Football Gameplan's 2013 NFL Mock Draft Video - January (2 rounds)

[pricejj]

Originally Posted by Bmore Manning

This kid is a flat out stud. In our scheme, having two big two gapping DTs, Brown would excel. He would be a steal if he lasts until the our pick in the second. He could play OLB, that doesn't mean it's the only place he can play. Again he is scheme versatile to any LB spot on a 4-3, and ILB in a 3-4. He will gain weight in the pros, again he plays very much like a 250 pound LB.

Trevethan played OLB in college..Woodyard at SS, and LB. they don't play the same as Brown.

I liked Lavonte David a lot better at #58 last year...so picking Brown at #58 this year would make me cringe. Arthur Brown is okay, but there are deficiencies in his game, especially in creating no gain/TFL's in run support. He isn't as technically sound as you would expect.

I wouldn't hate if the Broncos picked him at #58, , and he probably could put an additional 5-10 pounds on his smallish frame without losing much speed, though his lower body is pretty small. In reality, the Broncos could do much worse than picking Arthur Brown at #58. I find myself dreaming of the player he could be, rather than being satisfied with the player he actually is.

[Bmore Manning]

Originally Posted by pricejj

I liked Lavonte David a lot better at #58 last year...so picking Brown at #58 this year would make me cringe. Arthur Brown is okay, but there are deficiencies in his game, especially in creating no gain/TFL's in run support. He isn't as technically sound as you would expect.

I wouldn't hate if the Broncos picked him at #58, , and he probably could put an additional 5-10 pounds on his smallish frame without losing much speed, though his lower body is pretty small. In reality, the Broncos could do much worse than picking Arthur Brown at #58. I find myself dreaming of the player he could be, rather than being satisfied with the player he actually is.

Can you please stop comparing his every game to that of Lavonte David. I used to rave about Lavonte David on the Colts forum as a player they needed to really impact the LB core. But he wouldn't be playing MLB there, or here! They don't have the same game to a T, they are both physical and make plays all over the field sideline to sideline, but they aren't an exact replica. David was and is a WLB. Brown has much more flexibility. This is my only issue with you, you take a stand about a player, say he's only a fit for x team in x position, when x position isn't exactly where he belongs. You either read a report that says he should play OLB, or see him listed there on Walter Foot Ball, because there's no way you watched him and were so narrow minded.

[Requiem]

I would be surprised if Arthur Brown makes it to #58. He has put on a clinic the past two seasons at K-State and showed why he was one of the best recruits in the nation. I know SoCal is sad it didn't pan out for him at the U. He has some versatility and can play MIKE or WILL. He is basically the same size as Jon Beason was coming out of school and that didn't stop John Fox from plugging him in on the inside.

T'eo, Ogletree and Minter are the top three ILB on most people's boards. At OLB, you have guys like Jarvis Jones and Barkevious Mingo (DE 4-3) who are going to get extensive looks by 3-4 teams who want edge rushers. For 4-3 teams, you basically get your choice of Arthur Brown (if you want him as a WILL), Khaseem Greene or Zavier Gooden for "better" prospects there after.

My guess is that T'eo, Minter, Ogletree, Jones and Mingo all go in the first round. I don't think Gooden is a second round guy, but if he runs sub 4.45 at the combine, he could fly up boards. As a player I think his overall value is in the third round. Basically, it will come down to Brown/Greene for most teams looking at a linebacker in the second round. I don't think either of them last to #58, but we still have the combine and pro days to sort through before we get a more realistic idea of draft placement.

I think Brown is going to be a very productive NFL player. If Mays/Williams are both released, getting a LB early is going to HAVE to happen. I hope we do, because I can't think of two better coaches in John Fox and Jack Del Rio to help develop a top talent at the position.

[Mediator12]

The whole LB fascination with getting one early has to stop. Ther are real good LB's out there who are NOT going to be day one or early day two picks. I would love to try and get Danell Ellerbe from BAL and let him roam the Mike from FA. I loved him coming out and he is going to be the forgotten FA in BAL I think, Bmore could add to that as I know he has seen him play there.

Also, the prototypical size hoopla has got to go. For every guy who actually fits those characteristics, there are 4 guys who don't who get the job done on Sundays. Size is the Least correlating variable in determining NFL success, despite the media's obsession with it, because its NOT subjective.

And, you can get all pro caliber LB's from the middle rounds of the draft. Heck some recent pro bowlers have been UDFA's. LB is fading in todya's College game with spread offenses. It also means there value is diminishing in today's NFL draft. CB and Safety are higher than ever, but LB, unless you are a 3-4 Rush LB is not what it once was. Especially with the amount of 3-4 defenses now outnumbering 4-3.

[Rascal]

Name some LBs who will be available late day 2 who will have success in the NFL?

I'm also not sure I agree with you about the prototypical size disagreement. I looked up every starting MLB in a 4-3 and the average size was 245 lbs and 73.58" with standard deviations of 8 lbs and 1.5" courtesey of excel. I don't have the historical information to compare this too, but I don't think its a stretch to assume that they aren't getting smaller.

[Requiem]

Originally Posted by Mediator12

The whole LB fascination with getting one early has to stop. Ther are real good LB's out there who are NOT going to be day one or early day two picks. I would love to try and get Danell Ellerbe from BAL and let him roam the Mike from FA. I loved him coming out and he is going to be the forgotten FA in BAL I think, Bmore could add to that as I know he has seen him play there.

Also, the prototypical size hoopla has got to go. For every guy who actually fits those characteristics, there are 4 guys who don't who get the job done on Sundays. Size is the Least correlating variable in determining NFL success, despite the media's obsession with it, because its NOT subjective.

And, you can get all pro caliber LB's from the middle rounds of the draft. Heck some recent pro bowlers have been UDFA's. LB is fading in todya's College game with spread offenses. It also means there value is diminishing in today's NFL draft. CB and Safety are higher than ever, but LB, unless you are a 3-4 Rush LB is not what it once was. Especially with the amount of 3-4 defenses now outnumbering 4-3.

I'm not saying we have to get one early, but the guys I mentioned outside of Gooden are all going to be Top 64 selections. I think that is a given. I even dimissed some of the chatter (regarding Brown not being big enough for MIKE) by comparison of Jon Beason.

I'm not saying we can't find a guy later one who would be a scheme fit and produce. I think there are a lot of interesting prospects in the 3-5 range that can come in and be starters. The problem is, a lot of those guys (that I like) have big durability concerns, especially the MIKE's in this class: Mauti, Skov, Cain and Taylor.

I think Cain is going to surprise a lot of people. He might be small, but the guy has instincts, great form and has some of the best side to side and downhill ability of any linebacker in this class. I think Gerald Hodges would be a great selection for us and I seem him going in the third round or so. Rev would probably love that selection. I should be quiet about players though. . . don't want to get guys stolen in the OM Draft.

Thanks for bringing up the discussion about the value -- I think the Broncos FO may share your views considering where they have gotten their LBers the past two drafts (3rd, 5th or 6th for Trevathan and UDFA for Johnson). All I'm saying is that I would be for the right guy at LB early on if that player seems like a better value to me than who else is there.

[Rascal]

Also, has Brown been officially measured? I've watched some tape and he has good straightaway speed, but his lateral quickness/change of direction causes some concern. He also isn't what I would consider a good thumper. He may grow into that role, but at this point I would consider that a weakness.

I think it also depends on what the team decides to do with Wolfe (stay outside or jump inside) that will have an impact on who plays MLB.

[Requiem]

He was at Mobile, but I didn't see an official measurement for height and weight on NFLDraftCountdown. Everywhere else has him at 6'1 - 230. I like him because he makes the smart plays, has great instincts and from coach quotes, he loves to spend time in the film room and wants to get better. Don't think you could ask for much more in a prospect.

[Rascal]

Originally Posted by Requiem

He was at Mobile, but I didn't see an official measurement for height and weight on NFLDraftCountdown. Everywhere else has him at 6'1 - 230. I like him because he makes the smart plays, has great instincts and from coach quotes, he loves to spend time in the film room and wants to get better. Don't think you could ask for much more in a prospect.

I was just pointing out some areas of concern I have with him. He may be a good LB in the NFL, but those are the things I noticed in my watching of k-state this year.

I'm also doubting he gets out of the top 45, so unless we take him at #28 (or trade down) he won't be a Bronco.

[Mediator12]

Originally Posted by Rascal

Name some LBs who will be available late day 2 who will have success in the NFL?

I'm also not sure I agree with you about the prototypical size disagreement. I looked up every starting MLB in a 4-3 and the average size was 245 lbs and 6'2" with standard deviations of 8 lbs and 1.5" courtesey of excel. I don't have the historical information to compare this too, but I don't think its a stretch to assume that they aren't getting smaller.

I can name about 4 I think will be ok, but I'll pm you before the OM draft

These are some guys who are Playing LB right now who are later draft picks and are successful:

Navorro Bowman 3rd round SF, ALL Pro
KJ Wright Miss St. 4th round SEA, Probowler
Justin Houston Georgia 3rd rounder KC
Nigel Bradham FSU 4th rounder BUF
Daryl Sharpton theU 4th rounder HOU
Kavell Connor Clemson 7th rounder INDY
Arthur Moats JMU 6th rounder BUF

All are smaller than prototypical size and all were starting last year. That does not include the Colts leading tackler Jerrell Freeman who took over for Connor when he was injured last year. He was a UDFA and led the team in tackles at 6'0 and 234. He played better than his numbers too.

The prototypical guys with talent get drafted early. The guys who are not prototypical but can really play and contribute get drafted 3-7.

[Rascal]

Originally Posted by Mediator12

I can name about 4 I think will be ok, but I'll pm you before the OM draft

These are some guys who are Playing LB right now who are later draft picks and are successful:

Navorro Bowman 3rd round SF, ALL Pro (play a 3-4)
KJ Wright Miss St. 4th round SEA, Probowler - OLB
Justin Houston Georgia 3rd rounder KC
Nigel Bradham FSU 4th rounder BUF
Daryl Sharpton theU 4th rounder HOU
Kavell Connor Clemson 7th rounder INDY
Arthur Moats JMU 6th rounder BUF

All are smaller than prototypical size and all were starting last year. That does not include the Colts leading tackler Jerrell Freeman who took over for Connor when he was injured last year. He was a UDFA and led the team in tackles at 6'0 and 234. He played better than his numbers too.

The prototypical guys with talent get drafted early. The guys who are not prototypical but can really play and contribute get drafted 3-7.

I never said you couldn't get guys later in the draft. What I'm saying is that the prototypical size you see at MLB hasn't changed and most MLB fit that.

You said, "Also, the prototypical size hoopla has got to go. For every guy who actually fits those characteristics, there are 4 guys who don't who get the job done on Sundays." I think we both know you were exaggerating.

Looking at the names you provided:

Navorro Bowman 3rd round SF, ALL Pro (play a 3-4 and he is 6'0 and 242)
KJ Wright Miss St. 4th round SEA, Probowler - (OLB who is 6'4 and 246)
Justin Houston Georgia 3rd rounder KC (play a 3-4 and is 6'3" and 258)
Nigel Bradham FSU 4th rounder BUF - (OLB who is 6'2 and 240.)
Daryl Sharpton theU 4th rounder HOU (play a 3-4 and 5'11 and 234)
Kavell Connor Clemson 7th rounder INDY (again play a 3-4 and 6'0 and 243)
Arthur Moats JMU 6th rounder BUF - (OLB who is 6'2 and 250)

Even the players you mention fall into that typical mold (as that groups average height/weight is 73.42" and 244.7 lbs. The lone example in your list is Daryl Sharpton as he is shorter/lighter than the standard deviation I defined above and he plays in a 3-4.

BTW, my math sucked on the previous....the average height for starting 4-3 MLB is 73.57". I'll correct it.

[Mediator12]

Originally Posted by Rascal

I never said you couldn't get guys later in the draft. What I'm saying is that the prototypical size you see at MLB hasn't changed and most MLB fit that.

You said, "Also, the prototypical size hoopla has got to go. For every guy who actually fits those characteristics, there are 4 guys who don't who get the job done on Sundays." I think we both know you were exaggerating.

Looking at the names you provided:

Navorro Bowman 3rd round SF, ALL Pro (play a 3-4 and he is 6'0 and 242)
KJ Wright Miss St. 4th round SEA, Probowler - (OLB who is 6'4 and 246)
Justin Houston Georgia 3rd rounder KC (play a 3-4 and is 6'3" and 258)
Nigel Bradham FSU 4th rounder BUF - (OLB who is 6'2 and 240.)
Daryl Sharpton theU 4th rounder HOU (play a 3-4 and 5'11 and 234)
Kavell Connor Clemson 7th rounder INDY (again play a 3-4 and 6'0 and 243)
Arthur Moats JMU 6th rounder BUF - (OLB who is 6'2 and 250)

Even the players you mention fall into that typical mold (as that groups average height/weight is 73.42" and 244.7 lbs.

BTW, my math sucked on the previous....the average height for starting 4-3 MLB is 73.57". I'll correct it.

They put the weight on later. Most of those guys coming out were in the 230-245 range. None have done the NFL weight gain programs yet, and some of them are damn small. And, some of their NFL listed heights are taller than their combine numbers.

Also, DEN plays a huge DT scheme up front. The MLB does not have to be 6'4 and 255. Especially when they play nickel 55% of the time. The nickel LB will get more snaps than a 2 down thumper will. And why Does DEN have to have one MLB and not a 2 down thumper and a nickel LB. LB's are cheap comparatively to other Defensive positions. As for exaggerating, maybe with 2 down MLB's, but not any other position.

[pricejj]

Originally Posted by Bmore Manning

Can you please stop comparing his every game to that of Lavonte David. I used to rave about Lavonte David on the Colts forum as a player they needed to really impact the LB core. But he wouldn't be playing MLB there, or here! They don't have the same game to a T, they are both physical and make plays all over the field sideline to sideline, but they aren't an exact replica. David was and is a WLB. Brown has much more flexibility. This is my only issue with you, you take a stand about a player, say he's only a fit for x team in x position, when x position isn't exactly where he belongs. You either read a report that says he should play OLB, or see him listed there on Walter Foot Ball, because there's no way you watched him and were so narrow minded.

Again...lame insults. All I'm going off is what I've seen on video.

Arthur Brown is the same size as Vilma and Beason. Size with him isn't an issue. He just has too many false steps, gets blocked out of plays easily at times, and sometimes lets his feet run himself out of plays. It's somewhat difficult to envision him as an NFL MIKE. He is a playmaker, and he runs all over the place (as you've noticed). I'm looking at finer points to his game...and I've seen better the last couple years.

Compare him to a guy like Bobby Wagner and it's not even close. False-steps, and inability to shed blocks is my biggest issue with Arthur Brown. He's just not great at stopping runs for minimal gains. There is a reason he'll still be available towards the end of the 2nd round. If he could shed blocks similar to other players close to his size (Beason, Vilma, Wagner, David), he would generate more interest from me.

Inability to shed blocks is why DJ Williams could never play MLB. Some guys are just much better in space (at WILL), I think Brown is one of them.

[Rascal]

Originally Posted by Mediator12

They put the weight on later. Most of those guys coming out were in the 230-245 range. None have done the NFL weight gain programs yet, and some of them are damn small. And, some of their NFL listed heights are taller than their combine numbers.

Also, DEN plays a huge DT scheme up front. The MLB does not have to be 6'4 and 255. Especially when they play nickel 55% of the time. The nickel LB will get more snaps than a 2 down thumper will. And why Does DEN have to have one MLB and not a 2 down thumper and a nickel LB. LB's are cheap comparatively to other Defensive positions. As for exaggerating, maybe with 2 down MLB's, but not any other position.

I can only use the numbers on their teams webpage. That is what's currently reported.

Of course they don't have to be 6'4" and 255...that would fall outside the prototypical size I calculated

Fast offenses is why. Teams, i.e. Patriots/Broncos, are changing they way they play and forcing defenses to keep their personnel on the field. Maybe I'm greedy, but I want a MLB that isn't going to be so damn awful at pass defending that everytime he is on the field the QB can't hide his boner when a pass play is called.

I think we are arguing in circles.

[Mediator12]

Originally Posted by Rascal

I can only use the numbers on their teams webpage. That is what's currently reported.

Of course they don't have to be 6'4" and 255...that would fall outside the prototypical size I calculated

Fast offenses is why. Teams, i.e. Patriots/Broncos, are changing they way they play and forcing defenses to keep their personnel on the field. Maybe I'm greedy, but I want a MLB that isn't going to be so damn awful at pass defending that everytime he is on the field the QB can't hide his boner when a pass play is called.

I think we are arguing in circles.

We kind of are, but its good to argue again

It also goes without saying who are we talking about playing MLB. London Fletcher is a tiny 5'10 but 240. Ray Lewis was small coming out of MIA and got much Bigger. Jon Beason is 6'0 and 235. Curtis Lofton is 6'0 240. Daryl Washington is 6'2 230.

All I am saying is using prototypical height and weight is a crutch to watching these guys play. I seriously like 4 guys to play MLB in DEN and are 3 down guys, and not just a pass rusher like Von Miller is. These are guys who can cover and are not named Ogletree, Jones, Minter, or Te'o.

[DBroncos4life]

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...s-state-chiefs
good read.