Nate Silver's Prediction is In.... - The Orange Mane

B-Large · 01-11-2013, 07:22 AM

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_2451994.html

This guy is a lock on Politics and Baseball, hopefully he is wrong about the SB this year.... I hope Houston's D beats the everloving piss out of Tom Brady so Von can finsih him off, Mountain Time....

spdirty · 01-11-2013, 08:18 AM

That Super Bowl matchup would be stupid enough and depressing enough to get me to go to one of those dumbass Super Bowl parties.

Mr.Meanie · 01-11-2013, 08:25 AM

Football is quite a bit more unpredictable than baseball and politics. Since it's a team sport, no matter how talented and well coached your team is one weak link or boneheaded play can completely change the game. For example, Flacco's pick 6 on the goal line by Harris isn't something that can be accounted for by statistics or past history, it was a bit of a fluke, and changed the game from probably 10-7 to a 17-0 game heading into halftime. That effected the entire game and changed both sides gameplans in the 2nd half (playing into ours, obviously).

I love me some Nate Silver, I just don't buy it.

Greatspirits · 01-11-2013, 08:30 AM

I wouldn't be surprised at all if that happened, really I'm just taking it one game at a time. We need to just get by Baltimore and go from there.

DENVERDUI55 · 01-11-2013, 08:31 AM

Why even play the games now? Just another prediction.

B-Large · 01-11-2013, 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr.Meanie

Football is quite a bit more unpredictable than baseball and politics. Since it's a team sport, no matter how talented and well coached your team is one weak link or boneheaded play can completely change the game. For example, Flacco's pick 6 on the goal line by Harris isn't something that can be accounted for by statistics or past history, it was a bit of a fluke, and changed the game from probably 10-7 to a 17-0 game heading into halftime. That effected the entire game and changed both sides gameplans in the 2nd half (playing into ours, obviously).

I love me some Nate Silver, I just don't buy it.

that's kind of what I was thinking, alot of moving parts.... but it would be very interesting to hear from Nate of one of his other geeks what analystics and trends actually do show repeatability and measure success...

Silver, during the elelction made a footbal comparison I thought was eye opening. At the time, Obama had a 85% chance of winning the elelction, and Nate compared it to an NFL team having a lead of three point, two minutes to go and you are on offense starting at your 30 yard line... that siuation in the NFL turns out a win 85% of the time... that's pretty cool.

Alot of team are begininng to build a Analytics dept for scouting and drafting... there is a belief Moneyball can be replicated in the NFL.. I don't know if it can, but I love Stats and these breakdowns...

TheReverend · 01-11-2013, 08:36 AM

Certainly possible

Bronco Boy · 01-11-2013, 09:04 AM

It's not really his prediction, just what the Football Outsiders metrics say the best teams are in each conference.

SonOfLe-loLang · 01-11-2013, 09:09 AM

Yeah, i dont think this is really a huge limb, but obviously there are more variables that go into a football game than a political vote. You can't predict drop passes, fumbles, tipped picks, and so on and so forth. The political equivilant would be like 5,000 liberals suddenly switching their vote 5 days before the election. Doesnt happen.

But some statistician even said the broncos had a 75 percent chance of winning this weekend. If you told me i had a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery tomorrow, id be pretty damn excited.

Beej · 01-11-2013, 09:17 AM

Silver says, "balance is the key" to the Seahawks beating the Falcons or 49ers; I wonder why he doesn't apply that to the Patriots/Broncos matchup? We are way more balanced than New England.

SonOfLe-loLang · 01-11-2013, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beej

Silver says, "balance is the key" to the Seahawks beating the Falcons or 49ers; I wonder why he doesn't apply that to the Patriots/Broncos matchup? We are way more balanced than New England.

Sure, but is it outlandish to think NE could come here and beat us? Of course not. Should that game occur though, methinks it'll be EPIC.

Tombstone RJ · 01-11-2013, 09:20 AM

reading the huffpost is your first mistake.

Kaylore · 01-11-2013, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang

Yeah, i dont think this is really a huge limb, but obviously there are more variables that go into a football game than a political vote. You can't predict drop passes, fumbles, tipped picks, and so on and so forth. The political equivilant would be like 5,000 liberals suddenly switching their vote 5 days before the election. Doesnt happen.

But some statistician even said the broncos had a 75 percent chance of winning this weekend. If you told me i had a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery tomorrow, id be pretty damn excited.

Exactly. Games are determined by moments, not the minds of individuals and their feelings about a topic or their well-being.

And as someone else pointed out, the article isn't even a prediction. It's the odds.

Kaylore · 01-11-2013, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

reading the huffpost is your first mistake.

And this too...

Bronco Boy · 01-11-2013, 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

reading the huffpost is your first mistake.

FoxNews already has it's readers convinced that the Cowboys won this year's Super Bowl.

Bronco X · 01-11-2013, 09:44 AM

Silver nailed the election because polling data is designed to and provides a fairly accurate representation of potential election results. There's no such comparable data for sports. If Silver makes an election prediction, you listen. That doesn't mean he can predict everything. Still, wish his prediction was different.

Tombstone RJ · 01-11-2013, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco Boy

FoxNews already has it's readers convinced that the Cowboys won this year's Super Bowl.

really? I guess I'd care if I watched Fox. But thanks for informing me. I love it how librals know more about Fox than independents like me. The huffpost is a libral rag for tards.

SonOfLe-loLang · 01-11-2013, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

really? I guess I'd care if I watched Fox. But thanks for informing me. I love it how librals know more about Fox than independents like me. The huffpost is a libral rag for tards.

We took a perfectly nice thread about winning probabilities and turned it into a policial fight. Well done.

winstoncup bronco · 01-11-2013, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang

Sure, but is it outlandish to think NE could come here and beat us? Of course not. Should that game occur though, methinks it'll be EPIC.

I agree.

Anything can happen in the plaoffs. All it takes is one bad day. The Giants won two Super Bowls going against home playoff teams that thought they would handle them easily.

We should win this game, but am I 100% confident we will? No flippin way.

Tombstone RJ · 01-11-2013, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang

We took a perfectly nice thread about winning probabilities and turned it into a policial fight. Well done.

no we didn't. I stated some facts and you pulled up your skirt and cried.

DenverDynamite · 01-11-2013, 10:09 AM

I love Nate Silver, but he's a baseball guy.

Kaylore · 01-11-2013, 10:10 AM

I'm sorry, but isn't Huffington Post part of AOL? Objectively speaking isn't that kind of a sign of it sucking? It's like if drudge report went to myspace....

Swedish Extrovert · 01-11-2013, 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr.Meanie

Football is quite a bit more unpredictable than baseball and politics. Since it's a team sport, no matter how talented and well coached your team is one weak link or boneheaded play can completely change the game. For example, Flacco's pick 6 on the goal line by Harris isn't something that can be accounted for by statistics or past history, it was a bit of a fluke, and changed the game from probably 10-7 to a 17-0 game heading into halftime. That effected the entire game and changed both sides gameplans in the 2nd half (playing into ours, obviously).

I love me some Nate Silver, I just don't buy it.

I hope you're right....

Silver picked every election correctly in 2012 except North Dakota.

Rock Chalk · 01-11-2013, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bronco Boy

It's not really his prediction, just what the Football Outsiders metrics say the best teams are in each conference.

Except Football Outsiders has the Broncos as #2 behind Seattle

Rock Chalk · 01-11-2013, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaylore

Exactly. Games are determined by moments, not the minds of individuals and their feelings about a topic or their well-being.

And as someone else pointed out, the article isn't even a prediction. It's the odds.

No, its not even the odds.

Whatever Silver did, he went out on a limb picking New England.

the odds favor Denver.

Football Outsiders favors Denver (in the AFC)

And while Silver has been right in politics and baseball, he is a far cry from knowing what football outsiders does and even football outsiders doesn't have a good track record of predicting football games.

In fact, football is the most unpredictable of all sports (NFL that is). In the NBA and College hoops there are literally dozens of really fantastic metrics that are great predictors. IN baseball they can basically just stop playing because the predictors in them are extremely refined.

But football, the best model is DVOA from football outsiders and they are wrong far more often than they are right.

01-11-2013, 07:22 AM	#1
B-Large Solid Starter New to the Forum Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 194 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	Nate Silver's Prediction is In.... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_2451994.html This guy is a lock on Politics and Baseball, hopefully he is wrong about the SB this year.... I hope Houston's D beats the everloving piss out of Tom Brady so Von can finsih him off, Mountain Time....

01-11-2013, 09:44 AM	#16
Bronco X Pro Bowler Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 732	Silver nailed the election because polling data is designed to and provides a fairly accurate representation of potential election results. There's no such comparable data for sports. If Silver makes an election prediction, you listen. That doesn't mean he can predict everything. Still, wish his prediction was different. Last edited by Bronco X; 01-11-2013 at 10:46 AM..

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01-11-2013, 08:18 AM	#2
spdirty Ring of Famer Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Bailey Posts: 13,883 Adopt-a-Bronco: Koppen	That Super Bowl matchup would be stupid enough and depressing enough to get me to go to one of those dumbass Super Bowl parties.

01-11-2013, 08:25 AM	#3
Mr.Meanie Ring of Famer Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,590 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	Football is quite a bit more unpredictable than baseball and politics. Since it's a team sport, no matter how talented and well coached your team is one weak link or boneheaded play can completely change the game. For example, Flacco's pick 6 on the goal line by Harris isn't something that can be accounted for by statistics or past history, it was a bit of a fluke, and changed the game from probably 10-7 to a 17-0 game heading into halftime. That effected the entire game and changed both sides gameplans in the 2nd half (playing into ours, obviously). I love me some Nate Silver, I just don't buy it.

01-11-2013, 08:30 AM	#4
Greatspirits Pro Bowler Bridge of Sighs Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: Park Hill Posts: 596 Adopt-a-Bronco: Steven Johnson	I wouldn't be surprised at all if that happened, really I'm just taking it one game at a time. We need to just get by Baltimore and go from there.

01-11-2013, 08:31 AM	#5
DENVERDUI55 Drunk on Arrival! New to the Forum Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,146 Adopt-a-Bronco: Montee Ball	Why even play the games now? Just another prediction.

01-11-2013, 08:36 AM	#7
TheReverend www.PatrickTurley.org ^ buy this... twice Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Jacksonville, FL Posts: 32,971 Adopt-a-Bronco: Mike Shanahan	Certainly possible

01-11-2013, 09:04 AM	#8
Bronco Boy Avid Ambien Abuser It all makes so much sense! Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 1,901 Adopt-a-Bronco: Eric Decker	It's not really his prediction, just what the Football Outsiders metrics say the best teams are in each conference.

01-11-2013, 09:09 AM	#9
SonOfLe-loLang Young Buck Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 13,214 Adopt-a-Bronco: Thunder (RIP)	Yeah, i dont think this is really a huge limb, but obviously there are more variables that go into a football game than a political vote. You can't predict drop passes, fumbles, tipped picks, and so on and so forth. The political equivilant would be like 5,000 liberals suddenly switching their vote 5 days before the election. Doesnt happen. But some statistician even said the broncos had a 75 percent chance of winning this weekend. If you told me i had a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery tomorrow, id be pretty damn excited.

01-11-2013, 09:17 AM	#10
Beej Seasoned Veteran Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 417	Silver says, "balance is the key" to the Seahawks beating the Falcons or 49ers; I wonder why he doesn't apply that to the Patriots/Broncos matchup? We are way more balanced than New England.

01-11-2013, 09:20 AM	#12
Tombstone RJ Ring of Famer Old School Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: In the Tetons! Posts: 19,274 Adopt-a-Bronco: WorrellWilliams	reading the huffpost is your first mistake.

01-11-2013, 10:09 AM	#21
DenverDynamite Rookie New to the Forum Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Thornton Posts: 88 Adopt-a-Bronco: Von Miller	I love Nate Silver, but he's a baseball guy.

01-11-2013, 10:10 AM	#22
Kaylore 6-37, Raider fans. Yummy birds and snow! Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Ceti Alpha V Posts: 41,013 Adopt-a-Bronco: Wesley Duke	I'm sorry, but isn't Huffington Post part of AOL? Objectively speaking isn't that kind of a sign of it sucking? It's like if drudge report went to myspace....