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Old 02-26-2013, 03:48 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ View Post
It's posted on this website but I don't know if it's an estimate or fact: http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...013&genpos=OLB
It's estimated. Once they run at the combine, their average time is posted in the combine section, same thing goes for Pro Day.
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Old 02-26-2013, 03:49 PM   #127
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The drills show their athletic abilities, how are they on their feet, can they turn their hips and run, explosiveness, power, and that SHOULD be put along with game tape and help you project what they will be able to do.

If you have two guys evenly matched by watching game tape, then at the combine, you find one guys is lighter on his feet or has more explosiveness, then that would tip your evaluation toward the better athlete.

That is not how it works. Look at the game tape of Dontrai Poe and tell me he is a top ten pick. Now he does look like the 6th pick of the draft at the combine.
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Old 02-26-2013, 03:50 PM   #128
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It's estimated. Once they run at the combine, their average time is posted in the combine section, same thing goes for Pro Day.
Ok. I wonder where the other times come from, the school?
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Old 02-26-2013, 11:03 PM   #129
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Breaking news: The NFL is a sport AND a business.
duh? What is the point you're trying to make?
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Old 02-27-2013, 02:46 PM   #130
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That is not how it works. Look at the game tape of Dontrai Poe and tell me he is a top ten pick. Now he does look like the 6th pick of the draft at the combine.
What I meant is that is what a smart staff would do . . . .


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Old 02-28-2013, 12:25 PM   #131
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Other than Al Wilson's 4.56 40, his numbers are pretty comparable to Te'o. Is .26 really a huge difference?

Teo Wilson
Vertical 33 33
Broad 113 116
3 cone 7.13 7.31
20Y Shuttle 4.27 4.25
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Old 02-28-2013, 12:52 PM   #132
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Ok. I wonder where the other times come from, the school?
Not sure. The school probably supplies the the information when it is posted to the site 2 years prior to their expected draft.

Sometimes they lie too.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:07 PM   #133
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Other than Al Wilson's 4.56 40, his numbers are pretty comparable to Te'o. Is .26 really a huge difference?

Teo Wilson
Vertical 33 33
Broad 113 116
3 cone 7.13 7.31
20Y Shuttle 4.27 4.25
The really big difference between the two is that you could see Al Wilson's girlfriends.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:23 PM   #134
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I'd like to see them do these drills in pads as well. Compare the times with and without pads. It would be real interesting to see how some of the track guys fare then.

btw, is the league still going through with forcing players to wear knee and thigh pads again? If so, this could get interesting.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:54 PM   #135
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I'd like to see them do these drills in pads as well. Compare the times with and without pads. It would be real interesting to see how some of the track guys fare then.

btw, is the league still going through with forcing players to wear knee and thigh pads again? If so, this could get interesting.
Right, if the point is to see who measures best at playing football, wouldn't you want to see which ones can seamlessly overcome obstacles such as full pads the best?
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Old 03-26-2013, 12:28 PM   #136
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Te'o runs unofficial 40 in 4.71 at pro day.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/sto...-irish-pro-day
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Old 03-26-2013, 12:38 PM   #137
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NFL | Manti Te'o runs at Pro Day
Tue, 26 Mar 2013 08:59:27 -0700


Notre Dame LB Manti Te'o registered an unofficial 4.75-second 40-yard dash at his Pro Day Tuesday, March 26. Another scout had him at 4.72 seconds.


Well which one was it?
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Old 03-26-2013, 12:43 PM   #138
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Doesnt really matter. It isnt going to make a difference to scouts who already have their evaluations of him.
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Old 03-26-2013, 03:19 PM   #139
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i would really like it if he fell to our 2nd pick.
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Old 03-26-2013, 03:22 PM   #140
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Dont hold your breath. Will probably be a early to mid second at worst.
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Old 03-26-2013, 04:21 PM   #141
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more than likely he's a mid first now. but if he did fall i'd love it.
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Old 03-26-2013, 04:25 PM   #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiling Assassin27 View Post
Other than Al Wilson's 4.56 40, his numbers are pretty comparable to Te'o. Is .26 really a huge difference?

Teo Wilson
Vertical 33 33
Broad 113 116
3 cone 7.13 7.31
20Y Shuttle 4.27 4.25
A quarter of a second is a pretty huge deal in the 40 yard dash.

that doesn't mean we shouldn't seriously look at T'eo.
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Old 03-26-2013, 04:37 PM   #143
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It wouldn't surprise me in the least bit if Teo fell to 28 and we pulled the trigger
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Old 03-26-2013, 04:44 PM   #144
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4.8+ is slow man, in fact 4.8 is not just slow at the NFL level, its slow at the collegiate level, i played linebacker in highschool and ran under a 4.8 with pads on.

Its one thing to not be a 4.5 guy, its another thing to be unable to break 4.8. He's not that big, he doesn't look that strong, he's going to get mauled on the interior.

No. He is not 1st round material, I'm not sure i'd take him in the second either. He's not starter talent, and you shoot for starters in rounds 1 and 2. Period.
That is my question. I dont want in first round but if he just starts free falling to the point that he is there at the end of the 2nd, do we take him?
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Old 03-26-2013, 04:57 PM   #145
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They play different positions but Terrell Suggs ran a 4.84 at his pro day which is considered slow for an edge rusher or Rush OLB... Game speed and instincts are phenomenal.

Jon Beason was a damn good Mike until injuries forced him off the field, he ran a 4.72 and is considerably smaller than Teo.

The problem I have with drafting Teo is he just wouldn't see the field enough. We play in the Nickel a lot. Who are you going to take off the field? Woodyard? Certainly not Von. So in the Nickel he probably doesn't see the field. We are better off going CB, S, DE or DT. Even TE or RB would make more sense.
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Old 03-26-2013, 07:05 PM   #146
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more than likely he's a mid first now. but if he did fall i'd love it.
Teo is likely not going to be seeing the field on third downs. Taking him in the mid first round is pretty high for a player like that.
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Old 03-26-2013, 07:20 PM   #147
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Inside Linebacker: The CAV model for inside linebackers also did a poor job at predicting linebackers success, yet somehow it found 40-yard dash to be significant, as did the bizarre model predicting draft pick.

Pick = -35304.72*40-yard dash +9873.35*40-yard dash^2 -775.74*40-yard dash^3 +133435.6

It isn’t the friendliest looking model, but there it is with respective p-values of 0.024, 0.025, 0.025, and 0.023, and adjusted R^2 of 0.11, and a MSE of 60.48. Kevin said it best in his original post with, “These combine measurements simply do not do a good job of predicting performance for linebackers.” Effectively, the only thing that can be taken from this model is that there is much more that makes a successful linebacker than the combine is able to measure, though speed may have a small say in it.



http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...nse/#more-4196
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Old 03-26-2013, 07:37 PM   #148
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Quote:
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Inside Linebacker: The CAV model for inside linebackers also did a poor job at predicting linebackers success, yet somehow it found 40-yard dash to be significant, as did the bizarre model predicting draft pick.

Pick = -35304.72*40-yard dash +9873.35*40-yard dash^2 -775.74*40-yard dash^3 +133435.6

It isn’t the friendliest looking model, but there it is with respective p-values of 0.024, 0.025, 0.025, and 0.023, and adjusted R^2 of 0.11, and a MSE of 60.48. Kevin said it best in his original post with, “These combine measurements simply do not do a good job of predicting performance for linebackers.” Effectively, the only thing that can be taken from this model is that there is much more that makes a successful linebacker than the combine is able to measure, though speed may have a small say in it.



http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...nse/#more-4196
The cav model prediction algorithm for ILB doesn't allow for high performers, a player setting a record for 40 yard time at the combine running a 4.20 would be expected to have an AV of 4.3, DJ Williams for example had an AV around 7 on average. An ILB who runs a 4.40 which would be an impressive time for a RB or WR would be expected to have an AV of 3 which is about the level of what Tony Carter and Mitch Unrein each did last season. For a LB who has the type of impact of Patrick Willis to fit the model he would have to run a 3.4 40 yard time, for reference a 3.4 40 yard time corresponds to a 9.28 second 100 meter sprint time, or if you ran it without having to start from stationary every 40 yards, about 8.4 seconds.
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