|04-29-2013, 01:37 AM||#1|
Is It Draft Day Yet?
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Jacksonville, FL
2013 Mock Draft Game Final Scores
All the calculations and number crunching can be found in this thread:
Total Franchise Value (TFV) consists of:
1. Real NFL Draft Accuracy
2. Inherent Selection Value
3. Raw(Actual) Selection Value
4. Free Agency Value
REAL NFL DRAFT ACCURACY
As the name suggests, each selection is compared to the real NFL draft results to see where the player's true draft value was. The criteria is arbitrary, but both extremely fair and quite simple:
Selections 1-25, can be up to 5 draft slots off to receive positive value.
Selections 26-75, can be up to 10 draft slots off to receive positive value.
Selections 75-150, can be up to 15 draft slots off to receive positive value.
Selections 151+, can be up to 20 draft slots off to receive positive value.
The thinking obviously being that it's easier to identify the better talents in the draft and thus the penalty range for missing on those easier to identify talents is greater. Towards the end of the draft, you can be off by a half round and still get credit for a value selection, the talent is much harder to identify and grade. For this, earlier selections have more value because they are easier to accurately forecast, which keeps GMs from wanting to just trade down and always stockpile.
Each individual selection is checked and marked red if it fails to be an accurate value. These red selections are not counted in the number tally for the Inherent Selection Value. The last 20 selections in the 7th Round are at a disadvantage. If the player is not selected by the end of the NFL draft, the selection is considered inaccurate for bonus point consideration, though for the draft accuracy rankings, those inaccurate selections are just omitted altogether, meaning your accuracy percentage will be based on all your other selections. This is for a seperate Top 32 ranking based solely on Draft Value Accuracy. It is not the listing of whom won the game, but it is the listing of the top GMs in terms of accurately forecasting player draft value.
INHERENT SELECTION VALUE
For purposes of a game like this in which trading is a key factor, you have to maintain equal opportunity between stock piling mid/late round selections versus a limited number of earlier selections. In short, the 1st Overall selection must have some inherent value to make it just as enticing as trading back for multiple selections, or else everyone would always trade. Thus, we have Inherent Selection Value. This is the chart:
1st Round 1-10, 11-20, 21-32 100, 90, 80 2nd Round 33-42, 43-52, 53-64 75, 70, 65 3rd Round 65-74, 75-84, 85-97 60, 55, 50 4th Round 98-115, 116-133 45, 40 5th Round 134-150, 151-168 35, 30 6th Round 169-187, 188-206 25, 20 7th Round 207-230, 231-254 15, 10
Thus, a cocky GM might feel comfortable trading the sure thing early selection for more later selections because if he drafts accurately on all of those picks, he has a good chance to earn more points than he would staying at #1 Overall. But there's a lot of risk, and as this game shows, those with the most picks did not always fare the best. So, by using inherent values, the integrity and desireabilty of early round selections are maintained, while the desire to just trade back and accumulate a massive amount of selections is checked.
As mentioned earlier, the final 20 selections in the 7th Round, if the player is not picked in the real NFL draft, receive no inherent value points. It just makes these last few selections even less attractive, though if you still nail a sleeper, it's big points.
RAW (ACTUAL) SELECTION VALUE
This is easy, it's simply the difference, positive or negative, for each selection between where they were drafted in the Mock Draft and where they were drafted in the real NFL draft. And then all those values are added together for a score.
This is also why Inherent values were needed as a great selection at #1 Overall that really went #1 Overall would get you zero points. You wouldn't lose any, you wouldn't gain any. But with the inherent value, now you would get 100 points and the selection has great value again.
Thus, Raw Value is really a measure of reaches and steals. Inherent Value is what rewards draft accuracy. Together I think they measure a GM's competency in the draft game.
FREE AGENCY VALUE
This is like extra credit after an exam. If you win a bid on a player in Free Agency and he gets drafted, you get points. Specifically, since this draft had 254 selections, all Free Agents are assigned #255. Thus, if a Free Agent in our game was actually drafted at #200 in the NFL draft, you would get 55 points added to your score (255-200 = 55). This year, we had 29 Free Agents that actually were drafted by the NFL. That's a lot of bonus points. If you want to win this game, you'd probably better participate in the Free Agency Round next year.
2013 ORANGE MANE MOCK DRAFT FINAL RESULTS:
TOTAL FRANCHISE VALUE RESULTS 1. +657 Cleveland Drunken.Broncoholic 2. +579 Kansas City Conklin 3. +487 Tennessee Lycan 4. +460 Cincinnati Requiem/MUG 5. +423 Miami Phibacka31/SouthStndJunkie 6. +386 Indianapolis Mediator12 7. +345 Philadelphia Arkie 8. +344 St. Louis Rohirrim 9. +308 Minnesota jebures 10. +292 New Orleans Drek 11. +291 Detroit DBroncos4life 12. +240 Green Bay srphoenix 13. +214 Arizona TheReverend 14. +211 Houston 24champ/Requiem 15. +205 NY Giants BroncoMan4ever 16. +183 New England eddie mac 17. +169 Tampa Bay Traveler 18. +76 Oakland CBF1 19. +63 Jacksonville ColoradoBuff 20. +43 Carolina BroncoInferno 21. +26 Baltimore Bmore Manning 22. - 3 Dallas NickStixx 23. -16 Chicago SoDak Bronco 24. -31 NY Jets MrPeepers 25. -37 San Diego JCMElway 26. -42 Pittsburgh BowlenBall 27. -109 Buffalo BroncosfanGuy 28. -162 Seattle socalorado 29. -175 Atlanta ludo21 30. -203 Washington Shananahan 31. -205 Denver GoHAM/schaaf 32. -274 San Francisco DENVERDUI55
Last edited by Mat'hir Uth Gan; 04-29-2013 at 02:05 AM..