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Old 07-30-2013, 08:53 PM   #1
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1.1 Adrian Peterson, Min

2.10 Julio Jones, Atl

3.1 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac

4.10 Chris Ivory, NYJ

5.1 Cam Newton, Car

6.10 Danny Amendola, NE

7.1 Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind

8.10 Eric Decker, Den

9.1 Le'Veon Bell, Pit

10.10 Steve Johnson, Buf

11.1 Ronnie Hillman, Den

12.10 Owen Daniels, Hou

13.1 Jermichael Finley, GB

14.10 Joe Flacco, Bal

15.1 Green Bay Packers, GB
and yes I did get the #1 spot in my first draft. Although I am not sure I like #1. A lot of great players went off the board before I was able to draft again.

I am nervous about Cam because he is so streaky. Other than that i feel I have a great running game and good depth.

I realized after the draft if I would have just waited I could have drafted Matt Ryan in the 7th.
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Old 07-30-2013, 10:32 PM   #2
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10 or 12 man league? Flex? 2-3 starting wrs?

Thats a very risky team. Ivory, Amendola, Bradshaw, and Finley and injury prone players. Ask any fantasy football expert and they will tell you the games about minimizing risk. Ive played competitively for many years now and this bit of advice is the single most important aspect for any serious player.

Mojo is a great pick in the 3rd imo and landing him there makes him the best potential value pick of your draft. Cam is a very good pick in the 5th, but even if hes top 5 this season, its only a very good pick as opposed to a home run. Bell is the 9th is good value for a starting rb no matter how you slice it. Great pick there.

Your team has potential, especially if Amendola can put up top 10 numbers, which is entirely possible. The problem is you have a good chance of having having a bunch of talented players on your bench for weeks at a time, or worse having to let players go because of serious injuries. I would without question drop Finely or Daniels (Id drop Finely), and add another rb or wr, regardless of the structure of your league. Flacco is taking up a potential rb/wr as well, and I dont think hes worth it especially with Pita gone.
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Old 07-30-2013, 11:11 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by NorCalBronco7 View Post
10 or 12 man league? Flex? 2-3 starting wrs?

Thats a very risky team. Ivory, Amendola, Bradshaw, and Finley and injury prone players. Ask any fantasy football expert and they will tell you the games about minimizing risk. Ive played competitively for many years now and this bit of advice is the single most important aspect for any serious player.

Mojo is a great pick in the 3rd imo and landing him there makes him the best potential value pick of your draft. Cam is a very good pick in the 5th, but even if hes top 5 this season, its only a very good pick as opposed to a home run. Bell is the 9th is good value for a starting rb no matter how you slice it. Great pick there.

Your team has potential, especially if Amendola can put up top 10 numbers, which is entirely possible. The problem is you have a good chance of having having a bunch of talented players on your bench for weeks at a time, or worse having to let players go because of serious injuries. I would without question drop Finely or Daniels (Id drop Finely), and add another rb or wr, regardless of the structure of your league. Flacco is taking up a potential rb/wr as well, and I dont think hes worth it especially with Pita gone.
It is a 10 team league RB/WR is flex
I have Ivory as my flex guy.

Good points. I still need a kicker and I was going to drop Flacco. I figure I could still pick him up in FA. I never thought about Pita being out. I was toying with the plan of alternating Daniels and Finely as to their schedule. I was looking and saw Brian Hartline is still available and he would possibly be a good addition. I feel pretty good at RB where I have Bradshaw as my 4th RB but preseason hasn't even happened yet and I will need some flexibility.

So you think I should drop flacco and one of the TEs. Pick up a kicker and maybe Hartline. I drafted Jackson and I almost took Hartline there as I think he is going to have a good year.

Last edited by Bacchus; 07-30-2013 at 11:14 PM..
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Old 07-30-2013, 11:26 PM   #4
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One guy drafted Percy Harvin. I told him Harvin is out and offered him a trade of Bradshaw and Decker for Alfred Morris. Too me I would love to add Morris and that would push Ivory to the fourth spot.

Does this make sense to him at all? I think he'll pass on it because he does have miles Austin he could use in place of Harvin. But the preseason hasn't even started and he already has lost a starting WR.
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Old 07-30-2013, 11:49 PM   #5
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I think your team sucks balls. You better make moves and pay attention to fa's/waiver wire.

I'm surprised Ryan dropped to the 7th round. And why would you take Newton over him?

Also, why are you running two qb's and two te's?
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Old 07-31-2013, 01:58 AM   #6
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It is a 10 team league RB/WR is flex
I have Ivory as my flex guy.

Good points. I still need a kicker and I was going to drop Flacco. I figure I could still pick him up in FA. I never thought about Pita being out. I was toying with the plan of alternating Daniels and Finely as to their schedule. I was looking and saw Brian Hartline is still available and he would possibly be a good addition. I feel pretty good at RB where I have Bradshaw as my 4th RB but preseason hasn't even happened yet and I will need some flexibility.

So you think I should drop flacco and one of the TEs. Pick up a kicker and maybe Hartline. I drafted Jackson and I almost took Hartline there as I think he is going to have a good year.
Yeah I would definitely drop them for the best rbs/wrs available. Hartline isnt a bad way to go. Hes most likely a #3 wr which is a nice addition at this point. But its possible you can do better.

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One guy drafted Percy Harvin. I told him Harvin is out and offered him a trade of Bradshaw and Decker for Alfred Morris. Too me I would love to add Morris and that would push Ivory to the fourth spot.

Does this make sense to him at all? I think he'll pass on it because he does have miles Austin he could use in place of Harvin. But the preseason hasn't even started and he already has lost a starting WR.
To him, no, it makes absolutely zero sense. Morris is a true bell cow #1 rb. Considering how rare great rbs are, and how few of them exist in the modern NFL, the demand for them is insanely high.

Id trade Julio Jones for Morris and not think twice. But if you dont like that idea, offer him Amendola and Ivory. Having AP, Mojo, Morris, Julio, and Decker would be nasty. You would need some backup wrs, well at least 1, but they are not as difficult to find on the waiver.
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Old 07-31-2013, 02:01 AM   #7
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Yeah I would definitely drop them for the best rbs/wrs available. Hartline isnt a bad way to go. Hes most likely a #3 wr which is a nice addition at this point. But its possible you can do better.



To him, no, it makes absolutely zero sense. Morris is a true bell cow #1 rb. Considering how rare great rbs are, and how few of them exist in the modern NFL, the demand for them is insanely high.

Id trade Julio Jones for Morris and not think twice. But if you dont like that idea, offer him Amendola and Ivory. Having AP, Mojo, Morris, Julio, and Decker would be nasty. You would need some backup wrs, well at least 1, but they are not as difficult to find on the waiver.
Yeah, ok I'll do that.
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Old 07-31-2013, 02:04 AM   #8
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I think your team sucks balls. You better make moves and pay attention to fa's/waiver wire.

I'm surprised Ryan dropped to the 7th round. And why would you take Newton over him?

Also, why are you running two qb's and two te's?
It was close I think Newton is going to have a bounce back year and he runs for lots of yards. If I would have known I could have picked up Ryan that late then I would have waited.

I picked up Flacco only because I didn't want to select a kicker at that point.

I have the two TEs because they are similar and I thought I could play the one with the better matchup. But I will re-think that too. Thanks.
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Old 07-31-2013, 11:37 AM   #9
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It was close I think Newton is going to have a bounce back year and he runs for lots of yards. If I would have known I could have picked up Ryan that late then I would have waited.

I picked up Flacco only because I didn't want to select a kicker at that point.

I have the two TEs because they are similar and I thought I could play the one with the better matchup. But I will re-think that too. Thanks.
As mentioned, your team is pretty boom/bust potential. Pay attention to news of the other teams out there and when a top player goes down, immediate jump on the backup player. Expect more to happen before week 1. There are always gems out there that can explode in FF every year. Good luck.
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Old 08-06-2013, 05:37 AM   #10
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Couldn't agree more on getting rid of Finley and Flacco. I'd also be on the lookout for a replacement for Johnson. He's good but does he have anyone to throw to him and he went out with a hamstring injury. I avoid players with those like the plague because they seem to hamper them all year. And probably not a big deal, but GB's D? Yuck.
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Old 08-06-2013, 06:23 AM   #11
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I dropped Flacco and the TE and I picked up Brian Hartline and a kicker. I like my depth as it is Decker is my third WR, but Ivory is having hamstring issues already. Hopefully, they'll straighten out or Bradshaw will be my flex RB.

I have two more teams I'll be playing so I can learn from this one first.
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Old 08-06-2013, 10:18 PM   #12
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1.1 Adrian Peterson, Min- No brainer

2.10 Julio Jones, Atl- Great numer 1 WR and they have a nice schedule in Atl

3.1 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac- Great number 2, with 1 upside. Who else do jags have?

4.10 Chris Ivory, NYJ- Your first bust

5.1 Cam Newton, Car- IMO way too early for a QB but he does have top 5 potential

6.10 Danny Amendola, NE- A good pick if he stays healthy

7.1 Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind- Still injured, not sure he helps you

8.10 Eric Decker, Den- Absolute steal

9.1 Le'Veon Bell, Pit- Great pick and prob makes up for Ivory who i think is a bust

10.10 Steve Johnson, Buf- Great value top 15 possible finish in afc wr fantasy

11.1 Ronnie Hillman, Den- Great value and a better fantasy player this yr then Ivory

12.10 Owen Daniels, Hou- Really good schedule at the end of the yr in playoffs

13.1 Jermichael Finley, GB- On a high powered offense, not a bad pick if he plays to ability

14.10 Joe Flacco, Bal- Dont like him really

15.1 Green Bay Packers, GB
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Old 08-06-2013, 10:18 PM   #13
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Johnson will get healthy IMO and is worth keeping regardless of who throws the ball.
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Old 08-06-2013, 11:00 PM   #14
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Johnson will get healthy IMO and is worth keeping regardless of who throws the ball.
Thanks for the input everyone.

I started to panic a little bit as the QBs were jumping off the board. I did not want to get stuck with E. Manning, Rapistberger or Romo.

As it turned out I could have waited and drafted Matt Ryan, so I did mess up there.

To tell you the truth I know very little about Johnson and his QB situation is really scary.

I figure Rex's job is on the line and he is going back to basics and will pound the ball. I figure Ivory could be a steal of the draft but right on queue he gets injured.

I like my Decker pick as he is not even a starter in my offense but he could be.

I plugged my my league into one of these programs and it said I had the #3 offense starters and the #1 bench.
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Old 08-07-2013, 10:46 AM   #15
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I have two more teams I'll be playing so I can learn from this one first.
That is good. You will learn a lot from having multiple teams since this is your 1st time trying.
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Old 08-07-2013, 10:48 AM   #16
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1.1 Adrian Peterson, Min- No brainer

2.10 Julio Jones, Atl- Great numer 1 WR and they have a nice schedule in Atl

3.1 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac- Great number 2, with 1 upside. Who else do jags have?

4.10 Chris Ivory, NYJ- Your first bust

5.1 Cam Newton, Car- IMO way too early for a QB but he does have top 5 potential

6.10 Danny Amendola, NE- A good pick if he stays healthy

7.1 Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind- Still injured, not sure he helps you

8.10 Eric Decker, Den- Absolute steal

9.1 Le'Veon Bell, Pit- Great pick and prob makes up for Ivory who i think is a bust

10.10 Steve Johnson, Buf- Great value top 15 possible finish in afc wr fantasy

11.1 Ronnie Hillman, Den- Great value and a better fantasy player this yr then Ivory

12.10 Owen Daniels, Hou- Really good schedule at the end of the yr in playoffs

13.1 Jermichael Finley, GB- On a high powered offense, not a bad pick if he plays to ability

14.10 Joe Flacco, Bal- Dont like him really

15.1 Green Bay Packers, GB
The Ivory, Newton, and bradshaw picks are head scratchers that high. If this standard with flex, I would have went with another RB round two. AD,blank, MJD.
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Old 08-07-2013, 06:52 PM   #17
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Curious why some posters think picking a QB early is stupid?

How could a QB like Manning, Brady, Brees, etc. not be a solid pick early?

Peyton generated 311 fantasy points based on 1 point for every 10 yds rush/rec or 25 yds passing, 6 points per TD, and losing 2 points for every INT....by contrast the NFL's best RB, Adrian Peterson, generated 307 fantasy points
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Old 08-07-2013, 08:17 PM   #18
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Curious why some posters think picking a QB early is stupid?

How could a QB like Manning, Brady, Brees, etc. not be a solid pick early?

Peyton generated 311 fantasy points based on 1 point for every 10 yds rush/rec or 25 yds passing, 6 points per TD, and losing 2 points for every INT....by contrast the NFL's best RB, Adrian Peterson, generated 307 fantasy points
Because there isn't a very big dropoff between the highest scorer last year, Drew Brees, and say Tony Romo, who's basically the 10th-12th ranked QB this year. The difference between those 2 last year was actually about 5 points per week. This year Brees costs a 2nd rounder, while you can get a guy like Romo in the 8th-10th round. And you have guys like Ryan, Manning, Rodgers, RG3, Luck, Brady, Cam Newton, Kaepernick, Stafford, etc. all in between. There isn't much value there in getting the top QB anymore. Plus, in 99% of leagues you only start 1 QB.

Then you look at running backs, and every league you have to start 2-3 running backs, and there are only like 12 of them that can really be counted on. Good solid bellcows are pretty damn scarce anymore. So you really need to spend your first 2 picks, and 3 of your first 5 picks on a running back.

And actually what I've been doing in mocks this year thats given me the best looking results is going running back in rounds 1-3, and wide receiver in rounds 3-6. Then going with Romo and a high ceiling guy in RG3 or even wait longer and get another low risk high ceiling guy in Vick in the 10th-12th round, and like Bennett and Myers for my tight ends in rounds 9-10. Or even blow a 2nd on Graham if he gets to you there, then running back in rounds 1, 3, and 4. Your wideouts will still be OK in the 5th and 6th rounds, and you can still get your solid starter and high ceiling guy later on.
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Old 08-07-2013, 09:13 PM   #19
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Because there isn't a very big dropoff between the highest scorer last year, Drew Brees, and say Tony Romo, who's basically the 10th-12th ranked QB this year. The difference between those 2 last year was actually about 5 points per week. This year Brees costs a 2nd rounder, while you can get a guy like Romo in the 8th-10th round. And you have guys like Ryan, Manning, Rodgers, RG3, Luck, Brady, Cam Newton, Kaepernick, Stafford, etc. all in between. There isn't much value there in getting the top QB anymore. Plus, in 99% of leagues you only start 1 QB.

Then you look at running backs, and every league you have to start 2-3 running backs, and there are only like 12 of them that can really be counted on. Good solid bellcows are pretty damn scarce anymore. So you really need to spend your first 2 picks, and 3 of your first 5 picks on a running back.

And actually what I've been doing in mocks this year thats given me the best looking results is going running back in rounds 1-3, and wide receiver in rounds 3-6. Then going with Romo and a high ceiling guy in RG3 or even wait longer and get another low risk high ceiling guy in Vick in the 10th-12th round, and like Bennett and Myers for my tight ends in rounds 9-10. Or even blow a 2nd on Graham if he gets to you there, then running back in rounds 1, 3, and 4. Your wideouts will still be OK in the 5th and 6th rounds, and you can still get your solid starter and high ceiling guy later on.
What you say is true. My plan was to get Matt Ryan or best available QB in the 5th round. I thought Cam would be gone by then and I had to choose. Ryan would have been the much safer pick so I am hoping I didn't mess up.

Getting Peterson in the 1st I figured I would be able to select the best WR available in the 2nd. Especially since it is the bottom of the second and I saw Jones there I was suprised. I then had the pick at the top of the third and grabbed MJD. Thereby solidifying the RBs barring injury of course.

If I would have had the last pick in the round and the first pick in the next round I think I would have gone two RBs. I looked at Graham's stats last year and he did not dominate and really didn't seem to be much more than average so I could not see spending a 2nd rounder on hkim. Maybe he'll bounce back.
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Old 08-07-2013, 09:47 PM   #20
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I looked at Graham's stats last year and he did not dominate and really didn't seem to be much more than average so I could not see spending a 2nd rounder on hkim. Maybe he'll bounce back.
He was banged up last year. Look to 2011 and possibly beating those #'s this year barring injury.
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Old 08-09-2013, 11:02 PM   #21
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Enjoy FF Bacchus and learn. If you are playing multiple teams, which I recommend, you can get the hang of it. GL this year.
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Old 08-11-2013, 09:50 AM   #22
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Here you go Bacchus. From the footballguys rate my team app.

QB: Cam Newton, Joe Flacco
RB: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, LeVeon Bell, Chris Ivory, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ronnie Hillman
WR: Julio Jones, Danny Amendola, Eric Decker, Steve Johnson
TE: Jermichael Finley, Owen Daniels
TD: Green Bay Packers

Overview:

Old school!

Make no mistake about it: this team is about strength at the running back position. And we think it will be among the top teams in the league. Somewhere Marshall Faulk is smiling.

Nonetheless, we'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention the relative lack of strength at quarterback and receiver. These are usually survivable weaknesses, but we'd feel better if we knew you were committed to zealously scouring the waiver wire for this year's emergent players at QB and WR. Getting a breakout player at one or both of those positions would take your already-good team to the next level.

Players we particularly like on this team include Owen Daniels and LeVeon Bell. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 51 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 13 of 2010:
Adrian Peterson vs. BUF: 108 combined yards, 3 TD
Chris Ivory vs. CIN: 117 combined yards, 2 TD
Ahmad Bradshaw vs. WAS: 105 combined yards, 2 TD
Maurice Jones-Drew vs. TEN: 190 combined yards

QB Summary:

We expect Cam Newton to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #4 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.

As of now, we're not buying Joe Flacco as a viable backup quarterback. Even though Newton should be starting for you most weeks, we'd recommend an upgrade here if possible (we'll make some specific suggestions at the end of the report).

Incidentally, Flacco has what we project as a good matchup (BUF) during Newton's bye.

RB Summary:

Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Adrian Peterson as a top running back. Our projections have Peterson ranked at #1 and Maurice Jones-Drew ranked at #18.

Your bench also looks good. We love LeVeon Bell as a third running back. Likewise, Chris Ivory should be excellent at RB4.

Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than four players here. Of your remaining guys, we like Ahmad Bradshaw the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Maurice Jones-Drew is ranked #4 by some of our writers, which would make him a great second running back and even a legitimate RB1. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "I am very high on Jones-Drew this season, even with the recent news off the field. he should be fully recovered from the foot injury and ready to produce. The Jaguars will rely on their stud back once again."

WR Summary:

Your starting receivers should be adequate but not great. They don't stand out as difference-makers, but both should be OK. Julio Jones is our sixth ranked WR, and we have Danny Amendola at #16.

Eric Decker should serve as a very solid third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Steve Johnson should also be solidly above average at WR4.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Julio Jones ranked as high as second, which would make him an above average first receiver. Jeff Pasquino defends his high ranking as follows: "One of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL, the only things that keep him from being the top receiver overall are Calvin Johnson being THAT good and Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez stealing chances from Jones. Jones should be a dominant Top 3 wide receiver this year and for years to come."

Some of our staffers have Danny Amendola as high as #10, which would make him a great second receiver and even a legitimate WR1. Mark Wimer's take: "Someone among the wide receivers has to become Tom Brady's favorite target - Amendola has a skill set similar to Wes Welkers, and I am not a big believer in either Donald Jones or Julian Edelman. Thus, I think Amendola becomes a top-15 receiver this year almost by default IF he stays healthy. He'll be on the borderline between WR #1 and WR #2 numbers (Amendola is more attractive in PPR leagues, where (if healthy all year - the big IF with this guy) he should comfortably land among the WR #1 range). "

TE Summary:

Though neither of them is elite, you have two viable starting tight ends in Jermichael Finley and Owen Daniels. If one of them breaks out, or if you play the matchups well, you'll probably get good production from the position.

Defense Summary:

The Packers are probably not a difference-maker at defense, but they should be OK.

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Packers', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Packers + Browns = MIA | BAL | CIN | CIN | BUF | DET | CLE | KC | CHI | PHI | CIN | PIT | JAX | ATL | CHI | NYJ
Packers + Giants = DAL | WAS | CIN | KC | PHI | CHI | CLE | PHI | CHI | PHI | NYG | DAL | DET | SD | DAL | PIT
Packers + Buccaneers = NYJ | NO | CIN | ARI | DET | PHI | CLE | CAR | CHI | PHI | NYG | DET | DET | BUF | DAL | PIT

Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2014 season.

Schedule Analysis
Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Joe Flacco DEN CLE HOU BUF MIA GB PIT CLE CIN CHI NYJ PIT MIN DET NE
Cam Newton SEA BUF NYG ARI MIN STL TB ATL SF NE MIA TB NO NYJ NO

LeVeon Bell TEN CIN CHI MIN NYJ BAL OAK NE BUF DET CLE BAL MIA CIN GB
Ahmad Bradshaw OAK MIA SF JAX SEA SD DEN HOU STL TEN ARI TEN CIN HOU KC
Maurice Jones-Drew KC OAK SEA IND STL DEN SD SF TEN ARI HOU CLE HOU BUF TEN
Ronnie Hillman BAL NYG OAK PHI DAL JAX IND WAS SD KC NE KC TEN SD HOU
Chris Ivory TB NE BUF TEN ATL PIT NE CIN NO BUF BAL MIA OAK CAR CLE
Adrian Peterson DET CHI CLE PIT CAR NYG GB DAL WAS SEA GB CHI BAL PHI CIN

Danny Amendola BUF NYJ TB ATL CIN NO NYJ MIA PIT CAR DEN HOU CLE MIA BAL
Eric Decker BAL NYG OAK PHI DAL JAX IND WAS SD KC NE KC TEN SD HOU
Steve Johnson NE CAR NYJ BAL CLE CIN MIA NO KC PIT NYJ ATL TB JAX MIA
Julio Jones NO STL MIA NE NYJ TB ARI CAR SEA TB NO BUF GB WAS SF

Owen Daniels SD TEN BAL SEA SF STL KC IND ARI OAK JAX NE JAX IND DEN
Jermichael Finley SF WAS CIN DET BAL CLE MIN CHI PHI NYG MIN DET ATL DAL PIT

Green Bay Packers SF WAS CIN DET BAL CLE MIN CHI PHI NYG MIN DET ATL DAL PIT

Relative Strength 101 100 101 100 94 97 103 106 101 100 104 101 101 101 101 101

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 5 presents moderate bye week issues: LeVeon Bell and Adrian Peterson are not playing.

Julio Jones is out in week 6, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

In weeks 4, 7, 8, 9, and 10 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents
Listed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.

QB: Matt Schaub (8), Ben Roethlisberger (5), Sam Bradford (11), Jay Cutler (8), Philip Rivers (8), Ryan Tannehill (6), Joe Flacco (8), Carson Palmer (9), Jake Locker (8), Brandon Weeden (10).

RB: Ben Tate (8), Vick Ballard (8), Danny Woodhead (8), Jacquizz Rodgers (6), Fred Jackson (12), Bernard Pierce (8), Pierre Thomas (7), Ronnie Hillman (9), Jonathan Stewart (4), Bryce Brown (12).

WR: DeAndre Hopkins (8), Kendall Wright (8), Alshon Jeffery (8), Sidney Rice (12), Darrius Heyward-Bey (8), Greg Little (10), Malcom Floyd (8), Brandon LaFell (4), Rueben Randle (9), Rod Streater (7), Ryan Broyles (9), Andre Roberts (9), Markus Wheaton (5), Stephen Hill (10), Aaron Dobson (10), Jeremy Kerley (10).

TE: Greg Olsen (4), Jared Cook (11), Owen Daniels (8), Jordan Cameron (10), Fred Davis (5), Kyle Rudolph (5), Antonio Gates (8), Brandon Pettigrew (9), Martellus Bennett (8), Dustin Keller (6).

TD: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.
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Old 08-11-2013, 10:15 AM   #23
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Damn, thats a thorough analysis.
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Old 08-11-2013, 08:45 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalBronco7 View Post
Damn, thats a thorough analysis.
Yes indeed. Thanks for that link. I used it for my team in my 12 team league.

It even breaks down each matchup for the season and potential free agents. If your a noob this is a perfect site. Heres mine:

QB: Tony Romo, Carson Palmer
RB: Arian Foster, Chris Ivory, Giovani Bernard, Ronnie Hillman, Bernard Pierce, LaMichael James
WR: Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Marques Colston, Chris Givens, Cordarrelle Patterson, A.J. Jenkins
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Marcedes Lewis
PK: Sebastian Janikowski
TD: New York Giants
Overview:

In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.

Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck could be had very cheap in August and September, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2011 it was Cam Newton; in 2010 it was Michael Vick and Josh Freeman; in 2008, the same could be said of players like Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Matt Cassel. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.

So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.

Players we particularly like on this team include Chris Givens, Marques Colston, and Bernard Pierce. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 72 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 9 of 2011:

Arian Foster vs. CLE: 150 combined yards, 1 TD
Carson Palmer vs. DEN: 332 passing yards, 3 TD
Brandon Marshall vs. KC: 106 receiving yards, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski vs. NYG: 101 receiving yards, 1 TD
QB Summary:

We have Tony Romo rated #10 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Carson Palmer (ranked #24 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Romo turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.

Incidentally, Palmer has what we project as a neutral matchup (JAX) during Romo's bye.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Tony Romo is ranked #5 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first quarterback. Heath Cummings reasons, "I think with all the talk about his work ethic, Tony Romo really has something to prove this season. He has Dez Bryant, newly established as an elite receiver, and the ever reliable Jason Witten to lean on. Assuming an improved Cowboys offensive line we may see Romo's best season since 2007."

Some of our staffers have Carson Palmer as high as #13, which would make him an above average second quarterback. Matt Waldman's take: "Palmer's demise is greatly exaggerated. He's a confident passer willing to target receivers in tight spots. That was the problem in Oakland because he lacked experienced receivers capable of catching these passes. Since Kurt Warner retired, Larry Fitzgerald has lacked a quarterback willing to give him the ball after getting two inches of daylight on his defender. If you ask me, this is like Chocolate and Peanut butter. "

RB Summary:

We like Arian Foster as a top RB, but we consider your starting running backs, as a group, to be a little below par. Our projections have Foster ranked at #3 and Chris Ivory ranked at #27.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. We see Giovani Bernard as an average third running back; he's a likely flex starter. Ronnie Hillman is an excellent RB4. Not only do we like Bernard Pierce as a fifth running back, we love that you stole him from the Ray Rice owner.

LaMichael James is a solid depth pick.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Chris Ivory is ranked #20 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine second running back. Kyle Wachtel reasons, "Great combination of power and speed. Heading to a run-based offense. Health is the only obstacle."

Some members of our staff have Giovani Bernard ranked as high as 22nd, which would make him a great third running back and even a legitimate RB2. James Brimacombe defends his high ranking as follows: "With the Bengals shelling out a high second round pick on Bernard, they clearly have a vision for him in their offense. Bernard has such great speed, quickness, elusiveness, and hands that he will make life hard for BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and should overtake him in production even in his rookie season. Some may question his size (5-8 200 lbs) and think he can't be an every down RB, but the fact is he has all the tools to succeed. "

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 3.2 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Brandon Marshall is our sixth ranked WR, Roddy White is #9, and we have Marques Colston 14th.

Chris Givens should serve as a very solid fourth receiver --- also probably a frequent flex contributor. Cordarrelle Patterson should be adequate at WR5. A.J. Jenkins is a very weak sixth receiver.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have A.J. Jenkins as high as #52, which would make him a great sixth receiver and even a legitimate WR5. Adam Harstad's take: "To say that Jenkins' rookie year was disappointing is an understatement. Many people raised their eyebrows when the 49ers selected Jenkins earlier than expected. To many of those people, an invisible rookie season only confirmed their suspicions that Jenkins would bust. To this, I say poppycock. While few expected Jenkins to sneak into the first round, he was pretty universally considered a quality prospect coming into the league, and a slow rookie season has never been the death knell for receivers in the NFL. With Crabtree sidelined for most or all of the season, Jenkins enters 2013 with another opportunity to reward San Francisco's faith in him."

TE Summary:

As you are well aware, Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end. We have him ranked second overall at the position. He's about 2.6 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Marcedes Lewis is an adequate second tight end.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have Marcedes Lewis as high as #14, which would make him an above average second tight end. Jason Wood's take: "Marcedes Lewis isn't a world beater...how can he be with Blaine Gabbert at the helm? Yet, he finished 17th last year and the Jaguars failed to add any other threats to the receiving game. Lewis and WR Cecil Shorts will see plenty of targets, regardless of who is under center."

Kicker Summary:

We don't think Sebastian Janikowski is starter quality in this league. Keep a sharp eye on the waiver wire.

Defense Summary:

The Giants are probably not a difference-maker at defense, but they should be OK.

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Giants', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Giants + Chargers = DAL | PHI | TEN | KC | PHI | CHI | JAX | PHI | WAS | OAK | MIA | KC | CIN | SD | SEA | DET | KC
Giants + Ravens = DAL | CLE | CAR | KC | PHI | CHI | PIT | PHI | CLE | CIN | CHI | NYJ | PIT | SD | DET | DET | CIN
Giants + Browns = MIA | BAL | CAR | KC | PHI | CHI | MIN | KC | BAL | OAK | CIN | PIT | JAX | SD | CHI | NYJ | PIT
Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2014 season.

SCHEDULE ANALYSIS
Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted
At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Carson Palmer STL DET NO TB CAR SF SEA ATL HOU JAX IND PHI STL TEN SEA SF
Tony Romo NYG KC STL SD DEN WAS PHI DET MIN NO NYG OAK CHI GB WAS PHI

Giovani Bernard CHI PIT GB CLE NE BUF DET NYJ MIA BAL CLE SD IND PIT MIN BAL
Arian Foster SD TEN BAL SEA SF STL KC IND ARI OAK JAX NE JAX IND DEN TEN
Ronnie Hillman BAL NYG OAK PHI DAL JAX IND WAS SD KC NE KC TEN SD HOU OAK
Chris Ivory TB NE BUF TEN ATL PIT NE CIN NO BUF BAL MIA OAK CAR CLE MIA
LaMichael James GB SEA IND STL HOU ARI TEN JAX CAR NO WAS STL SEA TB ATL ARI
Bernard Pierce DEN CLE HOU BUF MIA GB PIT CLE CIN CHI NYJ PIT MIN DET NE CIN

Marques Colston ATL TB ARI MIA CHI NE BUF NYJ DAL SF ATL SEA CAR STL CAR TB
Chris Givens ARI ATL DAL SF JAX HOU CAR SEA TEN IND CHI SF ARI NO TB SEA
A.J. Jenkins GB SEA IND STL HOU ARI TEN JAX CAR NO WAS STL SEA TB ATL ARI
Brandon Marshall CIN MIN PIT DET NO NYG WAS GB DET BAL STL MIN DAL CLE PHI GB
Cordarrelle Patterson DET CHI CLE PIT CAR NYG GB DAL WAS SEA GB CHI BAL PHI CIN DET
Roddy White NO STL MIA NE NYJ TB ARI CAR SEA TB NO BUF GB WAS SF CAR

Rob Gronkowski BUF NYJ TB ATL CIN NO NYJ MIA PIT CAR DEN HOU CLE MIA BAL BUF
Marcedes Lewis KC OAK SEA IND STL DEN SD SF TEN ARI HOU CLE HOU BUF TEN IND

Sebastian Janikowski IND JAX DEN WAS SD KC PIT PHI NYG HOU TEN DAL NYJ KC SD DEN

New York Giants DAL DEN CAR KC PHI CHI MIN PHI OAK GB DAL WAS SD SEA DET WAS

Relative Strength 99 99 101 101 103 101 98 97 104 101 94 101 99 99 101 97 100
Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.
Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).
Week 11 presents serious bye week issues for you: Tony Romo and Chris Givens are off.
Week 8 presents moderate bye week issues: Arian Foster, Bernard Pierce, and Brandon Marshall are not playing.
Marques Colston and Sebastian Janikowski are out in week 7, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
Roddy White is out in week 6, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
In weeks 4, 5, 9, and 10 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

POTENTIAL FREE AGENTS
Listed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.
QB: Sam Bradford (11), Ryan Tannehill (6), Philip Rivers (8), Joe Flacco (8), Carson Palmer (9), Jake Locker (8), Brandon Weeden (10), Matt Flynn (7), EJ Manuel (12), Christian Ponder (5).

RB: Mike Tolbert (4), Marcel Reece (7), Stepfan Taylor (9), Jonathan Dwyer (5), Rashad Jennings (7), Zac Stacy (11), Roy Helu (5), Toby Gerhart (5), LaMichael James (9), Denard Robinson (9).

WR: Julian Edelman (10), T.J. Graham (12), Braylon Edwards (10), Santonio Holmes (10), Riley Cooper (12), Donnie Avery (10), Doug Baldwin (12), Josh Morgan (5), Keenan Allen (8), Leonard Hankerson (5), Domenik Hixon (4), Jacoby Ford (7), Nate Burleson (9), Aaron Dobson (10), Dexter McCluster (10), Jordan Shipley (9), Davone Bess (10), Marvin Jones (12), Santana Moss (5). We have all these players rated ahead of A.J. Jenkins.

TE: Jared Cook (11), Antonio Gates (8), Owen Daniels (8), Fred Davis (5), Jordan Cameron (10), Kyle Rudolph (5), Martellus Bennett (8), Brandon Pettigrew (9), Dustin Keller (6), Jermaine Gresham (12), Brandon Myers (9), Marcedes Lewis (9).

PK: Josh Brown (9), David Akers (9), Steve Hauschka (12), Blair Walsh (5), Mason Crosby (4), Kai Forbath (5), Dan Bailey (11), Adam Vinatieri (8), Lawrence Tynes (5), Mike Nugent (12), Greg Zuerlein (11), Robbie Gould (8), Shaun Suisham (5), Alex Henery (12), Sebastian Janikowski (7).

TD: Cincinnati Bengals (12), Denver Broncos (9), New York Giants (9), Arizona Cardinals (9), St. Louis Rams (11), Atlanta Falcons (6), Cleveland Browns (10), Minnesota Vikings (5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5), San Diego Chargers (8).
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:22 PM   #25
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So how's your team doing Bacchus?
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