Why running the ball on 3rd and 7 was the right call and why this forum is retarded.

[Al Wilson]

Originally Posted by Beantown Bronco

If you attempt to run the ball and go for getting the first down and then getting it, then your opponent has a 0% chance of winning.

Two can play that game.

It was 3 & 7 not 3 & 2 or 3 & 1 sherlock. The chances of getting a first down on an obvious running down on a 3 & 7 is slim to none. Passing the ball would have been the better option.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

Originally Posted by Beantown Bronco

Except every time he got touched on Saturday, he seemed to fumble the ball.

In that situation id think he'd fall to the ground before getting touched. All this proves is a coaching staff that didnt trust in their offense. Kneeling down with 2 timeouts confirmed that

[Beantown Bronco]

Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic

How many 3rd and 7s are converted by running the ball in the NFL? How many are converted by passing? Ravens were looking run the entire drive.

The priority of that run play was to take time off the clock. It wasn't to get the 1st down.

Originally Posted by Al Wilson

It was 3 & 7 not 3 & 2 or 3 & 1 sherlock. The chances of getting a first down on an obvious running down on a 3 & 7 is slim to none. Passing the ball would have been the better option.

Normally I'd agree, but in this case, what if Manning told you that they called for a pass, but Baltimore was in a dime defense and was playing pass, so he audibled to a run?

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by El Minion

Fox's conservatism may have cost his team slightly, but he didn’t decide the outcome of the game. The effect of these four calls was swamped by the impact of a few big plays, any one of which would have given Denver the win had it turned out differently.

Good find. Brian Burke does good work and his analysis and conclusion pretty much end this argument. Adn yet people will still argue...

[Beantown Bronco]

Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic

In that situation id think he'd fall to the ground before getting touched.

He didn't see either hit coming that caused the prior fumbles.

[El Minion]

Originally Posted by Al Wilson

It was 3 & 7 not 3 & 2 or 3 & 1 sherlock. The chances of getting a first down on an obvious running down on a 3 & 7 is slim to none. Passing the ball would have been the better option.

From Brian Burke

Fox’s next risk-averse decision came late in the fourth quarter. With the Broncos up 35-28, the Denver coach chose to run the ball five straight times. Fox's strategy succeeded in gaining one first down and forcing the Ravens to burn their last two timeouts. That left Denver with a third-and-7 at its own 47. Convert there and the game is over. Fox, though, decided to run rather than let Peyton Manning put the ball in the air. Ronnie Hillman was held to no gain, and the Broncos punted with 1:15 left on the clock.

Calling this running play was the safe, “sure thing” for the Broncos. Fox virtually ensured that he’d burn an additional 40 seconds of time and pin Baltimore deep in its own territory with about 70 seconds to play. There was also a slim chance that Denver could have converted with the run, winning the game outright. A pass would have been a gamble. A successful conversion would sew up the win, but an incomplete pass would have given Baltimore the ball with about 1:49 left. Passing also brings an extra risk of a turnover, either via an interception or a sack and a fumble.

For teams that need a touchdown to survive, time makes a big difference. With 1:09 to play, a team typically has a 13 percent chance of scoring a touchdown. With 1:49 to go, they have around a 26 percent chance. The choice, then, is between conceding Baltimore the 13 percent shot or gambling that you’ll either win the game outright or give Baltimore a 26 percent chance to win. League-wide, third-and-7 situations are converted 42 percent of the time. That means if Denver drops back to pass, Baltimore’s chance of winning is (1 - 0.42) * 0.26 = 0.15 = 15 percent. According to the math, then, Fox made the right call: Punting was, just barely, the right probabilistic call.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

Originally Posted by El Minion

From Brian Burke

What does it say about scoring a TD in seconds twice in a game?

Id take the 0% chance of winning converting that 1st down. Never know of you get it or not but not trying kills playoff teams. That's regular season ball.

[Bronco Yoda]

No guts, No glory!

Print it up John and stick it everywhere. Start with Fox's bathroom mirror, shirts, office wall, etc.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

IMO it was a coaching staff that was playing by a not to lose handbook instead of ADJUSTING their thinking based on the elements of the game. By that I mean Baltimore showed several times in the game that time and distance was not a factor in stopping them from scoring a TD. Give them 30 seconds? No problem. That ravens sideline was silent before that 3rd and 7. As soon as it wasn't converted they showed enthusiasm and life.

It was the right call in some games. It was the wrong call in a game where the opposing team showed numerous times they could score at will. That's when you adapt and adjust. An elite coach would make that adjustment.

[Al Wilson]

Originally Posted by Beantown Bronco

Normally I'd agree, but in this case, what if Manning told you that they called for a pass, but Baltimore was in a dime defense and was playing pass, so he audibled to a run?

Doesn't matter. Going for the pass would have been the better option. I'd rather kill the other team's chances of getting a touchdown by simply passing for the first down. A playaction pass would've got us the first down. Fox's strategy and conservative approach finally got the best of him. And at the end of the day it is the fans that pay these retards that have to take it the hardest.

[Al Wilson]

Originally Posted by El Minion

From Brian Burke

The Ravens were scoring at will. This right there is even more proof that Denver should have passed on the 3rd and 7 to kill the Ravens chances. As I mentioned, being a conservative coach has its consequences and it couldn't have a come in a worse game than this. Fox deserves it for being a wuss. Conservative coaching doesn't win you championships; sorry to burst your bubbles fellow fans.

[winstoncup bronco]

Originally Posted by TonyR

Your logic is more than just a little bit flawed here. If we passed instead of ran in that situation and lost would that have been the "right call"?

Yes, it would be the right call to the extent that we tried to WIN the game, tried to close it out. If you don't convert, THEN you hand the game to your defense, knowing you did what you could. What we did was wave the white flag. We dared them to beat us, instead of us just beating them, and look what it got us.

The fact that we ran off that time is moot because they scored on us in 40 seconds anyway. And might I also add, even if the pass on 3rd & 7 is incomplete giving Baltimore more time, I doubt they get desperate and heave the ball in that situation. We'd have a much better chance at managing the field than guarding against a pass play that was killing us all day to begin with.

It's just amazing we spent all of this money on a QB that will probably win MVP, and we can't even try to convert a 3rd & 7 to win a playoff game. Just pitiful.

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by El Minion

From Brian Burke

This is so simple. The proof is right here. And yet, as I suggested would happen, people keep arguing.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

Originally Posted by Al Wilson

The Ravens were scoring at will. This right there is even more proof that Denver should have passed on the 3rd and 7 to kill the Ravens chances. As I mentioned, being a conservative coach has its consequences and it couldn't have a come in a worse game than this. Fox deserves it for being a wuss. Conservative coaching doesn't win you championships; sorry to burst your bubbles fellow fans.

Exactly my point. Ravens already showed fox they don't need time to score. They showed the broncos that distance to the endzone meant nothing.

The most basic way of describing it is taking the ball out of your own hands and giving the other team a shot. It's not really about whether they would've passed for a 1st, threw an incomplete, or even an int. it's the fact they didnt even TRY that is the scary part. No team will ever win a SB when you have that mentality.

Books percentages history tell you to run, the way the game was unfolding it was telling you to pass.

[ScottXray]

Originally Posted by outdoor_miner

I 100% agree that this was the right decision. It is a no-brainer. The odds of Moore (or someone else on Defense) completely crapping the bed were extremely low. Unfortunately, it happened, but it doesn't mean they made the wrong call.

My major issue with Fox were the friggin kneel-downs at the end of the halves, particularly the one at the end of the game. So cowardly. My issue with Manning was I thought he audibled into too many runs in the second half and OT. They just seemed to let the passing game get totally out of rhythm. I don't know why he kept running on 2nd and 1. Why not take a shot downfield in that situation? Ughhhhh. Worst. Game. Ever.

The decision to run on 3rd and seven was correct. The decision to run up the MIDDLE of the Defense with Hester was questionable considering we had already been stuffed there twice. Two back set with Two TE and maybe Hillman to the outside might have had a chance. Wrong personnel were in to have a chance of the first down, with Baltimore ALSO knowing the percentages. Might as well have run a Manning sneak.

It did run the clock...but there was almost zero chance of converting the first down.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

Harbaugh adjusted to Holliday. He didnt keep kicking it to him after what he saw. Fox on the other hand didnt make the adjustment. Sure the ravens only needed 40 seconds to score on me already, the percentages say they won't do it again. That type of thinking ends up in losses.

[BroncoBeavis]

Originally Posted by Bronco Yoda

No guts, No glory!

Print it up John and stick it everywhere. Start with Fox's bathroom mirror, shirts, office wall, etc.

Maybe Pull the Trigger?

[Popps]

If the 3rd and 7 call was the only ultraconservative, play-not-to-lose call... I might buy into this thread.

But, when you repeatedly chose not to be proactive in deciding your own fate, this is what happens. There were at least 4 major intersections in this game where we could have chosen to use our 90 million dollar QB and instead... played scared.

[SonOfLe-loLang]

Originally Posted by Popps

If the 3rd and 7 call was the only ultraconservative, play-not-to-lose call... I might buy into this thread.

But, when you repeatedly chose not to be proactive in deciding your own fate, this is what happens. There were at least 4 major intersections in this game where we could have chosen to use our 90 million dollar QB and instead... played scared.

I dunno that, in this case, it qualifies. When we punted, the ravens chances were slim to none. Unfortunately they got it done on a fluke, but it wasnt like we were giving it to them with 2:30 left and 3 time outs.

[Tombstone RJ]

Originally Posted by TonyR

This is so simple. The proof is right here. And yet, as I suggested would happen, people keep arguing.

With how crappy the defense was playing there's legit reasons to speculate on this topic.

[broncobum6162]

We should have thrown a high percentage play action pass on 2nd down. That would have gotten us our 1st down. Ratbirds sitting all over the run.. We played not to lose which is as effective as the prevent defense. Either way you end up losing which we did or as some have correctly called it "Martyball" gosh how I miss his daze in KC&,SD......end of discussion.

[Bronco Yoda]

This might or might not have been mentioned by now... but if not. Some have questioned if Foxed made the 3rd & 7 call or manning checked down to run. Fox was on the 'Fan' today and clarified that He (Fox) made the call (3rd & 7) not Manning. But Manning checked down to the run on the 3rd & 5 at the end of the first half.

[broncobum6162]

Originally Posted by Bronco Yoda

This might or might not have been mentioned by now... but if not. Some have questioned if Foxed made the 3rd & 7 call or manning checked down to run. Fox was on the 'Fan' today and clarified that He (Fox) made the call (3rd & 7) not Manning. But Manning checked down to the run on the 3rd & 5 at the end of the first half.

Why.....after we can barely make 3rd and 2 what makes him think w can make 3rd and 5. As much as we want to believe we are a run first team we arent. We have to pass to pass to set it up. Especially w Moreno and Hillman. Mc Coy and evidently now Manning havnt figured that out......

[extralife]

I said the same thing in one of the innumerable other threads. I agree with the call, I agree with the thread. We've won games like this this season. Our pass coverage and pass rush were two of the strengths of the team. Trust them to get the job done in a situation where the Ravens had virtually no chance of winning the game. They failed us horribly. Can't coach through failure like that, you just do what puts your team in the best position to win. The goal is to win the game, not pretend your making a questionable call makes you a bigger man and avails you of any of the blame for a loss. It takes more "balls" to make the right call in the face of a sea of idiots.

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by broncobum6162

Why.....after we can barely make 3rd and 2 what makes him think w can make 3rd and 5. As much as we want to believe we are a run first team we arent. We have to pass to pass to set it up. Especially w Moreno and Hillman. Mc Coy and evidently now Manning havnt figured that out......

One can only assume that Manning saw something. His read was that run was the way to go. Either Baltimore reacted well or the Broncos executed poorly. Or both. All said, I hated it.