Denver is "the rare 8-3 team that has arguably been unlucky."

[Kaylore]

Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic

Well ya, but if there was no offensive fumbles there's no chance of not recovering it. Defense is another story

It's really recovering. We don't recover our own fumbles, losing almost all of them, and we force a lot of fumbles but our opponents almost always get them back. If we got it to 50/50 we'd be destroying teams.

[Bacchus]

Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic

The problem really isn't the lack of recovering a fumble(offense), it's the fact they fumble in the first place

Denver is not fumbling much more than other teams. The problem is that they are not recovering any of their fumbles.

[WolfpackGuy]

It's bad enough they're fumbling to begin with, but they have a real problem/bad luck recovering on both sides of the ball.

[broncocalijohn]

Just shows you that the Broncos limit scores when they lose a fumble and our offense hasn't been a need of the turnover by fumble to win. It is still frustrating but the fact that both sides of the ball are playing pretty solid shows a great team. BUUUUT, those stats are disturbing when an opportunity against great offenses puts the rock on the ground and we rarely get that type of instant stop.

[Kaylore]

What I take away from this is we haven't played our best football yet. I think it will take a loss, maybe even this week, to shock the players into practicing and playing with more of an edge. Whenever that loss comes, hopefully not the playoffs, we'll take things to another level.

[baja]

Originally Posted by Agamemnon

People claiming it's anything but luck are being stupid. Footballs bounce in strange directions and are notoriously hard to secure in the heat of the moment. There is no explanation for our low recovery rate other than the capricious nature of probability.

I give you Franklin's missed recovery opportunity where he fell on the ball with no one near him and somehow it squirted out from between his soft belly and the ground.

[maher_tyler]

Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic

Get some interns. Have those interns hold a football while shadowing the players during the week. Interns randomly fumble the ball at times throughout the week. Players have to respond and recover no matter what they are doing.

Reminds me of the scene from "The Program".

[Agamemnon]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

What I take away from this is we haven't played our best football yet. I think it will take a loss, maybe even this week, to shock the players into practicing and playing with more of an edge. Whenever that loss comes, hopefully not the playoffs, we'll take things to another level.

I've got to say I'd be more confident going into the playoffs at 12-4 than 13-3, even if it means we have to play an extra game. The thought of an 11 game win streak going into the playoffs makes me queazy.

[chickennob2]

Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic

I do think its luck. But what if a player is clearly the only one around the ball, tries picking it up and running before possessing it? Leonhard did that once. There's a small degree of player error that goes into it too.

Yeah, Leonhard did that once.

But if you remember, two snaps after that one, we forced another fumble that was returned for a game changing touchdown. So that one actually worked out pretty well, haha.

[Old Dude]

Denver moves to #1 on CHFF:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...ankings/19692/

[ZONA]

Originally Posted by extralife

yeah, except they've been saying this since week 3. sometimes the coin just lands heads ten times in a row, what are you going to do?

it's also not entirely luck based. we've had people in prime position fall on the ball and not find a way to come up with it. at some point you just have to say that these guys suck at securing the ball.

Yes thank you. It's been utterly disgusting at how many time a Broncos player was in the correct spot, has the ball for a moment, and could not come up with the ball. Many times it wasn't even a player from the other team knocking it away, just a pure blunder by the Broncos player trying to recover the ball. I think the worst of these was the blunder by Franklin. Nobody around him at all. He does the right thing and does not try to pick up the ball. He falls down to the ground and tries to gather the ball and.....well we know the rest.


I mentioned this very thing a few weeks back when I saw a stat that showed the Broncos fumble recovery rate isn't just the worst in the league this year, it's among the worst in history.


Let's hope this gets fixed because we can't be -3 in the turnover battle. If we even recover half of the balls we should have we would be something like +6 or something.

[Bacchus]

Originally Posted by Old Dude

Denver moves to #1 on CHFF:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...ankings/19692/

1. Denver Broncos (8-3) - Denver's lead in the AFC West has now stretched to four games with five to play. Peyton Manning 's passer rating of 104.8 is third among all QB's.

But here's the best part for Broncos fans: Peyton is finally paired with the defense that fans in Indy had always wished for. Denver is No. 1 on our Defensive Hog Index, a key measure of Super Bowl potential. They are No. 2 against the run, No. 3 pressuring the passer, and No. 4 on third-down. Teams that dominate the DHI typically reach the Super Bowl.

[Cito Pelon]

8-3 with a -3 turnover ratio is pretty good.

The other top teams record-wise are all positive in turnover differential:

NE +24 (jebus)
Balt +12
HOU +8
CHI +13
NYG +13
SF +6
GB +5
ATL +3

There's some aberrations in there just like Denver is (Cleveland is +8 for instance, JAX is even, IND is -14, wow)

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/te...ake/league/afc

[Bronco Yoda]

Luck favors the prepared. Makes you wonder whats going on.

[pricejj]

Originally Posted by Bronco Yoda

Luck favors the prepared. Makes you wonder whats going on.

Exactly. It's not "luck" that NE is +24. They are coached to gang tackle and strip the ball. More guys around the ball + guys trying to strip the ball all the time = +24.


IAOFM are morons for trying to preach that it's just pure dumb luck.

[extralife]

Originally Posted by pricejj

Exactly. It's not "luck" that NE is +24. They are coached to gang tackle and strip the ball. More guys around the ball + guys trying to strip the ball all the time = +24.


IAOFM are morons for trying to preach that it's just pure dumb luck.

don't be a moron, IAOFM is not saying turnover differential is luck, they are saying fumble recovery is luck.

though, yes, luck plays a large role in the former as well. look at the huge variations in turnover differential from year to year. San Francisco was +28 last year, they are +6 this year with the exact same team and the exact same coaching staff. It is not luck that Tom Brady never throws interceptions, but there is quite a bit of luck involved in difference between throwing 3 on the year, and throwing, say, 7. As one example.

[Old Dude]

Originally Posted by Bacchus

Denver is No. 1 on our Defensive Hog Index, a key measure of Super Bowl potential. They are No. 2 against the run, No. 3 pressuring the passer, and No. 4 on third-down. Teams that dominate the DHI typically reach the Super Bowl.

Denver is also tied for 4th in the Offensive Hog Index, which is based mainly on average yards per rush attempt, 3d down % and fewest negative passing plays.

No other team ranks that high in the combination of both Hog catagories.

[Kaylore]

Originally Posted by Bacchus

1. Denver Broncos (8-3) - Denver's lead in the AFC West has now stretched to four games with five to play. Peyton Manning 's passer rating of 104.8 is third among all QB's.

But here's the best part for Broncos fans: Peyton is finally paired with the defense that fans in Indy had always wished for. Denver is No. 1 on our Defensive Hog Index, a key measure of Super Bowl potential. They are No. 2 against the run, No. 3 pressuring the passer, and No. 4 on third-down. Teams that dominate the DHI typically reach the Super Bowl.

[Old Dude]

Football Outsiders rank special teams based on a variety of factors. (kick %, return yards, etc.)

They have Denver ranked 8th (unadjusted) and 10th when adjusted for weather and altitude.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst

The two missed FGs by Prater last week probably didn't help, but surprisingly, they moved up one slot - apparently as a result of yardage in the return game and other teams having their own issues as bad weather moves in.

Not surprisingly, Baltimore is ranked #1 and New England is #2. Strangely enough, the Texans are ranked dead last.

Edit: I was curious to see how this stacked up against their ST rankings for Denver in past years. It's the highest the Broncos have been ranked since 2002:

2002: 8th
2003: 23d
2004: 24th
2005: 28th
2006: 15th
2007: 28th
2008: 31st
2009: 18th
2010: 27th
2011: 18th

[cutthemdown]

The highest by quite a bit Old Dude. Amazing how much better the team is. We all knew they were poorly coached when we saw 12 men on the field, defense running around confused pre snap, special teams never being able to contain returners or get returns etc etc.

Elway has done a remarkable job. He's one of those men that just seems to have success in whatever he does.

[baja]

Originally Posted by cutthemdown

The highest by quite a bit Old Dude. Amazing how much better the team is. We all knew they were poorly coached when we saw 12 men on the field, defense running around confused pre snap, special teams never being able to contain returners or get returns etc etc.

Elway has done a remarkable job. He's one of those men that just seems to have success in whatever he does.

Except marriage