Mendenhall, Knighton, DRC, Freeney & other potential targets

[Drek]

Originally Posted by TonyR

Yup. Others have already posted it, but this article (if you agree with their analysis) tries to help at least partly explain why Doom isn't worth $12 million in the Broncos' scheme.

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/bron...ush-repertoire

That article makes no attempt to explain why Doom isn't a $12M player. It explains why Doom's lack of per-snap production via PFF's ranking system isn't an accurate depiction of what Doom is doing.

His argument is that Doom is a one dimensional speed rusher but that's ok because a one dimensional speed rusher that is good enough at it to demand a double team is still freeing everyone else up. It forces teams into doubling either Doom or Miller while the other is highly likely to beat a one on one match-up.

So the only way Doom isn't worth $12M a year by that article is if you think 3 down speed rush DEs who consistently demand double teams aren't worth $12M, or something close to it.

Where is the 3 down solution to replace Doom in this 9-wide role? Robert Ayers isn't likely to be a wide-9 stud. He's probably better suited to more traditional weakside DE assignments and his best pass rush move is the bull rush, which is far less effective from the wide-9. Do you think he'd even demand a double team if he was suited to the role? Can anyone legitimately argue that Freeney is ever going to demand a double team again?

At that point you're giving up the entire concept of "two guys you have to double team" and instead telling everyone to double Miller and make our opposite side DE combo beat them. A gamble I'm betting most teams will GLADLY take versus a Doom/Miller tandem.

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by Drek

That article makes no attempt to explain why Doom isn't a $12M player.

I understand what you're saying, but I guess my point is that the Broncos don't think Doom is worth $12 million to do what they're asking him to do in their scheme.

The scheme is limiting Dumervil’s ability to do some of the stuff that he’s best at, in other words.

^ This is directly from the article.

[pricejj]

Mendenhall < McGahee
Knighton < Vickerson
DRC = Porter (when healthy)
Freeney <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Dumervil


Massive downgrades at most positions

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by pricejj

Mendenhall < McGahee
Knighton < Vickerson
DRC = Porter (when healthy)
Freeney <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Dumervil


Massive downgrades at most positions

You shouldn't look at some of these players as direct replacements for the others, particularly in the case of Freeney. Broncos are trying to keep Vickerson. And with the overall savings from Doom they should be able to do more things than they could if they kept him. And I think "massive" is quite generally an overstatement.

[Drek]

Originally Posted by TonyR

I understand what you're saying, but I guess my point is that the Broncos don't think Doom is worth $12 million to do what they're asking him to do in their scheme.



^ This is directly from the article.

In what way is that an evaluation of his worth?

Orlando Franklin is best at run blocking. We run a pass heavy offense. Should he not be given an extension in a few years because he's better at something we don't use as much and therefore arguably more valuable to a run focused team?

See how that works? Value is determined by how hard someone's skills that you use will be to replace, not how well you fully utilize their skill set. Doom as a weakside DE who can command a double team earns him a premium price tag.

How much is being a top 5 sacks/QB hurries team worth to you? If the downgrade of swapping Doom out for Freeney bumps us down to middle of the pack where Miller's number drop, Freeney under performs Doom, and we see a net decline of 8-10 sacks, how much is that worth to you? Hell, what is an 8-10 sack per year player worth to you? Is that difference greater than the cost savings of replacing Doom with Freeney? And that isn't even considering the fact that there is a roster limit in the NFL.

Doom produces double digit sacks while largely being used as a decoy for Miller. How many guys out there do you think can do that?

[yerner]

all those guys blow. knighton is worth a try i guess. but i don't expect much.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

Originally Posted by yerner

all those guys blow. knighton is worth a try i guess. but i don't expect much.

Exactly. I do not see how any of these players make this team a Super Bowl contender.

[Requiem]

DRC > Porter

Freeney is not Dumervil's "replacement" and at this point in their careers, I'd take Mendenhall over McGahee in a heartbeat. Think Willis fumbled more last year and lost more than Mendenhall has in his career lol.

[MagicHef]

If they really are considering cutting Doom, why haven't they done it? They aren't communicating back and forth with his agent, which makes me think they've already made up their minds on what they're going to do. There's no point to keeping him around at this point if they're going to cut him before his salary becomes guaranteed.

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by Drek

In what way is that an evaluation of his worth?

Orlando Franklin is best at run blocking. We run a pass heavy offense. Should he not be given an extension in a few years because he's better at something we don't use as much and therefore arguably more valuable to a run focused team?

See how that works? Value is determined by how hard someone's skills that you use will be to replace, not how well you fully utilize their skill set. Doom as a weakside DE who can command a double team earns him a premium price tag.

How much is being a top 5 sacks/QB hurries team worth to you? If the downgrade of swapping Doom out for Freeney bumps us down to middle of the pack where Miller's number drop, Freeney under performs Doom, and we see a net decline of 8-10 sacks, how much is that worth to you? Hell, what is an 8-10 sack per year player worth to you? Is that difference greater than the cost savings of replacing Doom with Freeney? And that isn't even considering the fact that there is a roster limit in the NFL.

Doom produces double digit sacks while largely being used as a decoy for Miller. How many guys out there do you think can do that?

But it appears you have tunnel vision here. Yes, Freeney is a downgrade from Doom. Clearly. But with the savings (which are large) the Broncos can also address other needs. Again, right or wrong, the Broncos don't value Doom's production at $12 million. And they feel they can get more overall value for the team at that number. That overall value isn't limited to one position or player.

And yes, there is a "roster limit". But there is also a "spending limit". It's called both a salary cap and a cash budget.

[Requiem]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

If they really are considering cutting Doom, why haven't they done it? They aren't communicating back and forth with his agent, which makes me think they've already made up their minds on what they're going to do. There's no point to keeping him around at this point if they're going to cut him before his salary becomes guaranteed.

They have till Saturday and they are playing hardball. Could be working out a trade.

[Rabb]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

If they really are considering cutting Doom, why haven't they done it? They aren't communicating back and forth with his agent, which makes me think they've already made up their minds on what they're going to do. There's no point to keeping him around at this point if they're going to cut him before his salary becomes guaranteed.

11th hour trade or restructure. My guess is, they are playing chicken right now.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

Mendenhall fumbled 3 times in 51 carries last year. I don't think Mcgahee was ever suspended by his own team. Between mendenhalls knee and Achilles I have no idea why they are even looking at him. I guess they never learn their lesson in depending on busted up players.

A backfield that consists of a torn mcl and acl. That's not a Super Bowl run recipe.

[Broncoman13]

I don't like Mendenhall but do realize there is talent there. Kind of a boom or bust type IMO. I would prefer SJax and then draft a guy like Bell in the 2-3 round range. In two years, when Manning hangs them up, we are going to be very dependent on the running game. Mendenhall at 25 years old makes some sense in that perspective.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

Originally Posted by TonyR

But it appears you have tunnel vision here. Yes, Freeney is a downgrade from Doom. Clearly. But with the savings (which are large) the Broncos can also address other needs. Again, right or wrong, the Broncos don't value Doom's production at $12 million. And they feel they can get more overall value for the team at that number. That overall value isn't limited to one position or player.

And yes, there is a "roster limit". But there is also a "spending limit". It's called both a salary cap and a cash budget.

There is no better value on defense of a team that is in a "win now" mode than a player who gets turnovers and sacks.

[Broncoman13]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

If they really are considering cutting Doom, why haven't they done it? They aren't communicating back and forth with his agent, which makes me think they've already made up their minds on what they're going to do. There's no point to keeping him around at this point if they're going to cut him before his salary becomes guaranteed.

See if someone is willing to give up some picks for him. Wasn't the rumor going that the Broncos were willing to send a player and picks for Revis? I am guessing that player would have been Doom. Glad it didn't work out btw, Revis is a me first player.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

Originally Posted by Broncoman13

I don't like Mendenhall but do realize there is talent there. Kind of a boom or bust type IMO..

I said those exact same words a couple years ago about Ty warren.

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by Broncoman13

I don't like Mendenhall but do realize there is talent there. Kind of a boom or bust type IMO.

Agree. I'd be fine with him in the mix if he comes cheap, but would hope he wouldn't be the guy they are depending on to be the workhorse.

[outdoor_miner]

Ah - the annual "start of free-agency freak-out". As inevitable as Winter turning to Spring. Can't wait for the melt-downs today when the team doesn't solve every single problem in Day 1 of the offseason.

[yerner]

Originally Posted by Requiem

DRC > Porter

Freeney is not Dumervil's "replacement" and at this point in their careers, I'd take Mendenhall over McGahee in a heartbeat. Think Willis fumbled more last year and lost more than Mendenhall has in his career lol.

Is DRC better than Porter? Not saying he isn't but I've always thought he's underachieved and had pretty much the same type of career as Porter. Obviously, he is better if he just stays on the field, but I don't think it's a dramatic upgrade. I'd like to see some comparisions between the two.

[Broncoman13]

Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic

Mendenhall fumbled 3 times in 51 carries last year. I don't think Mcgahee was ever suspended by his own team. Between mendenhalls knee and Achilles I have no idea why they are even looking at him. I guess they never learn their lesson in depending on busted up players.

A backfield that consists of a torn mcl and acl. That's not a Super Bowl run recipe.

Career wise Mendenhall isn't a fumbler. He is however injury prone, poor in pass pro, a head case and Osama Bin Laden apologist. I hope we don't sign him, but he appears to be the Broncos top target.

[BroncoInferno]

Originally Posted by outdoor_miner

Ah - the annual "start of free-agency freak-out".

No kidding. Every year it only takes an hour or two for the hand-wringing to begin.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

If they really are considering cutting Doom, why haven't they done it? They aren't communicating back and forth with his agent, which makes me think they've already made up their minds on what they're going to do. There's no point to keeping him around at this point if they're going to cut him before his salary becomes guaranteed.

Because there's no reason to cut him until Denver has either signed a replacement or we get to Saturday.

Doom has the leverage to not accept a paycut on Denver's terms, and Denver is $11M under the cap so they have the leverage to not cut him until it fits their timeframe. I'm sure part of Doom's belief that he's worth more than Denver wants to pay him is contingent on a release before FA starts this afternoon so he can be a part of the initial flurry. There might not be as much money out there for him if Denver waits until Saturday.

[Br0nc0Buster]

Mendenhall sucks
No idea why in an offense that relies so much on pass pro and making the correct blitz pickups we would want a retard back there protecting Peyton

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Originally Posted by outdoor_miner

Ah - the annual "start of free-agency freak-out". As inevitable as Winter turning to Spring. Can't wait for the melt-downs today when the team doesn't solve every single problem in Day 1 of the offseason.

Last year at this time, Manning wasn't coming here, he was using the Broncos as leverage, and they'd pissed of Tebow at the same time so the season was ****ed before it even began. Oh how the Internet seers were right on that one!