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Old 09-20-2013, 03:16 PM   #76
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Except Christie isn't a dolt and doesn't have the baggage Romney did.
He sure does. Romney and Obama being bag left and bag right.

The only people who think Christie has a shot are Obama voters. You're going to have a hard time finding a conservative Republican who is excited about turning their vote over to another East Coast Republican. The grass roots wants nothing to do with Christie. Good luck with that!
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:17 PM   #77
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The base was trying to escape in 2012 too, and easily nominated a much weaker candidate in Romney than an extremely popular Christie. Of course, Paul is a stronger outsider candidate than you had to choose from that election too.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:21 PM   #78
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The base was trying to escape in 2012 too, and easily nominated a much weaker candidate in Romney than an extremely popular Christie. Of course, Paul is a stronger outsider candidate than you had to choose from that election too.
The base was still in flux in 2012. It no longer is. It's moving in a clear libertarian direction now, and anyone not moving with them is going to be left out in the cold, no matter how much money Karl Rove can raise for them. There are fundamental things that Christie will have a hard time speaking to - and he knows it too, which is why he's trying to attack Rand Paul now.

Mark my words - it'll come down to Paul, Cruz, and Christie, and in that equation Paul will walk away with the nomination. Cruz will end up Senate majority leader. Christie will end up golfing with Romney and Obama somewhere.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:22 PM   #79
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He sure does. Romney and Obama being bag left and bag right.

The only people who think Christie has a shot are Obama voters. You're going to have a hard time finding a conservative Republican who is excited about turning their vote over to another East Coast Republican. The grass roots wants nothing to do with Christie. Good luck with that!
Even if that were the case, and I don't think it is because I believe you're overestimating the pull of the "grass roots" (read: angry old white teapublicans), so you run Paul??

So what's the Democrat margin of victory, 10? 15? Paul has no clout, particularly up against a juggernaut like Clinton, like her or not.

Good luck with that!

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Old 09-20-2013, 03:24 PM   #80
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Senate majority leader. It's a pipe dream, TJ. As in, put down the pipe, and stop dreaming. No way the Party of No picks up 6 seats.

Not. A. Chance.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:28 PM   #81
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The base was still in flux in 2012. It no longer is. It's moving in a clear libertarian direction now, and anyone not moving with them is going to be left out in the cold, no matter how much money Karl Rove can raise for them. There are fundamental things that Christie will have a hard time speaking to - and he knows it too, which is why he's trying to attack Rand Paul now.

Mark my words - it'll come down to Paul, Cruz, and Christie, and in that equation Paul will walk away with the nomination. Cruz will end up Senate majority leader. Christie will end up golfing with Romney and Obama somewhere.
You could be right, tho Cruz is out of it. He Rubio'd himself on this issue. Paul would be good news for Hillary if she decides, that would be more lopsided than '08.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:28 PM   #82
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Senate majority leader. It's a pipe dream, TJ. As in, put down the pipe, and stop dreaming. No way the Party of No picks up 6 seats.

Not. A. Chance.
It's very possible, unfortunately.

Just to add, the seats that are up were the ones won during the 2008 sweep. So they're very weak seats in an off year election.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:33 PM   #83
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Even if that were the case, and I don't think it is because I believe you're overestimating the pull of the "grass roots" (read: angry old white teapublicans), so you run Paul??

So what's the Democrat margin of victory, 10? 15? Paul has no clout, particularly up against a juggernaut like Clinton, like her or not.

Good luck with that!

Haha... Hillary is a mess. I welcome a Paul v. Hillary matchup knowing that Paul would pull a ton of Democrat voters if they run Neocon Hillary up there. The Democrats have huge cracks in their foundation right now, and those cracks are only going to become more pronounced the longer this lame duck presidency drones on...

The democrats have never been in a weaker position in my life time. In 2016, it is very likely that the Republicans will own all three branches of government.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:34 PM   #84
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Senate majority leader. It's a pipe dream, TJ. As in, put down the pipe, and stop dreaming. No way the Party of No picks up 6 seats.

Not. A. Chance.
Are you kidding? It's a virtual certainty at this point. What is going to reverse the momentum? They've already got three of the seats pretty well locked down, and picking up the three others isn't insurmountable by any stretch of the imagination.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:37 PM   #85
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You could be right, tho Cruz is out of it. He Rubio'd himself on this issue. Paul would be good news for Hillary if she decides, that would be more lopsided than '08.
I don't see how you can say that about Cruz. What he's doing is unpopular with the democrats and with the neocon establishment. Everyone else loves what he's doing. In the media it's unpopular, of course. But out in voting base, Cruz is seen as a hero.

Cruz is a force to recon with.

Paul would beat Hillary by 5 points at least. Probably closer to 8. She's nowhere near as strong as you imagine she is. Obama has damaged her brand considerably, and it's only going to get worse.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:37 PM   #86
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Haha... Hillary is a mess. I welcome a Paul v. Hillary matchup knowing that Paul would pull a ton of Democrat voters if they run Neocon Hillary up there. The Democrats have huge cracks in their foundation right now, and those cracks are only going to become more pronounced the longer this lame duck presidency drones on...

The democrats have never been in a weaker position in my life time. In 2016, it is very likely that the Republicans will own all three branches of government.
The liberal left backs Clinton. And she'll pull in the working right-wing. I saw polls not long ago that had her up in Texas. Granted polls aren't all that relevant in 2013, but that says a lot.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:39 PM   #87
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The liberal left backs Clinton. And she'll pull in the working right-wing. I saw polls not long ago that had her up in Texas. Granted polls aren't all that relevant in 2013, but that says a lot.
I think you're imagining support where it's dropping off the fastest. Hillary is a neocon, and the liberal left is starting to recognize that. I listen to a lot of political podcasts, including on the left. Hillary is not well loved by progressives. She is seen as a center-right neocon who is preventing real progressive candidates from having a chance.

The left is going through their own "tea party" like split. They're not going to have their act together by 2016. They are now where the Republicans were in 2008. Hear me now and believe me later.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:39 PM   #88
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I don't see how you can say that about Cruz. What he's doing is unpopular with the democrats and with the neocon establishment. Everyone else loves what he's doing. In the media it's unpopular, of course. But out in voting base, Cruz is seen as a hero.

Cruz is a force to recon with.

Paul would beat Hillary by 5 points at least. Probably closer to 8. She's nowhere near as strong as you imagine she is. Obama has damaged her brand considerably, and it's only going to get worse.
He's been attacked from the right of him today. He's in a lose-lose situation. He's finished on a national level.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:40 PM   #89
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Are you kidding? It's a virtual certainty at this point. What is going to reverse the momentum? They've already got three of the seats pretty well locked down, and picking up the three others isn't insurmountable by any stretch of the imagination.
I took your side, but virtual certainty is just a wee bit of an exaggeration. It's about a coin flip.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:41 PM   #90
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I don't see that as being true because the law has not been implemented. We'll see though. I personally hope it gets trashed.
It almost all in full effect already. as of oct 1 it is running in its entirety except for like one part of it. this train has already left the station and reps will never have the votes to overcome a veto. Obama isn't going sign away one of his biggest achievements.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:41 PM   #91
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He's been attacked from the right of him today. He's in a lose-lose situation. He's finished on a national level.
Hahahaha.... I think you're doing your analysis with your feelings rather than your knowledge of conservative politics. Fair enough. When Cruz is a presidential candidate, I'll remind you that you said that he's finished on a national level. When he becomes Senate Majority Leader, I'll remind you again.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:42 PM   #92
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I think you're imagining support where it's dropping off the fastest. Hillary is a neocon, and the liberal left is starting to recognize that. I listen to a lot of political podcasts, including on the left. Hillary is not well loved by progressives. She is seen as a center-right neocon who is preventing real progressive candidates from having a chance.

The left is going through their own "tea party" like split. They're not going to have their act together by 2016. They are now where the Republicans were in 2008. Hear me now and believe me later.
I assure you, I know the liberal left. And we back Clinton almost unanimously. Kos already practically endorsed her.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:43 PM   #93
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I took your side, but virtual certainty is just a wee bit of an exaggeration. It's about a coin flip.
You're right it is a "wee" bit of an exaggeration. But currently republicans have momentum in picking up those seats. I struggle to see what would change that at this point.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:43 PM   #94
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It's very possible, unfortunately.
It's not. The Senate doesn't get gerrymandered the way the House does. The Republicans may be able to pick up the three Silver is talking about (MT, WV, SD) because the Democrats don't have very strong candidates, even though the previous Democratic Senators in these states were fairly popular. They would still need an additional 3 seats.

Landrieu in LA has done a decent job, and the Republicans don't have a strong candidate to go against her. She leads the likely candidate (Cassidy) by 10 points in most polls.

Pryor in AR is probably in the weakest position, but it's split 50/50, and Pryor has had a steady approval rating above 50. History shows us it's very difficult to beat an incumbent with an approval rating over 50.

Kay Hagan in NC is in the strongest position because NC just isn't a red state anymore. She leads all challengers in most polls by 5-10%.

They would have to win all three, or two of the three and steal one like Iowa () or Michigan (quadruple ).

Then you add in the fact that even IF they picked up six seats, they still wouldn't be able to override a veto, and there is no Republican candidate other than Christie who can take out Clinton.

A lot can change in a year, but "mark my words - Cruz Senate Majority Leader and Paul GOP candidate" is laughable, particularly if the Republicans let this shutdown happen. It was worth about 5 points for Clinton back in the 90s.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:45 PM   #95
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I assure you, I know the liberal left. And we back Clinton almost unanimously. Kos already practically endorsed her.
We'll see. I hope you guys nominate her. She'll go down again the same way she did the last time. She's the McCain of the Democrat party right now - very toxic - a paper tiger. She's the strongest the Democrats currently have to offer, and Paul will beat her by 5 points at least.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:45 PM   #96
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Hahahaha.... I think you're doing your analysis with your feelings rather than your knowledge of conservative politics. Fair enough. When Cruz is a presidential candidate, I'll remind you that you said that he's finished on a national level. When he becomes Senate Majority Leader, I'll remind you again.
Senate Majority Leader isn't a nationally picked position. I could see that, unlikely, but it's possible.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:47 PM   #97
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Hahahaha.... I think you're doing your analysis with your feelings rather than your knowledge of conservative politics. Fair enough. When Cruz is a presidential candidate, I'll remind you that you said that he's finished on a national level. When he becomes Senate Majority Leader, I'll remind you again.
What kind of field day is the media and any potential Republican candidate going to have with this when it comes to primary time?

Ted Cruz: 'We Need 100 More Like Jesse Helms' In The Senate

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3909610.html

Cruz is done.
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:51 PM   #98
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http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/liv...se-republicans

Cruz has had a very bad day
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:53 PM   #99
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Very bad day...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/cruz...utdown-debacle
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Old 09-20-2013, 03:53 PM   #100
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I think you underestimate how unpopular Obamacare is and will increasingly be as it goes into implementation over the election cycle.
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