a QB. They should trade up.
. . . and I thought I was greedy in regards to picks.
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Old 02-25-2014, 02:19 PM   #18
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No idea. Not re-calculating. It takes like a month.
what tables would you need for this? I'm quick on data entry and have time. I'd love to see a previous results to come up with strategies.
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Old 02-25-2014, 02:43 PM   #19
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Not only is MUG a really good draftnik, he has some good post game analysis as well.


As for this thread. It was TL; DR.

Sorry MUG, I didn't read through the whole thing. Does the formula take into account the players production in the NFL? Or is this to reward those that find value in the draft in a numbers sense of where they are taken in the real draft?
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Old 02-25-2014, 05:06 PM   #20
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what tables would you need for this? I'm quick on data entry and have time. I'd love to see a previous results to come up with strategies.
This actually probably won't take exceedingly long since two of the four components won't change (Raw Value and Free Agency). If you would be willing to use the Code Inset for Post#1 at this link:

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showpos...14&postcount=1

And figure out which teams took the same players in real life as well as add up the bonus points for teams which took the same positions, I'll work on updating the Inherent Value sheet. Just remember, 50 points for a player the team really drafted, and 10 points for a position the team really drafted. But with position, it can only be the number of times the team drafted it. So, if an owner drafted 3 CBs, but the team only took 2, that's only 20 points not 30. Just come up with "Team Needs" totals for each team to be added to the overall sum.

Anyway, if you want to do that leg work, I'll knock out the other half.
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Old 02-25-2014, 05:11 PM   #21
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Not only is MUG a really good draftnik, he has some good post game analysis as well.


As for this thread. It was TL; DR.

Sorry MUG, I didn't read through the whole thing. Does the formula take into account the players production in the NFL? Or is this to reward those that find value in the draft in a numbers sense of where they are taken in the real draft?
I don't think anybody is reading it all as I'm re-answering a lot of questions I answered in the first two posts. That's fine though, only takes a few seconds of my time, and that is a massive wall of information above.

Thanks for the compliment though champ, much appreciated!

Anyway, as per your question, this is only grading draft value. The score is calculated and final the moment the final selection of the real NFL draft is done. Folks will have to do the traditional forum bragging about drafting the best players and teams as shown by rookie production onward.
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Old 02-25-2014, 05:58 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Mat'hir Uth Gan View Post
This actually probably won't take exceedingly long since two of the four components won't change (Raw Value and Free Agency). If you would be willing to use the Code Inset for Post#1 at this link:

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showpos...14&postcount=1

And figure out which teams took the same players in real life as well as add up the bonus points for teams which took the same positions, I'll work on updating the Inherent Value sheet. Just remember, 50 points for a player the team really drafted, and 10 points for a position the team really drafted. But with position, it can only be the number of times the team drafted it. So, if an owner drafted 3 CBs, but the team only took 2, that's only 20 points not 30. Just come up with "Team Needs" totals for each team to be added to the overall sum.

Anyway, if you want to do that leg work, I'll knock out the other half.
How specific would you prefer to call "Positions" IE OG/OT/C or just OL? I know it gets complicated when we get to guys that are classified as DE/OLB or WR/RB.
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Old 02-26-2014, 04:34 AM   #23
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How specific would you prefer to call "Positions" IE OG/OT/C or just OL? I know it gets complicated when we get to guys that are classified as DE/OLB or WR/RB.
*Edit*

Conklin, I went ahead and tallied up the Team Needs. It was much easier than I anticipated. If you've already started, we can compare data. If not, I'll have the info up at some point soon. Really happy with how it turned out. Scoring system is really coming together.

All of them extremely specific. It's bonus points, so they'll be as hard to get as possible. Owners drafting for their specific team should know the different type of player it takes to play a 34 OLB versus a 34 DE for example. Same is true on the O-line, certain players are OGs, not OTs. When the owners announced the selection, hopefully, they specified the positional intent of the player. I'll make sure to add that to the rules for this year to be clear. Thanks for bringing that up Conklin!

If there is any ambiguity, just make a judgment call on what position you believe the majority saw the player as in the NFL.

I have a subscription to PFF, which details positional snaps to an extent, so if you have some players you aren't sure about where they actually played in the NFL, just shoot me a PM with all the names.

Last edited by Mat'hir Uth Gan; 02-26-2014 at 08:13 AM..
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Old 02-26-2014, 09:28 AM   #24
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*Edit*

Conklin, I went ahead and tallied up the Team Needs. It was much easier than I anticipated. If you've already started, we can compare data. If not, I'll have the info up at some point soon. Really happy with how it turned out. Scoring system is really coming together.

All of them extremely specific. It's bonus points, so they'll be as hard to get as possible. Owners drafting for their specific team should know the different type of player it takes to play a 34 OLB versus a 34 DE for example. Same is true on the O-line, certain players are OGs, not OTs. When the owners announced the selection, hopefully, they specified the positional intent of the player. I'll make sure to add that to the rules for this year to be clear. Thanks for bringing that up Conklin!

If there is any ambiguity, just make a judgment call on what position you believe the majority saw the player as in the NFL.

I have a subscription to PFF, which details positional snaps to an extent, so if you have some players you aren't sure about where they actually played in the NFL, just shoot me a PM with all the names.
I'm almost done so that'll hopefully give you a bit of feedback to compare to. Also, a minor suggestion I'd make is for specialist (K, P, and FB's) Due to the fact so few of these are chosen and only in later rounds, I'd propose a higher bonus allocation to selecting a team need here. I'm almost finished and only one team so far has drafted a specialist when their team actually did.
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Old 02-26-2014, 09:54 AM   #25
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Sounds good Conklin. Thank you! I've got the entire thing almost ready to roll out, I'll wait and see if our Team Needs values match first. There were only a handful of fuzzy areas, so I'd imagine so.

As for the specialists, I don't think they need any increased value. The fact there are so few of them with draftable grades should make it easier on the teams that clearly need them to identify and select them. If the owners aren't going after the Team Needs points, then they deserve to miss out. I know if my team clearly needs a specialist player, I'm thrilled. I can get one late and I have a good shot at the 50 point bonus due to only a handful of draftable guys at the position, if that.

I think the fact I made this grading system *after* we finished last year had an impact on how owners were drafting. They weren't trying to win, nail team needs, or identify value, (some clearly were), but most were just drafting guys they liked. And the handful of specialists with draftable grades just weren't overly sexy. I expect that to change this year. Especially since some of the top Free Agent finds were specialist players.
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