Sam Wang (better than Nate Silver): GOP likely to lose seats in '14

[Blart]

Since espn is slow launching the new 538, I found an alternative: Sam Wang. He's not only more accurate, but has been compiling polls longer than Mr. Silver.

Here's his (very) early data on the 2014 midterms:

http://election.princeton.edu/2013/1...ouse-majority/

PPP surveyed 24 Congressional districts currently held by Republicans. They asked voters to choose between their current representative and a generic Democrat (data as PDF). Here are the margins they got, plotted against last November’s election result:

His conclusion:

If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber. I do not expect this to happen. Many things will happen in the coming 12 months, and the current crisis might be a distant memory. But at this point I do expect Democrats to pick up seats next year, an exception to the midterm rule.

And it gets worse for the GOP:

Note that in these calculations I did not even include the worst of the news for Republicans. In a followup series of questions, PPP then told respondents that their representative voted for the shutdown. At that point, the average swing moved a further 3.1% toward Democrats, and 22 out of 24 points were in the gray zone. That would be more like a 50-seat gain for Democrats – equivalent to a wave election.

Anyway, great site for those who like to get nerdy about politics:
http://election.princeton.edu/

[BroncoBeavis]

Wang also predicted a 74% likelihood you'd take the house in 2012.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/0...epresentatives

Can fail get any more epic?

[Blart]

Do you understand the concept of probability? Pointing out that there's a 50% chance that a quarter will come up heads doesn't mean "LULZ epic fail! Stupid neuroscientist ftl!" when it comes up tails.

Regardless, those early odds of 74% seem crazy high, maybe because that was right after the democratic convention.

By the way, Sam Wang's final numbers on the house showed a democratic takeover chance of just 13%:

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/1...diction-final/

Originally Posted by BBII

you'd take the house in 2012.

I'm not a democrat.

[BroncoBeavis]

Originally Posted by Blart

Do you understand the concept of probability? Pointing out that there's a 50% chance that a quarter will come up heads doesn't mean "LULZ epic fail! Stupid neuroscientist ftl!" when it comes up tails.

Predicting a 75% likelihood of a 26-seat swing, and then only 8 turn up? Sorry man, there's no way to dress up that fugly.

Regardless, those early odds of 74% seem crazy high, maybe because that was right after the democratic convention.

By the way, Sam Wang's final numbers on the house showed a democratic takeover chance of just 13%:

Yet we're much further away from the next election than that prediction was. So basically what you're saying is it's pretty useless to make these kind of predictions this far out.

[Blart]

The GOP still lost seats. It looks like the slide will continue.

At the very least, it's a good indicator of who the public is blaming for the shutdown, and who they will blame if we're thrown into another recession from a default.


GOP favorability reaches record low.

[Rohirrim]

I don't know if it matters. They've gerrymandered the country into control of the House. By popular vote, they would have lost the House in the last election, but popular vote doesn't count. I'm beginning to wonder if a parliamentary system wouldn't be more democratic; Representation based on percentage of vote.