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Old 02-18-2013, 07:50 AM   #126
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While the lead theory is interesting and may lend some insight to behavior, it can't necessarily be used that way and still be considered a scientific study. It's pure correlation. Unless an increase in lead can be proven, somehow, to make a criminal out of someone that wasn't otherwise a criminal, it's not scientific. The scientific method exists for a reason and there is no control in these studies.

Also, if we're to believe that lead is the culprit for crime and it's based on a 17 year (17 on the chart, 23 in the text) lag, you can't use that to explain why some demographics are huuuuuuugely disproportionately responsible for crime. The crime rate in 17-23 year olds is always found to be higher than that of older people. How can you explain that if it's a chemical reaction?

So it could have an impact just as there likely is a such thing as attention deficit disorder. The difference is some people will feel the struggles of a child with ADD and give up while some people will work harder to overcome the disability and succeed. There is still other factors - even if you consider a predisposition to being a turd.
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Old 02-18-2013, 07:52 AM   #127
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Good fathers help with homework, attend athletic contests, listen to their children, but most important, good fathers guide the moral education of their children. In the Bible, when Moses had just given Ten Commandments to the people of Israel, he said: "And these words shall be in thine heart, and thou shalt teach them diligently unto thy children." Today Robert Coles points out in his book, The Moral Intelligence of Children: "The most persuasive moral teaching we adults do is by example: the witness of our lives, our ways of being with others."

Just a glance at statistics tells us that a near majority of American children are learning the lessons of a father's abandonment, when they desperately need the lessons of a father's love.

In the last several months, we have heard horrifying stories of children shooting classmates andclassrooms. And one of the teens held for schoolyard murder had written in a journal entry: "No one ever truly loved me. No one ever truly cared about me."


-- Vice President Al Gore 6/15/98

http://clinton2.nara.gov/WH/EOP/OVP/.../fatherhd.html
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Old 02-18-2013, 08:17 AM   #128
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Obama and Biden at the fatherhood townhall, June 2009

THE PRESIDENT: Absolutely. Absolutely. I think this is really important to emphasize -- 23 percent of young people are growing up without fathers. Now, in the African American community, it's close to 50 percent, maybe a little over, depending on the statistics that you look at. So there is a real crisis going on the African American community on this issue, but it is a more pervasive issue.

And I just went to a wonderful organization called Year Up that has young people who are getting trained after high school, most of them, on specific job-training skills, computer skills, but also how to conduct themselves in an office and write an email, et cetera. And it was wonderful talking to these young people. But one of the things I said specifically to the young men is that you can't use anything as an excuse not to be involved with your children. Because kids -- they won't judge you based on whether you're wealthy or poor. They will judge you if you are abusive to their mother. They will judge you in terms of you not showing up when they need you. That's what makes a difference.

And kids will respect their fathers if their fathers are showing kindness and are modeling -- that they're working hard and trying to do what's right for their families. And kids will understand that sometimes families fall on hard times. They get that. Joe Biden is here -- and, Joe, actually, I want to talk to you, because you had a terrific relationship with your dad, but there was a time where your dad fell on some hard times, and yet you still talk about him all the time as the most important guiding role model in your life.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Well, Mr. President, I think it's great what you're doing, by the way. This is a big deal. Folks, you know, the President said sometimes fathers make mistakes, and I've made my share. But one thing my father told me -- there's a mistake a father should never make, and that is communicating to his child there's anything other than total unconditional love. If there's total unconditional love -- that includes discipline -- but if there's total unconditional love, it doesn't matter whether you're rich or poor, whether or not you're a real smart dad or you're not such a smart dad, whether you're handsome or you're not so -- it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. Kids need love.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_...ood-Town-Hall/
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Old 02-18-2013, 08:28 AM   #129
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I wonder why a fatherless black man who was raised by his grandparents wants to convince a white, Christian populace that he believes in the nuclear family. It's almost like he wants their approval or something.

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Do you really need statistics to understand what the value of a good father is to his son?
When the data is against you, best to retreat to a data-less realm.
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Old 02-18-2013, 08:31 AM   #130
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I wonder why a fatherless black man who was raised by his grandparents wants to convince a white, Christian populace that he believes in the nuclear family. It's almost like he wants their approval or something.
Lol. I wonder if he let his kids in on the joke.

"Look kids, I don't really believe that stuff I said about being a father. I'm just pandering to crackers for their votes."
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Old 02-18-2013, 08:34 AM   #131
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I wonder why a fatherless black man who was raised by his grandparents wants to convince a white, Christian populace that he believes in the nuclear family. It's almost like he wants their approval or something.



When the data is against you, best to retreat to a data-less realm.
You missed the blame Bush part. It goes:

1. But, Bush
2. Declare Racism
3. Declare Hompophobia
4. Personal insult
5. Post nonsense graph and/or cartoon
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:02 AM   #132
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Global carbon emissions go up, percapita violent crime rates go down. Can't explain that.
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:14 AM   #133
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What about dead beat dads who beat their children?
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:15 AM   #134
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What about dead beat dads who beat their children?
What about them?
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:18 AM   #135
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What about them?
Not necessarily good role models for kids.
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:25 AM   #136
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Not necessarily good role models for kids.
Deadbeat:

1. One who does not pay one's debts.
2. A lazy person; a loafer.

Who beat their children:

I assume you are talking about physical abuse, and not competition.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and make the claim that nobody thinks the combination of the above would make a good role model for kids.
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:29 AM   #137
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Yes, and I'm thinking can play a role in deviancy of children.
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:44 AM   #138
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Yes, and I'm thinking can play a role in deviancy of children.
So basically the lack of a responsible father can be harmful to children. Who knew?
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:49 AM   #139
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When the data is against you, best to retreat to a data-less realm.
My guess is your relationship with your father wasn't so good if you don't understand the value of a good father.

Good dad=priceless!
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:54 AM   #140
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Yes yes, retreat to your youtube videos. I was just curious upon what evidence you formed your opinion - now I know. The murky combination of rage and paranoia.
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:56 AM   #141
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So basically the lack of a responsible father can be harmful to children. Who knew?


Req is such a ****up, he can't even be an annoying a-hole without screwing up. And he's a b****, to boot.
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Old 02-18-2013, 11:05 AM   #142
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While the lead theory is interesting and may lend some insight to behavior, it can't necessarily be used that way and still be considered a scientific study. It's pure correlation. Unless an increase in lead can be proven, somehow, to make a criminal out of someone that wasn't otherwise a criminal, it's not scientific. The scientific method exists for a reason and there is no control in these studies.

Also, if we're to believe that lead is the culprit for crime and it's based on a 17 year (17 on the chart, 23 in the text) lag, you can't use that to explain why some demographics are huuuuuuugely disproportionately responsible for crime. The crime rate in 17-23 year olds is always found to be higher than that of older people. How can you explain that if it's a chemical reaction?

So it could have an impact just as there likely is a such thing as attention deficit disorder. The difference is some people will feel the struggles of a child with ADD and give up while some people will work harder to overcome the disability and succeed. There is still other factors - even if you consider a predisposition to being a turd.
Scientists try to tease our causation from correlation, relying on what the data explains best, controlling for factors when they can, and coming up with the best explanation possible...



But you're right, it's not perfect, and there is no singular reason for crime. There are millions.
Parental involvement, education, community involvement, gun control, incarceration rates, drug control, mental health services, income inequality, access to birth control, etc.

However, despite the best efforts of Jim Manzi (expert statistician and conservative, who found that the above could explain up to 20 percent of the following, but failed to replicate those results based on further evidence) no combination of the known crime correlates could explain this:



Steven Levitt (of Freakonomics fame) pleased many liberals, including me, when he published data that showed a probable link between abortion and the drop in crime, which wasn't perfect but explained the phenomenon better than anything else at the time.

That's what I believed up until last month. Call me a flip flopper, but my beliefs change based on evidence.

Cities, states, and countries all over the world have seen a similar rise and decline. The similarity they all share? Not abortion services, not single motherhood, not black youths - just the rise and fall of leaded gasoline, which can explain up to 90% of the crime wave over the late 20th century.
www.nber.org/papers/w13097

The evidence goes further than the national, state, and city level - follow-up studies have found it on the individual level. Childhood blood lead levels are consistently associated with arrest rates for violent crimes.
http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/...l.pmed.0050101

All that leaded smog didn't completely go away, it's still in our soil - especially around inner-cities where traffic was worst. It's still in old houses, it's especially in old windows.

If you're not convinced, just wait. Western Europe used leaded gasoline longer, so we can expect crime to drop there in the next 20 years, with a drastic drop over the next 10. In Russia, the drop should happen a little later, since the Soviets used leaded gasoline longer. We should see the beginnings of a crime decrease in Latin America (they need it) around 2018, since they used leaded gasoline until 1995.

http://ricknevin.com/uploads/The_Ans..._Poisoning.pdf

If crime decreases don't happen in the countries above, we can label the theory false or flawed.



Regardless, this is all much more interesting to me than Ted Nugent's opinions or txtebow's racial stereotypes.

Last edited by Blart; 02-18-2013 at 11:51 AM..
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Old 02-18-2013, 12:55 PM   #143
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So basically the lack of a responsible father can be harmful to children. Who knew?
That One Guy didn't. He's a bad man.
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Old 02-18-2013, 05:52 PM   #144
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not lookin' very good for you right now, doc. but please, post more youtube videos and zingers.
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Old 02-18-2013, 07:06 PM   #145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blart View Post
Scientists try to tease our causation from correlation, relying on what the data explains best, controlling for factors when they can, and coming up with the best explanation possible...



But you're right, it's not perfect, and there is no singular reason for crime. There are millions.
Parental involvement, education, community involvement, gun control, incarceration rates, drug control, mental health services, income inequality, access to birth control, etc.

However, despite the best efforts of Jim Manzi (expert statistician and conservative, who found that the above could explain up to 20 percent of the following, but failed to replicate those results based on further evidence) no combination of the known crime correlates could explain this:



Steven Levitt (of Freakonomics fame) pleased many liberals, including me, when he published data that showed a probable link between abortion and the drop in crime, which wasn't perfect but explained the phenomenon better than anything else at the time.

That's what I believed up until last month. Call me a flip flopper, but my beliefs change based on evidence.

Cities, states, and countries all over the world have seen a similar rise and decline. The similarity they all share? Not abortion services, not single motherhood, not black youths - just the rise and fall of leaded gasoline, which can explain up to 90% of the crime wave over the late 20th century.
www.nber.org/papers/w13097

The evidence goes further than the national, state, and city level - follow-up studies have found it on the individual level. Childhood blood lead levels are consistently associated with arrest rates for violent crimes.
http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/...l.pmed.0050101

All that leaded smog didn't completely go away, it's still in our soil - especially around inner-cities where traffic was worst. It's still in old houses, it's especially in old windows.

If you're not convinced, just wait. Western Europe used leaded gasoline longer, so we can expect crime to drop there in the next 20 years, with a drastic drop over the next 10. In Russia, the drop should happen a little later, since the Soviets used leaded gasoline longer. We should see the beginnings of a crime decrease in Latin America (they need it) around 2018, since they used leaded gasoline until 1995.

http://ricknevin.com/uploads/The_Ans..._Poisoning.pdf

If crime decreases don't happen in the countries above, we can label the theory false or flawed.



Regardless, this is all much more interesting to me than Ted Nugent's opinions or txtebow's racial stereotypes.
I don't disagree with anything you've said and find it quite interesting, to be honest. It's just, at best, a predisposition to these problems. To dismiss what some of the others introduce (socioeconomics or fatherhood, for example) because you found a correlation is a bit overly simplistic. Within the impacted people, some will turn to crime and some won't. So for you to dismiss what Doc is saying outright because you have charts that show general trends is just as ignorant as him blindly dismissing what you say because he might have more localized trends. Heck, even if what he's saying is accurate, it's merely another predisposition.

That's basically what I'm saying. It's not any one thing so anyone arguing that they know the one factor is doing so out of a blind debate rather than a true discussion. And yes, I know you just stated above (and stated before) that lead isn't the end all for whether someone's destined to be a criminal or not but I just think it needed more emphasis.

PS: Req is still an annoying little b****.
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Old 02-19-2013, 06:38 AM   #146
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I loved Obama's Father's day sermon. Predictably it angered a black liberal professor, specifically because the speech violated the first commandment of Liberalism: Thou shalt not be personally responsible for anything.
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Old 02-19-2013, 06:42 AM   #147
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not lookin' very good for you right now, doc. but please, post more youtube videos and zingers.
put the ganja down...and then come back after rehab and read this thread again...
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:00 AM   #148
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The blarts and all the b****es here can make all the excuses they want. When our President stands up and says dads need to stop abandoning their children you think that would speak for itself.

When I have a weak male Buck aka Male Goat we lop his nuts off so he can't breed. Just three seconds and the gene pool improves.

It's too bad we can do that to the b****es in America who don't take care of their first kid. They should never be allowed to have a second!

Excuses are most certainly like aholes.

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Old 02-19-2013, 10:11 AM   #149
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Due to some interesting report this post emails from this thread, I am feeling compelled to post this, yet again, as a reminder about this particular subforum:

Goooo "team that reflects my political ideology!" WARNING! This is a loosely moderated forum. Frankly, moderating political discussions is about as fun as sitting in on Raider court proceedings.

This is the descriptor for the WRP forum. This forum is loosely moderated BECAUSE it is a religion and politics subforum. The mods will not handhold certain posters because other posters are being mean to them.

Which brings me to another reminder for certain posters, from the OM Guidelines:

Moderators are volunteers who have demonstrated a love for the Denver Broncos, as well as the Orange Mane community at large. They are tasked with being the standard bearers of this community – though they are all fallible. The mods are just people who love the Broncos, love this discussion forum, and are trying to do the best they can with the tools they have. If you never have anything nice to say about a mod, then you probably shouldn’t say anything at all – and frankly, you might consider finding another community where you think the mods and guidelines are more to your liking. This forum is not going to tolerate the faithful servants of this forum being publically ridiculed for their service any more than it will tolerate the posters being punished arbitrarily. We strive for balance in everything we do – and most of the time, we succeed (nobody is perfect).

We now go back to your regularly scheduled slap fight.

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Old 02-19-2013, 10:11 AM   #150
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Due to some interesting report this post emails from this thread, I am feeling compelled to post this, yet again, as a reminder about this particular subforum:

Goooo "team that reflects my political ideology!" WARNING! This is a loosely moderated forum. Frankly, moderating political discussions is about as fun as sitting in on Raider court proceedings.

This is the descriptor for the WRP forum. This forum is loosely moderated BECAUSE it is a religion and politics subforum. The mods will not handhold certain posters because other posters are being mean to them.

Which brings me to another reminder for certain posters, from the OM Guidelines:

Moderators are volunteers who have demonstrated a love for the Denver Broncos, as well as the Orange Mane community at large. They are tasked with being the standard bearers of this community – though they are all fallible. The mods are just people who love the Broncos, love this discussion forum, and are trying to do the best they can with the tools they have. If you never have anything nice to say about a mod, then you probably shouldn’t say anything at all – and frankly, you might consider finding another community where you think the mods and guidelines are more to your liking. This forum is not going to tolerate the faithful servants of this forum being publically ridiculed for their service any more than it will tolerate the posters being punished arbitrarily. We strive for balance in everything we do – and most of the time, we succeed (nobody is perfect).

We now go back to your regularly scheduled slap fight.

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