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Old 01-15-2013, 10:44 AM   #176
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Originally Posted by Beantown Bronco View Post
Same here. This is far more fitting in the kneel down discussion. It doesn't apply here, where they actually ran a play and went with the odds. If you're stuck on baseball analogies, maybe bunting with a guy on base and no outs vs swinging away would be a better analogy.
I'd say that call was more like asking Cecil Fielder to bunt with nobody on, using his speed to get on base and seal the game.
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Old 01-15-2013, 10:47 AM   #177
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I'd say that call was more like asking Cecil Fielder to bunt with nobody on, using his speed to get on base and seal the game.
If we're being consistent, it would be someone with a 97% chance of moving the runner along....vs swinging away and having a 30-40% chance of getting on base, but a greater than 50% chance of striking out or hitting into a double play.
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Old 01-15-2013, 10:54 AM   #178
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If we're being consistent, it would be someone with a 97% chance of moving the runner along....vs swinging away and having a 30-40% chance of getting on base, but a greater than 50% chance of striking out or hitting into a double play.
I think you're only looking at run v pass (and even there I can't imagine PM having a less than 50% chance of completing that pass.)

I'm also talking about the kind of run that was called. You could've designed a run (still 97% sure to run the clock) that had a much better chance of netting 7 yards. They should've at least made an attempt to get Hillman outside in space (with 7 ytg). Maybe it's a 10% chance. But it's better than the 0% chance he had up the gut.
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Old 01-15-2013, 10:55 AM   #179
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A minute is a heckuva a long time in today's NFL...

You play the percentages or you literally try and end the game. Denver's secondary was getting torched all goddam day long against a QB known for his huge arm and long-ball. You just don't run it there -- you pass to try and end the damn game. Denver wasn't even gonna be competing at that point were it not for two return-TDs! You realize that? Baltimore was controlling the game and Denver was lucky just to have a lead of any sort. You can play the "percentages" all you want, but all signs, including the obvious fact Denver lost, should have said go for it. Nobody should have felt safe just because a bunch stats told you so. We all saw the same damn game. The safest option was for Baltimore to never see the field again. Period.
You also have to take into account where the Broncos were. Their top two RBs are out. Hillman is going down on the first touch and is not much of a pass blocker. The Ravens don't care about play action and are rushing their asses off, if not going for some kind of blitz package on nearly every play. They've shut down DT. Ravens have excellent LBs so anything short is not a gimme, and could be a disaster. It's minus zero degrees on the field and your HOF QB is not playing up to his normal level of performance. The Broncos converted 7 out of 16 third downs on the day. Plus, the coaches by now know that, for whatever reason, the team is not playing up to the level they were when they won eleven games in a row. Throw in that the refs have been ****ing you since the first kickoff. So, the cards you've been dealt all day suck, and yet you think you should go ahead and bet on the possibility of a hole card bailing you out?
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Old 01-15-2013, 11:00 AM   #180
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I think you're only looking at run v pass (and even there I can't imagine PM having a less than 50% chance of completing that pass.)
He was less than 50% on passes that went over 7 yards in the game.

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I'm also talking about the kind of run that was called. You could've designed a run (still 97% sure to run the clock) that had a much better chance of netting 7 yards. They should've at least made an attempt to get Hillman outside in space (with 7 ytg). Maybe it's a 10% chance. But it's better than the 0% chance he had up the gut.
Agreed. The constant runs up the middle sucked and they should've gotten at least a LITTLE creative. You'll get no argument from me on that one.
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Old 01-15-2013, 11:20 AM   #181
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Here is a different take maybe

With what Fox did he took the percentage of 93% and gave his defense the onus to win the game. He would not have left the offense any time to really do anything

Now with scenerio #2 you take a shot to win the game with the guy you brought in to do just that. If you fail you still have about a 90% chance to win the game and if they score you leave time for PFM to go down and kick a FG

Now we are just quibbling because as it turned out Denver had a 99% chance to win the game with Fox's scenrio
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Old 01-15-2013, 11:24 AM   #182
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Here is a different take maybe

With what Fox did he took the percentage of 93% and gave his defense the onus to win the game. He would not have left the offense any time to really do anything
The Falcons and Ravens disagree.
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Old 01-15-2013, 11:37 AM   #183
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We should have atleast passed in one of the downs and try to get a first down especially with the way our defense is playing.
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Old 01-15-2013, 11:49 AM   #184
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He (Elway) also backs him privately.
Because you know this right?.... oh wait, no you don't.

Your entire argument is unconvincing.
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Old 01-15-2013, 02:53 PM   #185
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If Fox can't find it in him to put the game and the ball in Peyton's hands to deliver the kill shot to end the game in the playoffs then WTF is he doing as HC here anyway? Was Manning brought in to manage games or to win them? If he's here to win games then give him the ****ing ball.
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Old 01-16-2013, 01:54 AM   #186
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This thread would not even exist if Manning had thrown a pick-six to end regulation. We would all be screaming at Fox for being an idiot when the game was more or less sealed.

For the record, I didn't really like three straight run plays but I wasn't that worried at the time. Our defense wasn't playing well, but I didn't think they could mess up that badly.

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If Fox can't find it in him to put the game and the ball in Peyton's hands to deliver the kill shot to end the game in the playoffs then WTF is he doing as HC here anyway? Was Manning brought in to manage games or to win them? If he's here to win games then give him the ****ing ball.
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Old 01-16-2013, 02:13 AM   #187
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Why the bunch formation though? At least spread the field and make the Defense line up in a nickel package. If they don't match up and instead stack the box, it's an easy throw, if they do match up, then you can run a draw much easier.

Everyone who buy's the line that Manning audibled into a run...he didn't have the personnel grouping on the field to do anyting but hand off.

The down to throw was on second down though. The Ravens had just spent there last timeout and there was 2:17 left with the 2 min warning coming. Play action would have worked so well in that situation. 1 first down, just 1 first down...
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Old 01-16-2013, 07:45 AM   #188
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Everyone who buy's the line that Manning audibled into a run...he didn't have the personnel grouping on the field to do anyting but hand off.
Fox already said it was his call to run and there wasn't an audible, so that's not an issue; but to say he couldn't do anything but hand off out of a bunch formation with the grouping he had is just plain wrong. As long as there is at least one eligible receiver on the field, and there were at least three, you can throw the ball.
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Old 01-16-2013, 08:15 AM   #189
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3rd and 7 and you run the ball... i cant believe some of you are defending that play. its foxball p***Y ****. you play to win the ****ing game. at worst you can roll out manning and take a shot and if its not there he slides. p***Y ball doesnt win super bowls.
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Old 01-16-2013, 09:29 AM   #190
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This thread would not even exist if Manning had thrown a pick-six to end regulation.
Yup, and it also wouldn't exist if Moore and Carter make a routine play on a long, desperation heave to Jacoby Jones.
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Old 01-16-2013, 10:17 AM   #191
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Fox is a scared coach.
There are so many chances we got to take a 10/14 point lead.
What did he do?..he kept on running the ball.
Forget about 3rd and 7..when there a turnover by Baltimore,we didn't even attempt to score.
Also.at the end of half and regulation..didn't even try for a FG.
****ing idiot
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Old 01-16-2013, 11:11 AM   #192
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Quote:
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Here is a different take maybe

With what Fox did he took the percentage of 93% and gave his defense the onus to win the game. He would not have left the offense any time to really do anything

Now with scenerio #2 you take a shot to win the game with the guy you brought in to do just that. If you fail you still have about a 90% chance to win the game and if they score you leave time for PFM to go down and kick a FG

Now we are just quibbling because as it turned out Denver had a 99% chance to win the game with Fox's scenrio
Actually, it was a 13% chance to score a TD at that time with field position and time on the clock. If we ran a pass play and it was incomplete, the Ravens chances of a touchdown was doubled to 26%.
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Old 01-16-2013, 11:38 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by Beantown Bronco View Post
He was less than 50% on passes that went over 7 yards in the game.



Agreed. The constant runs up the middle sucked and they should've gotten at least a LITTLE creative. You'll get no argument from me on that one.
No kidding. We saw in the reg season how several times that same strategy nearly backfired as teams were coming back on them and had a last gasp chance to tie. Mixing in some passes is an acceptable plan, but not according to Fox. I wonder if it was even DISCUSSED as a possibility.

Also, I wonder if the coaching staff was getting the players prepared for a possible tie. I've been on plenty of sidelines and somebody was always saying "Don't relax now, it's not over yet, be ready to go back out there, etc". And the O staff should have been prepared for situational plays, and they should have been coaching up the players for unexpected situations. Instead they were "shell-shocked".

Of course, they probably did all that, but sometimes players don't listen, fall into complacency no matter what coaches and team captains are telling them. Sometimes you just don't have the it factor or the want to, and the other team does. It's happened many, many a time, and in the end that's probably what happened to Denver.

And factor in that four of the teams best players (Manning, Champ, Von, Elvis) weren't exactly showing up bigtime. This affects other guys because your top players aren't leading by example, and so if they walk up to another player and say "You have to step up your game", or something like that, what does the other guy automatically think - "YOU step up YOUR game, then come talk to me".
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Old 01-16-2013, 11:40 AM   #194
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3rd and 7 and you run the ball... i cant believe some of you are defending that play. its foxball p***Y ****. you play to win the ****ing game. at worst you can roll out manning and take a shot and if its not there he slides. p***Y ball doesnt win super bowls.
He could have thrown on 2nd down when Ravens thought we would be running out the clock. THat is more believable. We had them where we wanted. The run wasn't a bad idea but not even trying to get the first down was retarded. It was like he wanted to run up the middle to set the ball in the middle of the field for a field goal attempt? Nope. A ****ing punt. Let Hilman get to the outside with open space. Fake handoff to Hester and pitch outside (or handoff for safety).

With Fox taking a knee to go into overtime (and not be guaranteed to regroup the offense because of a coin flip), he was playing scared like Marty ball did against us during the first drive. If Fox doesn't want to be pegged as Marty Ball, he better fix this way of thinking.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:48 PM   #195
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Not sure if this has been mentioned, but I was reviewing the play-by-play of last years Baltimore @ NE game. Here is how the game ended:

Code:
2:46	1	-	10	NWE 33	Tom Brady pass complete short left to Deion Branch for 7 yards (tackle by Bernard Pollard)
2:04	2	-	3	NWE 40	BenJarvus Green-Ellis left tackle for -1 yards (tackle by Terrell Suggs and Cary Williams)
1:56	3	-	4	NWE 39	Tom Brady pass incomplete short right intended for Aaron Hernandez (defended by Ed Reed)
1:53	4	-	4	NWE 39	Zoltan Mesko punts 44 yards, returned by Lardarius Webb for 4 yards (tackle by Sergio Brown)
1:44	1	-	10	RAV 21	Joe Flacco pass incomplete deep left intended for Anquan Boldin
1:39	2	-	10	RAV 21	Joe Flacco pass complete short left to Dennis Pitta for 5 yards (tackle by Patrick Chung)
1:14	3	-	5	RAV 26	Joe Flacco pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 13 yards
1:09	1	-	10	RAV 39	Joe Flacco pass incomplete short middle intended for Ray Rice (defended by Jerod Mayo)
1:05	2	-	10	RAV 39	Joe Flacco pass complete short middle to Anquan Boldin for 9 yards (tackle by Nate Jones)
0:58	3	-	1	RAV 48	Joe Flacco pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 29 yards (tackle by Devin McCourty)
0:51	1	-	10	NWE 23	Joe Flacco pass complete short right to Anquan Boldin for 9 yards (tackle by Julian Edelman). Anquan Boldin fumbles (forced by Julian Edelman), ball out of bounds at NWE-10
0:27	2	-	1	NWE 14	Joe Flacco pass incomplete short right intended for Lee Evans (defended by Sterling Moore)
0:22	3	-	1	NWE 14	Joe Flacco pass incomplete short right intended for Dennis Pitta (defended by Sterling Moore)
0:15	4	-	1	NWE 14	Billy Cundiff 32 yard field goal no good
So, New England had a 3rd & 4 situation inside 2 minutes, up by 3, at their own 39. They chose to throw the ball. The pass was incomplete. When the Ravens got the ball, they had 1:44 on the clock, from their own 21.

They ran 6 plays to get to the 23 yard line which took 53 seconds. That left them with three shots at the end-zone, plus time for a FG attempt.

Had Belichick ran the ball on 3rd & 4 (a much more makable down and distance), that would have taken off about another 40 seconds, Baltimore would have gotten the ball at the 20 with about a minute left. Had their ensuing drive gone identically, they would have maybe had time for one shot at the end-zone (or kick the FG) ... maybe.

Had Cundiff made a simple 32 yard FG, it would have been appropriate to blame Belichick for not burning more time prior to the 2 minute warning.

No, I think running the ball in this situation was the right thing to do.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:50 PM   #196
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Originally Posted by mwill07 View Post
Not sure if this has been mentioned, but I was reviewing the play-by-play of last years Baltimore @ NE game. Here is how the game ended:

Code:
2:46	1	-	10	NWE 33	Tom Brady pass complete short left to Deion Branch for 7 yards (tackle by Bernard Pollard)
2:04	2	-	3	NWE 40	BenJarvus Green-Ellis left tackle for -1 yards (tackle by Terrell Suggs and Cary Williams)
1:56	3	-	4	NWE 39	Tom Brady pass incomplete short right intended for Aaron Hernandez (defended by Ed Reed)
1:53	4	-	4	NWE 39	Zoltan Mesko punts 44 yards, returned by Lardarius Webb for 4 yards (tackle by Sergio Brown)
1:44	1	-	10	RAV 21	Joe Flacco pass incomplete deep left intended for Anquan Boldin
1:39	2	-	10	RAV 21	Joe Flacco pass complete short left to Dennis Pitta for 5 yards (tackle by Patrick Chung)
1:14	3	-	5	RAV 26	Joe Flacco pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 13 yards
1:09	1	-	10	RAV 39	Joe Flacco pass incomplete short middle intended for Ray Rice (defended by Jerod Mayo)
1:05	2	-	10	RAV 39	Joe Flacco pass complete short middle to Anquan Boldin for 9 yards (tackle by Nate Jones)
0:58	3	-	1	RAV 48	Joe Flacco pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 29 yards (tackle by Devin McCourty)
0:51	1	-	10	NWE 23	Joe Flacco pass complete short right to Anquan Boldin for 9 yards (tackle by Julian Edelman). Anquan Boldin fumbles (forced by Julian Edelman), ball out of bounds at NWE-10
0:27	2	-	1	NWE 14	Joe Flacco pass incomplete short right intended for Lee Evans (defended by Sterling Moore)
0:22	3	-	1	NWE 14	Joe Flacco pass incomplete short right intended for Dennis Pitta (defended by Sterling Moore)
0:15	4	-	1	NWE 14	Billy Cundiff 32 yard field goal no good
So, New England had a 3rd & 4 situation inside 2 minutes, up by 3, at their own 39. They chose to throw the ball. The pass was incomplete. When the Ravens got the ball, they had 1:44 on the clock, from their own 21.

They ran 6 plays to get to the 23 yard line which took 53 seconds. That left them with three shots at the end-zone, plus time for a FG attempt.

Had Belichick ran the ball on 3rd & 4 (a much more makable down and distance), that would have taken off about another 40 seconds, Baltimore would have gotten the ball at the 20 with about a minute left. Had their ensuing drive gone identically, they would have maybe had time for one shot at the end-zone (or kick the FG) ... maybe.

Had Cundiff made a simple 32 yard FG, it would have been appropriate to blame Belichick for not burning more time prior to the 2 minute warning.

No, I think running the ball in this situation was the right thing to do.
Uh, in both "scenarios" Baltimore pushes down the field and attempts a game-winning field goal.

Looks to me like going for the kill on 3rd down was the right move in either situation.
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Old 01-17-2013, 10:14 PM   #197
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Because you know this right?.... oh wait, no you don't.

Your entire argument is unconvincing.
You ruined my day knowing I didn't convince you, despite the fact I wasn't talking you.
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Old 01-17-2013, 10:39 PM   #198
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Uh, in both "scenarios" Baltimore pushes down the field and attempts a game-winning field goal.

Looks to me like going for the kill on 3rd down was the right move in either situation.
now, imagine Baltimore was down by 7.
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