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Old 10-30-2013, 02:16 PM   #1
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Default DVOA predicts Chiefs will tank. Second worst 8-0 team in history.

Every year Football Outsiders tweaks their DVOA, and it's becoming more accurate. DVOA is a way of judging teams based on statistics. Think of ESPN's or SI's "power rankings" as your typical political pundit, and think of DVOA as Nate Silver.


Check it out:


http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvo...8-dvoa-ratings
-------------------------------------


Denver remains on top of this week's Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and the Broncos still rank as one of the top ten teams in DVOA history despite a bit of a decline in recent weeks. Seattle remains in second place, although the Seahawks' overall rating drops after last night's narrow win over St. Louis. Indianapolis is third, with Carolina a surprising fourth and Cincinnati climbing from 11th to fifth thanks to their 49-9 drubbing of the New York Jets. Chicago climbs two spots to sixth, even on a bye week, although DVOA of course doesn't take into account the effect of injuries (or McCowns) on a team's future peformance. Close behind the Bears are three other NFC contenders, the Saints, 49ers, and Packers, and...

Wait a minute. Where the hell are the 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs?

The shocking answer is tenth place. The Chiefs drop six spots this week from fourth to tenth. Although many power rankings around the Internet will still have Kansas City in first place because they are slaves to ranking teams by win-loss record, it's pretty obvious that the Chiefs are not the best team in the league right now.

The biggest issue is schedule strength. We've pointed this out a few times this year, but the Chiefs' schedule has been phenomenally easy. The Chiefs have played only one opponent this year with an above-average DVOA, the Dallas Cowboys. If we take out the opponent adjustments and look at non-adjusted VOA, the Chiefs actually rank third in the league; the difference between the two ratings is more than 10 percentage points. Each week, as the opponent adjustments in our system become stronger and stronger, the Chiefs see their DVOA rating fall a little bit more. It doesn't help that the Chiefs have been declining a bit, with their three worst games by DVOA coming in the last three weeks. The game against Cleveland comes out as their worst of the year by DVOA, another reason for their big drop this week. In fact, DVOA has Cleveland outplaying the Chiefs this week even if we remove the opponent adjustments. The Browns gained 6.5 yards per play compared to just 4.7 yards per play for Kansas City, but were hurt by third-down efficiency (just 3-for-12) and the fact that they lost their one fumble while the Chiefs recovered theirs. Without opponent adjustments, that comes out to 19.5% DVOA for the Browns and -4.6% DVOA for the Chiefs. With opponent adjustments, it comes out to 28.1% DVOA for the Browns and -23.1% DVOA for the Chiefs.

(By the way, the Chiefs aren't the only team with huge opponent adjustments this season. Denver and San Diego have also had extremely easy schedules this season. Denver's gap between DVOA and VOA is almost as big as Kansas City's, but because the Broncos have been so good, the opponent adjustments don't knock them out of first place in our ratings.)

A couple weeks ago, we looked at where Kansas City stood among the "worst" 6-0 teams of all-time. At that point, the Chiefs weren't particularly low. However, only 13 teams since 1989 have made it to 8-0, and out of those teams, the Chiefs come out near the bottom. (Yes, the one team that ranks below them ended up winning the Super Bowl, but remember that team got its best defensive player back from injury right before the playoffs.)





TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 DEN 42.9% 1 42.5% 1 7-1 37.7% 1 0.5% 18 5.6% 5
2 SEA 32.4% 2 32.2% 2 7-1 4.4% 14 -23.2% 1 4.9% 8
3 IND 26.1% 3 26.2% 3 5-2 17.1% 5 -4.4% 9 4.6% 9
4 CAR 23.5% 6 23.6% 4 4-3 12.8% 9 -9.9% 5 0.8% 14
5 CIN 22.4% 11 22.8% 5 6-2 7.5% 11 -11.0% 4 3.8% 11
6 CHI 20.9% 8 21.2% 6 4-3 17.0% 7 0.3% 17 4.2% 10
7 NO 20.5% 7 20.3% 8 6-1 17.8% 4 -2.9% 12 -0.1% 19
8 SF 20.0% 10 20.3% 7 6-2 17.1% 6 -2.1% 14 0.8% 15
9 GB 19.6% 5 19.6% 9 5-2 28.6% 2 6.1% 26 -2.8% 25
10 KC 17.6% 4 17.3% 10 8-0 -1.6% 16 -12.7% 3 6.5% 3
11 DAL 11.9% 9 12.2% 11 4-4 6.7% 12 2.1% 21 7.3% 2
12 DET 7.7% 14 7.8% 12 5-3 13.3% 8 3.8% 25 -1.8% 24
13 NE 7.2% 12 7.2% 13 6-2 -6.4% 20 -6.2% 6 7.4% 1
14 ARI 2.7% 19 3.2% 14 4-4 -14.6% 26 -17.2% 2 0.1% 18
15 SD 1.3% 13 1.2% 15 4-3 25.0% 3 22.8% 32 -1.0% 23
16 PIT -4.1% 18 -4.0% 16 2-5 -2.7% 17 0.8% 19 -0.6% 20

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
17 BUF -7.0% 17 -7.4% 17 3-5 -9.3% 21 -6.0% 7 -3.7% 27
18 ATL -7.7% 15 -8.0% 18 2-5 8.6% 10 15.6% 30 -0.7% 22
19 BAL -8.6% 23 -8.4% 19 3-4 -14.5% 25 -4.2% 10 1.7% 13
20 TEN -9.6% 21 -10.0% 21 3-4 -3.1% 18 -1.3% 15 -7.9% 29
21 CLE -9.8% 25 -9.7% 20 3-5 -11.4% 23 3.5% 23 5.1% 6
22 MIA -10.0% 22 -10.2% 22 3-4 -6.0% 19 3.3% 22 -0.7% 21
23 NYJ -11.2% 16 -11.3% 23 4-4 -22.1% 31 -5.9% 8 5.0% 7
24 PHI -12.4% 20 -12.2% 24 3-5 6.3% 13 13.5% 29 -5.2% 28
25 MIN -13.6% 27 -13.9% 25 1-6 -10.4% 22 8.9% 28 5.7% 4
26 STL -14.8% 26 -14.4% 26 3-5 -13.6% 24 3.7% 24 2.5% 12
27 TB -17.3% 24 -17.7% 27 0-7 -18.0% 30 -0.3% 16 0.5% 16
28 OAK -22.1% 28 -21.7% 28 3-4 -16.8% 28 1.8% 20 -3.4% 26
29 HOU -23.7% 30 -24.4% 30 2-5 -17.1% 29 -3.1% 11 -9.7% 30
30 WAS -24.2% 29 -24.3% 29 2-5 -0.4% 15 8.0% 27 -15.8% 32
31 NYG -25.3% 31 -24.8% 31 2-6 -16.5% 27 -2.4% 13 -11.2% 31
32 JAC -62.2% 32 -61.8% 32 0-8 -40.5% 32 22.1% 31 0.3% 17

Last edited by Blart; 10-30-2013 at 02:58 PM..
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Old 10-30-2013, 02:47 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blart View Post
Every year Football Outsiders tweaks their DVOA, and it's becoming more accurate. In the second half of the season, it's especially accurate. DVOA is a way of judging teams based on statistics. Think of ESPN's or SI's "power rankings" as your typical political pundit, and think of DVOA as Nate Silver.


Check it out:


http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvo...8-dvoa-ratings
-------------------------------------




The only teams that I believe are not better than the Chiefs on that list are Carolina and Chicago. Other than that I do think that Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay, Denver, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and New Orleans are all Better than the Chiefs.


Denver remains on top of this week's Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and the Broncos still rank as one of the top ten teams in DVOA history despite a bit of a decline in recent weeks. Seattle remains in second place, although the Seahawks' overall rating drops after last night's narrow win over St. Louis. Indianapolis is third, with Carolina a surprising fourth and Cincinnati climbing from 11th to fifth thanks to their 49-9 drubbing of the New York Jets. Chicago climbs two spots to sixth, even on a bye week, although DVOA of course doesn't take into account the effect of injuries (or McCowns) on a team's future peformance. Close behind the Bears are three other NFC contenders, the Saints, 49ers, and Packers, and...

Wait a minute. Where the hell are the 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs?

The shocking answer is tenth place. The Chiefs drop six spots this week from fourth to tenth. Although many power rankings around the Internet will still have Kansas City in first place because they are slaves to ranking teams by win-loss record, it's pretty obvious that the Chiefs are not the best team in the league right now.

The biggest issue is schedule strength. We've pointed this out a few times this year, but the Chiefs' schedule has been phenomenally easy. The Chiefs have played only one opponent this year with an above-average DVOA, the Dallas Cowboys. If we take out the opponent adjustments and look at non-adjusted VOA, the Chiefs actually rank third in the league; the difference between the two ratings is more than 10 percentage points. Each week, as the opponent adjustments in our system become stronger and stronger, the Chiefs see their DVOA rating fall a little bit more. It doesn't help that the Chiefs have been declining a bit, with their three worst games by DVOA coming in the last three weeks. The game against Cleveland comes out as their worst of the year by DVOA, another reason for their big drop this week. In fact, DVOA has Cleveland outplaying the Chiefs this week even if we remove the opponent adjustments. The Browns gained 6.5 yards per play compared to just 4.7 yards per play for Kansas City, but were hurt by third-down efficiency (just 3-for-12) and the fact that they lost their one fumble while the Chiefs recovered theirs. Without opponent adjustments, that comes out to 19.5% DVOA for the Browns and -4.6% DVOA for the Chiefs. With opponent adjustments, it comes out to 28.1% DVOA for the Browns and -23.1% DVOA for the Chiefs.

(By the way, the Chiefs aren't the only team with huge opponent adjustments this season. Denver and San Diego have also had extremely easy schedules this season. Denver's gap between DVOA and VOA is almost as big as Kansas City's, but because the Broncos have been so good, the opponent adjustments don't knock them out of first place in our ratings.)

A couple weeks ago, we looked at where Kansas City stood among the "worst" 6-0 teams of all-time. At that point, the Chiefs weren't particularly low. However, only 13 teams since 1989 have made it to 8-0, and out of those teams, the Chiefs come out near the bottom. (Yes, the one team that ranks below them ended up winning the Super Bowl, but remember that team got its best defensive player back from injury right before the playoffs.)



The only teams that I believe are not better than the Chiefs on that list are Carolina and Chicago. Other than that I do think that Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay, Denver, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, New Orleans are all Better than the Chiefs.
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Old 10-30-2013, 02:50 PM   #3
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They probably agree with you on Chicago, but can't change it.

Quote:
Chicago climbs two spots to sixth, even on a bye week, although DVOA of course doesn't take into account the effect of injuries (or McCowns) on a team's future peformance.
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Old 10-30-2013, 03:41 PM   #4
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Burke's model has KC ranked even lower: 12th.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013...gs-week-8.html
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Old 10-30-2013, 03:50 PM   #5
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All that matters to me is that we beat them twice. I want to see Clinton Portis like numbers!
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Old 10-30-2013, 04:00 PM   #6
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In b4 KCPud verbally poops his pants.
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Old 10-30-2013, 04:08 PM   #7
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I'm honestly not worried about playing the Chiefs. I think we win both games by 10+. If the Broncos execute, I really don't think there's a damn thing the Chiefs can do about it.
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Old 10-30-2013, 04:20 PM   #8
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It will be so much fun watching the Bills knock the snot out of the Chiefs this week. I can't wait.
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Old 10-30-2013, 04:21 PM   #9
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Quote:
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The only teams that I believe are not better than the Chiefs on that list are Carolina and Chicago. Other than that I do think that Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay, Denver, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, New Orleans are all Better than the Chiefs.
I think a compelling case could be made for the Panthers. Top 10 run D, top 10 pass D, and an offense capable of scoring more than 3 TD's.
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Old 10-30-2013, 04:23 PM   #10
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They are who we thought they were......lol

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Old 10-30-2013, 04:23 PM   #11
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I think a compelling case could be made for the Panthers. Top 10 run D, top 10 pass D, and an offense capable of scoring more than 3 TD's.
And the Bills beat them.
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Old 10-30-2013, 05:01 PM   #12
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Congrats, Broncos, on winning the battle of the algorithms!
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Old 10-30-2013, 05:10 PM   #13
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Congrats, Broncos, on winning the battle of the algorithms!
Or, Being right.
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Old 10-30-2013, 05:23 PM   #14
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Or, Being right.
Doesn't make us right, yet
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Old 10-30-2013, 06:29 PM   #15
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Or, Being right.
Just for fun, here are the past five years' Super Bowl teams along with their Football Outsiders rankings at the end of the season:

2008 Steelers (#4) vs. Cardinals (#21)
2009 Saints (#6) vs. Colts (#8)
2010 Packers (#4) vs. Steelers (#2)
2011 Giants (#12) vs. Patriots (#3)
2012 Ravens (#8) vs. 49ers (#4)

Have fun being "right."
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Old 10-30-2013, 06:49 PM   #16
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Just for fun, here are the past five years' Super Bowl teams along with their Football Outsiders rankings at the end of the season:

2008 Steelers (#4) vs. Cardinals (#21)
2009 Saints (#6) vs. Colts (#8)
2010 Packers (#4) vs. Steelers (#2)
2011 Giants (#12) vs. Patriots (#3)
2012 Ravens (#8) vs. 49ers (#4)

Have fun being "right."
So the chiefs are Super Bowl contenders? Really? Try converting a 3rd down first. Or maybe cut down the punts in opposing team territories(worst in the league).. Baby steps.
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Old 10-30-2013, 06:51 PM   #17
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So the chiefs are Super Bowl contenders? Really? Try converting a 3rd down first. Or maybe cut down the punts in opposing team territories. Baby steps.
Do you often make up random **** to pretend like you're winning some sort of argument that doesn't exist?
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Old 10-30-2013, 06:52 PM   #18
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Do you often make up random **** to pretend like you're winning some sort of argument that doesn't exist?
Made up? Look it up stupid. Worst in the league.
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Old 10-30-2013, 06:53 PM   #19
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Made up? Look it up stupid. Worst in the league.
Feel free to point out the post in this thread where I said anything about the Chiefs.
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Old 10-30-2013, 06:59 PM   #20
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Feel free to point out the post in this thread where I said anything about the Chiefs.
Your a chiefs fan correct? You came in here and laid down a weak post about broncos
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Old 10-30-2013, 06:59 PM   #21
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Your a chiefs fan correct? You came in here and laid down a weak post.


OK, man. Have fun fellating yourself.
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Old 10-30-2013, 07:00 PM   #22
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So the chiefs are Super Bowl contenders? Really? Try converting a 3rd down first. Or maybe cut down the punts in opposing team territories(worst in the league).. Baby steps.
Might not be too hard for Alex against the terrible Bronco pass D.
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Old 10-30-2013, 07:14 PM   #23
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Might not be too hard for Alex against the terrible Bronco pass D.
Alex has like 3 300 yard games. In his career. Don't you mean Charles?
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Old 10-30-2013, 07:19 PM   #24
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I'm honestly not worried about playing the Chiefs. I think we win both games by 10+. If the Broncos execute, I really don't think there's a damn thing the Chiefs can do about it.
I am only because we have ball security issues and that's what they thrive off of. That said I'll still be shocked if we don't sweep them.
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Old 10-30-2013, 07:28 PM   #25
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Might not be too hard for Alex against the terrible Bronco pass D.
Too bad the broncos pass D isn't as terrible as you think. I'm sure Eric fisher will be looking forward to dealing with Von Miller
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