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Old 03-20-2013, 10:28 PM   #1301
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I've been waiting for a while. Gonna check in a half hour or so from now. Gonna be overnight for me if no one picks
You and CBF1 are welcome to PM me your picks before you go to bed, and I'll post them up for you when it's time -- I'm on Abu Dhabi time, and check the site every few hours throughout my workday. Sure would be nice to get this thing moving again.....
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Old 03-20-2013, 10:51 PM   #1302
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You and CBF1 are welcome to PM me your picks before you go to bed, and I'll post them up for you when it's time -- I'm on Abu Dhabi time, and check the site every few hours throughout my workday. Sure would be nice to get this thing moving again.....
Ya I might do that. Ill be up for a bit longer so maybe CBF1 will make the pick soon.


Edit. CBF1 was quick
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Old 03-20-2013, 10:55 PM   #1303
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CBF1 does not mess around.... Unless he is out of town for work lol You are on the clock.
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Old 03-20-2013, 10:58 PM   #1304
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CBF1 does not mess around.... Unless he is out of town for work lol You are on the clock.
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Old 03-20-2013, 11:53 PM   #1305
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I like the Will Davis selection at this point by SF. He probably goes in the early 4th round at worst, so this was a very nice value.


Don't like the DJ Hayden selection. I understand Oakland is beyond desperate for a CB, but there are still some really good options out there. I don't think it was time to take this gigantic risk on Hayden. He might never suit up in the NFL. He might suit up and die. He might suit up and be phenominal. If it was me though, no way I draft him. And I'm not certain he gets drafted, there's too much risk and potential liability here. It's a shame because he's a talented player.


I do like the Dion Sims pick for Cleveland. He's a good blocker with soft hands. Pretty much exactly what was needed with Cameron already there to stretch the seam. This seems about right in terms of draft value, I anticipate late 4th-early 5th.



Three selections within an hour there, we all like that! Keep the train rollin!
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Old 03-21-2013, 06:56 AM   #1306
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I love the Hayden pick, CBF1. Everything I've read suggests the medicals are promising long-term (contrary to MUGs more gloomy prognosis above). I was planning to take him with Panthers next selection
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Old 03-21-2013, 07:26 AM   #1307
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My pick's in. I'm EST and went to sleep with several guys ahead of me on the board, woke up to being OTC and it practically over.
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Old 03-21-2013, 07:48 AM   #1308
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Dion Sims was a guy I thought about taking last round, but I'm pretty sure he's going to fall apart in the NFL.
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Old 03-21-2013, 07:50 AM   #1309
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DJ Hayden ran fast. That is about all he can do. MUG's concerns are absolutely true. Not even close to worth it right now. I have three guys who should have been selected at CB/DB a long time ago that are still there and profile as starters in the NFL. I'm absolutely shocked that they haven't been selected. Once those guys get picked, I will applaud the people who drafted them.

Apparently Hayden was a Top 15 corner (since 17 were taken already, but several of those guys will probably be S) by who picked him, but I find that hard to believe in this class. I would be interesting to see the Top 15 corners from the team that took him.

All and all, I think a lot of people have scrambled to get their guys at corner which has allowed for value at other positions to keep falling. My evidence to that is having 10 corners taken out of 35 selections. . . seems awfully high to me. I think that McFadden and Webb in the fourth rounds were some of the best value selections for players in the entire draft. Whoever got those guys deserves a pat on the back.

I knew corner would be a **** show in this draft once Dee Milliner went #2.

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Old 03-21-2013, 07:52 AM   #1310
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I love the Hayden pick, CBF1. Everything I've read suggests the medicals are promising long-term (contrary to MUGs more gloomy prognosis above). I was planning to take him with Panthers next selection
I think it's pretty risky. He ruptured a vein in his heart from a football collision. Most people die, he didn't, which was great. The problem is that he wants to continue to play a physically violent sport and has residual damage inside his heart that is likely going to make him a high risk of re-tearing his IVC on high impact contact.

From all accounts, the NFL and the world at large, has not seen someone survive this type of injury and then choose to participate in an extreme physical contact sport. Everything is going to be theorycrafted on this.

Who knows how it works out, but it's an insanely risky draft selection to me. Look how cautious teams are being with concussions now. Jahvid Best is dying to play football, and no team wants to risk playing him. I see some parallels with this situation. Which team is going to want to risk a player dying on the field?

And to top it all off, Hayden was just a two year starter at Houston coming from JUCO. He was a good player and has solid measureables, but he's not an elite prospect by any stretch. In a pretty deep CB draft, his draft value is probably right around now if he was completely healthy.

I honestly don't think he gets drafted. I'm not even sure a team will invite him to camp. We'll see how it all shakes out. This is another guy to watch on draft day now.
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Old 03-21-2013, 07:59 AM   #1311
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Dion Sims was a guy I thought about taking last round, but I'm pretty sure he's going to fall apart in the NFL.
Why is that? Weight, Injury, or Thievery?
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:09 AM   #1312
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He's missed a decent amount of time due to injury every season he's played dating back to high school.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:12 AM   #1313
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He's missed a decent amount of time due to injury every season he's played dating back to high school.
Dion Sims in the fifth round is better value than Terry Hawthorne in the middle of the third.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:13 AM   #1314
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DJ Hayden ran fast. That is about all he can do. MUG's concerns are absolutely true. Not even close to worth it right now. I have three guys who should have been selected at CB/DB a long time ago that are still there and profile as starters in the NFL. I'm absolutely shocked that they haven't been selected. Once those guys get picked, I will applaud the people who drafted them.

Apparently Hayden was a Top 15 corner (since 17 were taken already, but several of those guys will probably be S) by who picked him, but I find that hard to believe in this class. I would be interesting to see the Top 15 corners from the team that took him.

All and all, I think a lot of people have scrambled to get their guys at corner which has allowed for value at other positions to keep falling. My evidence to that is having 10 corners taken out of 35 selections. . . seems awfully high to me. I think that McFadden and Webb in the fourth rounds were some of the best value selections for players in the entire draft. Whoever got those guys deserves a pat on the back.

I knew corner would be a **** show in this draft once Dee Milliner went #2.
Good rule of thumb:

Whatever position the Broncos have a need at WILL get overdrafted in the OM mock because more time has been invested into players at those positions by the majority of participants.

That's why a billion DTs have flown off the board for the past half decade way higher than they should
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:14 AM   #1315
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Dion Sims in the fifth round is better value than Terry Hawthorne in the middle of the third.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:15 AM   #1316
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Good rule of thumb:

Whatever position the Broncos have a need at WILL get overdrafted in the OM mock because more time has been invested into players at those positions by the majority of participants.

That's why a billion DTs have flown off the board for the past half decade way higher than they should
17 corners and 31 OL have been taken already in this draft accounting for ~ 35% of all selections. . . through basically four rounds. That is stupid.

21 OT have been taken, with obviously some tweeners. Really? 21 OT in the Top 125 grades of overall players in this draft?

This is why the Bengals get nice things like Gio Bernard and Zavier Gooden in third and fourth rounds.

Alvin Bailey should have been a higher rated OL in this draft, but no-named OT's who will be reserves in the NFL or out of the league before their rookie contracts expires go 30-40 picks ahead of him. Yup. OM Draft fasho.

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Old 03-21-2013, 08:21 AM   #1317
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Dion Sims was a guy I thought about taking last round, but I'm pretty sure he's going to fall apart in the NFL.
Ya I figured in the 5th it was a lower risk higher reward. He's been banged up alot though. but in 2012 he was more focused on keeping his body in shape. Pretty good pro day
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:26 AM   #1318
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My pick's in. I'm EST and went to sleep with several guys ahead of me on the board, woke up to being OTC and it practically over.
Hill was solid value here. Hopefully the knee is good to go, seems like it's heading that direction after his Pro Day improvements.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:27 AM   #1319
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17 corners and 31 OL have been taken already in this draft accounting for ~ 35% of all selections. . . through basically four rounds. That is stupid.

21 OT have been taken, with obviously some tweeners. Really? 21 OT in the Top 125 grades of overall players in this draft?

This is why the Bengals get nice things like Gio Bernard and Zavier Gooden in third and fourth rounds.

Alvin Bailey should have been a higher rated OL in this draft, but no-named OT's who will be reserves in the NFL or out of the league before their rookie contracts expires go 30-40 picks ahead of him. Yup. OM Draft fasho.
As you mentioned a lot of those CBs will swap to safety.

Even more of those OTs will be swapping to G

It's not THAT bad. Haven't really seen many cringe worthy picks. Probably can still count them on one hand that I thought were dumb.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:35 AM   #1320
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As you mentioned a lot of those CBs will swap to safety.

Even more of those OTs will be swapping to G

It's not THAT bad. Haven't really seen many cringe worthy picks. Probably can still count them on one hand that I thought were dumb.
Then I would have to redo my math to include all the safeties taken too that weren't in those calculations. I just have a hard time believing that come the fifth round in the real draft, ~ 40% of the selections will be on DB and OL. Are there ~ 30 OL in your Top 125? Just curious.

Now that we are talking value, I think we should all recap the best and worst selections of rounds 1-4. Will post mine soon.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:43 AM   #1321
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:49 AM   #1322
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I think it's pretty risky. He ruptured a vein in his heart from a football collision. Most people die, he didn't, which was great. The problem is that he wants to continue to play a physically violent sport and has residual damage inside his heart that is likely going to make him a high risk of re-tearing his IVC on high impact contact.

From all accounts, the NFL and the world at large, has not seen someone survive this type of injury and then choose to participate in an extreme physical contact sport. Everything is going to be theorycrafted on this.

Who knows how it works out, but it's an insanely risky draft selection to me. Look how cautious teams are being with concussions now. Jahvid Best is dying to play football, and no team wants to risk playing him. I see some parallels with this situation. Which team is going to want to risk a player dying on the field?

And to top it all off, Hayden was just a two year starter at Houston coming from JUCO. He was a good player and has solid measureables, but he's not an elite prospect by any stretch. In a pretty deep CB draft, his draft value is probably right around now if he was completely healthy.

I honestly don't think he gets drafted. I'm not even sure a team will invite him to camp. We'll see how it all shakes out. This is another guy to watch on draft day now.
I don't agree that it's a huge risk. Probably 2/3 of the guys who go in the 5th round won't be in the league in three years. So, if he doesn't pan out, it's not a huge whiff. Also, while it was a near miracle that he survived his injury (I think I read it's common in car accidents, and results in death 95% of the time), I haven't read anything that suggests that there is a high risk of him re-aggravating the injury. If he had a clean bill of health, he's a 2nd round guy, easy. In the 5th, I think the potential reward exceeds the risk.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:52 AM   #1323
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Second round? No way.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:56 AM   #1324
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Then I would have to redo my math to include all the safeties taken too that weren't in those calculations. I just have a hard time believing that come the fifth round in the real draft, ~ 40% of the selections will be on DB and OL. Are there ~ 30 OL in your Top 125? Just curious.

Now that we are talking value, I think we should all recap the best and worst selections of rounds 1-4. Will post mine soon.
Not 30, but not too far off. A little over 20. And when 4 of the top draft prospects are OL it DOES set a tone. Seeing 30 go on draft day wouldn't stun me.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:57 AM   #1325
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Second round? No way.
You're wrong. In addition to the snippet posted by CBF1 in his selection post that makes that projection, here's another:

D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston (Scouts Inc. Grade: 84)

There's a big reason no one is talking about Hayden. In practice this past November, Hayden tore his inferior vena cava, a major vein that feeds the heart, in a collision with a teammate in practice. He was in the hospital for six days with an injury that typically holds about a 95 percent fatality rate and that is common in high-speed car accidents. It's a minor miracle that he survived the injury.

He hasn't been able to work out and run for teams, and that's why he hasn't received a lot of buzz during the draft process. Most reports from scouts I've talked to are that he is on pace to be ready for action in the fall. He's starting to do a little light jogging, but he hasn't been able to test. However, his tape ranks near the top of all the cornerback prospects I've studied so far.

Against UCLA, you see a player who is instinctive, fluid and quick. He also shows an explosive closing burst and can make up ground in a hurry. A clear example came in the second half when he was initially beaten on a post route but was able to transition quickly with a speed-turn and track the receiver to make a play on the ball. Throw in a pair a of interceptions when he showed strong awareness and eyes to key Bruins QB Brett Hundley, come off of his primary assignment and track the ball. Hayden turned in a complete game.

The UCLA tape was not the only one when he flashed playmaking instincts. Against UTEP, Hayden jumped a slant route for an interception deep in his own territory before showing an extra gear to cut across the grain and run away from pursuit on his way to a 97-yard return for a touchdown. It was one of the more impressive plays I have seen during my film study this year. I also like his willingness to step up and set the edge in run support, which is a critical component scouts look for with the position.

Hayden checked in at the combine at 5-foot-11 and 191 pounds and has above-average size. Whether it's in the third round or he falls to Day 3, the team that takes Hayden will be getting a talented player and eventual starter. He's an early-second-round talent on tape, but because of the injury, a team might be able to get him in the third or fourth round. At that point, he'd be an absolute steal.


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