Why running the ball on 3rd and 7 was the right call and why this forum is retarded.

[LetsGoBroncos]

Originally Posted by Willynowei

Seriously i remember coming to the mane because the team forum at denverbroncos.com was full of retards that don't know a thing about football, well now i'm not sure this place is significantly better, considering all i hear is that we should have passed the ball on third and long with 1:20 left.

Here's why all of you are dead wrong.

1.) Chance of conversion is EXTREMELY LOW:

The highest conversion rate of 3rd downs in the entire NFL is New England at an impressive 48%. That's including 3rd and 1's, 3rd and 2's, 3rd and 3's. The Actual likelihood of converting a 3rd and 7 with the best offense in the NFL is way way way below 50%.

2.) Field position and Time:

40 seconds left, 0 time outs, 80 yards: This is what the offense hands the defense.

When exactly 80 seconds are left on the clock, 40 seconds equates to 50% of the time left, when you sit nearly at mid field, your punt has an extremely high chance of pinning the opponent inside their 20.

so Here's what you get by running off 40 seconds.

Scenario A: Opposing offense has 80 seconds: If each play takes 10 seconds on average to run, they can cover 60 yards in 6 plays at 10 seconds each and have 20 seconds and 2 or 3 plays at the endzone from our redzone, that's a pretty good shot at scoring.

Scenario B: Opposing offense has 40 seconds: If each play takes 10 seconds again, they now have only 3 tries to get 60 yards and have 1 or 2 shots at the endzone in scoring. This means your defense doesn't have to worry about anything less than 20 yards deep, and if there's any completions over the middle, even if they were for 40 yards, that would burn something like 30 seconds off the clock and the next shot would have to go at the endzone.

In other words - half decent prevent defense should make scenario B impossible against any offense, no matter how talented as long as you sit back and keep everything in front of you, where as scenario A gives them enough time to have a realistic shot at tieing the game. (I'll flesh this out more in point 4 as well)


3.) Touchdown was required, not a field goal:

The Ravens needed a touchdown, not a field goal, comebacks like the one Matt Ryan lead with timeouts and 30 seconds to score a field goal is relatively common, touchdowns off a prayer pass with 40 seconds left is almost unheard of.

4.) It is impossible for the opposing team to win if you play prevent properly.

NFL plays, even when running no huddle require 6-10 seconds to execute, and another 10 setup for a second play, the Ravens essentially had time to run a total of 3 full plays over the middle or 4 plays to the sideline assuming Flacco hits all of his completions.

This means each completion must average over 20 yards to even have a shot at the endzone that's not a hail mary. If you rush 3 and play prevent the likelyhood of scoring is almost 0%, why would anyone whose logical not like those odds?

5.) Peyton Manning made the right field call:

Manning is a cerebral player, if he sees 2-high safeties, he knows its 7 in the box and a run is almost guaranteed to get at least some yardage, in fact, we could even make an argument on the question: What is more likely to gain a first down against a defense looking for pass with a 2-man coverage called? A run or a pass?

Who said we had no chance to pick up that first down with a run. We in actuality ran time off the clock and gave ourselves a chance to get the first down as well - a chance probably not much worse than the slim chance at converting a 3rd and long over the air against 2 high man.

Conclusion:

I want to be politically correct and say something down the middle, but you guys who are criticizing manning or the offensive call are all a bunch of ****ing idiots.

You run the ball there, that gives you the best chance to win in that situation. They were down a touchdown not a fieldgoal, there were 0 timeouts and field position gave us the best chance to win with defense.

At some point you have play defense in the NFL, otherwise everyone would onside kick it every single time. In this game we lost because of poor safety play.

If you want to blame John Fox, blame him because didn't play prevent at a point in the game where pressing your corners up in the flats with a cover 2 defense made no sense (who the **** cares about 5-10 yard outs with 40 seconds left and 80 yards to go for a touchdown?).

So go ahead make fire Moore or fire fox threads about defensive errors but don't talk about stupid sh*t like "we should've gone for the first down". That's the stupidest sh*t i've ever heard.

I agree with you. It is easy to say after our Safety makes a mistake for the ages and we end up losing that we should have thrown on 3rd and 7. The ONLY thing I can say that maybe we could have done differently would have been to call a pass play but tell Manning if it's not there take the sack and keep the clock moving.

All in all though I think if we throw and it is incomplete and Baltimore comes back to win we are all yelling that we should have run and taken the clock down to a minute.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

Just cause its a passing play doesn't mean you have to pass if no one is open. Manning could just lay down to keep the clock rolling. You want to play the percentage game? Ok. How about they have a 0% chance of winning if you make that 1st down. This isn't even as bad as kneeling with half a minute and 2 timeouts. That showed ZERO trust in the offense. Twice.

There's points when players/coaches become dead to me. With shanny it was refusing to fire Slowik. With tebow it was the last KC game. Now I'm done with Fox after that kneel down crap. Atlanta scored in 31 seconds. You have WRs a QB and long legged kicker with 2 timeouts and you give up?? That's unforgivable.

[MplsBronco]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

I think the loss of Moreno was a major factor in that final call. Hillman was going down on first contact. PM had to know, by that point, that he had no play action to work with. It was going to be a straight toss, and probably a heavy blitz. I don't know what the Ratbirds were playing at that moment, but I assume it was at least a nickle package. Maybe even dime? I'm guessing that everything he saw on that field screamed "RUN." Does anybody know the routes that were called on that play? I'm guessing it would be something designed to empty the middle and pull off Lewis? So what do you do? Bubble screen? Dump off to a back? Screen? Flat? Hook route? You've got two out of three chances that something bad is going to happen, and an incomplete doesn't burn any clock.

Good points, but why not dictate the terms with your formation? Why not come out in 5 wides in the shotgun. Make balt adjust. Instead just vanilla dive off guard.

[24champ]

Originally Posted by ludo21

In hindsight I trust my HOF QB to make a play...

but in the moment I agreed, you take the time off the clock...

BUT I HATED THE KNEEEL DOWN!!!! BOTH OF THEM!!!!!!!!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

I had friggin nightmares Saturday night about those.. ;(

This.

I agreed with the run play, but for crying out loud, you have 30 seconds and timeouts to get a FG to win the game.

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by MplsBronco

I hate the Patriots but I admire their mentality. And its why they are in the AFCCG yet again.

I'd argue they're in the game because of some combination of being better than us, not sh*tting the bed against Houston the way we did against Baltimore, and not getting shafted by the refs.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by MplsBronco

Good points, but why not dictate the terms with your formation? Why not come out in 5 wides in the shotgun. Make balt adjust. Instead just vanilla dive off guard.

Because then you risk Suggs planting your QB in the ground. I just really believe that the loss of Moreno colored the whole playcalling mindset.

[MplsBronco]

Originally Posted by TonyR

I'd argue they're in the game because of some combination of being better than us, not sh*tting the bed against Houston the way we did against Baltimore, and not getting shafted by the refs.

They've been in this position repeatedly over the last decade. People criticize them for putting up 50 on ppl. How many times this year did we take the gas off the pedal and let teams score late? Its a mentality, not something fostered in a single game. We lack it and it showed. Do you think Belichek plays it the same way? Or do you think he goes for the win?

And don't give me this talent BS. We have the supposed GOAT at QB and some pretty damn good receivers.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by MplsBronco

They've been in this position repeatedly over the last decade. People criticize them for putting up 50 on ppl. How many times this year did we take the gas off the pedal and let teams score late? Its a mentality, not something fostered in a single game. We lack it and it showed. Do you think Belichek plays it the same way? Or do you think he goes for the win?

And don't give me this talent BS. We have the supposed GOAT at QB and some pretty damn good receivers.

If he didn't have Ridley and Woodhead to put in the game, I'll bet he makes the same call.

[broncocalijohn]

THe blame is on Moore. They said that the chances for the Ravens to tie the score at that moment was 3%. We did everything right to put us in the position to win and the slim luck blew it. There were other coaching mistakes before that one. If anything, I would have liked to see a play action, safe short throw on 2nd down as the Ravens would have never expected it.

[MplsBronco]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

If he didn't have Ridley and Woodhead to put in the game, I'll bet he makes the same call.

Wait, missing his 2 best RB's you think Belichek runs it? Funny, I think that means he passes it. But I think he passes it anyway. I think he plays it with the mentality that Balt is not getting the ball again, no matter what it takes.

[Gutless Drunk]

Originally Posted by 24champ

This.

I agreed with the run play, but for crying out loud, you have 30 seconds and timeouts to get a FG to win the game.

"In a tie game, the Broncos started their final drive on their own 20 with 0:31 seconds remaining and two timeouts in hand. John Fox says, "Let's take it to overtime" and has potentially the greatest quarterback ever kneel down instead of trying for the game-winning field goal. That wasn't the first time the Broncos made this mistake. In fact, they made an eerily similar gaffe at the end of the first half. After missing a field goal and allowing a long Torrey Smith touchdown, the Broncos received the ball at the 20 with 0:36 seconds left and three timeouts. John Fox ran the ball one time and headed to the locker room. The only real explanation is that Fox believes momentum has predictive power. His thought process was probably that after two huge plays from Baltimore, the only thing that could come from an attempted 30-second drive is a game-changing mistake.


Let's look at the facts. The Broncos have Peyton Manning at the helm. They are playing at Mile High which adds about 5-yards to field goal range. The Broncos have 2+ timeouts in both situations. At the end of regulation, if it's tied, you go to overtime where there is a 50% chance of winning the game. According to Brian's win probability calculator, the initial win probability of the final drive was 54% (if you include the fact that it was played at Mile High).

I pulled all the drives that started between 20 and 40 seconds left in the game with 2+ timeouts, in a 3-point to 0-point deficit range (those ranges where a field goal would be the primary goal of the offense) since 2000 where the offense did not just kneel or run the ball into the end of the game. It was also limited to those drives that started inside a team's own 30-yard line. I found 21 such drives, here were the results:



First thing to note is that 21 is not a huge sample size, but at least it provides a baseline for an analysis of the Broncos decision. Out of the 21 drives, seven resulted in a field goal attempt and only one of those was from over 60 yards. One drive resulted in a huge mistake and ultimate loss (Donovan McNabb threw an interception in a tie game which ultimately resulted in a Redskins game-winning field goal). For those 16 drives with no score (including the field goal misses), there is no difference to just kneeling down. In other words, there is no downside, both result in a 50% chance of winning the game as it goes to overtime.

I could have pulled similar situations at the end of the first half, which would have increased the sample size and allowed us a better look at the first half decision to just run the ball, but I wanted to focus especially on the end-of-game scenario where score was the primary factor. These results would suggest that if a team decided to go for the win, it would result in about a 57% chance of winning the game. Add Peyton Manning into the mix and that number certainly increases.

Last game of the season, can't hold anything back.

Oh, and the Atlanta Falcons started their final drive at the 28-yard line with 31 seconds left and two timeouts, and they kicked a go-ahead game-winning field goal (essentially the identical situation). C'mon, John.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013...al-drives.html

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by MplsBronco

Wait, missing his 2 best RB's you think Belichek runs it? Funny, I think that means he passes it. But I think he passes it anyway. I think he plays it with the mentality that Balt is not getting the ball again, no matter what it takes.

Actually, he probably does call a pass. But then, he has an Oline he can depend on in that situation.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

Why is it on the OM when someone doesn't agree with your point they are a "retard" or "retarded"? Simple minds resort to that mindset when their arguement is weak

[MplsBronco]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Actually, he probably does call a pass. But then, he has an Oline he can depend on in that situation.

Touche.

[TonyR]

See Gutless Drunk's post above. Those are the situations you should be mad about. That's where Fox screwed up, particularly at the end of regulation.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by TonyR

See Gutless Drunk's post above. Those are the situations you should be mad about. That's where Fox screwed up, particularly at the end of regulation.

Yeah. Both of those were total head scratchers at the time. I'd love to hear his explanation for those. The only thing I thought at the time was that he didn't trust Hillman, the loss of play action, or the Oline, so he played it safe.

[winstoncup bronco]

Originally Posted by MplsBronco

The arguement is what gives you the best chance to make a first down and win the game? Running or Passing? The mentality should have been closing out the game and not giving them the ball back. That is the arguement.

Again, you make no sense with the "low percentage play over the 90+% play". A pass does not automatically mean a loss. So stop this arguement. Even an incomplete pass and 30 more seconds for Balt probably still puts your 97% probablity at highr than 90%.

You clearly are happy with a team with a p***Y mentality. I hate the Patriots but I admire their mentality. And its why they are in the AFCCG yet again.

Thank you.

The call was to give up and give Baltimore the ball.

Baltimore scores and sends us home.

In what universe can that possibly be justified as the right call? We lost the damn game for crying out loud. How does a call that makes you lose any game, let alone a playoff game, get to be considered a right call?

Of course you don't expect Moore to **** the bed. All the more reason not to willingly give up the ball. The unexpected will happen.

And oh yeah, we have Peyton Manning back there making the throw for first down. Why even bother signing him if you're going to take the ball out of his hands at the most clutch moment of the season.

Give me a break with this "right call" nonsense. We lost. It was a bad call.

[toad]

As uncool as it was (and personally/emotionally disappointing) I think it was the right call. And I have to to assume Fox, McCoy, and Manning were all on the same page.

With a statistically less than 50% conversion rate and a less than 5% chance they score a TD on the way back you have to play that percentage (particularly in an ugly game like this where momentum, officiating, and simple luck hadn't fallen our way).

[Beantown Bronco]

Originally Posted by winstoncup bronco

In what universe can that possibly be justified as the right call? We lost the damn game for crying out loud. How does a call that makes you lose any game, let alone a playoff game, get to be considered a right call?

Because some calls CAN be the right call to make, but the result doesn't turn out the way it could/should and you lose. Happens all the time.

Think about it this way. We ran and we lost. What if we passed the ball and lost? Technically, then, according to you, there was no right call to make since we lost either way.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

2 teams scored this weekend with 30 seconds. Fox gives up and kneels.

I will never forgive that. He's done in my eyes.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Beantown Bronco

Because some calls CAN be the right call to make, but the result doesn't turn out the way it could/should and you lose. Happens all the time.

Think about it this way. We ran and we lost. What if we passed the ball and lost? Technically, then, according to you, there was no right call to make since we lost either way.

I put it right up there with a baseball situation where you're the home team, up by one run, bottom of the ninth, have two outs, bases empty, a .300 slugger at the plate, and a .200 batter behind him. You walk the slugger. 100% of the time, you walk the slugger. What happened to us is that the .200 batter then came up and hit a low and outside pitch into the seats. Actually, more like he hit it deep, our centerfielder did a face plant, the ball lodged in the corner of the fence, and it became an inside the park home run.

[go_broncos]

John Fox is an idiot..He still thinks it's 1970 football.
There is a reason why it's called passing league.
See how SEA almost won the game against ATL.
Seven point lead will not be enough.Teams nowadays are scoring within a minute.
It's frustrating that we didn't even try to score points during the end of regulation.

[Wes Mantooth]

Originally Posted by winstoncup bronco

Thank you.

The call was to give up and give Baltimore the ball.

Baltimore scores and sends us home.

In what universe can that possibly be justified as the right call? We lost the damn game for crying out loud. How does a call that makes you lose any game, let alone a playoff game, get to be considered a right call?

Of course you don't expect Moore to **** the bed. All the more reason not to willingly give up the ball. The unexpected will happen.

And oh yeah, we have Peyton Manning back there making the throw for first down. Why even bother signing him if you're going to take the ball out of his hands at the most clutch moment of the season.

Give me a break with this "right call" nonsense. We lost. It was a bad call.

The D should have been able to manage with no time outs and a 7point lead.

[Beantown Bronco]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

I put it right up there with a baseball situation.....

Good call. That's probably as good an analogy as I've heard.

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by winstoncup bronco

Give me a break with this "right call" nonsense. We lost. It was a bad call.

Your logic is more than just a little bit flawed here. If we passed instead of ran in that situation and lost would that have been the "right call"?