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Old 12-13-2012, 01:31 PM   #1
ZONA
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Default #3 seed better then #4 seed, even if that means playing in NE 2nd round

I think some of the comments we've heard on the mane this past week make no sense at all when it comes to the playoff seeding.

If things stay as they are and Houston keeps the #1 seed and NE keeps the #2 seed, some folks what to believe it's a better deal for us to end up as the #4 seed rather then the 3rd seed, all to avoid having to go to NE in the 2nd round.

Well let's just assume Broncos and Ravens win the wildcard round games, and Ravens go to Houston as the #4 seed and we go to NE as the #3 seed.

What happens if both Denver and Baltimore win? hh, that means Denver gets to host the AFC Championship game against the Ravens. So why would we want the #4 seed and have to play 2 games on the road when it is still possible we could play 1 on the road and 2 at home.

If we had the #4 seed we would go to Houston and if we win, we play the winner of the Ravens and NE, and if NE wins, we still have to go to NE.

So that's 2 scenarios out of 3 (if the top 4 teams in AFC remain the same) where we still have to go to NE to play.

So if you ask me, I'll take that #3 seed. Because odds are we'll have to play either round 2 or 3 in NE. But I'd like to have that chance to host the AFC Championship game if we beat NE and Houston loses, which is possible, they don't look really strong right now.

Get what I'm sayin'? So I'd really like to know why some people think getting the #4 seed would be better. Let's face it, going to play in NE looks inevitable, it just depends on what round we go there.
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Old 12-13-2012, 01:42 PM   #2
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If you're sole argument is odds of getting a 2nd home playoff game increase with the #3 over the #4, I'd say that's pretty minimal. It's just as likely that a #5 or #6 seed could win two games as opposed to the scenario you present above.
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Old 12-13-2012, 01:51 PM   #3
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Old 12-13-2012, 02:08 PM   #4
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If you're sole argument is odds of getting a 2nd home playoff game increase with the #3 over the #4, I'd say that's pretty minimal. It's just as likely that a #5 or #6 seed could win two games as opposed to the scenario you present above.
First off, the odds of #5 and #6 both winning round 1 are not likely. Secondly, the #6 seed could never host a playoff game, they would always be on the road. Same with #5 seed unless they were playing #6 seed but as stated already, that's highly unlikely. So it's not minimal as you suggest. Getting #3 seed is still the goal. I think Denver is the only team that can beat NE in the AFC. I'd rather go there 2nd round (since we will be going there anyway, either round 2 or 3) and get that 2nd home game against the Ravens. The Ravens can beat Houston. I don't say that just because NE blew out the Texans, but they've struggled the last 4 weeks and probably should have lost at least 2 games but probably 3.
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Old 12-13-2012, 02:53 PM   #5
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Meh, I don't care how the seedings end up. All the wishful thinking and hoping isn't going to change anything.

We stomp whoever gets on the way, that's how I see it.
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Old 12-13-2012, 03:21 PM   #6
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Going to NE would not be good, they are the best team in the league right now. We still have a chance at the 1 or 2 seed considering how Houston has been playing.

We would have a far better chance of beating them in Denver than in Boston.
I wouldn't fear traveling to Houston at all.
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Old 12-13-2012, 04:03 PM   #7
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Going to NE would not be good, they are the best team in the league right now. We still have a chance at the 1 or 2 seed considering how Houston has been playing.

We would have a far better chance of beating them in Denver than in Boston.
I wouldn't fear traveling to Houston at all.
We're going to NE one way or another, let's not pretend about that. Even if we get the #2 seed, or #3 seed or #4, we're going to NE. I don't think alot of people realize, we can wish all we want at avoiding a trip to NE but it's just not gonna go down that way. If the Broncos are going to be Superbowl champs this year, they will have to beat Patriots in NE. I'm convinced of that.
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Old 12-13-2012, 04:33 PM   #8
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Unless the probability of you winning the next game is guaranteed, you more than likely want to increase the chance of winning that upcoming game rather than focusing on the game after that.

Ie., lets pretend these are your chances.

Chance of winning vs. NE away = 40%

Chance of winning against Houston away = 60%

Chance of winning vs. Baltimore at home = 80%

Chance of winning vs. Baltimore away = 60%

Chance of Baltimore defeating either New England or Houston = 50% (it should be lower, but this is all just for kicks to demonstrate a point)

Probability of going to the superbowl being the #3 seed (assuming you win the first playoff game) is then:

Play New England away 40% (Times) Play Houston away 60% (times) 50% = 12% ; Play New England away 40% (times) Play Baltimore at home 80% (times) 50% = 16% + 12% = 28%


Probability of going to the superbowl as the #4 seed (assuming we win our first playoff game):

Play Houston 60% (Times) Play New England 40% * .5 = 12% + 60% (Houston) (times) 60% * .5 = 18% = Total of 30%

------------------------------

So as you can see, the first team you play disproportionately affects your chances of winning much more than the second team you play because you dont' know that you'll surely play that second team, so you always plan for whats directly ahead of you.

In this example, you have a 30% chance as the #4 seed and a 28% chance as the #3 seed. This is all assuming that we win the first playoff game for any of this to matter.
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Old 12-13-2012, 05:13 PM   #9
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Quote:
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We're going to NE one way or another, let's not pretend about that. Even if we get the #2 seed, or #3 seed or #4, we're going to NE. I don't think alot of people realize, we can wish all we want at avoiding a trip to NE but it's just not gonna go down that way. If the Broncos are going to be Superbowl champs this year, they will have to beat Patriots in NE. I'm convinced of that.
If they lose one and we don't the NFL won't make us go to NE
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Old 12-13-2012, 05:22 PM   #10
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Off topic . Why do they call john elway the duke
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Old 12-13-2012, 05:47 PM   #11
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Why is everybody so scared of New England? Do you guys believing the team or what? Last time i check NE defense is average at best and our defense is Top 5 i think we can handle them.
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Old 12-13-2012, 05:49 PM   #12
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Bring on the Cheatriots.
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Old 12-13-2012, 05:57 PM   #13
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I don't want to play the patriots in the second round because I'm scared of them and I'd rather see us go as far as possible. I don't think it's likely we beat the pats, so go ahead and delay that game please. pretty simple.
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Old 12-13-2012, 07:23 PM   #14
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Off topic . Why do they call john elway the duke
John Wayne baby!!!!
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Old 12-13-2012, 07:25 PM   #15
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John Wayne baby!!!!
You know manning plays for us. You can find an updated picture with him in a real broncos uni. Not a photoshopped colts one !
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Old 12-13-2012, 07:28 PM   #16
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Off topic . Why do they call john elway the duke
Elway took on 200 punks with two six-shooters. That's 12 dead, and 188 paulbearers. That's why. Da-ha.
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Old 12-13-2012, 07:36 PM   #17
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Off topic . Why do they call john elway the duke
It's a nickname given him by his team mates because he has a hipshot swagger (mostly due to injuries suffered before he ever became a pro) reminiscent of John (The Duke) Wayne.
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Old 12-13-2012, 07:47 PM   #18
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Off topic . Why do they call john elway the duke
His boyhood hero was John Wayne....affectionately known as the Duke. Even used John Wayne as an alias when he was registered in his room during SB XXXIII
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Old 12-14-2012, 12:49 AM   #19
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Well I'm still not giving up for for the #2 seed. NE can still lose to the 49'ers and it's possible that Houston does lose 2 more. I would not have thought so a week ago but they were barely scraping by some teams these past few weeks and then that knock out blow in NE, and those Colts are playing good ball. I think they can take both games. Not super confident they will but I think they can play with them and we'll see what happens. Would that be too friggin cool, to have things go our way and we lock up the #1 seed in the final week, when the Colts beat the Texans for the 2nd time and this week when the 49'ers beat the Patsies. Oh man that would be too cool. Broncos #1 seed. I might have to get HAT a christmas gift if that happens.

3 things we all want this week - Broncos win, Colts win, 49'ers win.

So let it be written, so let it be done.

Last edited by ZONA; 12-14-2012 at 12:52 AM..
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Old 12-14-2012, 03:04 AM   #20
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You are all FoS. They called him the duke because he looked like the blond guy on the Dukes of Hazard and drove the same car.
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Old 12-14-2012, 03:42 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZONA View Post
First off, the odds of #5 and #6 both winning round 1 are not likely.
Read my post again. I clearly said 5 OR 6.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZONA View Post
Secondly, the #6 seed could never host a playoff game, they would always be on the road. Same with #5 seed unless they were playing #6 seed but as stated already, that's highly unlikely.
Where did I say otherwise?

I'm talking about the odds of the 3 or 4 seed getting homefield in the AFC Championship Game. An extra win by the 5 OR 6 team (whichever Denver doesn't face in the first round, obviously) would mean that it doesn't matter if we're the 3 or 4. We'd get the homefield game against them. I'm saying that there really is no difference in odds between a 3 vs a 5 in the Championship game than a 3 vs 4 in the Championship game. Get it?
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Old 12-14-2012, 04:24 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Willynowei View Post
Unless the probability of you winning the next game is guaranteed, you more than likely want to increase the chance of winning that upcoming game rather than focusing on the game after that.

Ie., lets pretend these are your chances.

Chance of winning vs. NE away = 40%

Chance of winning against Houston away = 60%

Chance of winning vs. Baltimore at home = 80%

Chance of winning vs. Baltimore away = 60%

Chance of Baltimore defeating either New England or Houston = 50% (it should be lower, but this is all just for kicks to demonstrate a point)

Probability of going to the superbowl being the #3 seed (assuming you win the first playoff game) is then:

Play New England away 40% (Times) Play Houston away 60% (times) 50% = 12% ; Play New England away 40% (times) Play Baltimore at home 80% (times) 50% = 16% + 12% = 28%


Probability of going to the superbowl as the #4 seed (assuming we win our first playoff game):

Play Houston 60% (Times) Play New England 40% * .5 = 12% + 60% (Houston) (times) 60% * .5 = 18% = Total of 30%

Look at the Big Brain on Brad!!
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Old 12-14-2012, 05:07 AM   #23
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If the Broncos win out, I'd be very surprised if we were the 4th seed. 3rd maybe.. but 13-3 teams don't end up as the 4th seed very often. We just need to concentrate on winning the last 3 games, and everything else will take care of itself. Someone will stumble in the last 3 games. We just don't want it to be us.
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Old 12-14-2012, 06:45 AM   #24
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If the Broncos win out, I'd be very surprised if we were the 4th seed. 3rd maybe.. but 13-3 teams don't end up as the 4th seed very often. We just need to concentrate on winning the last 3 games, and everything else will take care of itself. Someone will stumble in the last 3 games. We just don't want it to be us.
Thats not the argument. If we win out, we are guaranteed the third seed or better. People are just saying that losing might be a hidden blessing in that we won't have to play NE until the 3rd round.

There are too many variables. If we are the 4 seed and NE is the 2, if the 3 seed loses to the 6 seed we play NE any way. NE might end up passing Houston and getting the 1 seed, in which case being the 4 seed we would likely play NE in round 2 anyway (unless the 3 seed got upset).

There is also the assumption that Pitt ends up as the 6 seed as that is where they are right now. Indy has 2 games against Houston. Also, Cinci plays Pitt next week which the winner will likely get the last seed (whether 5 or 6 depends on what Indy does). Jets have an outside shot of getting in if they win out, but it would likely be a tie breaker. They would win the tiebreaker if against Indy, but not against Pitt based on head to head. They also would not win against Cinci based on conference record.

I hope they win out. At worst that is the 3 seed. They might have to play Pitt in the first round and NE in the second, but that is not given. There is also a good chance that get the 1 or 2 seed, NE gets the 1 seed, or they play Cinci/Indy/NY in round 1.
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